Apr 12, 2013; Kansas City, MO, USA; Kansas City Royals catcher Salvador Perez (13) drives in a run with a single in the first inning against the Toronto Blue Jays at Kauffman Stadium. Mandatory Credit: John Rieger-USA TODAY Sports

I start with an observation and a statistic. The Royals see very few pitches; that’s the observation. Here is the statistic. They see 3.75 pitches per plate appearance, which is next to last in the American League; the Angels are last at 3.74.* Of course, conventional wisdom states that the more pitches a team sees the better. It means the other team has to burn through pitchers more quickly, allowing the patient team to face the opposing team’s bullpen more often. Typically, bullpen pitchers aren’t as good as starting pitchers, which is why they are in the bullpen. Seeing more pitches also allows hitters to understand a pitcher’s stuff better, thus, giving those hitters a better chance at the plate. The top five teams in P/PA are Boston, Oakland, Minnesota, Cleveland, and Toronto. Four of those teams rank above league average in runs scored per game with Cleveland, Oakland, and Boston scoring 5.09, 4.79, and 4.76 R/G respectively.

*All stats in this post come from before the first game of the Angels series.

Digging a little deeper into the numbers, it’s fairly easy to see why the Royals see so few pitches: 1) The Royals swing at 47.7 percent of pitches, second only to the Angels; 2) They make contact with 81.2 percent of pitches they swing at, which is fourth in the AL; 3) They swing at 32.4 percent of pitches outside the strike zone and make contact with those pitches 72.2 percent of the time. That’s tops in the league. From this data we get a picture that our eyes probably already began constructing as we watched the games. The Royals swing at a lot of pitches, but they don’t strike out that much. Instead, they put a lot of balls in play. This might be ok if it were true that all balls in play are created equal, but as has been one of my battles for at least two years against the notion that BABIP is a matter of “luck,” all batted balls are not created equally. This data hints at that. The Royals make contact with a lot of balls outside the strike zone. Some of those are fouled off. Some of those drop as hits, but a large majority of those are put in play weakly for outs. To state it simply, the Royals put too many balls in play. They put balls in play that should be left alone.

This doesn’t just include balls out of the strike zone. It also includes pitcher’s pitches, balls placed on the corners and low. These are tough pitches that make hitting safely difficult. If a hitter swings at a pitcher’s pitch, he is most likely going to miss it or put it in play weakly. We already know the Royals actually don’t swing and miss much, only 8.7 percent, which is ninth in the American League (Jeff Francoeur be damned). Instead, they put the ball in play weakly a lot.

It’s an interesting and incredibly frustrating combination. The Royals swing at pitches they shouldn’t, but instead of striking out at an Astros-like rate, they simply hit weak ground balls to the second baseman. Of course, it seems like striking out is worse, but maybe we shouldn’t take that for granted. If Francoeur swings at a pitch outside the strike zone on the first pitch and hits a weak ground ball to second, that’s one pitch and one out. If he swings and misses at three bad pitches, that’s three pitches and one out. Sure, his ball in play gave him the slight chance to get on base (error, infield single, bloop hit, weak ground ball through the infield). But it also cost him two pitches. It’s not a coincidence that starting pitchers go deep against the Royals. The only way they have of running up pitch counts is to get a lot of hits because they don’t see enough pitches otherwise.

So, if I had to boil their philosophy down into a few words it would go like this: When you see a pitch you think you can hit, hit it. Simplified, but it seems like this is how they approach hitting. This is, in fact, a bad philosophy. It discounts all the benefits that come from seeing more pitches for the belief that one may get the best pitch to hit early in the count. It’s actually predicated on fear, a fear of missing out on the pitch early in the count that would have been the best one to hit. This scenario plays out all the time in real life when people decide to settle for something they can hit instead of waiting, gathering more information, and hitting the pitch they should hit. Why is this bad? Because more information is almost always better than less information i.e. seeing what a pitcher is throwing and understanding it is better than not. Plus, pitchers live to exploit hitters willing to swing at quality strikes. Swinging early and often places them right in their comfort zones and misunderstands the game of hitter versus pitcher.

September 20, 2012; Kansas City, MO, USA; Kansas City Royals third baseman Mike Moustakas (8) at bat in the ninth inning of the game against the Chicago White Sox at Kauffman Stadium. The Royals won the game 4-3. Mandatory Credit: Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports

In the hitter versus pitcher battle, it begins with the hitter at a slight disadvantage because it takes four balls to walk and just three strikes for an out, which is why I never understood why people call 2-2 an even count. That’s not even; that’s advantage pitcher, same with 1-1, but I digress. At 0-0, the pitcher has virtually no pressure to pitch to any one area of the strike zone or using any particular pitch. The information slate is nearly blank for that particular plate appearance. At 0-1, there is greater leeway to throw fringe pitches, thus, greater incentive to stay out of the middle of the plate. At 0-2 this is doubly true, which is why hitters who get in 0-2 counts produce negative results much more often. The pitcher expands the strike zone and so do hitters to protect. But in some ways, being 0-2 creates an advantage for the hitter because the hitter now has information about what influences exist on the pitcher. They now know that the pitcher is probably going to consciously stay away from the middle and is much more likely to throw a certain pitch (out pitch).

This is all conversely true as well. In 1-0, the hitter is aware that more pressure exists in that moment to throw a strike. And so on and so on. All the while, the hitter is reformulating his approach or at least, he should be. In 2-0, he should be thinking one pitch in one spot. If he doesn’t get that pitch in that spot, he shouldn’t swing. In 2-1, he can recalculate. As the count turns in the pitcher’s favor, he will expand to cover the plate but he will also understand the potential pitch selection better.

Without seeing more pitches, none of this happens. Or rather, less of this happens. It keeps the Royals from getting into counts like 2-0, 3-1, 2-1, counts that help the conscientious hitter more than the pitcher. I say it helps the conscientious hitter because it really does very little for the Francoeurs of the world who really only understand the notion of swinging at all cost.

The Royals BABIP right now is .302, which is fifth in the AL—not bad. Of course, they never walk so they need their BABIP to be in the .315 range to score a significant amount of runs. Do you see the perfect storm of why they aren’t producing offensively? Swinging at non-premium pitches. Putting balls in play weakly. Pitchers going very deep into games. It starts with their approach at the plate. Yes, they aren’t hitting for power, but that’s in large part because they are swinging at non-premium pitches and putting them in play early in counts. Yes, they aren’t walking, but that’s because they have a philosophy that doesn’t stress patience at the plate (By the way, the top five teams in walk percentage are all above league average in runs per game including the Tigers who are tops in runs per game at 5.37. They are also tops in BABIP, which means they’re walking and then hitting those runners in).

There might be some who want to blame the hitting coach(es) for this. It’s really not their fault(s). This is an organizational problem, and Kevin Seitzer was just as disinterested in seeing pitches. The organization as a whole does not stress the importance of seeing pitches and consequently does not emphasize it enough in the minors nor consider it enough when constructing a roster.

And because it’s organizational, it’s a problem not easily solved.

That’s the record James Shields had after his first 8 games started in 2012.

We talk all the time on here about how overvalued the “W’ is as a statistic, but unfortunately, the world we live in still hasn’t seemed to consider the ridiculous ways an individual gains a “win” or a “loss.” Michael talked last week about the way Shields’ record seemed “Grienkesque” in the way he’s compiled a 2-3 record despite an ERA of 2.48 with 53 strikeouts and 14 walks

Guess what Shields’ record was after his first 8 games in 2011?

3-1 (ERA – 2.08) 51 SO and 13 walks

There are some conflicting statistics here. Shields’ 2011 and 2013 stats are very similar and yet the discrepancy in record is pretty glaring. 7-1 to 3-5.

However, in the first 8 games of 2012, James had an E.R.A that was actually more than an entire run higher than his current progress. The difference? In 2011 and 2013, Shields was getting an average of 4.125 runs per game from his offense. In 2011, it just worked out that he was on the right side of the fence. In 2012, Shields, though still good, wasn’t anywhere near his current progress. However, his offense was averaging 5.125 runs a game.

All of this to say, I’m kind of bummed out that James has been getting slapped with so many losses. Not because I think anything of the “win,” but because I hear too many people talking about “wins” and “losses” as if they are the one thing that defines a pitcher’s success.

It gives me a headache.

So to all of you people, Shields has had a great start to the year. Don’t be morons. If a pitcher is good, it makes sense that he would probably have more wins than losses when the season ends. If he pitches well and his team provides him any sort of offense, he’s likely to do all right in that department.

