His smile betrayed him.

Baseball players, especially professional ones, at all levels of baseball are programmed for humility.  Baseball, at its nature, is a humbling game. A 70% failure rate qualifies one for the Hall of Fame after all.  So ballplayers, outwardly at least, must stay grounded.

Buddy Baumann on the mound for the Naturals. 5/12/13. Photo: Michelle Meade

Buddy Baumann is not a name that most Royals fans would know unless you were buried deep into scouting reports or read every word on Baseball Prospectus.  Saturday night, Baumann made his AAA League debut for the Omaha Storm Chasers. “Along with the strikeouts, I did walk two people. That’s something I need to work on. I need to continue to live around the strike zone,” Baumann said after the 9-4 loss to the Las Vegas 51’s. Baumann faced 8 batters, and struck out four of them with no hits allowed and two walks.

The Storm Chasers are muddling around the .500 mark this year with a roster missing the prospect names that Royals fans used to recognize like Wil Myers and Jake Odorizzi.  This year’s team is struggling to have the same success that the wire-to-wire PCL American-North division winners last year had.  Kansas City isn’t using as many players this year either with their winning ways at the Major League Level.  To date, they’ve only used two players from the AAA Roster, OF David Lough to replace the injured Jarrod Dyson and  LHP Will Smith who was brought up under 26th Man rules for two doubleheaders.

Minor league games are deceptive to watch. While they are still team games that determine a winner and a loser, it is an added level of complexity when you can monitor the upward or downward movement of each player on the field.  The catcher who makes two errors in a game is not only disappointed he affected his team’s chances to win, but also looking over his shoulder at the backup catcher salivating for a window to perform and move up the depth chart.  Such is the case with Adam Moore, who made two costly errors in Friday night’s game, a 7-3 loss to Las Vegas.

A player who can’t get a shot at the next level might work at a different position to increase his marketability, (or tradability) such as the case with Johnny Giavotella, who has been playing games at third after he failed to win the Major League second base job with Kansas City.

Baumann was one of those players in the middle of the organization’s depth chart.  Drafted in the 7th round of the 2009 draft out of Missouri State, Bauman, a lefty, showed good command at all levels, but lacked the name recognition of other arms in the Royals’ system like MIke Montgomery, Jake Odorizzi or Yordano Ventura.  Baumann pitched the last two years at the Double A Northwest Arkansas level and was moderately impressive with a 1.3 WHIP and an ERA over 4.00 in the Texas League. He also was the organization’s 2010 Mike Sweeney Award Winner for the best representation on and off the field by his work in the community.

Baumann was due to break camp with the AAA team when he was injured trying to avoid a collision and started the season on the Disabled List.  Unable to break camp with a club, Baumann was reactivated last week, but back down at the AA level.  Players could easily be stuck down in AA for the rest of the season in an event like this.

As is the case with any non-phenom in the Minors, getting to the next level is a combination of dedication and luck.  When Jarrod Dyson turned his ankle in Anaheim last week, David Lough was called up from the Storm Chasers creating a hole for Baumann.

Buddy Baumann walking off the field after a three inning performance. 5/12/13. Photo: Michelle Meade

“I was happy to see him back up here,” said Mike Jirschele, manager of the Storm Chasers. Baumann got the call while he was with the NWA Naturals and within hours of arriving back in Omaha, he reunited with his wife and Jirschele wasted no time getting him into the game.  “I liked how we went right at hitters. He did have the two walks, but he’s going to get the ball a lot up here.”

But Baumann’s smile in his postgame interview told the rest of the story.  “I was pumped when that phone call came.  Two nights ago when I got that call I was ecstatic.”  In AAA, the spotlight is brighter and continued good outings will likely catch the attention of the Royals.  When asked what Buddy needs to do to get up to Kansas City, in true baseball player form, he said, “I need to throw strikes.”

Minor league baseball is a tough, tough endeavor.  The days are long, the work is hard and there are few moments that you can truly feel great about your position in the organization.  But a two-inning, four strikeout performance in your AAA debut will be one of those moments for Buddy Baumann.  Baumann knows there is still much work to be done. He does have to limit his walks and continue to pound the strike zone.  And all those other little things in order to make the jump from triple A to the Big Leagues.

But you needn’t hear him tell the story.  His smile tells it all.

May 8, 2013; Houston, TX, USA; Houston Astros second baseman Jose Altuve (27) and right fielder Brandon Barnes (2) celebrate defeating the Los Angeles Angels in the ninth inning at Minute Maid Park. The Astros won 3-1. Mandatory Credit: Thomas Campbell-USA TODAY Sports

Kansas City concludes its six-game road trip in Houston after two series on the west coast through Anaheim and Oakland. The Royals will face the newest American League team in the Astros so we thought it be appropriate to chat with Climbing Tal’s Hill senior editor Greg Thurston.

Kings of Kauffman – How have fans adjusted to new play-by-play voice Robert Ford who use to host the pre and post game on Royals flagship?

Climbing Tal’s Hill – I can’t speak for all fans but I think Ford has done a good job. His delivery is smooth and accurate but he has a few “go to” terms that he repeats too often. I think he will get better with experience and we at CTH like him because he was kind enough to come on our podcast.

KOK – Houston not only is making the jump to the AL but to one of the tougher divisions how are fans adjusting?

CTH – Fans were not at all happy about the move and some have gone as far as boycotting the team. The transition has been tough for both the team and the fans.

KOK – Follow-up to question two, were fans in favor/liking being in the AL long term?

CTH – Short answer: no. But after kicking and screaming in the beginning, I have actually come around. It gives us a chance to see a lot of great teams and players that we didn’t get to see in the National League.

KOK – Who are the starters this coming week and Royals fans should look at?

CTH – Left-hander Dallas Keuchel gets the start on Monday. Keuchel has bounced between AAA and the majors a couple of times this season but has pitched well in his last two starts. Bud Norris is slated to start Tuesday. Norris left his last start with back spasms so it’s hard to say what we should expect from him. If he can’t get deep into the game look for Paul Clemens or Jose Cisnero to work in long relief. Jordan Lyles goes on Wednesday. Since being called up, Lyles has had three decent starts and one bad one. The Astros will be looking for him to get past the fifth inning, something he has yet to do this season.

KOK – Series predictions?

CTH – I’m going to predict the Royals will win games one and three with Guthrie and Shields on the mound. The Astros should be able to take the middle game against Wade Davis.

Here’s the other part of the Q&A at Climbing Tal’s Hill

Pitching Match-ups and game times –

Monday: Jeremy Guthrie v. (5-1, 2.82) v. Dallas Keuchel (0-1, 4.82), 7:05 pm/FSKC & 610 Sports
Tuesday:  Wade Davis (3-3, 5.98) v. Bud Norris (4-4, 4.32), 7:05 pm/FSKC & 610 Sports
Wednesday:  James Shields (2-4, 2.45) v. Jordan Lyles (1-1, 6.63), 7:05 pm/FSKC & 610 Sports

I started the year trying to be less reactionary to how the Royals performed. Daniel Wesley on Twitter characterized a lot of reactions to Royals games by describing wins as parades and losses as meltdowns. I think that’s apt, as I recall the Royals losing two games in Chicago and many Royals fans reacting as if the sky was falling. Later, the Royals were 17-10 and another group (with some overlap) was ready to put down playoff ticket deposits.

May 17, 2013; Oakland, CA, USA; Kansas City Royals designated hitter Billy Butler (16) throws his bat after popping out against the Oakland Athletics during the ninth inning at O.Co Coliseum. The Oakland Athletics defeated the Kansas City Royals 2-1. Mandatory Credit: Ed Szczepanski-USA TODAY Sports

I’ve been able to stay out of those swings for the most part. That doesn’t mean I’m not invested in the games or the results, but I think the teeth-gnashing, end-of-the-world goes too far, and I think the “we won’t lose again” crowd goes too far the other way. Teams lose games. Teams lose games they should have won. This happens every year, to every team, ever.

But the last two games are testing my patience.

The Royals invested heavily in this season. They added $12 million in payroll in snagging Ervin Santana from the Angels, a move that really shouldn’t have had long-term implications attached to it. The Royals didn’t get him with the idea of extending him (or I don’t think they had). They signed Jeremy Guthrie to a three-year deal, a pretty good move for this year (at just $5 million) but with two extra years. Then they made the big move, trading their top prospect (Wil Myers), a former top prospect (Mike Montgomery), and another darn good prospect (Jake Odorizzi) for James Shields and Wade Davis.

All three pitchers have been as advertised or better. Shields has pitched like the Ace Dayton Moore claimed him to be at the time of the trade. Santana has surprised just about everyone. Guthrie has been solid. And over the last two games, Shields and Santana were great with the exception of a couple of batters.

And the frustration comes from the fact that they shouldn’t have to fear one or two mistakes making the difference in the game. If fans are this frustrated, I can’t imagine what they feel, even if they’d never say anything. I’ve talked about Shields’s lack of run support before, but Santana has seen his team score 21 runs in his eight starts. Over his last three, he’s taken the loss after the Royals scored just three runs. Then just two runs. And last night just one.

This after the Royals had put up only one run in Shields’s start at Oakland. They both lost 2-1.

Basically, if Shields or Santana give up three or more runs lately, the Royals are likely to lose (even though, oddly, the Royals have won  a game when he’d given up four runs and three runs).

That falls on the offense. Alex Gordon, Lorenzo Cain, and Salvador Perez have been good. Alcides Escobar started out hitting, and hasn’t lately. Eric Hosmer and Mike Moustakas are lost (and I think I’ve been among the more patient in regards to both of them). Billy Butler is making his way back. Right field and second base are pits.

The Royals biggest offensive acquisition was Miguel Tejada, who hadn’t even played in the majors in 2012.

They’ve shown some signs. In Baltimore they got some homers. Against the Angels, they showed more patience. But those are exceptions, not trends. They’re last in homers. They’re last in walks. So if they aren’t putting together a bunch of singles, they aren’t scoring.

And despite all of that, they’re still 20-19 going into Sunday’s game. It feels strange to be a game above .500 and feel like the bottom is going to drop out – this is the Royals after all – but that’s the feeling. As has been pointed out by Sam Mellinger, we’ve seen this before and the sequels to horror stories generally end in similar ways to the original. The Royals are 3-9 in their last 12 games.

There’s a point where it just gets old. Where optimism is just lying to yourself. When the best pitchers on the team don’t offer hope because you can’t figure the offense is going to fall apart again. I don’t want to be resigned to that. I want to feel good watching them play, but at some point, even the most patient fan can find themselves going Randy Quaid on their team.

I’m not there yet. But…

The Royals had been mum about his condition at first, but he’s since headed back to Kansas City for an MRI and the early prognosis is that he’ll be ready for a return in 2-to-4 weeks. High ankle sprains can be tricky, and the Royals don’t want Dyson to rush back and re-injure himself. Dyson, at least, is in good spirits:

Thanks everyone for the love, mrzoombiya will be ok and will have a healthy return soon, I want to wish my team the best of luck on the road

— JarrodDyson (@mrzoombiya) May 17, 2013

David Lough filled in fine in his first game back in the big leagues, going 2-4 with the Royals only RBI and he offered an outfield assist on a Brandon Moss double attempt. If the Royals are going to continue to split time between Jeff Francoeur and a left-handed bat, Lough’s first game is at least encouraging.

Jorge Bonifacio with Wilmington in their 2013 home opener (Jen Nevius).

Speaking of right field, key Royals prospect Jorge Bonifacio will be on the shelf for 6-to-8 weeks with a broken bone in his hand. That pauses what was turning into a big season in High A Wilmington, as Bonifacio – ranked sixth among Royals prospects by Baseball America – had a .325/.404/.452 line in 34 games in the Carolina League. With Wil Myers traded and Bubba Starling a level lower and struggling, he’s the next impact outfield prospect the Royals have (or was prior to the injury).

Bonifacio turns 20 years old next month, so the injury doesn’t throw him way off track, but a you still want a top prospect to be on the field rather than recuperating. He’s got an advanced approach for his age and makes good contact. With a few mechanical tweaks, he may turn into a bigger power hitter, as well.

Finally, the only other two Kansas City Royals on the disabled list aside from Dyson are Danny Duffy and Felipe Paulino. Both are on the rehab track after Tommy John surgery last summer.

Duffy recently threw a four inning simulated game on May 16th and continues to do other workouts. Paulino threw a three inning game on the 17th and a four inning game is his next step. It also appears that both pitchers are going on a normal rest schedule to get in line with a regular starting schedule. Duffy’s surgery occurred on June 13th. Paulino’s was on July 3rd. Typically, it’s at least 11 months for a pitcher to come back to regular game action after tearing their UCL. Duffy’s velocity was back into the mid-90s earlier this month, so he may not miss a beat when he comes back.

First, let’s recall the Greinke bullpen move success.  He moved to the bullpen after leaving baseball for awhile and was quite good out of the pen for the Royals in 2007.  He went from a guy with a low 90s fastball to a mid 90s guy who could reach back and get a 97 or 98 when needed.  In 2008 when he headed back into the rotation, Greinke lost some of the velocity that he showed in the pen, which is to be expected, but his overall velocity was improved from his time before the switch.  Now his fastball was sitting 93 or so and he still showed the ability to go up and hit 96 or 97 at times.  Wade Davis showed the velocity gain in his transition to relief, but this year has not been able to maintain any of the gains when starting again.

The Fangraphs velocity chart may show something even worse.  Last year Davis’ fastball averaged 93.7 MPH, and toward the end of the year was sitting above 95 consistently.  This also lead to a massive spike in strike out rate from 5.14K/9 in 2011 to 11.13 last year.  Looking at this year, his velocity is back down to an average fastball just above 91 MPH.  That is his lowest average ever.  Now it does show that his velocity tends to tick up a bit as the season wears on as a starter and as a reliever, so maybe he will be 92 to 93 in the middle of summer.  If that happens though, that would be more in line with 2010 and 11 when he was a back of the rotation guy at best, and his strike out rate this year is showing the same sitting at 6.64 per 9.

There has been a major change to his pitch mix.  He has been using a cutter that he hadn’t thrown in the past.  Davis has thrown the cutter 16 to 19 percent of the time and so his two and four seam fastballs have been used a lot less.  None of his pitches have done very well based on pitch values and most of this comes from an increased line drive and home run rate.  One of the problems with the cutter, in my opinion anyway, is that it might make his change up less effective.  The speed differential between the two pitches is only about 2 MPH, 88 down to 86, so the batters may not be thrown off by the change at all.  Part of that might also be because his change has been on average 1 MPH faster than last year too.

For Davis to be effective like last year something is going to need to change.  Right now he looks way too much like the bad Wade Davis that Tampa Bay took out of their rotation and nothing like the good Wade Davis they had in their bullpen last year.  The answer is probably not as simple as getting away from the cutter, but that may be one place to start.  Hopefully as summer comes his velocity will come back as it has before and help some, but it would be nice to see him show some signs that the successes of 2012 in the pen can be moved into the starting role.

Upon further review, however, the way in which Gordon is putting up those stats is unlike any other in his career.

Mandatory Credit: Peter G. Aiken-USA TODAY Sports

Gordon’s on-base percentage sits at .353, which is right around his career average. But when you remember that his batting average is only 23 points lower than that, you see that Gordon is actually not excelling in that department. Prior to this season, the smallest separation between his AVG and OBP was 67 points, in his rookie season. In that 2007 campaign, Gordon put up a walk percentage of 6.8, which, prior to this season, was the lowest of his career, by far.

Gordon’s current walk percentage? A paltry 3.6.

In 167 plate appearances, Gordon has drawn 6 walks. For comparison, Alcides Escobar, a player who has never been fond of taking a walk, has already received 7 free passes in 165 plate appearances. Mike Moustakas, who has never posted a double digit walk percentage, not even in the minor leagues, has twice as many walks as Gordon this year in almost 30 fewer plate appearances.

So what is it that has transformed Gordon’s walking ability into that of Jeff Francoeur?

One way to attempt to explain it is by looking at how many strikes Gordon is seeing in his at bats. According to pitch f/x data, Gordon sees pitches in the strike zone 49.3% of the time. That number is basically right in line with the major league average and his own career average, so it’s not that he’s seeing more strikes. Since we know he’s seeing the same percentage of strikes, we can correctly assume that his reduced walk rate can be in part due to him swinging at a greater percentage of pitches overall. To put it simply, swinging at more pitches means you generally will not walk as often. His 2013 Swing% is 45.8, which is the highest it’s been since his rookie year. Still, his career average in that category is 44.8, so it is tough to see how that alone could cause such a drastic drop in his walk percentage.

The real differences can be seen when you break his Swing% down based on whether the balls he swings at are in or out of the strike zone. Gordon’s Z-Swing% (percentage of balls in the strike zone the batter swings at) sits at 59.5, which is the lowest of his career by 1.5 percentage points. His O-Swing% (percentage of balls out of the strike zone the batter swings at) is 32.5. Excluding his rookie season (31.3), the next highest O-Swing% of his career was 27.8.

Basically, Gordon is swinging at fewer strikes, while also swinging at many more balls. That, my friends, is not a recipe for success. Unless, of course, you’re Alex Gordon in 2013.

Somehow, Gordon has combined uncharacteristically poor plate discipline with fewer line drives and more ground balls than his career averages to produce a stat line like that of a player deserving of an All-Star bid. Oh, and did I mention that he’s destroying left-handed pitching, too?

For his career, Gordon has averaged .250/.320/.406 against lefties. This season, he’s hitting .424/.443/.644 when facing southpaws. Granted, that’s in only 61 plate appearances, but still, that’s really, really good. It’s also really, really strange.

Mandatory Credit: Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports

Looking for another excellent part of Gordon’s 2013 season so far? How about his “clutch” stats? He is currently batting .441/.459/.676 with runners in scoring position. In late and close situations, Gordon has a .964 OPS. In high leverage situations, he’s got an OPS of 1.032. I’m not totally hip to these things, but I think the kids today* would say that this year’s Gordon has “the clutch gene.”

I don’t care if I’m not old enough to say that. West coast road trips always make me feel older than I actually am.

With all of these weird statistical anomalies in Gordon’s season, at least we know his defense is still solid. Or is it?

In Gordon’s two Gold Glove seasons of 2011 and 2012, he posted UZRs of 12.2 and 14.6, respectively. This year, his UZR is -0.7. Of course, defensive metrics should be taken with a grain of salt anyway, particularly in such small sample sizes, so the negative defensive value Gordon has supposedly provided is nothing more than something to chuckle about. I mean, Francoeur has a UZR of 1.2, and he plays right field with a piano on his back and cleats full of lead.