However, if his team is struggling offensively (as the Royals have been this season, though it looks like they brought their bats to the game against the Angels last night) then it’s not too unbelievable to see James hang a 3-5 record through the first 8 games of the season.

Just stop acting like his record is important and have faith that the bats will start to pick up and help steer the course of his record back onto the straight and narrow.

It was a tough week to swallow. The boys in blue went 1-6, with four of those losses being by two runs or less. For their sloppy play as much as their terrible record over this week, I’m giving them a D for this week. If they continue playing like this, which I don’t think they will, some of the Royals faithful might need to be placed on psyche watch. Including me. I will lead us to the padded cells.

To the themes:

I have the power (if you grew up when I did you should get this reference)

Early in the week, the Royals showed why Kauffman Stadium really isn’t a homerun park by smashing the ball out of Camden Yards. They hit six homeruns in the Baltimore series, which even though they lost the Baltimore series, had some fans breathing a little easier. It showed that maybe the Royals aren’t completely incapable of hitting homeruns. It’s really hard for a team to win if it can’t hit the ball out of the yard. Conversely, it gets easier to win if you hit balls out of the yard, as the Yankees proved during their sweep of the Royals. I’m not sure this power surge is sustainable; I’ve never really seen the Royals as a homerun hitting team, but the guys they count on for power (Eric Hosmer, Billy Butler, Mike Moustakas, Alex Gordon) have to find a way to hit the ball over the fence now and again or the Royals are once again going to be a team whose high batting average doesn’t correlate to high run totals (there are other factors as well though).

May 6, 2013; Kansas City, MO, USA; Kansas City Royals right fielder Jeff Francoeur (21) cannot make the catch in right field in the sixth inning of the game against the Chicago White Sox at Kauffman Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports

Lineups and linedowns

Does anyone on Earth know what Ned Yost is doing right now?  This week saw the move that many of us, including me, hoped for: Jeff Francoeur and Chris Getz riding pine …  sort of. A day after Jarrod Dyson and Elliot Johnson took their places, they were right back in, indicating that it might be a platoon situation that would have Francoeur hit against lefties. But Yost told the keyboard cowboy Bob Dutton that this is not a platoon situation (see Dutton’s twitter feed for confirmation). Then what the hell is it? On Sunday, Yost decided to really screw with anyone who wants logic from the world by starting Dyson in center and Francoeur in right against a righty. Huh? Where am I right now? Is this … what the … what!?

The Getz situation seems to have a temporary fix but isn’t really resolved. Johnson started every game of the New York series, which really starts begging the question, what role is Getz filling at this point? I don’t know anyone who thinks Johnson is the answer at second base so it’s probably just a matter of time before the Royals do something to change that situation (hopefully call up Johnny Giavotella and send down Getz).

As for the Francoeur-Dyson situation, anyone’s guess is as good as mine at this point because something other than logic seems to be driving Yost’s decision making. Or I should say a logic that I cannot decipher is driving Yost’s decision making. It makes sense to righty-lefty platoon the two; I wouldn’t do it that way, but it makes sense. It makes sense to simply sit one of the two and play the other. It does not make sense to randomly play one and sit the other based on a seemingly arbitrary set of factors or perhaps no factors at all.

It’s one of those situations that makes me wonder if I’m losing my mind and slipping into an alternative reality.

The best defense is a good defense

I’m one of those people who went into this season believing in the defensive capability of the Royals. They have great range, I thought. They’ll get to balls no other team can, I thought. This will be one of the edges they have over Detroit, I thought. It turns out it doesn’t matter how much range you have if you can’t catch or throw the ball. The Royals made nine errors this week. That’s right—nine errors THIS WEEK. The Arizona Diamondbacks don’t have nine errors all season (8). The Royals have 27, fifth most in the Major Leagues, and they haven’t played as many games as anyone above them on that list.

I do love the range, and I do love the playmaking potential. But damn! Nine errors in one week? There are many little league teams looking at that and saying Put a tent on that circus.

In times like these, I’m reminded how very simple this game is at times: You throw the ball. You hit the ball. You catch the ball.

Oh Billy-Billy-Billy

Butler has one job. He only has one job because he only does one thing well: hit. Ok technically, he’s a two-tool player. He can hit for average and he can hit for power, but it’s all a part of the only thing he can do … hit. Luckily for him, hitting for average and power happen to be two very valuable and fairly rare tools. Those tools will keep him in country breakfasts for the rest of his life.

But right now, he’s looking less like Country Breakfast and more like a breakfast Hot Pocket in that he’s terrible and making me want to vomit. I love Butler. I really do. He seems like a swell guy, and he’s a great hitter. But he’s hitting .228/.350/.377. For a designated hitter, that’s pretty bad, though the on-base does cushion the blow a bit. For a designated hitter who is supposed to be the team’s offensive force, the team’s best hitter and run producer, it’s very bad. Right now, he’s strugglin (read it with a country accent for emphasis).

It’s actually not surprising at all that the Royals aren’t winning right now with Butler adding virtually no value. Over the last week, he has been an empty spot in the lineup. Normally, Butler is one of the most comfortable looking players at the plate. There are times when it looks like he was born and raised in the batters box, but right now, he’s guessing, flailing, getting frustrated and confused. It’s hard to watch for those of us used to his mastery at the plate. Yes, I think he’ll turn it around, but perhaps that’s because I know that he has to for this team to win.

That’s all I got. Time to drown my sorrows in a Milky Way cake while crying uncontrollably and listening to Tears for Fears.

Apr 28, 2013; Kansas City, MO, USA; Kansas City Royals center fielder Jarrod Dyson (1) singles in a run against the Cleveland Indians during the fourth inning at Kauffman Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Peter G. Aiken-USA TODAY Sports

I don’t want to sound the all-clear too early, but according to the most trustworthy person I’ve never met—Bob Dutton—Ned Yost is considering making some changes to the lineup that include less of Jeff Francoeur and Chris Getz. (awkward white-guy dance in my office while no one is looking to celebrate).

I’ve been one of the most critical of the decision to play these two but most especially of the decision to play Francoeur (I was actually in favor of giving Getz the job out of Spring Training because he earned it and Giavotella did nothing to earn it). So, what I want to do with this post is make the argument I’ve made repeatedly across different posts but in one central location for those who have yet to read it. The argument is that Jarrod Dyson should be starting over Francoeur.

Francoeur and Dyson represent a somewhat difficult line of comparison for two reasons: 1) they are remarkably different players; 2) Francoeur has a lot of major league data to draw from while Dyson has relatively little. In order to accommodate these differences we’ll have to use that thing that allows statistics to come to life: intuition. This is closely related to reason and logic but is not exactly the “eye test” so beloved by Hawk Harrelson. It’s a way of seeing what is most important to the ultimate goal of winning baseball games within the context of what’s already in place.

So, here is the overarching reason Dyson should be playing instead of Francoeur: he’s more valuable. We’ll start with their WAR, a flawed but useful stat. In 2012, the only season in which Dyson saw significant playing time, he posted a 1.6 bWAR (that is WAR as it is measured by Baseball Reference). To be fair to Francoeur, I won’t use his 2012; it was the worst season of his career. Instead, I’ll look at 2011, arguably the best season of his career, in which he posted a 3.2 WAR. Dyson posted his 1.6 WAR in 330 PA and a few handfuls of pinch running appearances. Francoeur earned his 3.2 WAR in 656 PA.

If we simply ended the analysis there, Francoeur looks to have a case for starting over Dyson or at the very least, has a case that he is equally as valuable. If we extrapolate Dyson’s 2012 into a full season, it equals roughly Francoeur’s 2011. We can really keep this analysis extremely simple by asking ourselves one question at this juncture. Do we think Dyson’s 2012 was an anomalous career year? If it wasn’t, if Dyson can do better or at the very least consistently do that well, the answer is simple; Dyson should be starting over Francoeur. Because we know that Francoeur’s 2011 was a pretty anomalous career year. He hadn’t had a year like 2011 since 2007, and those two seasons represent his only full seasons over 3.0 bWAR. He has had a few seasons of negative bWAR, meaning he was worse than replacement level. This includes his 2012 season in which he was -2.3 WAR and the worst everyday player in baseball.

I feel confident saying that Dyson is either capable of maintaining his 2012 performance or improving on it. Here is why. Dyson only hit .260 in 2012, which isn’t great. That comes from a fairly good BABIP of .318, which is pretty typical of fast guys who can scrounge a few extra singles with their legs. The reason his batting average was so low was an unusually high strikeout percentage of 17 percent. It was usually high because in the minors his strikeout rate has been closer to the 12-14 range. However, he also had a fairly high walk rate of 9.1 percent. This gave him a .328 OBP. Dyson’s value is very tied to his ability to get on base and run. As he gets more acclimated to major league pitching, it seems reasonable to believe that he can cut down on strikeouts and put more balls in play, which with his speed should mean a higher average and thus, a higher on-base percentage.

But even if Dyson doesn’t improve at all, even if he only ever performs at the level he did in 2012, he would be a better starting option than Francoeur because the likelihood of Francoeur replicating his 2011 is very low. The inconsistency experienced over his career is remarkable, but if there was a safe bet on Francoeur’s WAR over a given season, it would lie in the .5-1.5 range, which is just below major league average. Nothing to write home about. Some argue that Francoeur has value because he has more power than Dyson and a better arm. This is partially true. Francoeur’s arm and power are better than Dyson’s but not nearly enough to make up the difference in range defensively or the wildly inconsistent offense. And really, Dyson has a pretty good arm as well.

The fact is Dyson is a better defender, and he’s the better base runner by a wide margin. Those are certainties, not open for debate among reasonable people (though I’m sure a few will chime in below to show just how “reasonable” they are). At the plate, Dyson has shown that he can hit at a level that is comparable to Francoeur in every area but power and probably exceeds Francoeur in on-base ability, especially once given a chance to get more plate appearances and see more major league pitching.

The only question people should really be asking is why did this take so long for Yost to see?. 

P.S. Many favor a platoon split in this situation (Francoeur against lefties; Dyson against righties). While this is more appealing than seeing Francoeur all the time, I’d still start Dyson over Francoeur against most lefties. That’s how little faith I have in Francoeur’s ability to be a positive force at this point, regardless of his career numbers against lefties, which aren’t terrible. And while Dyson is worse against lefties, he hasn’t had enough big league plate appearances to tell us that the split will be significant enough to take the dire action of playing Francoeur.

I think this is just as important for the fans as well. We all have our rituals that make us feel as if we somehow hold sway over the outcome of a game. There’s the effervescent rally cap, a classic maneuver a fan makes when his team is struggling late in the game.

Down here in Bolivar, there are two bros that watch/follow Royals games with me and we all have our own rituals for coaxing victory out of they guys. We all went on a stadium tour a few months ago and at the end, we got some Royals swag to take with us. The hats we got were a little bit crummy. They weren’t even snap-backs. They were like those lame belt-loop ones that hardly anyone our age wears.

Anyways, after mocking these hats incessantly, my buddy Trev has started rocking his during the game because every time he wears it, we start scoring runs. It’s a little eerie, really.

My other buddy Jake has a bat signed by Amos Otis that he likes to hold during the games. It makes the players play better. For reals.

I, myself have this awesome Royals light that I turn on after each Royals win. Much like, Paul Revere….or something.

What do you guys do?

I want some weird traditions, man.

Though they only played five games, which is tough on diehards like myself, the Royals did well in those five games going 4-1, which brings their overall record to 17-10. That’s very encouraging, especially when they took two of three from the Rays and the White Sox (we’ll see if they can get the sweep tomorrow). For that, they get an A grade for this week.

Here are some themes for you:

Apr 30, 2013; Kansas City, MO, USA; Kansas City Royals third baseman Mike Moustakas (8) connects for a home run in the sixth inning of the game against the Tampa Bay Rays at Kauffman Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports

‘Call the park ranger because the Moose is on the loose!’

I promised a friend that once Mike Moustakas started heating up, I would use this Dan Plesac line (potentially misquoted) that he and I find hilarious. It’s kind of hokey, and that’s why I like it. It might be an overstatement to say that Moustakas is back or that he’s hot or that he has “found it,” but last week, I predicted a turn around from him. And he certainly is turning it around. I’m not one to pass up an opportunity to point out when I’m right. So, I’m going to point it out while it’s still true. This last week, Moustakas went 6-16 with a double, a homerun, four RBI, two runs scored, and one walk. That’s a very solid week. He has also played tremendous defense in the Chicago series so far. It’s not a coincidence that Moustakas and Eric Hosmer are playing decent (not necessarily to their potential but decent), and the Royals have won four games in a row and look pretty dangerous.

The next step for Moustakas is to start driving the ball out of the park. His power seems to come in bunches so if he gets a couple of homers in the next few days, watch out. He could have a big May in the homerun column.

‘Life’s a dirty game. You gotta play dirty to win it.’

I’m sticking with quotes for the subheads this week. This is from The Wire, but it’s also in a hilarious standup comedy bit from Aziz Ansari (watch it). I use it to reference the dirty nature of statistical analysis, and by dirty, I mean noisy. And by noisy, I mean the stuff that doesn’t add up completely. Recently, Nate McLouth said something really stupid about advanced statistical analysis that was praised by this writer at MLB.com. But it is important to note that there are things teams do to beat odds or to squeeze every bit of win potential from their team that don’t show up statistically. This is why a team like the Orioles, or the Royals, can outplay their Pythagorean win-loss or perform better than their statistics profile says they should because they will do things to win a lot of one-run games. That said, those statistics are still very valuable, and most often teams can’t maintain outperforming their major statistical outputs.

I bring this up because the Royals are 17-10. Yesterday, the most recent baseball reference update, they were 16-10, but their Pythagorean win-loss was 15-11. So, in essence, they have stolen a game. The Royals are now 7-4 in one-run games, and 3-0 in extra-inning games. Does that mean, they’re getting lucky and eventually that luck will run out? No, not necessarily. It could mean they’re a team that is well constructed to win close games. More likely, it means that they’re a team that has pitched really well and not hit much, which leads to close games. In some ways, sabermatricians look at outplaying one’s Pythagorean win-loss, or one’s statistical profile, as a bad thing because it suggests that a high win total isn’t sustainable. But the Royals will probably need to out perform their statistical profile in order to make a playoff push this year, only because they get a lot of value from areas that are tougher to measure. They get value defensively. They get value on the base paths. These are the advantages they hold over teams like the Tigers. Those areas are tougher to measure than the value of hitting home runs and striking people out, but they allow you to win tight games.

Don’t get me wrong. I’m not saying that the “little things” are more important than smashing homeruns. They aren’t. But for the Royals, Life’s a dirty game. They gotta play dirty to win it.

‘We couldn’t do diddley-poo offensively.’

A classic Jim Mora sound byte. My personal favorite is “Playoffs,” but we’re not there yet. This is an obvious theme so I won’t spend much space on it: the Royals are scoring more runs lately. Before this week, they couldn’t do diddley-poo on offense. This week, they were shutout once to start the week but then scored eight, nine, two, and six runs respectively.

‘And like that, poof. He’s gone.’

Chris Getz!? Chris Getz!? Where are you!? Wait, I just remembered I don’t care. Getz has been MIA, and it’s been F-A-N-T-A-S-T-I-C. At first, Ned Yost fed the media some nonsense about allergies, which I had actually never heard before. What professional athlete misses a game because of allergies? These guys play through real injuries, and Getz can’t play because his eyes are itchy? The man plays on grass for a living. What’s he allergic to, extra-base hits? Walks? Hitting above .250? I thought the allergies thing was pretty funny. He started Saturday and Monday, but frankly Elliot Johnson and Miguel Tejada did a much better job in their turns at second base. They aren’t the answer but neither is Getz.

It’s been said before, but it’s Johnny Giavotella time. I know the arguments against, so no need to make them in the comments section. But at this point, Giavotella can’t be worse and has the potential to be much, much better.

That’s all for this week. Hopefully, next week I’ll be writing on the massive win streak the Royals are on.

Naturally, the worry is how the team will stack up against the rest of the A.L. Central. So far, the results are positive. They’ve played each team this month and, regardless of a win or loss against Cleveland tonight, will only have LOST one series against a division foe. That series loss came in the first three games of the year. Overall in the month of April, they’ve gone 7-4 against the division.* They dropped two out of three to the White Sox, swept the Twins, split with the Tigers and will either take three out of four from the Indians or split with them.

*Again, pending tonight’s game

Let’s take a look at how the rest of the division is faring in-house:

Cleveland Indians - As of yet, the Indians have only played the White Sox and us. They’re 3-2 against the Sox (one game got rained out) and they’re currently 1-2 against us for a record of 4-3 against the division.

Minnesota Twins- The Twins have actually won series over both the division favorite Detroit Tigers and the Chicago White Sox this month. What’s hurt them was getting swept by the Royals earlier in the month. They haven’t played the Indians yet and currently hold a record of 4-4 against the division.