But what do we make of all the other statistical abnormalities?

I personally find it hard to believe Gordon won’t start walking at a higher rate at some point this season. Players in their prime normally don’t just lose all knowledge of the strike zone out of the blue. I don’t know if he’ll get all the way up to his career average BB% of 9.6, but I do think some improvement will come. And if Gordon is hoping to maintain his high level of production, he is going to need that walk rate to climb. His current BABIP is .392, and even though Gordon hits the ball hard enough to maintain an above average BABIP, we have to expect some regression with his batting average. If he can start walking a bit more, a drop in his average won’t hurt much since his OBP will remain strong.

I would also expect some regression to the mean when Gordon faces lefties. Hopefully that will be countered by an improvement in his line versus right handers, though. His current OPS against righties is roughly 75 points lower than his career average, so it stands to reason that Gordon could maintain his overall numbers while his reverse split begins to normalize. Similarly, Gordon likely won’t be able to keep up his torrid pace of hitting with runners in scoring position, but his numbers with the bases empty probably won’t stay as low, either (currently .638 OPS, vs his career number of .788). The overall effect of the regression should be relatively neutral.

While he’s doing it in a somewhat odd fashion, Gordon is having another extremely good season. He should be an All-Star this year, and he will probably be deserving of getting some top 5 MVP votes after the season is over. That’s assuming, of course, Gordon listens to his manager’s plea for a more patient approach.

That’s an unfair comparison, of course. Trout and Harper look like generational talents and while Starling has incredible tools and athleticism, he’s lacking in polish and experience. Those were significant questions when he was drafted and they exist still today.

Humberto Arteaga, Elier Hernandez and Bubba Starling wait for their turn in the cage. Photo: Michelle Meade

But the Royals are looking at a potential solution that they hope will improve Starling’s development and performance. Reports are that Starling is heading back to Kansas City to be reevaluated by an ophthalmologist to determine if he’s a candidate for LASIK surgery.

There are some that may think that this is a desperation move by the Royals to make something happen, but given the context of Starling’s weaknesses, it’s a legitimate and appropriate option to explore. Jason Parks, the prospect guru at Baseball Prospectus, has seen Starling multiple times, and wrote an extensive report on his development with the thesis that Starling lacks some of the automatic pitch recognition abilities that athletes who had played baseball exclusively or more regularly earlier in their careers. Starling, a multi-sport superstar in high school, turned down a football scholarship to Nebraska to sign with the Royals and also played basketball at Gardner-Edgerton High School. Baseball wasn’t his only sport (and some may suspect not his best either).

So given that conclusion, LASIK surgery could help Starling immensely. J.J. Picollo mentioned that Starling has had trouble seeing the ball well at night and Parks has observed him having trouble against right-handed pitchers in recognizing pitches.

This isn’t the first time the Royals have gone down this road. In 2009, Eric Hosmer had LASIK surgery while recovering from a finger injury. According to a Dick Kaegel article, he’d already tried glasses and the adjustment wasn’t smooth. In August, he was hurt, so he had the procedure done, came back for two games in September and hit the Arizona Fall League. He had hit .241/.334/.361 in the 2009 season across both A ball levels. In 2010, after the surgery, he hit .354/.429/.545 and had 42 extra base hits in 87 Carolina League games. Do you credit a healthy hand, LASIK or both?

I think it certainly helped, and I think the procedure will help Starling. But there’s no guarantee. There are studies to suggest that in younger patients, due to continuing growth of the cornea, the procedure’s benefits can regress within just a couple of years. One such involved a high school junior who had LASIK surgery but her age required undercorrection and she needed a second procedure after trouble reading at the end of college. Many ophthalmologists want to wait for a patient to be 21 years old and/or with stable eye refraction. Bubba Starling turns 21 in August. Hosmer’s procedure two months before he’d turn 20.

With that in mind, I think it’s reasonable to say that Starling will see some improvement, but it’s possible that he’ll need a second procedure down the line (and perhaps Hosmer is due for one as well, given that he’s struggled for a while now and is a handful of years removed from his surgery). It’s a safe procedure and has a quick recovery time, so there isn’t the threat of missing much time if Starling goes through with the surgery.

And he’s got a good shot of coming back better than ever.

May 15, 2013; Anaheim, CA, USA; Kansas City Royals center fielder Jarrod Dyson (1) walks off the field after he was injured trying to catch Los Angeles Angels first baseman Mark Trumbo (not pictured) homer in the eighth inning at Angel Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Robert Hanashiro-USA TODAY Sports

The Royals haven’t provided an official update on Dyson’s condition, and with an off day between series, there were no pregame media sessions to talk with Ned Yost. The clues point towards a Dyson DL stint, though.*

First, Dyson’s best asset is his speed. If his ankle is hurt, he can’t utilize that weapon and it limits his ability to contribute. It makes sense to sit him for two weeks and let him fully recover, then come back at full strength than to try to manage the injury and either aggravate it, get subpar results or have him overcompensate and hurt something else.

Second, David Lough wasn’t in the lineup in tonight’s Triple A matchup between Omaha and Las Vegas. Then Minda Haas noted that he wasn’t even in the dugout and Lee Warren heard from Storm Chasers manager Mike Jirschele that Lough was out for a “potential call up“. Bob Dutton all but confirmed all of this later on Twitter.

Dyson was starting to take playing time from Jeff Francoeur and taking advantage of it. Ned Yost says they weren’t heading for a platoon between Dyson and Francoeur, but it was sure starting to look that way. Dyson was hitting .268/.286/.561 (!) in 42 plate appearances in 2013 and has matched Francoeur in extra base hits in a third of the at bats. The defense benefits with Dyson in the game, as Lorenzo Cain is a more favorable option than Francoeur in right, with a strong enough arm for the position but significantly better range.

Lough was hitting .340/.393/.477 in 171 plate appearances for Omaha. He spent all of last September up with the big league club, hitting .237/.292/.305 in 20 games. If he does come up (as expected) it’s not certain if the Royals will still split time as they had been, but Kansas City will face Oakland right-hander Jarrod Parker tomorrow. If Lough (a lefty) is in the lineup, that could be a signal that they’ll keep rolling with the not-platoon-that-is-basically-a-platoon.

*UPDATE: The Royals have now officially made the move, according to Bob Dutton.

What’s a manager to do?  Mandatory Credit: Rick Osentoski-USA TODAY Sports

For all the talk of Ned Yost tinkering with lineups, and yeah…when you score 11 runs one night, you might want to just go ahead and stick with that…some of the blame has to be placed squarely on the shoulders of Dayton Moore. When will we have a player hit the big leagues and become an instant star? So far, under the Moore regime, it’s yet to happen, and we could be waiting a while.

Somewhere along the way – either in the scouting and draft day decisions, or in post-draft development, there is some kind of breakdown happening. At first, it looked like it was just the pitching. When that started falling apart, we still had the bats to look forward to: Mike Moustakas, Wil Myers, Eric Hosmer, Johnny Giavotella, and so on. The future looked bright. Well…the future is now, and it’s very possibly not as bright as we’d hoped.

Myers is gone of course, as part of the big James Shields trade. That’s fine. I’m on board with that move. While we won’t reap the benefits of Myers’ bat here in KC, he may never pan out at all, and in the meantime, we’ve got at least two seasons of an ace pitcher. I’m okay with that. My philosophy with prospects is simple: you need them to help your big league club improve. Whether that means they physically do so, or they bring back other players via trade that help…I’m okay with either. Myers developed enough to fetch us a legit ace and a guy in Wade Davis with the potential to be a pretty solid starter himself.

But Moose, Hosmer, and Giavotella…well…they aren’t helping much. At all. And prize homegrown draft pick Bubba Starling is hitting .213 through 35 games in Low A ball. And Christian Colon, the first round pick, who was thought to be a safe bet, is batting .226 through 30 games in Omaha this year. And…well…you get the point.

So where’s the problem? Scouting? Draft strategy? Player development? It’s hard to pin down, and honestly is probably a combination of all three, but there’s definitely something going very wrong between draft day and what happens on the way to the big leagues. If they even make it to the big leagues.

So…you can see where Yost might struggle with the lineup, given that a good chunk of the core players are not living up to their hype. What about Alex Gordon and Billy Butler. Absolutely…they are great players. Drafted by Allard Baird. Lorenzo Cain and Alcides Escobar? Sure. I’ll give the Royals a little credit here. They came over in the Zack Greinke trade, so technically the Milwaukee Brewers mostly developed them, but the Royals did stick with Escobar through some ups and downs in 2011, and he blossomed last season as an all-around player. I guess he was kind of developed by the Royals.

We love George, but fans are getting tired of having to “remember when”…Mandatory Credit: Rick Scuteri-USA TODAY Sports

All that said, I was watching a replay of George Brett’s Hall of Fame induction speech earlier – happy birthday George – and he said something that struck a chord with me. He was talking about Whitey Herzog coming over to manage the Royals, and how Herzog told Brett “You’re going to play third and hit third every day” and what a boost of confidence that gave. So…while the batters are scuffling in the here and now, and running so hot and cold you never know what to expect, maybe it’s time to try the Herzog route. Tell these guys that no matter what, here’s the lineup. No more shuffling Cain from leadoff to second to fifth to sixth. No more “where should Gordon hit?” Just pick a spot. First? Great. Third? Fine.

Some will argue that Yost and the organization have been too patient with some of these guys. But this is the team we’ve got, for better or worse. And hey…don’t get me wrong, I think Moose and Hosmer will probably still be really good ballplayers. It might be later rather than sooner (remember how long it took Gordon to hit his stride), and if that’s the case, this year likely won’t turn out the way team officials and fans envisioned. But remember, when you’re criticizing Yost, he’s not been given the ideal roster to work with here. Ned’s the easy target, of course…but we’ve got to look past the day-to-day management of the big league roster and figure out what’s going wrong with player development, or this fan base will continue facing year after year of frustration.

And yes, I titled this article with the thought of a new season of Arrested Development about to air on Netflix, so go waste 10 minutes. Enjoy.

White had been broadcasting alongside Hall of Famer Denny Mathews since 1973 when he was let go in 1998 and replaced by Ryan Lefebvre, but Royals fans, fifteen years after his last call for the Royals, still remember him fondly.

The thing about following a team, especially over a long stretch of time, is the familiarity you gain from the day to day attention to games. For countless hours, the same voices are invited into your living room, office, garage, or what have you. The players change, sometimes even the stadium, but when you’re lucky, the same voices remain.

For me, I remember summers where my life was wrapped up in summer rec league baseball, mowing lawns, riding bikes and Denny and Fred calling the Royals. There, after the Guys Snacks and Kansas City Life commercials, White would read the lineups, call the action, and tell the story with Mathews. I’ve never met Fred White, but by all accounts he was a great friend and person. His passing feels similar to that of Paul Splittorff two years ago, even though White was farther removed from the booth than Splittorff had been before he left us.

Numerous Royals fans expressed their appreciation for White after the news came out (many others popped up in a Facebook thread as well), and many of us share the same sentiments and memories:

Fred, The world is a better place because you were in it.

— Steve Physioc (@StevePhysioc) May 15, 2013

Rest In Peace Fred White. Your voice will always remain in my mind, as a part of endless joyful, youthful, summer memories. — Nate Bukaty (@nate_bukaty) May 15, 2013

In the background of some of our old Super 8 reels is Denny and Fred calling #Royals games. Literally the soundtrack of my childhood @royals — Daniel Wesley (@DanielSWesley) May 15, 2013

Sad to hear about Fred White. If you grew up in KC, Denny and Fred were pretty much summer.

— Rustin Dodd (@rustindodd) May 15, 2013

#RIPFredWhite A generation of the #Royals franchise fading. Will be remembered fondly…

— anonymous bosch (@theshortandlong) May 15, 2013

The way Fred White read the starting lineups was beautiful. My favorite thing about him. — Brian McGannon (@BrianMcGannon) May 15, 2013

RIP Fred White, who passed away from melanoma, same as Paul Splittorff did. I regret never getting the opportunity to meet either man. — Rany Jazayerli (@jazayerli) May 15, 2013

I loved listening to Fred call #Royals games on the radio. Losing sucks, but it’s made easier by great broadcasters.

— Kevin Agee (@Kevin_Agee) May 15, 2013

A transistor radio, Fred and Denny calling a Royals game, and summer — the perfect baseball storm.

— Lee Warren (@OmahaBaseball) May 15, 2013

This. “@wudaddy45: @chriskamler @royals On many summer nights with a hidden radio under my pillow, Fred and Denny were my baseball lullaby.”

— Chris Kamler (@ChrisKamler) May 15, 2013

September nights… West coast baseball… Pennant races… Fred White was half my bedtime soundtrack. Thank you, Fred. For everything.

— Craig Brown (@royalsauthority) May 15, 2013

You must listen to White’s call after the Royals had won Game 6 of the 1985 World Series. Starting at the 10:28 mark, Denny talks about destiny and White puts the perfect touch on it at the end (hat tip to Lee Warren for finding this and passing it along on Twitter):

The Royals honored White’s memory the same way they did Splittorff’s two years ago – with a half inning of silence.

#Royals dedicate first half-inning to silence to honor Fred White. Pretty cool.

— Greg Hall (@greghall24) May 16, 2013

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From the chart you can see that the Royals have mostly been scoring well above or well below their average.  With an average of slightly below four and a half and a fairly normal distribution you would expect the most common outcome of a game to be in the four or five run categories, the two closest to average.  That is not the case.  The most common out come is three runs or two runs, and six and nine have happened more often than four and five.  This is a pretty skewed distribution.

Last year the distribution did have some of the same characteristics if you look at the next chart, but there were a lot more four run games, and a maximum of 11, which the Royals have already matched and exceeded this year.  The five, six, and seven run games last year showed up more often than one or two run games, but so far this year they only equal the two run game total.  What this says to the optimist and statistician in me is that as our sample of games for 2013 grows, this distribution will become more normally distributed.  For that to happen it would mean a lot more four to seven run games in lieu of one to three run games.  Also, the Royals have a winning record (dead on their Pythagorean expectation to boot) despite all of the low scoring games, so this could indicate a lot of good to come.

March 12, 2013; Phoenix, AZ, USA; Kansas City Royals coach George Brett before a spring training game against the Oakland Athletics at Phoenix Municipal Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Rick Scuteri-USA TODAY Sports

I, like many a Royals fan, grew up with George Brett in mind as the quintessential ballplayer.

I remember reading a quote from before his playing days were over about how he envisioned his last at bat as a big leaguer:

I want to hit a routine grounder to second and run all out to first base, then get thrown out by a half step. I want to leave an example to the young guys that that’s how you play the game: ALL OUT.

July 8, 2012; Kansas City, MO, USA; Major League Baseball legend and former Kansas City Royals player George Brett at bat during the 2012 Legends and Celebrity softball game at Kauffman Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports

Say what you want about grit, moxie, the intangibles. They’re overrated and overemphasized when the player isn’t actually that good. They’re offered as a consolation. “Well he can’t hit but look at him get dirty!” George Brett wasn’t that player. He was down the line on the close plays and looking for a spot to turn a double into a triple on the gappers. That’s a hell of an example to a young kid in the midwest and I always felt kind of okay with my last organized baseball at bat being a grounder to second where I ran all the way through. It fit after years of following Brett’s career.

But c’mon. I’m not alone. There are hundreds of kids named Brett in Kansas City who are graduating high school or college today simply because their parents were caught up in Brett-mania in his heyday. I’m pretty sure he really could have outdrawn Jimmy Carter in the 1980 election.

May 15th is George Brett’s birthday – his 60th – and for all the scatalogical references, the weird spring training interviews, and the stories of busted clubhouse sinks, he’s the player I would look to when I needed an example of how to play the game.

So I’ve promised some trivia, and below is a table showing what George Brett’s batting average on his birthday every year as a big leaguer as well as what he had hit on the day of the occasion in each season. In many cases, Brett was injured and thus, did not play on his birthday, so in the 20 possible years, he only played in 12 possible birthday games, and one of those days was a double header (though he did go a combined 4-9 that day).

Happy Birthday #5. Lay off the crab legs…

Apr 12, 2013; Kansas City, MO, USA; Kansas City Royals catcher Salvador Perez (13) drives in a run with a single in the first inning against the Toronto Blue Jays at Kauffman Stadium. Mandatory Credit: John Rieger-USA TODAY Sports

I start with an observation and a statistic. The Royals see very few pitches; that’s the observation. Here is the statistic. They see 3.75 pitches per plate appearance, which is next to last in the American League; the Angels are last at 3.74.* Of course, conventional wisdom states that the more pitches a team sees the better. It means the other team has to burn through pitchers more quickly, allowing the patient team to face the opposing team’s bullpen more often. Typically, bullpen pitchers aren’t as good as starting pitchers, which is why they are in the bullpen. Seeing more pitches also allows hitters to understand a pitcher’s stuff better, thus, giving those hitters a better chance at the plate. The top five teams in P/PA are Boston, Oakland, Minnesota, Cleveland, and Toronto. Four of those teams rank above league average in runs scored per game with Cleveland, Oakland, and Boston scoring 5.09, 4.79, and 4.76 R/G respectively.

*All stats in this post come from before the first game of the Angels series.

Digging a little deeper into the numbers, it’s fairly easy to see why the Royals see so few pitches: 1) The Royals swing at 47.7 percent of pitches, second only to the Angels; 2) They make contact with 81.2 percent of pitches they swing at, which is fourth in the AL; 3) They swing at 32.4 percent of pitches outside the strike zone and make contact with those pitches 72.2 percent of the time. That’s tops in the league. From this data we get a picture that our eyes probably already began constructing as we watched the games. The Royals swing at a lot of pitches, but they don’t strike out that much. Instead, they put a lot of balls in play. This might be ok if it were true that all balls in play are created equal, but as has been one of my battles for at least two years against the notion that BABIP is a matter of “luck,” all batted balls are not created equally. This data hints at that. The Royals make contact with a lot of balls outside the strike zone. Some of those are fouled off. Some of those drop as hits, but a large majority of those are put in play weakly for outs. To state it simply, the Royals put too many balls in play. They put balls in play that should be left alone.