Chicago White Sox- The White Sox won their first series of the season against the Royals, but have struggled against the rest of the division ever since. They have lost series against both the Indians and Twins. They have yet to play the Tigers. Their divisional record is currently 4-6

Detroit Tigers - The (mostly) consensus pick to win the division, the Tigers lost their first series of the year against the Twins and split their series with the Royals for a divisional record of 2-3. They haven’t played the Indians or the White Sox yet.

The Royals are the only A.L. Central team to have played against each of their divisional foes. As stated above, aside from a slight sputter out of the gates against the White Sox, they’ve played well in these games. It’s going to important for them to have continued success against these teams as they push forward into May.

CURRENT STANDINGS

1. Kansas City Royals – (13-9)

2. Detroit Tigers – (13-10)

3. Minnesota Twins – (11-10)

4. Chicago White Sox – (10-14)

5. Cleveland Indians – (9-13)

Apr 28, 2013; Kansas City, MO, USA; Kansas City Royals second basemen Chris Getz (17) makes a throw to first over Cleveland Indians base runner Lonnie Chisenhall (8) during the fifth inning at Kauffman Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Peter G. Aiken-USA TODAY Sports

Another five-game week for the Royals, and I think a large majority of fans have had enough off days. When a team like the Royals is playing winning baseball, momentum is important, and it’s tough for them to build momentum when they have off days every other day. Grrrr!

The Royals went 3-2 this week, which brings their overall record to 13-9. Not bad, but the sting of losing to Cleveland and some bum named Corey Kluber 10-3 makes me want to grade this week out at a B. The Royals get some props for splitting with Detroit and for taking the first two from Cleveland, thus assuring a series split, but there is no reason they should have lost that game to Kluber. They didn’t even look like they wanted to play the second game of that double header, and I’m finding it more and more difficult to stomach the terrible lineup decisions of playing Chris Getz and Jeff Francoeur.

Onto the themes before I start breaking stuff:

Moose, out of the woods?

Not yet, but he’s looking better at the plate than he was (here’s a post from Michael Engel about it). He’s popping the ball up less, and he’s taking more pitches and walks. In Sunday’s first game, he took three walks and had a base hit. In the second game, he went 1-4 with a double. I haven’t been a fan of the conversation about sending him down. To me, that’s ridiculous. There’s no one who can perform much better than him, and I don’t see anything at this point to indicate that it’s more than just a significant valley.

If a problem does occur, it will come just as Eric Hosmer’s did last year. He’s start to press, lose confidence, change some stuff, and before you know it, the wheels fall off. I see Mike Moustakas as a more resilient guy than Hosmer so I think this is the start of his turn around. His numbers for this whole season will probably never rebound completely, but that doesn’t really matter. If he can forget the season before now, and start helping the team win again, all will be forgiven.

And he needs to stop kicking the ball around, too.

Split the good teams; bash the bad ones

There’s no great science behind winning in baseball. Beat the teams you should. That’s pretty simple. This week, the Royals got the opportunity to show their fanbase that they could employ this strategy to a degree. They faced Detroit first, a team that by all accounts is “better” than the Royals. In a series shortened by rain, they split two games. Nicely done. Then, they faced the Cleveland Indians, a team that’s struggling right now. They took two of the first three, and they’ll try for three out of four tomorrow. If they end up splitting this series, that’s a disappointment.

In my very humble opinion, this Cleveland series was a wonderful chance to get on a nice winning streak. Cleveland was ripe for a sweep. I think The Royals let them off the hook Sunday night, but they can still win the series, which is the ultimate goal.

Ned Yost benches a ton

The bench play this week has been interesting. Yost has dipped into it quite a bit this week, and right now, the Royals are getting solid play from George Kotarras and Jarrod Dyson and less than stellar play from Elliot Johnson and Miguel Tejada. Early on, Yost seemed to have a personal vendetta against Kotarras, but lately, he’s showing why he’s probably good enough to start for many teams. He’s taking walks and hitting with power. That’s what he does.

Dyson, who I will reiterate should be starting for this team, played like a champ in the early game Sunday going 2-4 with two RBI and a stolen base. If only he had the chance to play everyday … hmmm … who makes that decision?

For some reason, though, Johnson isn’t even touching the ball. He’s got seven strikeouts in 17 plate appearances. I was excited about getting Johnson as the PTBNL in the James Shields deal, but that excitement is contingent on him making contact with the ball.

That’s all I have for this week. Let’s hope we’ve seen the end of rainouts, off days, Francoeur, and Getz.

Six of the Royals ten wins have occurred in games where the opposing team has drawn first blood. That is six wins out of eleven games where the other team has scored first.

This may not seem like a big deal until you look at the first seventeen games of last year and notice that the Royals dropped all eleven games in which their opponents scored the first run(s) of the game. Granted many of these losses were achieved during the great winless drought of April 2012.

There has been plenty of talk about the struggles of this team. Hey, it comes with the territory. We KC fans are generally only happy when we’re miserable. People are worried about Holland after all of twelve games….he comes in and blows through the Red Sox for 2 saves in the doubleheader today. People worry about the unfortunate location of Kelvin Herrera‘s pitch yesterday and he comes in and goes two strong innings in the doubleheader’s nightcap. The small sample size rule is still in effect and the outcry I see on social networking (specifically Twitter) makes me cringe.

On the other hand, the struggles of Mike Moustakas and Eric Hosmer are legitimately troubling. I hope they can pull it together. If not, something needs to happen.* I would say that seventeen games is too small of a sample size for them too, but their struggles date back to last season.

*The amazing thing about saying that “something needs to happen” is that you can just say it without really having to back it up. Ok, maybe that’s not true. I guess the most logical option would be to send at least Moose down, if not both of them. The only problem with that is you are faced with starting Tejada, Johnson and/or Falu (if they called him up). I think I’d rather ride the Hosmer/Moose train for just a little while longer. Good grief, they need to get it going, though.

Yeesh, I got off track there.

I think the above stat is very important because it signifies that the Royals are still capable of coming from behind and winning tough games. They were unable to do this last April during that debacle of a losing streak and thusly, had an awful record at this point last year.

I think the capability of winning tough games like these will be a make or break factor for the 2013 Royals. So far, they’ve proven that they’re up to the challenge.

The Royals only played five games this week, which is a fairly rare thing in major league baseball, but it was a five game stretch that tested them against two of the hottest teams in baseball. What grade do they receive for this five-game gauntlet of scorching hot oppenents? A-. Why? Because they went 3-2 against the Braves and Red Sox on the road under really tough conditions. They’d get an A if Kelvin Herrera hadn’t given up that three-run bomb to lose the game Saturday. This brings their overall record to 10-7, tops in the AL Central by a full game.

Now, onto some themes of this week:

April 08, 2013; Kansas City, MO, USA; Kansas City Royals first basemen Eric Hosmer (35) at bat against the Minnesota Twins during the third inning at Kauffman Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Peter G. Aiken-USA TODAY Sports

Hosmer? I barely know ’er.

I came to a realization the other day while watching Eric Hosmer flail at a fastball: he can’t hit fastballs right now. So, I started watching pretty carefully, and I put on my amateur hitting instructor cap. I determined that Hosmer looks late on every fastball because his load either 1) takes way too long OR 2) starts too late. I don’t have fancy GIFs to show you, but go back and watch some of his at-bats this year. He starts his load when the pitchers already released the ball and consequently is behind fastballs that aren’t anything special. As most of us know, and as Brian Henry so wisely pointed out in this post, he’s actually doing a great job swinging at good hitter’s pitches. He’s just not squaring them up; a lot of this is do to his tardiness on fastballs, which he keeps fouling off.

This analysis actually mirrors the conclusion of Clint Scoles over at Pinetarpress.com in his post about Bubba Starling, which is interesting. Starling is, of course, much further behind in his development so it’s not surprising that he’s struggling even more mightily than Hosmer, but there issues seem to be similar.

For Hosmer, it could be a timing thing, maybe he needs to start his load sooner. It could be a mechanics thing, maybe he needs to shorten the path of his load. Whatever it is, it’d be nice to see it fixed very, very soon.

CountryBreakfast is eating lean

Billy Butler is stumbling a little right now, but I don’t think anyone is too worried. If you dive into the numbers, there’s nothing that suggests we should be super worried. He’s not striking out any more than usual; he’s just not getting hits. His BABIP right now is .212*. Part of that is certainly of his own doing. His ground ball rate is 57.1 percent, which is about 10 percent above his norm, and with his speed, groundballs are not the best option. Just from watching the games, it seems like he’s getting behind the count more often. This might be the result of pressing or of pitchers not giving him anything good to hit, knowing the Royals have been ice cold from the four spot this year.