This doesn’t just include balls out of the strike zone. It also includes pitcher’s pitches, balls placed on the corners and low. These are tough pitches that make hitting safely difficult. If a hitter swings at a pitcher’s pitch, he is most likely going to miss it or put it in play weakly. We already know the Royals actually don’t swing and miss much, only 8.7 percent, which is ninth in the American League (Jeff Francoeur be damned). Instead, they put the ball in play weakly a lot.

It’s an interesting and incredibly frustrating combination. The Royals swing at pitches they shouldn’t, but instead of striking out at an Astros-like rate, they simply hit weak ground balls to the second baseman. Of course, it seems like striking out is worse, but maybe we shouldn’t take that for granted. If Francoeur swings at a pitch outside the strike zone on the first pitch and hits a weak ground ball to second, that’s one pitch and one out. If he swings and misses at three bad pitches, that’s three pitches and one out. Sure, his ball in play gave him the slight chance to get on base (error, infield single, bloop hit, weak ground ball through the infield). But it also cost him two pitches. It’s not a coincidence that starting pitchers go deep against the Royals. The only way they have of running up pitch counts is to get a lot of hits because they don’t see enough pitches otherwise.

So, if I had to boil their philosophy down into a few words it would go like this: When you see a pitch you think you can hit, hit it. Simplified, but it seems like this is how they approach hitting. This is, in fact, a bad philosophy. It discounts all the benefits that come from seeing more pitches for the belief that one may get the best pitch to hit early in the count. It’s actually predicated on fear, a fear of missing out on the pitch early in the count that would have been the best one to hit. This scenario plays out all the time in real life when people decide to settle for something they can hit instead of waiting, gathering more information, and hitting the pitch they should hit. Why is this bad? Because more information is almost always better than less information i.e. seeing what a pitcher is throwing and understanding it is better than not. Plus, pitchers live to exploit hitters willing to swing at quality strikes. Swinging early and often places them right in their comfort zones and misunderstands the game of hitter versus pitcher.

September 20, 2012; Kansas City, MO, USA; Kansas City Royals third baseman Mike Moustakas (8) at bat in the ninth inning of the game against the Chicago White Sox at Kauffman Stadium. The Royals won the game 4-3. Mandatory Credit: Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports

In the hitter versus pitcher battle, it begins with the hitter at a slight disadvantage because it takes four balls to walk and just three strikes for an out, which is why I never understood why people call 2-2 an even count. That’s not even; that’s advantage pitcher, same with 1-1, but I digress. At 0-0, the pitcher has virtually no pressure to pitch to any one area of the strike zone or using any particular pitch. The information slate is nearly blank for that particular plate appearance. At 0-1, there is greater leeway to throw fringe pitches, thus, greater incentive to stay out of the middle of the plate. At 0-2 this is doubly true, which is why hitters who get in 0-2 counts produce negative results much more often. The pitcher expands the strike zone and so do hitters to protect. But in some ways, being 0-2 creates an advantage for the hitter because the hitter now has information about what influences exist on the pitcher. They now know that the pitcher is probably going to consciously stay away from the middle and is much more likely to throw a certain pitch (out pitch).

This is all conversely true as well. In 1-0, the hitter is aware that more pressure exists in that moment to throw a strike. And so on and so on. All the while, the hitter is reformulating his approach or at least, he should be. In 2-0, he should be thinking one pitch in one spot. If he doesn’t get that pitch in that spot, he shouldn’t swing. In 2-1, he can recalculate. As the count turns in the pitcher’s favor, he will expand to cover the plate but he will also understand the potential pitch selection better.

Without seeing more pitches, none of this happens. Or rather, less of this happens. It keeps the Royals from getting into counts like 2-0, 3-1, 2-1, counts that help the conscientious hitter more than the pitcher. I say it helps the conscientious hitter because it really does very little for the Francoeurs of the world who really only understand the notion of swinging at all cost.

The Royals BABIP right now is .302, which is fifth in the AL—not bad. Of course, they never walk so they need their BABIP to be in the .315 range to score a significant amount of runs. Do you see the perfect storm of why they aren’t producing offensively? Swinging at non-premium pitches. Putting balls in play weakly. Pitchers going very deep into games. It starts with their approach at the plate. Yes, they aren’t hitting for power, but that’s in large part because they are swinging at non-premium pitches and putting them in play early in counts. Yes, they aren’t walking, but that’s because they have a philosophy that doesn’t stress patience at the plate (By the way, the top five teams in walk percentage are all above league average in runs per game including the Tigers who are tops in runs per game at 5.37. They are also tops in BABIP, which means they’re walking and then hitting those runners in).

There might be some who want to blame the hitting coach(es) for this. It’s really not their fault(s). This is an organizational problem, and Kevin Seitzer was just as disinterested in seeing pitches. The organization as a whole does not stress the importance of seeing pitches and consequently does not emphasize it enough in the minors nor consider it enough when constructing a roster.

And because it’s organizational, it’s a problem not easily solved.

That’s the record James Shields had after his first 8 games started in 2012.

We talk all the time on here about how overvalued the “W’ is as a statistic, but unfortunately, the world we live in still hasn’t seemed to consider the ridiculous ways an individual gains a “win” or a “loss.” Michael talked last week about the way Shields’ record seemed “Grienkesque” in the way he’s compiled a 2-3 record despite an ERA of 2.48 with 53 strikeouts and 14 walks

Guess what Shields’ record was after his first 8 games in 2011?

3-1 (ERA – 2.08) 51 SO and 13 walks

There are some conflicting statistics here. Shields’ 2011 and 2013 stats are very similar and yet the discrepancy in record is pretty glaring. 7-1 to 3-5.

However, in the first 8 games of 2012, James had an E.R.A that was actually more than an entire run higher than his current progress. The difference? In 2011 and 2013, Shields was getting an average of 4.125 runs per game from his offense. In 2011, it just worked out that he was on the right side of the fence. In 2012, Shields, though still good, wasn’t anywhere near his current progress. However, his offense was averaging 5.125 runs a game.

All of this to say, I’m kind of bummed out that James has been getting slapped with so many losses. Not because I think anything of the “win,” but because I hear too many people talking about “wins” and “losses” as if they are the one thing that defines a pitcher’s success.

It gives me a headache.

So to all of you people, Shields has had a great start to the year. Don’t be morons. If a pitcher is good, it makes sense that he would probably have more wins than losses when the season ends. If he pitches well and his team provides him any sort of offense, he’s likely to do all right in that department.

However, if his team is struggling offensively (as the Royals have been this season, though it looks like they brought their bats to the game against the Angels last night) then it’s not too unbelievable to see James hang a 3-5 record through the first 8 games of the season.

Just stop acting like his record is important and have faith that the bats will start to pick up and help steer the course of his record back onto the straight and narrow.

May 13, 2013; Anaheim, CA, USA; Kansas City Royals designated hitter Billy Butler (16) slides beneath the tag of Los Angeles Angels catcher Chris Iannetta (17) to score in the fifth inning at Angel Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports

There have been questions all year about the Royals offense. Where is Eric Hosmer‘s power? What does Mike Moustakas have to fix? And recently – surprisingly – what’s wrong with Billy Butler?

On Monday night, at least, the Butler question was answered. Apparently there’s nothing wrong with Butler.

Before Monday’s game, Ned Yost had told Bob Dutton that he had no worries about Butler, the most consistent bat in the Royals lineup over the past few years.

I come to the park each day expecting Billy to get four hits. He might do it tonight. – Ned Yost on Butler’s struggles

Well Yost was wrong. Butler had five hits (and five RBI) as the Royals pounded out 19 hits en route to an 11-4 win over the Los Angeles Angels. The Royals scored in six different innings and six batters had more than one hit. The team had five doubles overall and 14 singles. More astonishing, they scored 11 runs without the benefit of a walk or a home run and struck out 13 times.

Early, Joe Blanton was using his changeup well to get strikeouts, but nothing else was working for him and he was just as hittable as he’s been all year. That allowed the Royals to get out ahead early and keep piling on. Moustakas and Chris Getz were the only starters to go hitless.

After a 1-6 stretch of games in which the Royals had scored just 23 runs the old anxiety that comes with being a Royals fan was rekindled. Thoughts of collapse were bouncing around the internet, so a big win like this one can hold off some of those fears. Still, it’d be nice to see the Royals have some more consistent home run power and some walks so that they wouldn’t have to bunch together multiple hits to score runs. The lineup put 33 balls in play. Of those, 19 fell for hits for a BABIP of .576. I don’t have to tell you that that isn’t sustainable.

Luis Mendoza threw six innings, shaking off some rough starts, and got six strikeouts with no walks in the process. Luke Hochevar worked the final three innings for his first career save and he looked great doing it for the most part.

A special treat for some tonight was the different tone presented by the Royals official Twitter account, as they handed the controls over to Danny Duffy.

By now, you know that Duffy is an enthusiastic guy, so while he’s rehabbing from Tommy John surgery, why not let him take the time to talk with fans?

Some highlights:

After a Billy Butler double in the first.

LETS RIDE. BILLY BUTLER. FASTEST MAN ALIVE. -@dannyduffy805

— Kansas City Royals (@Royals) May 14, 2013

Duffy tweets to himself.

@royals whats up me?

— Danny Duffy (@DannyDuffy805) May 14, 2013

After a blast of a double by Salvador Perez, Duffy showed his appreciation.

Salvy! Get em NIÑO!! Love you man! Follow my man @salvadorperez15. -@dannyduffy805 #duffytakeover

— Kansas City Royals (@Royals) May 14, 2013

And he had to show some more love for Billy Butler on his big night.

If Billy hits for the cycle i am going to church tonight. -@dannyduffy805 #duffytakeover

— Kansas City Royals (@Royals) May 14, 2013

#BillyButlerForManOfTheYear2013 -@dannyduffy805 #duffytakeover

— Kansas City Royals (@Royals) May 14, 2013

@billybutlerkc i love you.

— Danny Duffy (@DannyDuffy805) May 14, 2013

Don’t we all, Danny. Don’t we all.

First off, here are heat maps from baseballheatmaps.com of what Billy has been swinging at.  On top is April, and you can see he had a much smaller area of attack versus right handed pitchers.  He was only swinging heavily at pitches in the middle of the strike zone.  This expanded versus southpaws, but remained mostly strikes.  The last two weeks this has changed.  Against left handed pitchers he is swinging the most at pitches that are middle-away and avoiding the inside half of the plate.  Less power since he is not pulling inside pitches, which sounds a lot like Eric Hosmer right now as well.  On right handed pitchers he is swinging at inside and up in the zone, but nothing else.  Both heavy swing areas are smaller the last two weeks.  If you look at Billy’s Fangraphs page this shows up as well.

Butler is swinging at under 40% of pitches he sees for the first time in his career.  His rate is 38.8%, which is almost 4% lower than last year.  He is still swinging at a similar number of strikes, but his rate of swinging outside the zone is down.  This is consistent with him being pitched around some.  The pitch mix he is seeing from opposing pitchers looks about the same as last year.  Nothing in any of his rate stats jumps out as a red flag.

Then comes our old friend BABIP.  Billy’s balls in play average is .247, which is way below his career BABIP of .324, and I would love to point to this and say that he has been unlucky and all is well with the world.  The problem is that I don’t believe it is all luck driven.  I won’t say every team, though it seems that way, is shifting on Billy, but more often than not I have seen the short stop playing much closer to second base this year when Butler is up.  This has been noticeable on several occasions when he hits something hard up the middle and my brain says single only to be let down when the defender barely has to move to make the play.

Overall I’m not sure that anything looks “wrong” with Billy.  He has seen fewer strikes, but it hasn’t seemed to make him expand the strike zone, possibly the opposite in fact.  I would like to see him turn on the ball a little more, and he may need to just to try and move the defense to a more straight-up alignment.  Still, it mostly looks like Billy is still himself and just needs to adjust a bit to the shift.

It was a tough week to swallow. The boys in blue went 1-6, with four of those losses being by two runs or less. For their sloppy play as much as their terrible record over this week, I’m giving them a D for this week. If they continue playing like this, which I don’t think they will, some of the Royals faithful might need to be placed on psyche watch. Including me. I will lead us to the padded cells.

To the themes:

I have the power (if you grew up when I did you should get this reference)

Early in the week, the Royals showed why Kauffman Stadium really isn’t a homerun park by smashing the ball out of Camden Yards. They hit six homeruns in the Baltimore series, which even though they lost the Baltimore series, had some fans breathing a little easier. It showed that maybe the Royals aren’t completely incapable of hitting homeruns. It’s really hard for a team to win if it can’t hit the ball out of the yard. Conversely, it gets easier to win if you hit balls out of the yard, as the Yankees proved during their sweep of the Royals. I’m not sure this power surge is sustainable; I’ve never really seen the Royals as a homerun hitting team, but the guys they count on for power (Eric Hosmer, Billy Butler, Mike Moustakas, Alex Gordon) have to find a way to hit the ball over the fence now and again or the Royals are once again going to be a team whose high batting average doesn’t correlate to high run totals (there are other factors as well though).

May 6, 2013; Kansas City, MO, USA; Kansas City Royals right fielder Jeff Francoeur (21) cannot make the catch in right field in the sixth inning of the game against the Chicago White Sox at Kauffman Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports

Lineups and linedowns

Does anyone on Earth know what Ned Yost is doing right now?  This week saw the move that many of us, including me, hoped for: Jeff Francoeur and Chris Getz riding pine …  sort of. A day after Jarrod Dyson and Elliot Johnson took their places, they were right back in, indicating that it might be a platoon situation that would have Francoeur hit against lefties. But Yost told the keyboard cowboy Bob Dutton that this is not a platoon situation (see Dutton’s twitter feed for confirmation). Then what the hell is it? On Sunday, Yost decided to really screw with anyone who wants logic from the world by starting Dyson in center and Francoeur in right against a righty. Huh? Where am I right now? Is this … what the … what!?

The Getz situation seems to have a temporary fix but isn’t really resolved. Johnson started every game of the New York series, which really starts begging the question, what role is Getz filling at this point? I don’t know anyone who thinks Johnson is the answer at second base so it’s probably just a matter of time before the Royals do something to change that situation (hopefully call up Johnny Giavotella and send down Getz).

As for the Francoeur-Dyson situation, anyone’s guess is as good as mine at this point because something other than logic seems to be driving Yost’s decision making. Or I should say a logic that I cannot decipher is driving Yost’s decision making. It makes sense to righty-lefty platoon the two; I wouldn’t do it that way, but it makes sense. It makes sense to simply sit one of the two and play the other. It does not make sense to randomly play one and sit the other based on a seemingly arbitrary set of factors or perhaps no factors at all.

It’s one of those situations that makes me wonder if I’m losing my mind and slipping into an alternative reality.

The best defense is a good defense

I’m one of those people who went into this season believing in the defensive capability of the Royals. They have great range, I thought. They’ll get to balls no other team can, I thought. This will be one of the edges they have over Detroit, I thought. It turns out it doesn’t matter how much range you have if you can’t catch or throw the ball. The Royals made nine errors this week. That’s right—nine errors THIS WEEK. The Arizona Diamondbacks don’t have nine errors all season (8). The Royals have 27, fifth most in the Major Leagues, and they haven’t played as many games as anyone above them on that list.

I do love the range, and I do love the playmaking potential. But damn! Nine errors in one week? There are many little league teams looking at that and saying Put a tent on that circus.

In times like these, I’m reminded how very simple this game is at times: You throw the ball. You hit the ball. You catch the ball.

Oh Billy-Billy-Billy

Butler has one job. He only has one job because he only does one thing well: hit. Ok technically, he’s a two-tool player. He can hit for average and he can hit for power, but it’s all a part of the only thing he can do … hit. Luckily for him, hitting for average and power happen to be two very valuable and fairly rare tools. Those tools will keep him in country breakfasts for the rest of his life.

But right now, he’s looking less like Country Breakfast and more like a breakfast Hot Pocket in that he’s terrible and making me want to vomit. I love Butler. I really do. He seems like a swell guy, and he’s a great hitter. But he’s hitting .228/.350/.377. For a designated hitter, that’s pretty bad, though the on-base does cushion the blow a bit. For a designated hitter who is supposed to be the team’s offensive force, the team’s best hitter and run producer, it’s very bad. Right now, he’s strugglin (read it with a country accent for emphasis).

It’s actually not surprising at all that the Royals aren’t winning right now with Butler adding virtually no value. Over the last week, he has been an empty spot in the lineup. Normally, Butler is one of the most comfortable looking players at the plate. There are times when it looks like he was born and raised in the batters box, but right now, he’s guessing, flailing, getting frustrated and confused. It’s hard to watch for those of us used to his mastery at the plate. Yes, I think he’ll turn it around, but perhaps that’s because I know that he has to for this team to win.

That’s all I got. Time to drown my sorrows in a Milky Way cake while crying uncontrollably and listening to Tears for Fears.

As you may have heard, Northwest Arkansas Naturals General Manager Eric Edelstein has taken a job that will land him in Reno, and he’ll be leaving the Royals organization. But before he left, Troy Olsen caught up with him to talk about the move and to learn a bit more about some Double A prospects.

Then we talked about the latest Royals action, including the kneejerk reactions from social media. We tried to make sense of the noise, take a deep breath, and reflect on the long slog of the baseball season.

We wrapped up by picking a player from each full season minor league level to focus on. We discussed David Lough, Yordano Ventura, Kyle Smith, and Miguel Almonte this week, some of the top performers in the Royals system so far.

The Kansas City Baseball Vault is a weekly podcast that covers the Royals, their minor league affiliates and other aspects of baseball in Kansas City.

You can catch up on old episodes of the Kansas City Baseball Vault here on Kings of Kauffman. Episodes of the Royalman Report are available on the site as well.

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After starter Chris Dwyer allowed four runs over 5.1 innings (but left with the win), the Omaha bullpen duo of Blaine Boyer and Donnie Joseph allowed six runs over the game’s final two innings.

The Storm Chasers out-hit the Sky Sox 14-9 (five of those hits were doubles), as five starters collected multi-hit games. Max Ramirez and Anthony Seratelli each picked up three hits.

NW Arkansas played Springfield into the morning, as the Naturals won 5-4.

Both teams used two position players to pitch each. Mitch Canham, who was 2-for-7 at the plate, pitched three scoreless innings (the 15th-17th). Canham then moved to first base, as Matt Fields came on to pitch. He loaded the bases with nobody out in the 18th, but escaped the jam. He then walked to lead off the 20th inning and came around to score on Juan Graterol‘s first homerun of the season. Fields earned the win and also went 2-for-5 at the plate (including a two-run homerun).

It got a little dicey in the bottom of the 20th, as Fields allowed three straight singles to score a run with one out. After a fly out moved the tying run to third base, he induced a ground out to FINALLY end the game. The two teams will be back on the field for the finale this afternoon.

There wasn’t a ton of offense to talk about, as most of the hitters saw their averages drop. The two teams combined for 41 strikeouts and 32 men left on base.

Former Royal Ruben Gotay took the loss, despite being the reason the game went into extra innings. He hit a three-run homerun in the 8th inning (the only runs the Cardinals scored until the 20th). Outside of those two innings, the Naturals pitching staff combined for 18 scoreless innings.

Wilmington‘s five-run 6th inning gave them a 6-4 win over host Frederick in Game 1 of their doubleheader. In that inning, the Blue Rocks had four hits, a walk, and a sac fly, while being helped out by a Frederick error.

Kyle Zimmer started, but did not earn the win because he was pulled after four innings (he threw 78 pitches). He allowed five hits and two walks while striking out three. Cody Fassold picked up the win with two perfect innings of relief.

On offense in the win, Justin Trapp and Parker Morin picked up two hits.

The Blue Rocks exploded in the late innings to beat the Keys, 18-5 in the second game. They were down 5-0 heading into the fourth and capped the game with an eight-spot in the seventh. In that eight run outburst, Wilmington sent 12 men to the plate.

Every hitter had a multi-hit game except for two. Kenny Diekroeger and Alex Hudak each picked up two hits, including two out home runs. Jack Lopez fell a double short of the cycle and drove in seven runs. Jorge Bonifacio went 4-for-4 with three runs scored and two RBIs.

Malcom Culver earned his first win with three scoreless innings of relief of John Lamb, who only lasted four innings (5H, 5R, 2BB, K, 2HR).

The two games totaled 5 hours and 28 minutes and the start was delayed 33 minutes due to wet field conditions from an afternoon thunderstorm. Frederick had to cancel their fireworks show because the game did not end until 12:01am ET (one hour after their curfew).

*In roster news, first baseman Murray Watts was released and the Blue Rocks received Jared Schlehuber from extended spring training. Schlehuber went 2-for-5 with four RBIs in the second game.

Lexington won Game 1 over West Virginia, 2-0. Colin Rodgers picked up the win with six shutout innings. He allowed six hits and a walk while striking out six. Mark Peterson earned his fifth save of the season.

Raul Mondesi and Jin-Ho Shin each picked up two hits in the win and both drove in a run (in the fifth and sixth innings).

The Legends lost the second game, 4-3. Josh Bell hit a two-run home run to give the Power the lead in the top of the seventh.

On offense in the loss, Terrence Gore went 3-for-4 with two runs scored from the leadoff spot (they only had six hits).

Starter Daniel Stumpf pitched well, but only lasted four innings (4H, R, BB, 6K). Alec Mills took the loss, as he allowed the two run home run, along with an inherited runner in the sixth.

So far, James Shields, Jeremy Guthrie and Ervin Santana have anchored the team, with none of the top three starters having any meltdown starts. Guthrie has been undefeated in every start (and has a team-record streak of starts without a loss). Santana has looked like a completely different pitcher from last year and Shields is as advertised.

April 08, 2013; Kansas City, MO, USA; Kansas City Royals pitcher Ervin Santana (54) delivers a pitch against the Minnesota Twins during the first inning at Kauffman Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Peter G. Aiken-USA TODAY Sports

The bullpen, despite perception, has performed just as well in 2013 than they did in 2012. The times they’ve blown saves, though, have been traumatic enough to make it seem like everyone’s struggling. As a group, relievers have a 3.16 ERA. Last year’s bullpen had a 3.17 ERA. This year’s group has a 3.41 K/BB ratio compared to last year’s 2.36.

Now, the question is how long they can keep it up. Guthrie was the typical innings eater with the Orioles, got rocked as a Rockie and has been brilliant as a Royal. He’s also striking out a higher percentage of batters while walking a lower percentage. He’s stranded an incredible 93% of baserunners – a number that just can’t be sustained.

Santana’s also out-performing his career norms. His ground ball rate, HR/FB rate, walk rate, strikeout rate, and strand rate are all better than his what he’s done to this point. It’s not as drastic as a 93% strand rate, but at 84% it’s still pretty high.

The big three starters’ ERAs are outpacing their FIPs and xFIPs, and all three measurements are better than their career to this point.

That’s not to discredit what they’ve done to this point. Pitchers can go on great runs and Santana has a couple of very good years on his resume. Shields has been a legit Cy Young candidate in the past and, while not a true Ace in the mold of Justin Verlander, he’s not too far at all from that group. The trio having success shouldn’t be surprising. Having this much success is a surprise, though.

On the other hand, the other two parts of the rotation haven’t had much success. I’m somewhat willing to give Luis Mendoza a break since he’s been skipped due to weather, schedules, manhunts, but he has to be better than he has been. He had a stretch of good starts last year, but this year he’s walking batters more often and not striking out enough to compensate for it. Nearly half of the runners he’s let on base have scored, and he’s not getting grounders as frequently.

Similarly, Wade Davis is struggling to reach his career marks. He’s had some good starts but when he’s been bad, he’s been disastrous.

I’ve thrown all of the Royals pitchers’ 2013 stats (through 32 games) into a table and compared them to their career rates. Things I’d look at when guessing at statistical regression (and remember, regression just means going towards the normal rate, which isn’t necessarily worse – Kelvin Herrera’s home run per fly ball rate is an obvious regression situation) are how many runners are left on base (average LOB% are usually around 70%) and how many homers are surrendered per fly ball allowed (usually around 10%). As those numbers turn towards the norm, ERAs should go up as well – but the favorable walk rates and strikeout rates can prevent large swings. Shields and Guthrie, already owning good walk rates, have been a bit worse than their career rates. (Bold numbers show where a pitcher is outperforming his career stat in that area; italics indicate where they’re performing worse statistically. All stats picked up from FanGraphs.)

At some point, Guthrie will lose a start. Shields will get hit. Santana will have a bad day. Davis will throw a gem and Mendoza will show why he won the fifth starter job in the first place. Herrera will hit a stretch of fly balls that don’t leave the yard (for example: four fly balls that stay in will change his HR/FB% to 15% from his gawdy 37.5%). Luke Hochevar and Aaron Crow won’t strand every runner they allow to reach.

But these guys are better than last year and they’re showing it, even if the stats in the end might not be quite as great as they are now. If the offense picks up at the same time as some of those statistical regressions, the net change may not even be that noticeable and the Royals may not have to rely as much on high strand rates.

So far, so good.

May 9, 2013; Baltimore, MD, USA; Kansas City Royals third baseman Mike Moustakas (8) is congratulated by third base coach Eddie Rodriguez (14) after hitting a solo home run in the seventh inning against the Baltimore Orioles at Oriole Park at Camden Yards. The Royals defeated the Orioles 6-2. Mandatory Credit: Joy R. Absalon-USA TODAY Sports

Thankfully, the Royals finally got a homer from Eric Hosmer, who has been disappointing from a power standpoint. He’s gotten on base, and his batting average is much better than at any point last year, but he’s showing little slugging potential so far. Nearly everything he hits is to the left side and he seems either unable or unwilling to pull the ball. His homer, while impressive, was to the opposite field(not necessarily a bad thing, but given the context, it’s not helping the narrative).

At this stage, it’s not just a bizarre stretch, it’s a tendency. Hosmer has been criticized in the past for trying to pull too much, and, like Alex Gordon in his early years, would swing over the ball, top it over to second, and ground out.

Mike Moustakas, though, has shown signs of waking up from his early season slump. The Royals said they’d found a problem in his swing and since the adjustment, he’s hit three homers and looked much better at the plate.

Other notes:

-The Royals traded third baseman Brandon Wood to the Baltimore Orioles for cash considerations. Wood had a .264/.304/.396 line in 54 plate appearances for Omaha. Wood was basically a lottery ticket, but it’s possible the Royals might try Johnny Giavotella at third base more now. He’s seen some work at the spot this season, according to Lee Warren.

-Sam Mellinger produced a fine column about the virtue of patience with prospects, citing Alex Gordon as an example. I like the idea, though, let’s face it, we don’t want to wait a couple more years for Hosmer and Moustakas to figure it out before they become stars. For what it’s worth, Gordon homered in all three games in Baltimore and now leads the team in homers with six.

-I do, however, take umbrage with Jeffrey Flanagan’s column on Fox Sports Kansas City’s website. He discussed reactions to James Shields‘s start as a Royal. His thesis is that the world was split into two camps: those who were entirely anti-Shields after the trade, and well, everyone else.

Flanagan cites Shields’s solid start in 2013 and suggests that everyone who railed against the trade in December is now flipping over to praise it. I think that eliminates all subtlety to the issue. Flanagan dismisses Wil Myers as a top prospect – not on the Royals but in all of baseball – and suggests more struggles than were truly present (Myers had a rough 2011 due to a fluke injury and resultant infection in his knee but finished strong and was the 2012 Prospect of the Year. If that’s struggling, sign me up.)

But the main problem I have is that he completely ignores that, while fans, bloggers, and analysts can like James Shields as a pitcher, liking Shields doesn’t have to also be an acceptance of the way he was acquired. In three years, if the Royals are looking to fill a hole in right field and James Shields is a free agent signee elsewhere, the Royals had better have made the playoffs at least once – if not twice – to truly justify the trade.

Bottom line, Flanagan implies that every fan that didn’t like the trade also didn’t like James Shields, which just isn’t the case. You can like James Shields and not like the way the Royals had to go about acquiring him. Here’s what I wrote shortly after the deal last December:

I still think the Royals paid full retail and left a tip in their acquisition of Shields. I like the return. I don’t like the price. But Shields is good – and I’ve always been a fan – and he instantly changes the Royals rotation from a bunch of schlubs last year to a true rotation that can make some noise.

-Jim Callis of Baseball America has put out his first mock draft in preparation of the 2013 draft next month. His projection for the Royals? Right-handed pitcher Ryne Stanek from Arkansas, a Kansas City product who was on the Royals radar out of high school a couple of years ago.

The longest losing streak so far in 2013 belongs to the team that spent the most money in the off-season.  The Los Angeles Dodgers have wracked up 7 losses in a row, and have a chance to extend that number tonight.  Miami is a good opportunity for a win, but I believe in you LA.  They have not yet won a game this month.  They also have a 6 game losing streak.

All but two major league teams have lost at least three in a row, so the Royals are in good company.  Only the New York Yankees, who everyone was writing off before the season, and the Texas Rangers have not lost 3 in a row yet.  Maybe the Royals can hand the Yanks three in a row over the weekend since they are due.  There are six teams tied with the Royals with a longest streak of 3 (Baltimore, Boston, Colorado, Seattle, and St. Louis), so the Royals have managed to out perform 22 of the 30 teams so far in avoiding losing streaks.  Of the 3 in a row max club, the Royals, Orioles, and Cardinals have only one streak of three, while the Red Sox, Rockies, and Mariners have 2 streaks each.

The leaders for most streaks of 3 losses or more are, unsurprisingly, Miami with 6 such streaks and Houston with 5.

This may seem frivolous, but as I am sure most of you are aware, the Royals kind of have a habit of sustained losing streaks.  Avoiding them feels really good.  Last year the Royals had the brutal 12 game April losing streak and 10 streaks of 3 or more losses in total.  That is one and a third losing streaks per month.  We are over a month in with only one such streak so far, and it is of the shortest variety due to last night’s victory.

Mandatory Credit: Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports

On April 23^rd, Bob Dutton of the Kansas City Star wrote an article in which Moustakas claimed to have been informed of a flaw in his swing mechanics by the coaches. They told him that he had been getting out on his front foot too much and not staying back in a position where he can see the ball better and have a better opportunity to drive it. I’m not a swing expert by any means, but it certainly seems like a plausible explanation for why he was hitting so many pitches in the air – both in the infield and to the outfield – over the first 3 weeks of the season. At that point, Moose had a line of .158/.226/.193, which is less than desirable for most pitchers, let alone a third baseman on an AL club with playoff aspirations.

Since the flaw was revealed to him, Moose has put up a slash line that is much more indicative of a player manning the hot corner: .308/.383/.538 with 2 HR and 3 doubles over 12 games and 47 plate appearances.

Not only has his overall production improved, but it seems like Moustakas is seeing the ball better and has a better approach. He sports career best walk and strikeout percentages, and he’s seeing more pitches per plate appearance (P/PA) since the change. Prior to April 23^rd, Moose was seeing 3.27 P/PA. Since that date, the number is 3.68. Granted, that’s still not quite what you want to see, since that would only put him 61^st out of 94 qualified batters in the American League. But while it may not seem like it, seeing .4 more P/PA is a significant improvement. For example, adding another .4 to the 3.68 from his recent stretch would put him in the top 20 in the AL, right around players like Joe Mauer and Dustin Pedroia. In his last 4 games, Moose has seen 4.36 P/PA. Obviously that number isn’t going to be sustainable for a player like Moustakas who has never been a guy who takes a ton of walks, but it does suggest that he has improved his pitch recognition and is finding what pitches he needs to drive, while either letting others by, or fouling them off to wait for a better pitch.

Moose also seems to be making better contact on pitches he likes. Over the past 12 games, he has a LD% of 20.6, GB% of 35.3, and FB% of 44.1. Prior to the reveal of his swing flaw, he had a LD% of 12.2, GB% of 24.5, and FB% of 63.3.

Those are staggering numbers. Like all small sample sizes, you have to take these with a grain of salt, but the fact that there has been such a dramatic shift in his batted ball percentages continues to give credence to the coaches’ theory. Moustakas is still hitting infield flyballs at a high rate, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see that come down in the next couple of weeks as well, as Moose continues to heat up.

Overall, Moustakas’ line still isn’t all that pretty: .219/.294/.333, so he does have a lot of work to do. But there are signs that he may be turning it around, and with the way the rest of the offense has looked lately, the Royals are really going to need their third baseman to hit like a third baseman. Moose and his fellow corner infielder, Eric Hosmer, will need to step their offensive production up in order for the Royals’ offense to be strong enough to keep the team in contention later in the season. While the starting pitching has been great, the last few games have shown that scoring just 1, 2, or 3 runs isn’t an effective strategy for winning consistently in this league. If Moustakas can keep performing the way he has recently, that will go a long way in improving this squad’s playoff chances.

Cain and Gordon should start things off for this team. Mandatory Credit: Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports

Needless to say…something’s gotta give. This team has shown very little power and continually seems to either squeak by or come up just short. Lately the trend is to squander a good outing by one of the starting pitchers. I think we can all agree that James Shields should have better than a 2-2 record.

If you go back and look at my last dissection of the batting order, you’ll see I used some of the more modern (nerdy? No, I don’t live in my mom’s basement) ways of thinking when stacking the guys up from 1 through 9. I did a simple breakdown at the time, just looking at building one “master” lineup…but the way these guys are hitting – it might be time to consider not only a shuffle in the order, but some platoons. Once again, I’ll lean on ideas borrowed from The Book. And away we go…

I still believe your best hitters should be in the 1, 2, 4, and 5 positions. With the thought that your leadoff guy should have the highest possible OBP, and the way these guys are hitting…I think our new leadoff guy should be Lorenzo Cain. I’m not making this move lightly, as I’ve been a proponent of Gordon as the leadoff guy…but Gordon is flashing some power and Cain is getting on base more often. I’d stick Gordon in the next spot, though…not moving him too far from that top spot in the lineup.

Moose is heating up…is he ready to bat third? Mandatory Credit: Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports

With the top two spots settled, I think our cleanup guy is obviously Billy Butler. After getting off to a pretty slow start, Butler now leads the team in OBP and is third, behind Cain and Gordon, in OPS (these numbers do NOT reflect Wednesday’s game, by the way). But he’s coming on strong.

Our third hitter is a bit tougher to peg. We’ve got Alcides Escobar, Salvador Perez, Mike Moustakas, and Eric Hosmer as the next best hitters in this lineup. Chris Getz and Jeff Francoeur, to the surprise of absolutely no one, bring up the rear and are the most likely candidates to at least be platooned, if not completely replaced, at some point.

The fourth best OPS belongs to Escobar, then we have Perez, and Hosmer. Moose is currently last on the list…but after another pretty impressive game Wednesday night, I think it’s a matter of time before he leapfrogs his way into the mix.

I may be crazy – but combining the way he’s been hitting of late with what is expected of him, I’d put Moose in that third spot versus RHP. Then I think you have to go with (after Butler at cleanup), Perez and Hosmer at 5 and 6. What about Escobar? If he’s not going to hit second anymore, I just can’t see him anywhere from 3 through 6, so we’ll put him at 7. After that, we go with Dyson rather than Frenchy (versus RHP) and then some kind of platoon with Getz and Johnson.

So the lineup versus RHP goes like this:

Lorenzo Cain RF

Alex Gordon LF

Mike Moustakas 3B

Billy Butler DH

Sal Perez C

Eric Hosmer 1B

Alcides Escobar SS

Jarrod Dyson CF

Chris Getz/Elliot Johnson 2B

When I switch it up and fill out the lineup card against southpaws…I think we have to make a few changes. First of all – for the time being, I’m not sure you play Moose versus lefties. And if you do, I don’t think you can bat him third. I’d also go with Frenchy over Dyson in this lineup, and give Elliot Johnson the definite nod at second base, with Tejada getting some time when Moose does play.

With that being said…I think our lineup versus LHP shakes out like this:

Lorenzo Cain CF

Alex Gordon LF

Sal Perez C

Billy Butler DH

Miguel Tejada/Mike Moustakas 3B

Eric Hosmer 1B

Alcides Escobar SS

Jeff Francoeur RF

Elliot Johnson/Miguel Tejada 2B

It’s not a radical shakeup by any means, but it is different – both from my initial idea weeks ago and from what we’ve seen on a daily basis courtesy of Yost. It puts our hitters in (arguably) the right spots, while giving the team a legitimate power threat in that cleanup spot. Cain hasn’t flashed a lot of home run power just yet (I do think it will come) and would be allowed to get on base for Gordon, who was slugging at a .484 clip before hitting another homer Wednesday. Those first two spots are now filled by all-around batters who can work the count, drive the ball, run a bit (Cain can run a LOT), and have a knack for coming up with big hits.