I think he’ll be fine.

*Roughly, these numbers were before Sunday because Fangraphs wasn’t updated yet. Butler did hit a clutch homerun in the second game of the double header, but didn’t impress much otherwise.

The true colors of Francetz

There it is. We’re used to that old tune. It’s familiar and comforting, like the Bossa Nova or “The Thong Song”. For a moment, Chris Getz and Francoeur were playing a trick on us, letting us believe they were going to behave like real, major league ball players. But now, we see their true colors. After warm starts, the two have struggled this week, and are now sporting shiny OBPs of .281 (Francoeur) and .240 (Getz). Getz has apparently decided that taking a walk is beneath him (he’s a power hitter now), and consequently hasn’t taken one yet this season. These two players are another example of a decision the Yost-Moore tandem will have to make, and that decision will say a lot about their development as decision makers.

That’s all for this short week. There were other great things (LoCain, Santana, etc.), but a world fully explored is a world without possibility.

Terrance Gore, LF

2013:

16 games, 52 AB, 12 R, 3 2B, 1 3B, 6 RBI, 11 SB

Speed, speed and more speed: that’s what you get with Gore. I’ve had him as fast as 3.78 to first, so far, and he slipped on his way there. Also got him at 7 seconds flat on a double. He’s fast, is the general idea I’m wishing to convey here. But there’s more to him than just blazing speed.

Gore makes frequent contact at the plate, can lay down some excellent bunts (which he’ll usually beat out, regardless of where they lay), and steals bases seemingly at will. He gets out of the box quickly and hits his stride about half-way to first. Rounding on doubles, he’s nearly at full-speed by the time he’s a few steps off first. In the field, he covers far more than his share of real estate. His plus-plus range and solid arm will lend itself to lots of befuddled looks from opposing baserunners, as he runs down certain base hits with regularity. This aspect of his game is somewhat overlooked; when you have that kind of speed, most people think “base stealer” before they think “fast outfielder”.

Nevertheless, and in my estimation, Gore isn’t likely to spend the year in Class A ball. If he can keep his average up and continue to swipe bags as he has done, I’d think he would be in Wilmington or even NW Arkansas by mid-season.

Bubba Starling, CF

2013:

16 G, 56 AB, 8 H, 7 R, 3 2B, 1 HR, 3 RBI, 4 BB, 24 K, .143 BA, .463 OPS

As some of you may have noticed by now, Starling is struggling mightily at the dish. From what I’ve seen and heard, Bubba has been putting much pressure on himself and has had difficulty adjusting mainly due to this. The physical tools are all there: quick bat, good wheels, great arm and glove in center, etc. The problem, as I see it, is mostly mental. I expect his batting will be on the upswing in the next couple of weeks.

However, while he has demonstrated these exceptional tools, I have noticed that he’s been late on a few fastballs. At other times, he appears to be swinging from the heels and perhaps trying to do too much. Expectations weigh heavily on a young player, sometimes.

In the field, he covers plenty of ground. He moves fluidly, like you would expect from an athlete of his caliber, and his arm is easily plus for center. He’s got enough to play right, if he gets moved over at the higher levels. There’s no question of that. It’s hard to say how well he runs the bases, as I’ve seen him reach so few times.

At this level, when his swing comes around, you can definitely expect power and speed in abundance. A full season at Class A should bring a 20/20 season from Starling, with 30+ doubles. Even after the last two weeks being essentially a loss, this will be no stretch.

Ethan Chapman, RF

2013:

16 G, 51 AB, 11 H, 5 R, 1 2B, 3 RBI, 9 SB, .216 BA, .516 OPS

Chapman might have been lost in the abundance of potential here in Lexington, had it not been for Ford’s move to first after Threlkeld went down in the very first AB of his 2013 season. He’s not put up impressive numbers, that’s true. The thing you’ll notice about him is that he’s pure hustle. He has the classic “overachiever” look to him, although that term suggests that he’s not naturally talented.

The truth is, he seems to have excellent baseball instincts. He simply knows how to play the game. At bat, he’s a rocket out of the box on even sure groundouts. He takes a hard and aggressive (but level) swing, though sometimes he pulls his lead shoulder a bit early. He reads pitchers’ moves and steals as well or better than anyone on the team, and he’s aggressive on the basepaths. For the relatively few times he’s been on base, he’s definitely made the most of those chances.

In the field, he’s all-out on any ball hit in his direction. He even made MiLB.com’s home page highlight reel with a catch he made last week vs. Greenville, where he made friends with the infield tarp roll in pursuit of a quickly sinking fly. He has enough arm to stick in right (for now), and displays at least average range that cannot be downplayed since he never gives up on a fly or liner. I’m hoping that Threlkeld’s return and Ford’s move back to right won’t limit Chapman’s at-bats much, but I’m afraid he’ll be coming off the bench next week.

So there’s a bit about our outfielders, certainly an enviable group in terms of talent and potential. Next up: pitchers. I’d like to see a bit more of some of them before I make an assessment, so look for that post in the next week. Stay tuned, true believers. 

With that in mind, let’s get to the major themes of this week:

Averages can be deceiving

On average, the Royals score 4.3 runs per game, which would have put them just below but right around league average for last year. But has this offense looked even average? Not really. Instead, it might be beneficial to do what economists often do and look at the median runs scored, which in this very limited sample size, is three. In fact, the Royals have scored three runs or less in eight of their 12 games. Their average is buoyed by a 13-run game and a nine run game. It’s great to score that much, but those still only count as one win so if the Royals hope to contend into September, they’ll need more consistent offensive output.

Apr 14, 2013; Kansas City, MO, USA; Kansas City Royals center fielder Jarrod Dyson (1) singles against the Toronto Blue Jays during the seventh inning at Kauffman Stadium. Kansas City won 3-2. Mandatory Credit: Peter G. Aiken-USA TODAY Sports

Optimal lineup

If Mike Moustakas had started the game today, I’d call that the Royals optimal lineup. Jarrod Dyson playing in center field, Lorenzo Cain in right field, and Jeff Francoeur and his winning smile on the pine. Dyson played really well today. He scored one of the team’s three runs and would have scored another if Alex Gordon could have hit a sacrifice fly. Yes, he made a mistake in center field that cost the team a run, but how often is that going to happen? At the very least, this ABSOLUTELY should be the Royals lineup against right-handed pitchers.

Power outage

If you’re looking for power, right now Kauffman is no place to find it. The Royals are tied for last in the AL in homeruns, and there are currently 18 players with as many or more homeruns than the boys in blue. Moustakas’s bat has been MIA. Eric Hosmer is hitting line drives and base hits instead of driving balls out of the park. Gordon’s spring power seems to have evaporated. It’s just not great to be a souvenir seeker at the K right now. If you believe Ryan Lefebvre, and I don’t know why you would, the Royals will start parking the ball once the weather gets warmer (i.e. in the next series when they play in Atlanta). Of course, that seems likely only because the homerun numbers seemingly couldn’t get any worse without a major injury to Billy Butler. It might be time to rethink our notion that the Royals could have five or six 20-homerun guys.

Beating the teams they should

Fans need to give props to the Royals for sweeping the Twins. Last year, they went 7-11 against a Twins team that was awful. This year, one of the constant refrains is The Royals have to beat the teams they should beat. And it’s true. It makes very little difference if they do well against the Tigers if they do terribly against the Twins. The winning strategy will be to at least break even with the Tigers (or somewhere around there) and destroy the Twins. So far, it’s working out.

That’s all for this week. It’s time for a tough road trip. This next week will really say something about the state of the Royals.

Aug 14, 2012; Kansas City, MO, USA; Kansas City Royals shortstop Chris Getz (17) drives in a run with a sacrifice fly against the Oakland Athletics in the fifth inning at Kauffman Stadium. Mandatory Credit: John Rieger-USA TODAY Sports

A week in the books, and for me, it was a week of great excitement and great frustration. Excitement because meaningful baseball is back. Frustration because I’m a Royals fan. This week saw many anticipated and interesting moments. Here are links to a few:

• James Shields’s first start was good but spoiled by Chris Sale.
• Luis Mendoza was stellar in his first start, but Greg Holland blew it.
• The Royals offense exploded in game one of the Philadelphia series after Wade Davis struggled in his Royals debut.