Escobar batting lower in the order gives some protection to Hosmer, who would be batting just ahead of him. Hosmer has a good OBP at .343, but has yet to hit for any power. He won’t generally kill a rally though, and if he can get on base Escobar has a decent shot of following with a hit of his own. Another benefit to moving Escobar down – he’s grounding into a lot of double plays this season, leading the team with 7 so far. Would you rather have him killing a rally with Dyson or Frenchy on deck, or with Butler (or, according to what I’ve sketched out – Moose or Perez) waiting to bat?

When all is said and done, this team still won’t succeed by slugging a combined .390, but a slight shuffle might give them a better chance at scraping together 5 runs instead of 3. Then we just have to hope a couple of these guys start hitting the long ball.

What do you think? Am I nuts? How would you stack the order?

Apr 28, 2013; Kansas City, MO, USA; Kansas City Royals center fielder Jarrod Dyson (1) singles in a run against the Cleveland Indians during the fourth inning at Kauffman Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Peter G. Aiken-USA TODAY Sports

I don’t want to sound the all-clear too early, but according to the most trustworthy person I’ve never met—Bob Dutton—Ned Yost is considering making some changes to the lineup that include less of Jeff Francoeur and Chris Getz. (awkward white-guy dance in my office while no one is looking to celebrate).

I’ve been one of the most critical of the decision to play these two but most especially of the decision to play Francoeur (I was actually in favor of giving Getz the job out of Spring Training because he earned it and Giavotella did nothing to earn it). So, what I want to do with this post is make the argument I’ve made repeatedly across different posts but in one central location for those who have yet to read it. The argument is that Jarrod Dyson should be starting over Francoeur.

Francoeur and Dyson represent a somewhat difficult line of comparison for two reasons: 1) they are remarkably different players; 2) Francoeur has a lot of major league data to draw from while Dyson has relatively little. In order to accommodate these differences we’ll have to use that thing that allows statistics to come to life: intuition. This is closely related to reason and logic but is not exactly the “eye test” so beloved by Hawk Harrelson. It’s a way of seeing what is most important to the ultimate goal of winning baseball games within the context of what’s already in place.

So, here is the overarching reason Dyson should be playing instead of Francoeur: he’s more valuable. We’ll start with their WAR, a flawed but useful stat. In 2012, the only season in which Dyson saw significant playing time, he posted a 1.6 bWAR (that is WAR as it is measured by Baseball Reference). To be fair to Francoeur, I won’t use his 2012; it was the worst season of his career. Instead, I’ll look at 2011, arguably the best season of his career, in which he posted a 3.2 WAR. Dyson posted his 1.6 WAR in 330 PA and a few handfuls of pinch running appearances. Francoeur earned his 3.2 WAR in 656 PA.

If we simply ended the analysis there, Francoeur looks to have a case for starting over Dyson or at the very least, has a case that he is equally as valuable. If we extrapolate Dyson’s 2012 into a full season, it equals roughly Francoeur’s 2011. We can really keep this analysis extremely simple by asking ourselves one question at this juncture. Do we think Dyson’s 2012 was an anomalous career year? If it wasn’t, if Dyson can do better or at the very least consistently do that well, the answer is simple; Dyson should be starting over Francoeur. Because we know that Francoeur’s 2011 was a pretty anomalous career year. He hadn’t had a year like 2011 since 2007, and those two seasons represent his only full seasons over 3.0 bWAR. He has had a few seasons of negative bWAR, meaning he was worse than replacement level. This includes his 2012 season in which he was -2.3 WAR and the worst everyday player in baseball.

I feel confident saying that Dyson is either capable of maintaining his 2012 performance or improving on it. Here is why. Dyson only hit .260 in 2012, which isn’t great. That comes from a fairly good BABIP of .318, which is pretty typical of fast guys who can scrounge a few extra singles with their legs. The reason his batting average was so low was an unusually high strikeout percentage of 17 percent. It was usually high because in the minors his strikeout rate has been closer to the 12-14 range. However, he also had a fairly high walk rate of 9.1 percent. This gave him a .328 OBP. Dyson’s value is very tied to his ability to get on base and run. As he gets more acclimated to major league pitching, it seems reasonable to believe that he can cut down on strikeouts and put more balls in play, which with his speed should mean a higher average and thus, a higher on-base percentage.

But even if Dyson doesn’t improve at all, even if he only ever performs at the level he did in 2012, he would be a better starting option than Francoeur because the likelihood of Francoeur replicating his 2011 is very low. The inconsistency experienced over his career is remarkable, but if there was a safe bet on Francoeur’s WAR over a given season, it would lie in the .5-1.5 range, which is just below major league average. Nothing to write home about. Some argue that Francoeur has value because he has more power than Dyson and a better arm. This is partially true. Francoeur’s arm and power are better than Dyson’s but not nearly enough to make up the difference in range defensively or the wildly inconsistent offense. And really, Dyson has a pretty good arm as well.

The fact is Dyson is a better defender, and he’s the better base runner by a wide margin. Those are certainties, not open for debate among reasonable people (though I’m sure a few will chime in below to show just how “reasonable” they are). At the plate, Dyson has shown that he can hit at a level that is comparable to Francoeur in every area but power and probably exceeds Francoeur in on-base ability, especially once given a chance to get more plate appearances and see more major league pitching.

The only question people should really be asking is why did this take so long for Yost to see?. 

P.S. Many favor a platoon split in this situation (Francoeur against lefties; Dyson against righties). While this is more appealing than seeing Francoeur all the time, I’d still start Dyson over Francoeur against most lefties. That’s how little faith I have in Francoeur’s ability to be a positive force at this point, regardless of his career numbers against lefties, which aren’t terrible. And while Dyson is worse against lefties, he hasn’t had enough big league plate appearances to tell us that the split will be significant enough to take the dire action of playing Francoeur.

Consider that this time last year, the Royals had already placed these players on the disabled list:

• 3/20/12: Salvador Perez (torn meniscus)
• 4/4/12: Felipe Paulino (sore right elbow)
• 4/4/12: Joakim Soria (Tommy John surgery)
• 4/4/12: Blake Wood (ulnar nerve irritation that ended up as Tommy John surgery)
• 4/12/12: Lorenzo Cain (strained groin that developed into hip flexor)
• 4/21/12: Greg Holland (rib stress reaction)
• 5/3/12: Yuniesky Betancourt (right ankle sprain)
• 5/9/12: Jonathan Sanchez (biceps tendinitis)

April 14, 2013; Kansas City, MO, USA; Kansas City Royals catcher Salvador Perez (13) gets set behind home plate with umpire Marvin Hudson (51) against the Toronto Blue Jays during the sixth inning at Kauffman Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Peter G. Aiken-USA TODAY Sports

There goes your starting catcher, #4 starter, All-Star closer, average reliever, starting center fielder, setup man, “utility player”, and “#2 starter” all before the season was much more than a month old. Danny Duffy, Chris Getz and Everett Teaford would join that group on the DL before the end of May.

This year, the Royals disabled list consists of Duffy (who was shut down after a May 13 start) and Paulino (who hurt his groin in June, rehabbed, then found a torn UCL). That’s it.

The Royals have made one callup this year, twice bringing up Will Smith, and only bringing him up because of a day/night double header allowing the move. No demotions, no disabled list stints. The same 25 men from day one.

That allows the Royals to keep a regular pitching rotation (when the weather doesn’t intervene) and to keep the bullpen lined up in the roles they prefer. It allows them to get their regulars at bats and means they aren’t stuck playing someone out of position or hoping someone fills in adequately. Then, when the Royals need to shake up the lineup for a night, they have the full arsenal of players at their disposal. They can be flexible with all of the weapons they expected at the start of the year right there waiting to be called upon.

Over the course of the year, that will help a team put their best team out there every night without having to scrape something together. Just think of the rotation last year. Kansas City used 13 different starters over the course of the season. They used 46 total players. In 2011, they used 42 players, but most of those moves involved promoting prospects and sending down (or waiving) players who’d opened the year on the roster. Bruce Chen hit the DL, as did Matt Treanor and otherwise, there were no other significant injuries.

So far, so good for this year’s team as well.

Apr 14, 2013; Kansas City, MO, USA; Kansas City Royals manager Ned Yost (3) during batting practice before a game against the Toronto Blue Jays at Kauffman Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Peter G. Aiken-USA TODAY Sports

The first decision that prompted outrage was the removal of James Shields after 8 scoreless innings on Monday. You know the story, Shields was cruising having allowed only 2 hits to the punchless White Sox but Yost chose to bring in his closer, Gregg Holland, to finish the game. Holland blew the save and the Royals eventually lost in 11 innings. I actually didn’t have a problem with this move. In his previous 9 appearances, Holland had allowed zero earned runs and struck out 16 in 9 innings. The league hit .156/.206/.219 against him during that time so it was reasonable to expect Holland to come in and pitch and scoreless 9th. Games like these are heart breakers and, spoiler alert, will happen again.

Last night’s decision is harder to defend, so I won’t. With the go ahead runner on base Yost turned to the absolute worst guy to go to, Luke Hochevar. Hoch’s struggles with men on base are well documented so it came as no great surprise when the run scored. He’s been pretty solid lately, and Aaron Crow was being saved for a save situation, so the move made some sense, but it would have made more if Hochevar had started the 8th inning. A manager has to put his players in position to succeed and Yost didn’t do that last night. Since he didn’t learn anything the last time Hochevar let inherited runners score we can only hope he was genuinely paying attention last night.

A move, or rather non-move, getting less publicity is Yost’s decision to not send George Kottaras to the plate in the 9th inning. Instead he trotted out the low OBP trifecta of Jeff Francoeur, Salvador Perez and Mike Moustakas. Kottaras has come to the plate in a late and close situation six times this year and has drawn a walk in four of them. They needed a baserunner and, small sample size or not, he’s shown an ability to get on base.

The last time Jarrod Dyson started a game he had 2 hits, 2 RBIs and a stolen base. That was April 28th in a 9-0 win against the Indians. In the 8 games since, Jeff Francoeur has put up a .200/.250/.333 line in 32 plate appearances. Dyson has seemingly been typecast as Billy Butler‘s late game pinch runner. He’s good at it, sure, but there’s absolutely no reason he shouldn’t be starting against right-handed pitching.

Kevin Appier‘s final line on that night: 9 innings, one hit, one run, one walk, 11 strikeouts. And because the Royals couldn’t score, he took the loss.

That may be the most painful example of a great start – an excellent start – wiped out by no run support. Might be. Except nearly a year before, on July 23, 1992, Appier threw 10 innings of shutout ball, allowed just three baserunners and got to watch as Cleveland won a 1-0 game in 14 innings.

Appier has two starts in his career where he achieved a game score higher than 90, but the Royals never scored a run and eventually lost. That’s brutal.

But what about a full season like that?

The Royals made headlines before the 1993 season when they signed Kansas City product David Cone to a three year deal to come home. It was Ewing Kauffman’s last big move before his death that August. With Appier already in the fold, it looked like a strong 1-2 punch. And it was. Appier won the ERA title (and should have won the Cy Young Award, in my entirely biased opinion) while Cone a 3.33 ERA. Both pitchers combined for 492.2 innings pitched.

Cone finished the year with 14 losses. He spent all year getting hardly any run support at all. The Royals scored five or more runs nine times when Cone was starting and never scored more than seven in a game. Cone enjoyed 3.6 runs scored 2.9 runs per 27 outs in Cone starts, and 2.6 runs per 27 outs when Cone was actually on the mound. Basically, if Cone slipped up and threw even a quality start (three earned runs in six or more innings), he could still run a good chance of being the losing pitcher. That’s a slim margin of error.

May 6, 2013; Kansas City, MO, USA; Kansas City Royals starting pitcher James Shields (33) delivers a pitch in the fourth inning of the game against the Chicago White Sox at Kauffman Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports

Enter James Shields. His two starts against the Chicago White Sox have him feeling sympathy with Appier and Cone. Shields threw six innings in his opening day start in Chicago, giving up one run, but the Royals mustered none of their own and Shields drew the loss. On Monday, Shields carried a no-hitter deep into the game, but even after losing his shot at history, he had still thrown eight innings of shut out ball. The result, as we know, could become infamous depending on how the rest of the season unfolds.

Shields didn’t come back out for the ninth inning after his dominant start. Ned Yost turned it over to Greg Holland, who fell behind, gave up hits, and, despite Chicago’s best efforts to bail him out, gave up the tying run. Kelvin Herrera gave up a homer in the tenth inning. The Royals lost. Howls of outrage. Gnashing of teeth.

In his seven starts, the Royals are 3-4. In those four losses, he’s given up a combined five runs. In one of those starts, at home against the Toronto Blue Jays, he still went the distance and really made just two mistakes. The Royals have scored a combined six runs in those losses and a combined 22 runs while he’s been on the mound.

Shields is doing his part. If the Royals are able to get a timely hit in the opener, maybe get a second run on Monday, he (and the Royals) could have two more wins.

But alas, sometimes that’s baseball. Shields is the ace of this staff, and he’s been running into his counterpart on nearly every team he’s faced.

*at the start of Tuesday, May 7

With the exception of Cobb (who’s pitched well), Shields has faced either the #1 or #2 starter on the opposing teams. And these aren’t #1′s in name only. These are perennial Cy Young candidates and/or winners. With the exception of the Royals explosion against Hamels, the Royals haven’t done much against the tough competition. But again, Shields has done his part, outdueling his counterpart (at least by the game score) in every game but opening day.

After a game like Monday, when Shields was probably (we don’t know but it’s a safe bet) going to close out the shutout, you could understand how he might be frustrated, even if he’d never say so publicly.

There’s only so much Shields can do. He’ll continue to pitch deep into games, get key outs, and perform like the best pitcher the Royals have seen since Zack Greinke in 2009. But it won’t mean much if the Royals can’t get him some support. For what it’s worth, in 1994, David Cone went 16-5 and the Royals gave him better than five runs a game of support. Cone won the Cy Young Award. If the Royals can score for Shields, he’ll be in that discussion this year.

Jeremy established himself as a better than average starter beginning in 2007 at 28 years old.  Every year since then he has been a little above or a little below average without ever standing out.  Last year in Colorado he has his first really bad stretch, but he came to Kansas City and looked fantastic so that at the end of the year he had gotten back to slightly below average:

As you can see, this year has been different.  It is not all that likely that he will end up being 74% better than average for all of 2013 since that number is being skewed by his fantastic start on on Saturday.  Still, he was doing really well in the 5 prior starts as well.  The main difference for him this year has been a little better K rate, a career high ground ball rate, and some luck through low BABIP and high strand rate.  Even with the luck though, he has a career best xFIP and SIERA so far at 4.09 and 4.23, so even the metrics that try to strip out luck are showing a possibility that he is going to be better this year than he has in the past.  What if Guthrie has a career year?  I went and looked what that might look like, and what it might mean for the rest of his contract with the Royals.

The bar I set was a bit lower than that sparkling 174 ERA+ up there since I don’t think Guthrie can keep that up, so I looked for starting pitchers who put up 140 or more after the age of 30 for the first time.  There are quite a few players over the past 50 years who are in this group.  First I will talk about a chunk of the guys from a while ago, and then a look at two more recent players.

The first bunch includes Bob Purkey, Bob Veale, Dick Donovan, Elmer Dessens, Gil Heredia, Mike Morgan, Mike Scott, Rick Reed, Tom Candiotti, Vern Law, and Woody Williams.  If you wanted to hear that Guthrie could morph into an ace at this point of his career, I am going to have to disappoint you.  The guys who figure it out later and become dominant, think Cliff Lee or Randy Johnson, tend to have big breakouts in their late 20s.  This group should not make you uncomfortable about Guthrie’s prospects going forward though.  Most of them had 1 to 4 more decent years as a starter after their career year with a couple of them hanging around usefully until their early 40s.  Only Vern Law fell off a cliff.  He had a great year at 35 and then two bad years before

September 20, 2012; Kansas City, MO, USA; Kansas City Royals starting pitcher Jeremy Guthrie (33) gets the out on Chicago White Sox right fielder Alex Rios (51) trying to steal home in the third inning at Kauffman Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports

hanging it up.  If Guthrie can be really good for one year, and then give the Royals two more years as an average starting pitcher, then the contract given to him will have been well worth it.

Two more contemporary players really stuck out to me.  The first is Ryan Dempster.  His path is unlike all of the others due to his time in the bullpen.  He went back into the starting rotation at 31 and had a phenomenal year, and has been a consistently good starter since with only one down year in 2011.  A half decade of solid starting pitching.  The other guy is Ted Lilly.  Lilly came up a little younger than Guthrie, but didn’t really establish himself until his late 20s like Jeremy.  Then at 33 Lilly had a really nice year for the Cubs.  His next two seasons he was slightly above then slightly below average.  At 36 he was off to another good start last year before his arm gave out.  He tried to come back this year, but his two starts so far have not been promising.

All of this has made me hopeful for Guthrie’s time in KC.  There is no reason he can’t put together three solid seasons based on history, and we are only going to pay him $25 million for those years.  Typically you have to overspend in the free agent market, but in this case the Royals may have made a very valuable acquisition without needing to.  Of course, the early season returns from Guthrie could also be a mirage, but I really like how he has looked.

July 8, 2012; Kansas City, MO, USA; World pitcher Yordano Ventura throws a pitch during the first inning of the 2012 All Star Futures Game at Kauffman Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports

Obviously, at this point we all know Ventura, the short, wiry fireballer who landed in the Royals top five prospects this offseason. He’s been making a steady ascent through the Royals minor leagues starting with a successful 2010 where he struck out more than a quarter of the batters he faced in Rookie ball as a 19-year-old, then a thoroughly dominant turn at Wilmington to start last year that landed him in Double A by season’s end.

He had an impressive spring training where he struck out seven batters in 11.2 innings, walking just two, and the Royals sang his praises throughout. That success has carried over into 2013′s Double A season where he’s racked up 29.1 innings for Northwest Arkansas with 43 strikeouts (13.2 K/9). Even better, he’s only walked 11 batters. He’s given up one homer in a power-friendly Texas League.

Coming into the season, there were questions about if he could be a starter or if he’d be relegated to the bullpen. The Royals want to keep him lined up as a starter until he shows that he can’t cut it there, which is a good approach. Ventura’s biggest weapon is his fastball, which he can dial up to triple digits deep into games – Baseball Prospectus named it the best fastball in the minors before the season started. He gets tremendous arm speed with his delivery despite his small stature. He’s put on some weight so the 5’11″ 140 pounds he was listed at in 2010 isn’t quite so alarming. He’s not the prototypical starter, but many scouts and analysts are starting to believe he could handle the workload.