Of course, if you don’t know these things, why do you read this blog? Anyway, I’d like to look at a few patterns or themes that piqued my interest in week 1:

Strikeouts good, walks bad

Just before the season started, I wrote a post about how strikeout to walk ratio would be a very important stat to keep your eyes on this season. This is a fairly obvious statement, but apparently the Royals broadcast teams picked up on it too because they keep harping on how many strikeouts and how few walks the team has. It’s true, of course; the Royals have done very well so far with their strikeout and walk numbers. In 42.2 IP, they have 49 SO and only 12 BB. They can’t keep that rate up, but if they can stay somewhere in the area of 2.5-3 strikeouts to walks, they should be in good shape.

All we need is some patience. Yeah, yeah.

Those who got a chance to watch and listen to the games, probably noticed that the fifth inning has been magical for the Royals so far. In their 13-4 win over the Phillies on Friday, the scoring got started for the Royals in the 5th. It happened again today. If you look closely at those two games (either just watching them or digging into the stats), you’ll notice that their upturn in offense corresponded with increased patience at the plate. On Friday from the 5th inning on, the Royals saw many more pitcher per plate appearance. It’s not coincidence that three of their four walks happened after the 5th either. So, in their two high scoring victories, the Royals have 11 BB. In their three low scoring losses the Royals have 5 BB. Walks aren’t everything, but good plate discipline is important.

Frenchy and Getz gets hot!

(See what I did there?) It’s hard to argue with results. Right now, Jeff Francoeur and Chris Getz are playing well, and I know all of those who have rightly criticized both in the past, including me, are happy to see it. Francoeur is reliving his 2011 by swinging at everything that leaves the pitchers hand but actually putting it in play hard sometimes. Getz is out of his mind right now, hitting the ball hard and for extra bases sometimes. He still hasn’t walked yet, which means has on-base is still pretty low, but beggars can’t be choosers right. Let’s just hope that they continue this level of play throughout because I find it hard to believe that Yost won’t look at these last six games as proof that both are legitimate starters.

This bullpen is scary

In two ways. 1) They’re scary good, like how they dominated in the first four games of the season. 2) They’ve been scary bad the last two games. Really, Greg Holland has been scary bad and J.C. Gutierrez had a bad day. Losing game two of the Phillies series was rough. Holland was so bad, and it felt like the Royals had that game in the bag. We have so much faith in the bullpen it’s especially crushing when they don’t come through. It’s also tough because we as fans know that our margin for error it not big. We can’t give away wins like that. I think Ned Yost knows it too. He didn’t exactly blindly support Holland in post-game comments, and he was quick to pull him today for Kelvin Herrera. I wouldn’t be surprised if a switch is made sometime in the next couple of weeks, especially if Holland continues to struggle. It’ll be interesting to see how that situation shakes out.

Those are the things I found most interesting this week. I almost mentioned Billy Butler’s early struggles; then, he went out and cranked in 7 RBI today. So, I think he’ll be ok.

The Royals chose Luis Mendoza over Bruce Chen.

A revelation. A breath of fresh and reasonable air. In my post on moving a certain terrible pitcher to the bullpen, I noted that the fifth starter decision might be a signal that Royals decision makers are changing their approach/perspective … are maturing really. So, it seems, they have … at least a little … maybe.

Mar 18, 2013; Surprise, AZ, USA; Kansas City Royals manager Ned Yost (left) during the fifth inning against the Texas Rangers at Surprise Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jake Roth-USA TODAY Sports

The evidence for this decision was clear; Mendoza pitched much better last season and this spring. He’s at the peak of his career; Chen is about a month away from Social Security. The fact that a few years ago Chen had a slightly above league average season means very little compared to the travesty of last season, and everyone (that is anyone with eyes and the capability to reason) saw it. Everyone saw that Mendoza is a better option for the fifth spot (I use hyperbole with the term ‘everyone’ for emphasis on just how many people thought Mendoza the better option than Chen).

But that’s never stopped the Royals before. Everyone saw the awfulness of the Yuniesky Betancourt signing, and that didn’t stop the Royals from signing him and then compounding the situation by giving him a starting job at second base. Everyone saw that paying Jose Guillen money to play baseball would be a bad idea. Sign away. Over the course of many, many years, the Royals have turned their backs on reason, and there was evidence suggesting that this year, the year they’re supposed to be going for it, might be the same (tendering Luke Hochevar a contract!!!!).

Choosing Mendoza as the fifth starter flies in the face of their terrible decision making and seems to support the very simple notion that they are trying to play the best players most often (it seems so simple, right!?). It also seems to indicate that they can accurately evaluate who the better of two players is, a flimsy claim for this team from time to time. It’s not that my evaluation ability is better than those calling shots for the Royals. I mean, it is, but that’s not the point. The point is the Royals have typically been in the extreme minority in their opinions on players and still gone with grit over game performance, guts over the ability to hit a baseball.

The good spring decisions they’re making are, of course, only one step. Other important decisions lie on the horizon that will indicate if those calling the shots at Kauffman really have a new approach capable of winning. They’ve already settled on J.C. Gutierrez as the final man for the bullpen, which is, I think, not a terrible decision just a calculated one. Many on Twitter are unhappy that Donnie Joseph didn’t get the job, and while I might have chosen him, I certainly see the logic in a small-market, relatively low-budget team maintaining some priority on inventory. The backup catcher spot went to George Kottaras, another reasonable decision. But once the season gets rolling and a player starts to struggle (perhaps a certain right fielder), this ‘new approach’ will be tested, as it will near the All-Star break when Danny Duffy and Felipe Paulino come back and when it will be decision time on whether or not to move Ervin Santana.

Approaches to running a baseball team are not based on one or two decisions, they are the lens through which an organization sees the game, the perspective of their gaze. The Cardinals and Rays have winning perspectives. They don’t just make a good decision every now and then; they make consistently good decisions. In the past, when Ned Yost saw Hochevar allow 7 runs in an inning, based on his post-game comments and talk surrounding Hochevar, it seemed like he literally saw something different than I did. That’s because his perspective seemed much different than a sane person’s. It’s hard to change perspective, and I hope that we can begin to mark this time as a time the Royals decision makers found a way to change theirs. It’s looking like that might be the case.

August 19, 2012; Kansas City, MO, USA; Kansas City Royals pitcher Jeremy Guthrie (33) reacts in the dugout against the Chicago White Sox at Kauffman Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Peter G. Aiken-USA TODAY Sports

I happened to watch the Spring Training game against the Chicago White Sox earlier today, and found myself taking a lot of positives from it. I thought I’d share some thoughts about the game that seem significant to me:

I’m happy with where Jeremy Guthrie is. I was worried for a while. He looked pretty bad in his first few outings of the spring. He couldn’t locate. His fastball didn’t seem to have much zip or movement. Essentially, he looked like his Colorado self (in terms of results anyway).

Today, though, he looked like the Guthrie that made the Royals eager to give him $25 million in the offseason. He made one mistake in the fifth and gave up a homer, but other than that, he was very clean. The run he gave up in the first inning was a fluke—contingent on a soft bloop to left field on a good pitch and a hit that would have been fielded but instead ricocheted off third base. His secondary pitches looked deadly today, and his fastball had some life. Most importantly, he located.

Alcides Escobar looks ready to go. Like Guthrie, Escobar looked a little lost to start the spring. He was fighting some back spasms for a few days and looked a little pull happy early in the spring. Consequently, it looked like he might fulfill the prophecy of regression many have set for him or perhaps dip even further than most are predicting.

But against the White Sox, Escobar stayed focused up the middle and to right field. He had a nice line-drive base hit up the middle and lined out to second once. That’s what he needs to do, drive the ball to right and right center. Pull inside fastball when necessary. I’m still waiting for him to lay a few down successfully. That was a big part of his game last year—bunting for base hits—and I haven’t seen him do it much (though I haven’t been able to watch most of the games). If he can once again enact the identity of a number two hitter, he will be a very good number two hitter. Makes sense, right?

Feb 21, 2013; Surprise, AZ, USA; Kansas City Royals right fielder Jeff Francoeur (21) poses for a picture during photo day at the Royals Spring Training Facility. Mandatory Credit: Jake Roth-USA TODAY Sports

This might kill me to write, but Jeff Francoeur isn’t looking terrible lately. I watched the game against Anaheim the other day and thought Hmmm, Francoeur’s swing looks shorter than usual. In that game he absolutely CRUSHED a ball over the batter’s eye in center field. Against the White Sox today, he had two doubles, both hit very sharply with good, tight swings (that is, good for Francoeur; he’ll never be Albert Pujols). I’ve been a staunch opponent of starting Francoeur in right field, and I’m of the belief that whatever is working for him now is probably fleeting. But if he has to be the starting right fielder for the Royals, I’d rather he be playing well than playing poorly.