His curveball is developing into a huge pitch for him as well. The fastball/curveball combination would be lethal if he were to end up in the back end of a bullpen, but he’s making strides towards average in a recent start, according to a Jason Parks scouting report.

If both secondary pitches develop, he could have a brutal curveball as another out pitch along with a good enough changeup to prevent anyone from sitting on his two primary offerings. To me, a starter really has to have at least three regular pitches, to get through lineups and as an alternative if his best stuff isn’t there with a key pitch.

He will have to prove that he can handle the workload. His career high in innings was last year when he reached 109.1. Obviously, he’ll need to increase that at some point if he were to be taken seriously as a starting candidate. And then he’ll have to continue to maintain a heavy workload to where he’ll be able to make 30 starts on a big league roster. His stuff is so electric that it’s tempting to let him settle into a bullpen role, but if he can still get the same dominance from his pitches with more work, 180 innings is more valuable than 70.

So far, he hasn’t been pushed too hard in the early days of the season. Monday’s start was the highest pitch count he’d reached in 2013 when he hit 98 pitches. To an extent he may always have higher pitch counts. Strikeout pitchers tend to use up more pitches because they’re trying to miss bats and their stuff is good enough to miss bats. But he’ll also give up less fluke hits that happen to find a whole since less balls will end up in play. It’s rare for a batter to score on a strikeout, but they can score after reaching from a seeing eye single on a perfect pitch they happened to get in the right spot.

That being said, Ventura’s averaging 17.18 pitches per inning this year, which is still on the high end, but one or two more efficient starts can settle that number down.

Right now, Ventura is overmatching the Texas League. By the end of the month, he could easily be pushing the Royals to give him a look in Omaha to see if his dominance continues. He’s showing right now that he’s ready for the tryout.

I think this is just as important for the fans as well. We all have our rituals that make us feel as if we somehow hold sway over the outcome of a game. There’s the effervescent rally cap, a classic maneuver a fan makes when his team is struggling late in the game.

Down here in Bolivar, there are two bros that watch/follow Royals games with me and we all have our own rituals for coaxing victory out of they guys. We all went on a stadium tour a few months ago and at the end, we got some Royals swag to take with us. The hats we got were a little bit crummy. They weren’t even snap-backs. They were like those lame belt-loop ones that hardly anyone our age wears.

Anyways, after mocking these hats incessantly, my buddy Trev has started rocking his during the game because every time he wears it, we start scoring runs. It’s a little eerie, really.

My other buddy Jake has a bat signed by Amos Otis that he likes to hold during the games. It makes the players play better. For reals.

I, myself have this awesome Royals light that I turn on after each Royals win. Much like, Paul Revere….or something.

What do you guys do?

I want some weird traditions, man.

Though they only played five games, which is tough on diehards like myself, the Royals did well in those five games going 4-1, which brings their overall record to 17-10. That’s very encouraging, especially when they took two of three from the Rays and the White Sox (we’ll see if they can get the sweep tomorrow). For that, they get an A grade for this week.

Here are some themes for you:

Apr 30, 2013; Kansas City, MO, USA; Kansas City Royals third baseman Mike Moustakas (8) connects for a home run in the sixth inning of the game against the Tampa Bay Rays at Kauffman Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports

‘Call the park ranger because the Moose is on the loose!’

I promised a friend that once Mike Moustakas started heating up, I would use this Dan Plesac line (potentially misquoted) that he and I find hilarious. It’s kind of hokey, and that’s why I like it. It might be an overstatement to say that Moustakas is back or that he’s hot or that he has “found it,” but last week, I predicted a turn around from him. And he certainly is turning it around. I’m not one to pass up an opportunity to point out when I’m right. So, I’m going to point it out while it’s still true. This last week, Moustakas went 6-16 with a double, a homerun, four RBI, two runs scored, and one walk. That’s a very solid week. He has also played tremendous defense in the Chicago series so far. It’s not a coincidence that Moustakas and Eric Hosmer are playing decent (not necessarily to their potential but decent), and the Royals have won four games in a row and look pretty dangerous.

The next step for Moustakas is to start driving the ball out of the park. His power seems to come in bunches so if he gets a couple of homers in the next few days, watch out. He could have a big May in the homerun column.

‘Life’s a dirty game. You gotta play dirty to win it.’

I’m sticking with quotes for the subheads this week. This is from The Wire, but it’s also in a hilarious standup comedy bit from Aziz Ansari (watch it). I use it to reference the dirty nature of statistical analysis, and by dirty, I mean noisy. And by noisy, I mean the stuff that doesn’t add up completely. Recently, Nate McLouth said something really stupid about advanced statistical analysis that was praised by this writer at MLB.com. But it is important to note that there are things teams do to beat odds or to squeeze every bit of win potential from their team that don’t show up statistically. This is why a team like the Orioles, or the Royals, can outplay their Pythagorean win-loss or perform better than their statistics profile says they should because they will do things to win a lot of one-run games. That said, those statistics are still very valuable, and most often teams can’t maintain outperforming their major statistical outputs.

I bring this up because the Royals are 17-10. Yesterday, the most recent baseball reference update, they were 16-10, but their Pythagorean win-loss was 15-11. So, in essence, they have stolen a game. The Royals are now 7-4 in one-run games, and 3-0 in extra-inning games. Does that mean, they’re getting lucky and eventually that luck will run out? No, not necessarily. It could mean they’re a team that is well constructed to win close games. More likely, it means that they’re a team that has pitched really well and not hit much, which leads to close games. In some ways, sabermatricians look at outplaying one’s Pythagorean win-loss, or one’s statistical profile, as a bad thing because it suggests that a high win total isn’t sustainable. But the Royals will probably need to out perform their statistical profile in order to make a playoff push this year, only because they get a lot of value from areas that are tougher to measure. They get value defensively. They get value on the base paths. These are the advantages they hold over teams like the Tigers. Those areas are tougher to measure than the value of hitting home runs and striking people out, but they allow you to win tight games.

Don’t get me wrong. I’m not saying that the “little things” are more important than smashing homeruns. They aren’t. But for the Royals, Life’s a dirty game. They gotta play dirty to win it.

‘We couldn’t do diddley-poo offensively.’

A classic Jim Mora sound byte. My personal favorite is “Playoffs,” but we’re not there yet. This is an obvious theme so I won’t spend much space on it: the Royals are scoring more runs lately. Before this week, they couldn’t do diddley-poo on offense. This week, they were shutout once to start the week but then scored eight, nine, two, and six runs respectively.

‘And like that, poof. He’s gone.’

Chris Getz!? Chris Getz!? Where are you!? Wait, I just remembered I don’t care. Getz has been MIA, and it’s been F-A-N-T-A-S-T-I-C. At first, Ned Yost fed the media some nonsense about allergies, which I had actually never heard before. What professional athlete misses a game because of allergies? These guys play through real injuries, and Getz can’t play because his eyes are itchy? The man plays on grass for a living. What’s he allergic to, extra-base hits? Walks? Hitting above .250? I thought the allergies thing was pretty funny. He started Saturday and Monday, but frankly Elliot Johnson and Miguel Tejada did a much better job in their turns at second base. They aren’t the answer but neither is Getz.

It’s been said before, but it’s Johnny Giavotella time. I know the arguments against, so no need to make them in the comments section. But at this point, Giavotella can’t be worse and has the potential to be much, much better.

That’s all for this week. Hopefully, next week I’ll be writing on the massive win streak the Royals are on.

This is why I’m not a meteorologist. I was way off.

Guthrie was excellent on Saturday night. Mandatory Credit: Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports

Guthrie cruised all night, working efficiently and relying on a great performance from his defense to record his first career complete game shutout as a big leaguer. Guthrie regularly worked quick innings, and had just 77 pitches through seven innings. He retired the leadoff batter in all nine innings and retired the side in order in six of nine innings, including a stretch of eleven batters in a row after Paul Konerko‘s fourth inning two-out double.

The Royals scored two runs in the bottom of the first on a Lorenzo Cain triple that scored Billy Butler and Eric Hosmer and those two runs were the only scored in the game. Just enough for Guthrie.

Again, he relied on his defense. He struck out just three batters, so the ball was in play all night. Mike Moustakas made a nice barehand play on a Tyler Flowers grounder, then Alcides Escobar made a barehand play of his own to retire Dewayne Wise. Moose later made a nice play in foul territory, running over to the Chicago dugout, leaning over the railing and catching a popup by Wise in the eighth.

Nobody hit the ball hard against Guthrie, but he did run into some trouble in the eighth. Flowers hit a one out single to right before the Wise popout, which was followed by an Alejandro de Aza single in an eight pitch at bat. Ned Yost had Tim Collins and Kelvin Herrera warming up in the bullpen, walked to the mound and had about a two second conversation with Guthrie before returning to the dugout. Guthrie got Jeff Keppinger on a groundout and finished the inning.

He returned in the ninth to an ovation from the Kauffman Stadium crowd and worked a perfect inning, pointing to Salvador Perez immediately after, then getting a Gatorade bath from Moustakas and George Kottaras.

Guthrie has worked 44.2 innings in his last six starts against the White Sox, allowing just two earned runs. That’s a 0.40 ERA. You’ll remember that Guthrie was 6.2 innings into a no-hitter against the White Sox last year in August before a controversial infield hit by Konerko broke it up (and was overruled as an error later, but not before Dayan Viciedo had singled in the eighth). Guthrie has now made 17 starts with the Royals without taking a loss, which is a club record. He had matched Paul Splittorff‘s team record in his last start.

The trio of James Shields, Ervin Santana and Guthrie have worked 119.1 innings now and have a cumulative ERA of 2.48. The Royals are a combined 12-5 when they’ve started this year.

Personally, I’d have suggested Omaha Storm Troopers, but that may have been too obvious (or there may have been licensing issues). Maybe they just wanted to be the good guys.

Saturday the #StormChasers will become the @omahaforce. @autismactionaap @starwars #StarWars #MayTheFourthBeWithYou twitter.com/OMAStormChaser…

— Omaha Storm Chasers (@OMAStormChasers) May 1, 2013

Other Notes:

-Danny Duffy is working his way back from Tommy John surgery and is reportedly working around 94-97 mph with his fastball in workouts, according to Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports.

Why are teams legit scared of 15-10 KC? Danny Duffy, almost a year removed from Tommy John, is sitting 94-97. Could join rotation late June.

— Jeff Passan (@JeffPassan) May 4, 2013

April 22, 2012; Kansas City, MO, USA; Kansas City Royals pitcher Danny Duffy (23) delivers a pitch against the Toronto Blue Jays during the fourth inning at Kauffman Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Peter G. Aiken-USA TODAY Sports

Duffy mentioned on Twitter that he’s throwing three innings on Monday so things seem to be on track. If he comes back in June, he presents the Royals with options. My guess is that he’ll start out in the minors beyond a rehab assignment just to be sure that he’s got everything back. If the Royals rotation is healthy and pitching well, I don’t think they’d change much up, but the door would be open for trades.

Right now Wade Davis is struggling and Luis Mendoza (when he can get a start) has been roughed up, so we can’t just assume everything will be going well. Duffy would make for a nice boost once he rejoins the rotation, though.

Duffy’s also reaching out on Twitter to an overseas fan. You may have heard of SungWoo Lee. He goes by the handle @KoreanFan_KC on Twitter, lives in South Korea, and often is up early in the morning to watch Royals games. He doesn’t have an American visa, has never been to the states but dozens of Twitter followers have started to root for him to make it to Kauffman Stadium. They’ve sent care packages so that he could have his first Royals jersey (among other things).

Good Morning! My happy Vallentine day gift from Kansas City, I’m smiling all day long! Thnx @thefakened @evulm0nkey twitter.com/Koreanfan_KC/s…

— SungWoo Lee(@Koreanfan_KC) February 14, 2013

Well now Duffy is getting in on the action, offering a deal. If SungWoo can get the time off of work (a difficult task in an always-working Korea), Duffy will cover his flight.

@koreanfan_kc just let me know when bro! DM the dates and we’ll get you out here, get some @oklahomajoesbbq in you and get you to The K.

— Danny Duffy (@DannyDuffy805) May 2, 2013

It’s too easy to be cynical sometimes, and I think it’d be easy to point to this and say it’s an athlete trying to look good or show goodwill for the team. But after talking with Duffy a few times for the Kansas City Baseball Vault there’s nothing but sincerity here. I think that’s cool – it makes it one of those sports stories that go beyond what happens on the field. The community of fans is strong and having a vocal player join in makes it easier to be a fan.

-The Cubs were reportedly scouting the Royals farm system. They’ve been working to rebuild their farm system and the Royals have prospects. There could be a match as the Royals try to add a player that might help them at the big league level. The idea has been tossed out about David DeJesus being acquired as a platoon or full-time option if Jeff Francoeur fizzles out.

Rany Jazayerli talked about the idea back in March, then again on Friday and it’s not a wild idea. The Royals may not have to give much up because, at this point, DeJesus is just a platoon option. Since leaving Kansas City, he’s been miserable against left-handed pitching.

Sometimes it’s a good idea to just dive in without a plan and see what happens, and that’s what we did this week. There was plenty to discuss about the Royals and we tried to get everything in from clubhouse leadership to Jeff Francoeur‘s role. We also talked about the offense’s troubles, focusing on Mike Moustakas and Eric Hosmer. We brought up questions about sending players down to make adjustments, which lead to talking about Johnny Giavotella versus Chris Getz.

Then we covered the minor leagues, checking in on some of the big name players, marveling that Adalberto Mondesi wants to be called Raul (“Doesn’t that make three Raul Mondesis?”) and wondering about Jason Adam‘s struggles in Double A. We also had to confront Bubba Starling‘s early troubles.

You can catch up on old episodes of the Kansas City Baseball Vault here on Kings of Kauffman. Episodes of the Royalman Report are available on the site as well.

Follow the Kansas City Baseball Vault on Twitter and Facebook for future programming updates. Also follow Kings of Kauffman for article updates, discussion and other information.

It’s early, but some of those sentiments are changing.

May 1, 2013; Kansas City, MO, USA; Kansas City Royals center fielder Lorenzo Cain (6), left fielder Alex Gordon (4) and right fielder Jeff Francoeur (21) celebrate at the end of the game against the Tampa Bay Rays at Kauffman Stadium. The Royals won 9-8. Mandatory Credit: Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports

With winning comes celebration and for everything the Royals have done well on the field, a few of the intangible elements have creeped into the story. It’s just the nature or sports that a team doesn’t win without some kind of intangible quality, and while I can accept that to an extent, I don’t think it’s enough to significantly sway performance (but it certainly can’t hurt).

This week, the Royals have started to get a little demonstrative. There was Jeff Francoeur‘s greeting of Eddie Rodriguez after a triple in Tuesday’s win. Then there started to be all of this reporting on the hand signals the players do when they reach base. Josh Vernier did some digging:

•  Francoeur and Alex Gordon will share a “you can’t see me” move (mimicking WWE star John Cena).
• Mike Moustakas and James Shields use a “C” to represent California.
• Jarrod Dyson, Lorenzo Cain, and Moustakas make a “wolfpack” sign, as Vernier describes.

Then Billy Butler tried a few things out. He singled on Wednesday, then pointed to his bicep, grinning like a kid in a sandlot.

From Royals.tumblr.com

Later in the same game, he doubled and was motioning on second base as if he was playing air guitar. Apparently, though, as a nod to his Country Breakfast nickname, he was acting as if he was frying bacon, flipping it twice for each base on the hit. Joel Goldberg called it “Air Bacon” on FSKC.

So winning obviously is making the team feel good, and the morale is high. Winning will do that, but James Shields brought along a strong clubhouse presence to Kansas City along with a nasty changeup, and it’s paying dividends (so says the narrative). He’s started a tradition in the clubhouse involving a neon deer. The “King of the Game” gets to turn the light on after every win and everyone celebrates. I’m sure it keeps spirits up and, as Shields says, it allows the team to focus on the win and not someone’s 0-4 day, so there’s no harm in it. That’s not to say that if there was a neon light-up deer in the clubhouse last year that the Royals would have won. It still takes talent.

But they’re winning, so national writers are taking notice. Buster Olney of ESPN acknowledged that judging baseball results after just one month can be pointless, but mentioned that the Royals have played tough teams and won despite struggles from Eric Hosmer and Mike Moustakas.

Jonah Keri discussed Ervin Santana‘s contributions so far in light of the initial reactions to the trade. The slider has been a big weapon early on, but Keri pointed out that Santana has to keep it up and that there are still question marks – but he didn’t go so far as to dismiss the idea of the Royals having something brewing, either.

SI.com’s Jay Jaffe looked at research into hot starts by other teams in baseball over the years and suggest that there’s reason for optimism for the Royals this year. It’s encouraging. Did you know that since 1995 (and the wild card), of the 54 teams to start exactly 15-10, 26 made the playoffs in some form? Jaffe has other nuggets like that in his column.

So it’s easy to see why the clubhouse in treating this season’s start like it’s the feel-good montage of a baseball movie where the underdog succeeds against all odds. They’re trying to be that team this year. Whether they get the happy ending or not remains to be seen, but more people are paying attention the more they win.

May 2, 2013; Kansas City, MO, USA; Kansas City Royals grounds crew members remove the tarp from the infield after rain before the game against the Tampa Bay Rays at Kauffman Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports

Ervin Santana didn’t strike out seven in four innings and Alex Gordon didn’t have an RBI single to score Elliot Johnson after a non-stolen base. Just forget that you even saw it or heard it happen.

The Royals and Rays tried to get the third game of their series in Kansas City in, but the elements had other ideas, as a freak May snowstorm (preceded by rain) hit the Metro area. But they tried. The Royals took a lead in the bottom of the third and Ervin Santana was getting a lot of swings and misses, but between the top and bottom of the fourth the umpires stopped action and called for the grounds crew to put the tarp on the field.

May 2, 2013; Kansas City, MO, USA; The Kansas City Royals mascot Sluggerrr holds a snow shovel on the field after the postponement of the game between the Kansas City Royals and Tampa Bay Rays at Kauffman Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports

It was understandable. Conditions were miserable. Denny Mathews called it the worst he’d seen and that if it was outdoor hockey, the game would be canceled. It was cold, wet, and windy. The Royals shut down the upper deck and any fans with tickets up there were invited to the field level. There was standing water on the field and it had an effect on the action. Gordon’s single (or not-single) probably would have been fielded in normal conditions. Ben Zobrist tried to backhand the ball but the ground was so unsteady, he couldn’t get a good effort on it and it slipped through.

The crew put drying agents on the field at one point and it seemed like the Royals would be able to resume action with the idea of getting the game to official status before calling things off, but in the end, the window never opened and they postponed the game.

In most circumstances, I doubt they would have tried to play the game out, but Tampa Bay only makes one trip to Kansas City a year. Now, both teams have to find an off day that they have in common, then would have to get clearance from the MLBPA if the matchup would create more than 20 days in a row of play for either team. The other possibility is to add a game to the Royals trip to Tampa Bay, but that would make a 5/2 split in favor of Tampa home games.

They were stuck going for it – the Rays expressed disappointment about even trying after the postponement, while the Royals were questioning why not just gut it out with only one inning left to go. Of course, Kansas City had a one run lead, so if the score was reversed, perhaps the opinions would be as well. I couldn’t blame the Rays for being upset if the Royals had gotten through five innings, made the game official, and had it called, just as I couldn’t blame the Royals for trying to push through to get the game going.

Instead, though, literally nobody won.

May 2, 2013; Kansas City, MO, USA; Kansas City Royals shortstop Alcides Escobar (2) makes the tag on Tampa Bay Rays right fielder Matt Joyce (20) trying to steal second base in the third inning at Kauffman Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports

In the big picture, it’s just one game and perhaps never even gets made up. If it does, though, it’ll put the Royals in a spot where they don’t have a day off for a long stretch. Kind of makes the five scheduled off days in April seem silly, huh?

It hasn’t just been the Royals running into this sort of thing. The Twins have had multiple snow-outs, as have the Rockies. The Rays had a game postponed against the Red Sox last month. That’s why there are more off days in April usually, but five for the Royals seems excessive, especially now that they’re going to have to negotiate a potential makeup date.

The Royals have played four series in a row in which a game was postponed. Starting in Boston, when a manhunt shut the city down, the Royals made up a postponement with a double header, then traveled to Detroit where the opening game of the series was lost to rain. That game hasn’t been made up, but with more trips to Detroit in store, it won’t be as difficult as the Rays game. Then the Royals had to make up a game against the Indians, playing another double header. Then today’s postponement cost another gameday.

Since Opening Day on April 1, the Royals have had games scheduled on 27 of 32 days. They’ve actually played a full, official game on only 23 of them.

Guess what? It doesn’t look very good for tomorrow either. At least that’s a White Sox series which could feasibly be made up relatively easily.

Apr 30, 2013; Kansas City, MO, USA; Kansas City Royals third baseman Mike Moustakas (8) is congratulated by center fielder Lorenzo Cain (6) after Moustakas hit a two run home run in the sixth inning of the game against the Tampa Bay Rays at Kauffman Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports

The month of May will be the ultimate test for the new and improved Kansas City Royals. Beginning with the current series versus the Tampa Rays (which started on April 30), the Royals schedule is stacked with what appears to be one challenge after the next with the exception of a brief respite (knock on wood) when the team visits the Houston Astros for a three game set.

After Tampa leaves town the Royals will face: the Chicago White Sox, Baltimore Orioles, New York Yankees, Los Angeles Angels, Oakland A’s, Houston Astros, the Angels (again), St. Louis Cardinals, and then wind up the month (and carry into June) against the Texas Rangers.

Yikes.

After game two versus Tampa (which is underway as I type this up), the Royals with either be 3 or 5 games above .500 for the season…the question on my mind is this: will they be above .500 on June 1?

The good news is that a couple of these teams are struggling. We already mentioned the lowly Astros. As of this writing, the Angels are just 10-17. The Royals play a combined 10 games against these two opponents, which should help. But…the Angels will have to get hot at some point, won’t they? And the White Sox (this weekend’s opponent) have a losing record – but they are always a thorn in this team’s side.

The Yankees seem beatable with a loaded disabled list. They still sit at 16-10, but the Yankee mystique seems to be lacking this year, and the Royals get them at Kansas City this time around.

The Orioles, Cardinals, and A’s seem like they could be trouble, though. And of course the Rangers are always tough to beat.

It won’t be easy (obviously). The Royals offense has been lacking. For all the talk of a need for pitching last winter, we all just assumed the offense (which was also bad) would get better. That Mike Moustakas and Eric Hosmer would figure it out and round out the lineup with some power. So far…not so much. Although Moose FINALLY had a big game, which included his first 2013 home run, in game 1 versus Tampa.

Apr 30, 2013; Kansas City, MO, USA; Kansas City Royals starting pitcher James Shields (33) delivers a pitch in the first inning of the game against the Tampa Bay Rays at Kauffman Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports

With the upcoming schedule, the Royals are going to have to show more balance than we’ve seen thus far. The starting pitching can’t be leaned on as a crutch every night. The offense has to get more consistent. We are seeing signs that it could happen, but it’s got to happen pretty much every time out there in May. The starting pitching (at least those front three) has to keep it up. We haven’t seen much of Mendoza (though he hasn’t been overly impressive) and Wade Davis is a mixed bag. The rotation is much improved, though, no doubt. With James Shields, Ervin Santana, and Jeremy Guthrie in the rotation, the Royals should avoid any prolonged losing streak.

The fire this team has (which took center stage in Tuesday’s rally against the Rays) is the wild card in all of this, in my opinion. We don’t need every guy to go out and play or pitch a perfect game. We just need a team that refuses to quit. That’s what James Shields brings to the table. Well…that and phenomenal pitching. Shields has instilled a fiery, never say die attitude in this clubhouse. And it might be just enough to carry this team through when slumps strike or (god forbid) injuries hit.

So…where will this team be on June 1? It’s hard to say, but I know this much…it’s going to be a hell of a fun ride. And for the record (you didn’t think I’d cop out on a prediction, did you?), I think when May comes to an end the Kansas City Royals will have a 28-25 record and be very much in the thick of things. Who knows…maybe when they make a trade this year, the team will be helping itself for a change, rather than sending key pieces to playoff contenders. Wouldn’t that be a nice change of pace?

So far this year, though, they haven’t found the stands very often, hitting 15 homers, tied with the Minnesota Twins for last in the American League. Eric Hosmer and Mike Moustakas have struggled, particularly with extra base hits, Butler has hit three homers, but only hit his third double on Wednesday night so he’s not quite on track power-wise either.

Blame the cold. Blame the off days. Blame nothing. They hit 15 homers.

HitTrackerOnline.com keeps track of velocity off the bat, distance, and height of every home run in the league. It also compares those hits to every stadium and determines if a homer would be a no doubter or a lucky one, and gives a total of how many stadiums would hold the ball in the yard. It’s an interesting site to lose some time on.

Longest Royals homer in April: Alex Gordon’s grand slam off Darin Downs in Detroit. This is 443 feet of goodness.

If you’re curious, that ball was measured at 108.8 mph off the bat.

The shortest homer came off the bat of Alcides Escobar when he took Ryan Dempster over the Green Monster in Fenway Park. It traveled 361 feet.

The most lucky home run, though, was actually Billy Butler’s grand slam off Cole Hamels went 364 feet and left the only stadium it could have (considering the location compared to other stadiums according to HitTrackerOnline).

While lucky (after it was ruled a homer and not a double), that turned a 4-2 deficit into a 6-4 lead and the Royals would go on to win the game. It was the most valuable homer (in regards to Win Probability Added) of the month for the Royals with .377 WPA. Next closest? The first homer off the bat of Mike Moustakas that gave the Royals a 3-2 lead on Tuesday night (.363 WPA).

Overall, right-handed batters hit nine homers (six off righties, three off lefties) while left-handed batters hit the other six (four off righties, two off lefties).

The most unlikely homer? I give that a tie.

Chris Getz hadn’t hit a homer since July 19, 2009 off Jeremy Guthrie. That streak snapped on April 16 when he pulled a Kris Medlen pitch into the right field seats:

He still hit it 399 feet, though, which is impressive considering he hasn’t really been close to that in the regular season since joining the Royals. The hit itself, though, was a no-doubt homer once it left the bat.

I’d nominate George Kottaras‘s homer in Boston as the least likely. Consider the circumstances. It was his first start of the year, and while he’s shown power before, he’d only had one plate appearance since spring training concluded. Then, when he did make contact, it was only in the air for a couple of seconds before falling over the short fence in right field. The ball reached an apex of 58 feet (the lowest homer of the month).

The Royals have a home run from every position player on the team so far except for Eric Hosmer, Miguel Tejada and Jarrod Dyson (Elliot Johnson homered Wednesday night). They’ve gotten a homer from every spot in the order except the cleanup spot. Go figure.

If the weather is, indeed, going to factor into the Royals ability to hit homers, they should be able to exceed 15 in may and beyond, but the effects of Kauffman Stadium (which suppresses homers) and some struggling hitters may keep Ned Yost from realizing dream of having a lineup loaded with 20-homer guys.

Last year the Royals rotation was a train wreck.  In descending order by number of starts there was Bruce Chen (34 starts), Luke Hochevar (32), Luis Mendoza (25), Will Smith (16), Jeremy Guthrie (14), Jonathan Sanchez (12), Felipe Paulino (7), Danny Duffy (6), Vin Mazzaro (6), Everett Teaford (5), Nathan Adcock (2), Jake Odorizzi (2), Ryan Verdugo (1).  That is 162 games of suck.  Granted, it would have looked significantly better had Duffy and Paulino not blown out their elbows, but they did.  This led to an average start length of 5.5 innings and a lot of bullpen work.

Only two of the names from last year’s parade of horrors are still a part of the rotation.  That has made Royals games a lot more watchable, and has pushed the innings per start number up to 6.3 innings so far this year.  The starter this year are averaging almost a full inning more per start, or an increase of a little over 14% better than last year.  That’s great, but when I am watching the games there is a pitch counter on the FSN broadcast and I feel like it is still trying to tell me something.  Last night was the worst of them, until the Royals finally got to Alex Cobb in the sixth.  At the end of 5 innings Cobb had thrown only 56 pitches (and only 88 when they pulled him), and despite our pitchers pitching pretty deep into games they still always seem to have higher pitch counts.

Pitchers for the opposing team have combined this year for an average start of just over 6 innings.  So, despite the improved rotation, impatient Royals hitters are giving most of the starting advantage back by failing to knock out the opposition.  If you go look at ESPN’s stats page (expanded batting) there are 99 qualified players right now and eight of them are Royals.  I ranked them all by pitcher per plate appearance, and we have three patient hitters on the team; Billy Butler at 4.13 P/PA(24^th),  Eric Hosmer at 4.11(26^th), and

Apr 30, 2013; Kansas City, MO, USA; Kansas City Royals left fielder Alex Gordon (4) breaks his bat while hitting in the sixth inning of the game against the Tampa Bay Rays at Kauffman Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports

Alex Gordon at 4.0(34^th).

Jeff Francoeur and Alcides Escobar are slightly below average in seeing pitches at 3.88 (54^th) and 3.84 (60^th) respectively.  That leaves four very impatient hitters.  Remember I am saying that the rest are impatient with respect to Frenchy.  Lorenzo Cain sees 3.62 (82^nd) pitches on average and right there with him is Salvador Perez at 3.56 (86^th).  Chris Getz would be slightly ahead of those two with a lackluster 3.68, but is not qualified right now.  That leaves the least patient hitter of the bunch, 90^th out of 99 qualified big leaguers this season, Mike Moustakas with a 3.48 P/PA.

This team is unlikely to get significantly better at seeing pitches.  I would love to see upgrades at second and right, but there is no guarantee that whoever took over those spots would be better.  All I know is that the opposing starters are getting deeper into games than I would like, and that the obsession with pitch counts makes running up the opponent’s count a very valuable tool.

Mandatory Credit: Peter G. Aiken-USA TODAY Sports

When the Royals acquired Alcides Escobar in the Zack Greinke trade, the organization knew they were getting a player who still had some growing to do offensively, but would bring a solid glove to a premium position.

In his first season in a Royals’ uniform, Escobar lived up to those expectations. His line for the 2011 season was not pretty: .254/.290/.343, good for an OPS+ of 74. Many fans were not pleased, but were willing to live with a weaker bat as long as Escobar kept playing such tremendous defense at shortstop. They were also hoping some offensive improvement was on the horizon.

Prior to the 2012 season, Escobar was signed to a 4 year, $10.5M contract extension with option years that could keep him in Royal blue through 2017 for just over $21 million total. At the time, it seemed like the Royals made a good move, as long as Escobar’s defense didn’t fall off too much. However, even the best defensive players need to have some kind of offense to prove they deserve that kind of money.

In the 2012 season, Escobar started to make his case.

Escobar finished last season with a line of .293/.331/.390 to go along with 35 steals and 42 extra-base hits. He wasn’t great at drawing walks, and he struck out 100 times, but he still was able to put up an OPS+ of 98. All in all, a perfectly acceptable line for a very good defensive shortstop.

Even after the season, there were still concerns that his production was a bit of a fluke, at least in part due to a career-high BABIP of .344. That, along with his poor BB% and K% resulted in a lot of fans expecting some regression from the 26 year-old Venezuelan in 2013.

It’s still early in the season, but thus far, it seems Escobar didn’t get the memo that he was supposed to slide back.

Prior to the game against the Rays last night, Escobar had a line of .290/.337/.452, with 3 HR and a .339 wOBA. Before you suggest he’s just getting lucky, consider the fact that his current BABIP is .289, which, combined with a LD% of 22.4 (roughly in line with last year’s number) and his speed, suggests that Escobar has actually been on the wrong side of luck so far, generally speaking. Granted, his HR/FB is currently 12.5%, which is almost certainly unsustainable, so I wouldn’t expect close to 20 HR over a full season. I do think he could end up with 10-12, however.

While the spike in power has been great to see, the numbers that stick out most to me in Escobar’s stat line are his BB% and K%. Currently, Escobar has a walk percentage of 6.9, which is below the Major League average, but quite a bit higher than his career average. His strikeout percentage currently sits at 7.8, which is extremely good considering his career number in that category is over 13. Obviously the small sample size caveat still applies, but the big changes in these statistics, along with the power surge, suggest that Escobar may be learning what pitches he has the best chance of driving and what pitches he should let go. This may not tell the whole story, however.

After diving deeper into the numbers, it seems Escobar is seeing fewer strikes in the zone than he ever has (48.5%), while swinging at and making contact with more pitches out of the zone (36.1% and 80.8%, respectively). These stats suggest that Escobar could regress some, as swinging at so many balls out of the strike zone typically is not a strong strategy for long-term success. That being said, Escobar has always been a guy with above average contact percentages, so he shouldn’t turn into a complete pumpkin. If he can continue working a walk every now and then, his strikeout rate can rise some without a huge negative impact to his overall productivity and value to the team.

What exactly is his value to the team, you ask?

Prior to last night’s game, here is where Escobar ranked among American League shortstops:

AVG: 3^rd

OBP: 3^rd

SLG: 2^nd

wOBA: 2^nd

WAR: 1^st

All while playing great defense for a team just half a game out of first place. Put that together, and think about this:

Right now, Alcides Escobar has a very good argument that he should be the AL starting shortstop in the All-Star Game.

Granted, there is still a lot of baseball to be played before the starters are announced, and even if Escobar maintains his current level of play, there’s no guarantee he’d get the nod due to the total joke of the fan voting process. If it was solely based on merit, Jed Lowrie is the only other option, since he’s the only SS having a better offensive season than Escobar, but his numbers are screaming for a regression based on an abnormally high BABIP and LD%. Regardless, Escobar is currently outperforming guys like Asdrubal Cabrera, Jhonny Peralta, and Elvis Andrus. Andrus, by the way, just signed a contract extension worth $120 million over 8 years. In case you forgot, Escobar is locked up for less than 20% of that for the next 5 seasons.

Even if Escobar regresses some, that contract is looking like an even better deal for the Royals than we previously thought. Andrus and Escobar have been roughly similar in their performance levels over the past 2 seasons. Andrus gets a little more love from the defensive metrics, while Escobar provides a little more power at the plate, but overall, their productivity is very comparable.

Paying a fraction of the cost for similar results is money well spent. Escobar still has a way to go before we can call his contract the best in baseball, over the contracts of guys like Matt Moore, Evan Longoria, and even fellow Royal, Salvador Perez. But there is no question that Escobar has one of the more team-friendly contracts in the sport.

It’s hard to call it a success.

Humberto Arteaga, Elier Hernandez and Bubba Starling wait for their turn in the cage. Photo: Michelle Meade

Starling opened the year by going 2 for his first 26, a stretch that included 11 strikeouts in 28 plate appearances. Both hits were singles and he walked just twice. When you pay a player $7.5 million as a first round selection, you hope for much more than a .077/.143/.077 start to the season.

It confirmed a lot of the opinions about how Starling would have extreme bust potential, but that it was offset by enough upside if things came together. Starling was pitched as the prototypical five-tool player. So far he’s got four of those working fairly well for him.

The problem, though, is that the most important tool hasn’t been working and it’s hampering everything else. Bubba Starling has had trouble simply hitting the ball. If he can’t hit the ball, then it doesn’t matter how much power he has, and he’s not getting on base to utilize his speed. Reports are that his defense and his throwing arm are coming along fine, but he wasn’t signed to be a no-hit all-field center fielder.

After that initial 2-for-26 stretch, Starling has hit better, but he’s still not there. Since April 12, Starling has hit .246/.313/.508. Better, for sure. He has eight extra base hits in that stretch, including four homers.

Even with more power and better contact, he’s still struck out in nearly a third of his plate appearances in this favorable stretch. He’s hit left-handed pitching much better, but in 19 plate appearances he’s struck out six times. He has five hits otherwise against lefties. That gives him a dynamic split: .927 OPS when facing lefties, but just .569 against righties.

Jason Parks of Baseball Prospectus has filed a scouting report that discusses Starling’s struggles (it was written during his first seven games, but Starling has had some of the same contact issues at every stage from instructional days to now) in light of his athletic prowess. Parks’s theory is that Starling, as a multi-sport athlete, isn’t recognizing pitches as well as other players his age or younger who focused more on baseball growing up. The slight delay in picking up a pitch is enough to keep him from making good contact (if he makes it at all). Now, when he connects, it can go a long way, but he’s not connecting enough to realize his potential.