Interestingly, this swing seems to allow Francoeur not only to hit the ball more but to foul pitches away as well. He’s always going to swing at whatever is thrown, but if he can foul off the pitches he shouldn’t be swinging at instead of missing them, he’ll give himself more chances to put balls in play.

Alex Gordon is flat out destroying the ball. It is Spring Training, and the White Sox used minor league pitching against the Royals, but Gordon is having terrific at-bats. He’s piling up extra-base hits (including home runs) and doesn’t seem fooled by what any pitcher is doing (major league or otherwise). If he carries this over into the season, the Royals will have a serious weapon at the top of their lineup, and Gordon will force himself into the All-Star game where he should have been in the last two seasons (2011 for sure).

Hawk Harrelson is a terrible play-by-play guy (the game was on MLB.tv via the White Sox Broadcast).

I realize that these are all positive (except for the last one). Maybe that’s because the game went pretty well; maybe it’s because I’m getting more and more optimistic as the season approaches. I don’t know. Right now, the Royals look ready to put their best foot forward to start the regular season.  Let’s hope nothing changes that over the course of the next week.

Xavier Paul – He is not as young as I would like, but Paul is a career .275 hitter against right handed pitching.  He has decent on-base skills and speed, and not a zero in power, though below average for sure.  Not my first choice, but serviceable and I don’t know that Cincinnati has room for him.

Tyler Colvin – The Rockies seem to be interested in him playing quite a bit, so it might take more to get him than I would want to spend.  He is exactly the profile of a platoon player, though.  Crushes right handed pitching and not great against lefties.  Last year he hit 17 HRs against righties and only 1 when facing southpaws.  Fielding metrics used to hate him, but not over the last couple of years.  The Royals recently talked with the Rockies about a trade, though Hochevar is not going to get Colvin.

Kole Calhoun – The Angels have four guys that are better than Calhoun and Vernon Wells.  Looking at Wells on the Angels’ depth chart made me smile a little since it means we don’t have the worst right field situation in the AL.  He is a more expensive Jeff Francoeur!  Nothing quite like having a backup get paid $21 million a year for two more years.  Calhoun has shown good on-base and power in the minors although he struggled in a cup of coffee last year.  The Angels also may need some starting pitching due to Tommy Hanson’s injury issues.

Chris Coghlan – Probably cheap, and if he could regain his form of 2009, would be an awesome steal.  That isn’t likely, but even in a bad 2011 he hit right handed pitching well.  Maybe he would be better in a platoon, and every player is better off away from Jeff Loria.

Feb 21, 2013; Surprise, AZ, USA; Kansas City Royals right fielder Jeff Francoeur (21) poses for a picture during photo day at the Royals Spring Training Facility. Mandatory Credit: Jake Roth-USA TODAY Sports

Caleb Gindl – Took a big step back in AAA last year, but probably worth evaluating.  Milwaukee doesn’t seem to need or want him badly, and his spring has been good so far.  He is only 24 and has shown the ability to get on base and hit for a least moderate power, which could mean a decent future depending on how he adjust to the majors.

Travis Snider – Still only 25 and could turn out to have an Alex Gordon sort of breakthrough based on what he was once thought of as a hitter.  If the Pirates decide to start him maybe Jerry Sands would be available, and could scoop up Sands.  He could just start over Francoeur and we could forget about this platoon thing.

Anthony Gose – He struggled in his first major league experience last year, and the outfield in Toronto is not lacking currently, if you believe in Colby Rasmus.  Maybe he could be stolen due to the shine coming off of the apple last year, but I doubt a 22 year old with his minor league track record would be cheap enough.

Roger Bernadina – With Denard Span coming in, it seems that Bernadina just became the world’s best 4^th outfielder.  Maybe the Royals could trade them Jarrod Dyson plus something so that they still feel like they have viable backup.  If that was possible I would put Bernadina in center, Lorenzo Cain in right, and cut Frenchy outright.  No way the Royals would do this, but I can dream.

The nice thing about finding someone to play opposite Francoeur in the batter’s box is that the bar is fairly low.  All they have to do to be valuable to the Royals is hit righties in an average fashion and not kick the ball around defensively.  My guess is that every guy on this list could do this, and some of them could be better when lefties are pitching too.  Hopefully the Royals can get an evaluation and trade done sooner rather than later, so that the platoon can begin.  Otherwise we need to give David Lough a chance as Tony said a couple of days ago.  The added benefit of getting someone who may be able to help the team for several years should make these sorts of players attractive at the current time.

If you follow the Royals’ minor league system at all, there is one theme.  Wilmington is a tough place to hit.  Being a position player in the system and getting a promotion to high A ball is the equivalent of the Royals Brass telling you that they would like to see how you handle failure.  It is a pitchers park of nearly epic proportions.  Cuthbert’s 2012 line of .240/.296/.322 is definitely scary, and maybe completely meaningless as well.  I went back and looked for Royals in Wilmington going back to 1994 to see who hit well there.  Plenty of players, including Johnny Damon, Mike Sweeney, and even Ken Harvey had nice seasons for the Blue Rocks, but there is a consistent similarity among them all, and that is that they were all in their early 20s.  Only one player under age 20 had a significant amount of playing time in Wilmington and had good hitting numbers.  Wil Myershad a nice half season in is age 19 season.

Cheslor Cuthbert via Jen Nevius

The best parallel for Cheslor is Carlos Beltran.  Beltran was actually a year older at each stop, but had a similar path of decent rookie ball year and a pretty good line between low A and A ball.  Then he arrived in Wilmington and struggled to a line of .229/.311/.363 as a 20 year old.  The following year he repeated his time at high A, and did much better, getting a promotion to AA where his numbers exploded.  That is the hope for someone like Cuthbert in 2013.  Getting a chance to age and repeat could lead to similar growth as a player.  Not only that, but the fact that he is following a similar path at a younger age means that the ceiling for him may be very high.

Digging into last season there were some good signs.  Away from his home park, Cuthbert’s average was similar, but his OBP was 20 points higher and his slugging was 60 points higher.  Also, after three really awful months, his OBP in the last two months (a little over 100 PAs) of the season were .343 and .364 with the usual small sample size caveats.  Everyone is loving up Adalberto Mondesi this spring, and for good reason, but don’t forget about Cheslor Cuthbert.  It would not at all be surprising to me if next year he was in AA and/or AAA and creating questions about how to handle the log jam at third base.

December 12, 2012; Kansas City, MO, USA; Kansas City Royals general manager Dayton Moore speaks during the press conference at Kauffman Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports

About a week ago, I wrote a post vilifying the Royals for their flippant use of the term “competition”. I chastised them for using a rhetoric of lies while giving players like Luke Hochevar the chance to continually disappoint. I even had a very witty Ron Mexico joke in there.

The very next day, they pulled Hochevar from the rotation, and my post was DOA.

Go ahead and search the major Royals blogs (especially Kings of Kauffman, which his in my opinion the bestest blog ever!). You’ll find plenty of writing about Hochevar’s move to the bullpen so I’m not going to go there. I’ll just state that moving a guy who can’t pitch with runners on base into a position in which one primary function is to pitch well with guys on base is a little confusing. But here’s hoping he turns into Mariano Rivera.

Instead, I’m thinking about the shift in approach that this move signals … if it does in fact signal one … which I don’t think it does. Those same writings on Hochevar mention this potential shift, but I’m not so optimistic that a shift has necessarily occurred. In fact, I’m not sure that Hochevar being moved could even be evidence of a shift in approach.

Moving Hochevar is not an un-Royals move. It’s actually a very Royals move once viewed as a whole. Because you can’t look at this move in the moment; it must be looked at in its entirety. What have the Royals really done here? They drafted a guy number one overall, moved him quickly threw the minor leagues, pushed him to be their number one starter, and then stuck by him through one of the worst starting pitching careers in history. They stuck with him much, much longer than anyone in their right mind would have, and finally, when they were the last ones left to realize what he was, they made a move to salvage that product.

In what way is that un-Royals like? On different scales (over different periods of time) that’s the story with Jason Kendall and Mike Jacobs and Jose Lima and so many others that if we crowd sourced might fill multiple rosters. Go ahead, name the one’s I’ve left out for the sake of brevity in the comments section.

No, Hochevar is not the measure of a shift in approach or attitude or perspective. The Hochevar move is a team making a big mistake, realizing it way, way, way too late, and trying to salvage. The real test of whether or not a shift in approach has occurred might be in the two other fifth starter candidates: Luis Mendoza and Bruce Chen. Anyone with eyes knows that Mendoza is the better pitcher and deserves that job. Anyone who knows baseball a little, knows that Chen’s best years (the two roughly average years he had with Kansas City) are behind him. Choosing Mendoza over Chen might signal that the Royals have opened up more to bailing on their mistakes when they’re apparent, a small shift in attitude but an important one. It might signify that they no longer get oddly protective of certain players who can’t perform, as if those players are all David Glass’s favorite nephews.