It’s still possible that Starling could turn it around. He’s still young and the Royals knew he’d be more of a slow development project when they drafted him. But Parks makes the comparison to young children learning language compared to older people. Young people are able to absorb things differently since connections are still forming and the brain adapts. He referenced Rany Jazayerli’s study on draft age and future performance. Players who were of a younger draft age seem to provide greater return.

Starling was nearly 19 when the Royals drafted him. He’s still going to be a project. He’s hit better as the month has gone on, so perhaps that bodes well for the rest of the year and it’s far too soon to call him a bust. Realistically, though, we can’t quite pencil him into the Royals 2015 lineup just yet.

Apr 29, 2013; Kansas City, MO, USA; Kansas City Royals starting pitcher Wade Davis (22) delivers a pitch in the first inning against the Cleveland Indians at Kauffman Stadium. Mandatory Credit: John Rieger-USA TODAY Sports

To bring it closer to home take a look at the 1985 Royals. In June they lost three  in a row to the struggling Mariners. The starting pitchers for Seattle those three games?  Frank Wills (70 ERA+), Matt Young (86 ERA+) and Bill Swift (88 ERA+). The ’85 team is actually a decent comp for this years team. They had a strong rotation, good bullpen, and an offense that had only three above average hitters. Sound familiar? The Royals may turn out to be closer to the 2011 team record-wise but we don’t know that yet. It’s April and there’s still a whole lot of ball left to be played.

***

If you haven’t heard, MLB is expanding their presence on YouTube. If you want to see Bo Jackson run up a wall or rob  a home run, or if you just want to watch game six and game seven of the 1985 World Series, well now you can. Be warned though, with the good comes the bad.

That’s the idea behind a project cooked up by a group of Royals fans, organized by Brett Parker. If you tour the Negro Leagues Baseball Museum, you’ll read (and if you’re lucky, hear) stories about how fans would go straight from church on Sundays to the baseball park, dressed in their Sunday best. It was a time when men wore suits and hats, when women wore dresses, and America turned out to baseball games as if they were events.

Dressed to the Nines. Courtesy of Brett Parker

On Sunday, May 5, the Royals will face the Chicago White Sox at 1 p.m. and a group of fans have dubbed it “Dress to the Nines” day at the K. They’ve gotten Bob Kendrick of the Negro Leagues Baseball Museum on board, they’ve gotten Royals Hall of Famer Willie Wilson to celebrate the idea.

We can’t recreate everything about the era, but with the release of “42″ in theaters, CGI has recreated Ebbets Field, the Polo Grounds, and Shibe Park. Fantastic casting of Chadwick Boseman (who looks quite like Jackie Robinson) sells the period even better. It’s clear that the old-time baseball of yesteryear is still of interest to fans all around.

Baseball is surrounded by larger than life personalities. Babe Ruth’s name is spoken with haunting reverence. Ted Williams is ordained as a god of hitting. Name after name – even those none of us have ever seen play in person – is brought up with such a sense of longing, of nostalgia, that the mystique washes over us.

Think of the movie Field of Dreams. While the movie may have had a similar effect if it had been about an Iowa farmer who tears up his crops to build a baseball field that then introduces Joe Schmo – unknown to us in the audience, but presented as a great in the film – the real power comes from its ability to inject the names of days gone by into the conversation. Shoeless Joe Jackson. Mel Ott. Gil Hodges. Names we recall. Names we recognize. Baseball is rooted, perhaps moreso than any major sport, in an appreciation for the greats who have come before the current stars.

Fans at the Polo Grounds in suits and hats. (via Wikimedia Commons)

So it’s only natural for fans to look back to bygone eras and wonder what it might have been like to witness a game. What would it feel like to be in the stands to watch Stan Musial face off against Sandy Koufax? Nevermind the battle on the field – what would the stands feel like? How would the game progress differently? For a few hours, at least, you could take in the sights and sounds of a game in style. A nod to the past.

Men in suits & hats; ladies in their dresses & hats to see the @royals vs White Sox on “Dressed to the Nines” Day at The K on 5/5!

— negroleaguesmuseum (@nlbmprez) April 29, 2013

Royals fans haven’t had a lot to cheer on the field over the years, but when given the opportunity to get behind a fun and interesting idea, they usually rise up. Royals fans are the group that launced Billy Butler’s “Country Breakfast” nickname into the national scene. We were so raucous in backing up our lone All-Star in own ballpark that it inspired multiple national columnists to try to scold us for the gall of booing Robinson Cano. We got Alex Gordon close to an All-Star selection in 2011 through the Final Vote. We can recognize a good idea and latch onto it.

And this is a good idea. It’s not established by the Royals. It’s not put forth by a radio station. It’s put out there by fans who want to put a unique twist on their attendance of the game and tip a cap towards an older era.

For more information, including organization of a group photo and any specific ticket sections, check out the event’s Facebook page.

UPDATE: Fox 4 Kansas City has picked up the idea and had Bob Kendrick on to speak briefly about it.

UPDATE of the UPDATE: Sam Mellinger of the Kansas City Star wrote a column about Parker’s idea.

Another UPDATE: Parker was on the Ballgame on ESPN 1510 discussing the event. Dane Iorg and some George Brett were also on the show later so it’s maybe worth a listen.

Naturally, the worry is how the team will stack up against the rest of the A.L. Central. So far, the results are positive. They’ve played each team this month and, regardless of a win or loss against Cleveland tonight, will only have LOST one series against a division foe. That series loss came in the first three games of the year. Overall in the month of April, they’ve gone 7-4 against the division.* They dropped two out of three to the White Sox, swept the Twins, split with the Tigers and will either take three out of four from the Indians or split with them.

*Again, pending tonight’s game

Let’s take a look at how the rest of the division is faring in-house:

Cleveland Indians - As of yet, the Indians have only played the White Sox and us. They’re 3-2 against the Sox (one game got rained out) and they’re currently 1-2 against us for a record of 4-3 against the division.

Minnesota Twins- The Twins have actually won series over both the division favorite Detroit Tigers and the Chicago White Sox this month. What’s hurt them was getting swept by the Royals earlier in the month. They haven’t played the Indians yet and currently hold a record of 4-4 against the division.

Chicago White Sox- The White Sox won their first series of the season against the Royals, but have struggled against the rest of the division ever since. They have lost series against both the Indians and Twins. They have yet to play the Tigers. Their divisional record is currently 4-6

Detroit Tigers - The (mostly) consensus pick to win the division, the Tigers lost their first series of the year against the Twins and split their series with the Royals for a divisional record of 2-3. They haven’t played the Indians or the White Sox yet.

The Royals are the only A.L. Central team to have played against each of their divisional foes. As stated above, aside from a slight sputter out of the gates against the White Sox, they’ve played well in these games. It’s going to important for them to have continued success against these teams as they push forward into May.

CURRENT STANDINGS

1. Kansas City Royals – (13-9)

2. Detroit Tigers – (13-10)

3. Minnesota Twins – (11-10)

4. Chicago White Sox – (10-14)

5. Cleveland Indians – (9-13)

Apr 28, 2013; Kansas City, MO, USA; Kansas City Royals second basemen Chris Getz (17) makes a throw to first over Cleveland Indians base runner Lonnie Chisenhall (8) during the fifth inning at Kauffman Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Peter G. Aiken-USA TODAY Sports

Another five-game week for the Royals, and I think a large majority of fans have had enough off days. When a team like the Royals is playing winning baseball, momentum is important, and it’s tough for them to build momentum when they have off days every other day. Grrrr!

The Royals went 3-2 this week, which brings their overall record to 13-9. Not bad, but the sting of losing to Cleveland and some bum named Corey Kluber 10-3 makes me want to grade this week out at a B. The Royals get some props for splitting with Detroit and for taking the first two from Cleveland, thus assuring a series split, but there is no reason they should have lost that game to Kluber. They didn’t even look like they wanted to play the second game of that double header, and I’m finding it more and more difficult to stomach the terrible lineup decisions of playing Chris Getz and Jeff Francoeur.

Onto the themes before I start breaking stuff:

Moose, out of the woods?

Not yet, but he’s looking better at the plate than he was (here’s a post from Michael Engel about it). He’s popping the ball up less, and he’s taking more pitches and walks. In Sunday’s first game, he took three walks and had a base hit. In the second game, he went 1-4 with a double. I haven’t been a fan of the conversation about sending him down. To me, that’s ridiculous. There’s no one who can perform much better than him, and I don’t see anything at this point to indicate that it’s more than just a significant valley.

If a problem does occur, it will come just as Eric Hosmer’s did last year. He’s start to press, lose confidence, change some stuff, and before you know it, the wheels fall off. I see Mike Moustakas as a more resilient guy than Hosmer so I think this is the start of his turn around. His numbers for this whole season will probably never rebound completely, but that doesn’t really matter. If he can forget the season before now, and start helping the team win again, all will be forgiven.

And he needs to stop kicking the ball around, too.

Split the good teams; bash the bad ones

There’s no great science behind winning in baseball. Beat the teams you should. That’s pretty simple. This week, the Royals got the opportunity to show their fanbase that they could employ this strategy to a degree. They faced Detroit first, a team that by all accounts is “better” than the Royals. In a series shortened by rain, they split two games. Nicely done. Then, they faced the Cleveland Indians, a team that’s struggling right now. They took two of the first three, and they’ll try for three out of four tomorrow. If they end up splitting this series, that’s a disappointment.

In my very humble opinion, this Cleveland series was a wonderful chance to get on a nice winning streak. Cleveland was ripe for a sweep. I think The Royals let them off the hook Sunday night, but they can still win the series, which is the ultimate goal.

Ned Yost benches a ton

The bench play this week has been interesting. Yost has dipped into it quite a bit this week, and right now, the Royals are getting solid play from George Kotarras and Jarrod Dyson and less than stellar play from Elliot Johnson and Miguel Tejada. Early on, Yost seemed to have a personal vendetta against Kotarras, but lately, he’s showing why he’s probably good enough to start for many teams. He’s taking walks and hitting with power. That’s what he does.

Dyson, who I will reiterate should be starting for this team, played like a champ in the early game Sunday going 2-4 with two RBI and a stolen base. If only he had the chance to play everyday … hmmm … who makes that decision?

For some reason, though, Johnson isn’t even touching the ball. He’s got seven strikeouts in 17 plate appearances. I was excited about getting Johnson as the PTBNL in the James Shields deal, but that excitement is contingent on him making contact with the ball.

That’s all I have for this week. Let’s hope we’ve seen the end of rainouts, off days, Francoeur, and Getz.

September 14, 2012; Kansas City, MO, USA; Kansas City Royals third basemen Mike Moustakas (8) celebrates with teammate Jeff Francoeur (21) after hitting a solo home run against the Los Angeles Angels during the second inning at Kauffman Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Peter G. Aiken-USA TODAY Sports

The Royals gave him the day off in the first game of the series against Cleveland, sitting him against lefty Scott Kazmir. Prior to that, Moustakas had doubled and walked in his last two plate appearances in the Royals extra innings win in Detroit. He pinch hit against the Indians on Saturday, grounding out.

He entered Sunday’s double header with a .152/.222/.197 line. Awful for sure.

But he has shown some signs of getting back on track, even if slowly. In Game 1, he walked three times and singled. Two of his walks started two out rallies and the third came with the bases loaded. In Game 2, he went 1-4 with a hard-hit double to left field. That put him on base in five of eight plate appearances and added two hits to his totals.

He leaves Sunday with a .169/.263/.225 line. Still not good, but compared to where he started the day, a lot of improvement. More than just bumping his numbers up, he looked more comfortable at the plate and drove the ball better on his double. The Royals said it may be a couple of days before the adjustments he’d been making started to bear fruit and maybe – maybe – this is the first step towards getting right.

Moustakas is certainly not out of the danger zone yet. He had an error in the nightcap of the double header that could have been a double header but should have been at least a force out. If he turns the double play, the inning is over. Instead, the Indians scored two runs in the first. There’s always the concern that a player takes offensive struggles to the field with them and maybe he’s pressing in the field. On Wednesday he had another big error that led to four runs against the Tigers.

So it’s little by little, step by step. Moustakas gained a bit of statistical traction on Sunday, but it stands out as a bigger day because the Royals are only 22 games into the season and any big day makes up a bigger percentage of the season’s numbers. Got to love the small sample size fluctuations. More doubles, more home runs will start to put minds at ease. There are positives to be found in a day like Sunday, though. Moustakas wasn’t flailing, trying to make something happen (and, in fact, has the second most walks on the team behind Billy Butler).

Maybe it’s just grasping for straws and Moustakas has to end up in Omaha no matter what, but if that turns out to be the case, seeing him get above the Mendoza line before it happens would be a bit more comforting.

Apr 28, 2013; Kansas City, MO, USA; Kansas City Royals pitcher Jeremy Guthrie (11) delivers a pitch against the Cleveland Indians during the first inning at Kauffman Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Peter G. Aiken-USA TODAY Sports

Often, in evaluating players, scouts and analysts will throw out comparisons to other players to simplify their report. Wil Myers was drafted as a catcher but, being lanky and an advanced hitter, many compared him to Dale Murphy, an easily recognized name who went from catcher to the outfield. Comps are usually used for prospect evaluation and, while no two players are alike, they provide a quick snapshot of what kind of a player someone might turn out to be.

But these comparisons aren’t seen often beyond the minor league level. A player hits the big leagues and they become their own player and other players become compared to them. Beyond the Box Score has come up with an interesting project recently, though, that examines a combination of Pitch F/X data to compare current pitchers to each other.

There’s a lot of math that is beyond my comprehension, but basically, Stephen Loftus has done the heavy lifting by analyzing pitch type, velocity, movement, location and release point to come up with correlations. There are obvious outliers – R.A. Dickey isn’t similar to anybody, for instance – but it’s an interesting idea. I went through to find who the strongest comps (correlation of .800 or better) were for the Royals pitching staff. Here’s what turned up:

James Shields

Drabek has a career WHIP of 1.671 and has already had two Tommy John surgeries.

Ervin Santana

Nicasio is a high risk, high upside guy for the Rockies. The Guthrie similarity is interesting but not surprising (more on that in a moment) and Bud Norris was a popular trade target for many teams.

Jeremy Guthrie

Jeremy Guthrie, it turns out, compares to a great number of pitchers. Some are big time names. Cy Young candidates like Justin Verlander (hence the title of this column), Zack Greinke, Jordan Zimmermann, CC Sabathia and others. Given the way that Loftuss approached his study, it tends towards the prototypical pitcher. Dickey is far from anyone comparatively, because nobody else throws a knuckleball, nor would most throw it as hard as Dickey if they did. Similarly, Joe Smith of the Indians is a sidearm/submariner, so his unique release point would skew results.

Guthrie is a typical pitcher, though, and since he throws hard, has a typical assortment of pitches, and mixes locations, he gets very similar scores to the rest of the group. My favorite comp here? Jason Hammel, who was traded for Guthrie prior to the 2012 season, gets the top correlation.

Wade Davis

These comparisons come from 2012 data, so finding to late-inning relievers as comps for Davis isn’t too surprising since Davis spent the whole season in Tampa’s bullpen.

Luis Mendoza

Luke Hochevar

That’s a nice list of names. That backs up the feeling of many that Hochevar has strong stuff, but it never comes together.

Bruce Chen

Wolf is a soft-tossing lefty. I included Dickey because Chen has the highest similarity score of anyone on the team, mostly because his velocity will be most similar to Dickey’s.

Last year’s relief pitchers are a bit more difficult to correlate. Part of that is probably sample size as well as the idea that they’ll use their top two or three pitches, but won’t have to dip into their fourth or fifth pitch often if at all, so they’ll have less to connect with other pitchers.

I included Halladay in Holland’s similarity scores because it’s the least similar (by these measurements) score of any Royals pitcher to another.

Obviously, since the data is just based on Pitch F/X, the actual performance of the pitcher in question isn’t accounted for, so that allows for Luke Hochevar to be compared to Zack Greinke, but it’s an illustration of how approach and an arsenal of pitches can be similar, but other factors come in to play. There’s no distinction between high leverage or low leverage situations. They don’t factor in pitch sequencing or the batters faced. There are also intangibles in play. Justin Verlander may reach back and go for the 99 mph fastball in a count with a batter while Jeremy Guthrie may go with an entirely different pitch (mostly because he doesn’t hit 99, but he can touch 96) or location in the exact same situation.

So it’s tempting to make these similarities more than they are. It’s an idea that might be incorporated down the line for other rookies or minor leaguers though. It’s one thing to see it on the field, but to also apply the data could make those “This guy is the next Verlander” comparisons even stronger. Does it mean the Royals have Verlander-light in Guthrie? Of course not. But it’s an interesting application of data and mathematics to player analysis.

But let us pause and remember those Royals who left the organization over the winter with a little “Where are they now?” examination.

The Trade

Myers at the plate. (Photo: Minda Haas)

One of the biggest moves of the MLB offseason was the Royals trade of Wil Myers, Mike Montgomery, Jake Odorizzi and Patrick Leonard for James Shields, Wade Davis and (eventually) Elliot Johnson. It’s natural to look wistfully at Durham to see how the Royals prospects are faring.

Wil Myers

I’m sure there’s a little part of every Royals fan who was hoping that Myers would flop outside of the Royals organization. Just a little. So far, however, that’s not the case. The Rays are playing service time games and stashing him in Triple A, where Myers is, understandably, raking.

He’ll probably make it to the big leagues in June.

Of course he wasn’t the only part of the trade. The Royals also sent Jake Odorizzi and Mike Montgomery (as well as Patrick Leonard) to Tampa.

Mike Montgomery

Montgomery gave up four runs in three innings during spring training and, so far, hasn’t been able to tap back into the talent that made him a top pitching prospect as recently as 2011. He was placed on the seven day disabled list on April 21 after making just one start for Durham.

Jake Odorizzi

Odorizzi is still able to strike batters out, but he’s still averaging less than six innings a start due to more pitch count questions. He’s striking out 12.3 batters per nine innings so far, which bodes well for some success. If he becomes a bit more efficient he’ll be leaning more towards the #2/#3 starter ceiling rather than his #4 safe zone.

Patrick Leonard

Things haven’t gone as well for Leonard since the trade. He showed good power and on base ability with the Burlington Royals in the Appalachian League last year, but in Low A Bowling Green, he’s striking out a quarter of the time but with no power to show for it. He’s still just 20 years old and there’s time to grow, so if I’m a Tampa fan, I’m not worried, but from a Royals fan perspective, I’m not sweating losing his bat.