Really, it will take a body of decisions to evaluate whether or not the Royals decision makers have evolved their thinking to fit a team that is seemingly in place to win now. Do they stick with Jeff Francoeur if he struggles mightily in the first month? Do they send Donnie Joseph to AAA even if he is the best option they have as the last member of their bullpen and their best LOOGY option? These are difficult decisions (ok, the first one isn’t) the answer to which changes depending on where a team is at in its progress. If a team is rebuilding, options and service time and protecting large numbers of players is more important. If a might contend, those things should matter less (that doesn’t mean they shouldn’t matter at all; it just means they should matter less).

The next month and a half will give us a clearer indication if the those pulling the strings at Kauffman Stadium have actually wised up or if it’s just business as its often shitty usual.

But there’s not much I can do about that. I’ve tried to be as objective as I can, giving credence to data, patterns, comps, and general understanding. I tried to limit the influence of things I feel matter less—how I wantthe team to do and certain statistical elements. With that in mind, here is my prediction for the Royals’ 2013 season: 90-72.

June 14, 2012; Kansas City, MO, USA; Kansas City Royals left fielder Alex Gordon (4), center fielder Mitch Maier (12) congratulate center fielder Jarrod Dyson (1) after sliding in safely for the winning run in the ninth inning of the game against the Milwaukee Brewers at Kauffman Stadium. The Royals won 4-3. Mandatory Credit: Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports

I know; I know. It’s much more optimistic than most people’s, but someone has to be the outlier, the nut job. I have no problem being that guy. Let me tell you why it’s so high.

For starters, read my last post. The basis of my very generous prediction is my belief that the Royals are set for a breakout similar to that of the Rays in 2008. The Rays greatly improved an atrocious pitching staff in 2008, which allowed them to make a tremendous jump in wins.* The Royals probably aren’t set for as large a jump in pitching performance—mostly because their bullpen wasn’t as bad in 2012 as the Rays bullpen in 2007. But the Royals have the potential to improve greatly both offensively and in pitching (the Rays improved only slightly offensively).

* I am currently working on a theory that improving starting pitching may disproportionately improve a teams win total.

What would it take for the Royals to orchestrate a Rays-like turnaround? I’m glad I rhetorically asked. Essentially, the Royals need flip their run differential from -70 to +100—keeping in mind of course that the number of runs they scored and surrendered last year will not effect the number they score and surrender this year. A +100 run differential puts them in the general neighborhood of 90 wins. (Note: run differential is the difference between how many runs the score and how many they give up.)

It all starts with starting pitching. If the Royals get their starting staff’s ERA down to roughly the American League median (4.30) and increase their innings by 100 to 990 and their bullpen simply stays the same, their runs allowed would drop from 746 to 635. An increase in starter innings to 990 is very reasonable, perhaps even conservative, as Ned Yost and James Shields have already stated that their expectation is 1000 innings from the starting rotation. For the sake of conservative estimate, this is also predicting no improvement at all from the bullpen, though it should improve with the starting staff going deeper into games. Last year, the bullpen was woefully overused forcing the Royals to rely on a large number of bullpen arms some of which were not their best. Which is to say, 635 is a conservative expectation for runs allowed; it could be lower.

Of course, the Royals only scored 676 runs last season so ONLY improving the starting pitching would put them at what most people are predicting, roughly 85-87 wins. The Tigers had a Pythagorean win-loss of 87-75 last season with a run differential of +56. But if the Royals improve offensively, they should make a significant jump in wins. In 2011, the Royals scored 730 runs with fantastic years from five of their top-nine players (in terms of playing time) and four pretty bad years from Chris Getz, Alcides Escobar, Mike Moustakas, and a combination of Matt Treanor and Brayan Pena. Given where players like Moustakas, Escobar, Eric Hosmer, Salvador Perez, Lorenzo Cain, Jarrod Dyson, and Johnny Giavotella are in their development, I think it’s very possible that the Royals make it to around 730 runs. Maybe in another post I’ll do an analysis of this lineups potential to score runs, but for now, let’s just say I think they can make it to around 730. The caveat, of course, is health, but I think they’re more capable of dealing with a few injuries than in the past few seasons (though perhaps not certain injuries to key players).

A run differential of around +100 gives the Royals a chance to win around 90 games. Last season, Texas had a run differential of +101 and had a Pythagorean win-loss of 91-71 (actually record, 93-69). And all it really requires is that the starting pitching pitch average (which is honestly asking too little of the first four, especially James Shields), and the lineup progress as young lineups do.

Honestly, I think the low predictions for the Royals by most people are the result of viewing 2012 conservatively: The Royals ONLY won 72 games in 2012. I see 2012 and say Wow the Royals were able to win 72 games despite the never-ending stream of crap that came their way. Four Tommy John surgeries, including the two most effective starting pitchers. Cain–out for half the season. Perez–out half the season. Jeff Francoeur—the worst everyday player in baseball. Hosmer—a year no one expected. Jonathan Sanchez—12 of the most horrific starts I’ve ever seen. All of this stuff happened and more, and yet, they still managed to win 72 games—one more than in 2011. And their Pythagorean win-loss was 74-88 (in 2011 it was actually better at 78-84).

September 27, 2012; Detroit, MI, USA; Kansas City Royals catcher Salvador Perez (13) during the game against the Detroit Tigers at Comerica Park. Mandatory Credit: Rick Osentoski-USA TODAY Sports

Now, I know bad stuff happens, but I just cannot image all of this bad stuff happening again. And I think if something bad does happen—if Francoeur has another abomination of a season, if Perez misses time—the Royals are more equipped to handle it. George Kottaras is better than Humberto Quintero and Pena. The Royals have two people in place who can play a serviceable right field and seem more willing to bench Francoeur if he’s not performing.

Yes, on the flip side, some of the players who had great seasons in 2012 may regress, but really, only three players had better than expected seasons in 2012: Escobar, Billy Butler (with increased power), and Jeremy Guthrie (with the Royals anyway). I don’t think anyone thinks Butler is going to have a bad season. He may not hit 29 homers again (I think he’ll hit at least as many), but he will produce. Escobar seems likely to regress a little, but he’s a young guy so it’s not unusual for him to be getting better. Don’t be surprised if he can stick in the .280-.290 range. Guthrie may regress, but I don’t think he’ll fall too far—certainly not to where he was in Colorado. I imagine he can regress and still be at least league average.

Essentially, my prediction for the Royals sees what most people see; I just think it will yield more wins than they do. Most people see Hosmer having a bounce-back season. Most see the starting staff getting better. Most see the Royals getting a better year out of right field. Most see Moustakas improving as well. So, why won’t they win 90? And you can’t say because they’re the Royals.

For more encouragement, look at the addition by subtraction. Sanchez will not make 12 starts this year. Yuniesky Betancourt will not make 228 plate appearances. I love Pena, but he and Quintero will not have a combined 370 plate appearances. Luke Hochevar will not be allowed to make 32 starts with a 5.73 ERA, and the Royals have pieces to replace him.

To me, this is a recipe for a big turnaround. So … I’m predicting a big turnaround. Sure, some things have to go right. The Royals need to stay healthy, especially Perez, Alex Gordon, and Shields. But that’s every team in every season. Maybe my prediction is overly optimistic, but I just can’t look at the data and see only average in this team. The talent is better than that. If they play as they can play, they have a chance.

I came to this conclusion the other day when, in a particularly strong bout of optimism, I thought maybe the Royals can find a way to do it this year. If they keep it close into September, maybe they can take this division with 90 wins after a late season run. *eye twinkle*

This led to an unfounded belief that maybe the Tigers aren’t as good as people think. So, I dug into the numbers, and was crushed by the reality that the Tigers are freaking incredible on paper. It’s kind of hard to look at.

October 02, 2012; Kansas City, MO, USA; Kansas City Royals third baseman Tony Abreu (34) gets the out on Detroit Tigers second baseman Danny Worth (29) at second base and throws to first in the seventh inning at Kauffman Stadium. The Royals won 4-2. Mandatory Credit: Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports

Start with their pitching staff, third in the AL in ERA (3.75) last year, and that was with a suspect bullpen. They were second in starters’ ERA at 3.76, which is fantastic. Their top four starters had ERAs under 3.74; Justin Verlander led the group with a 2.64. The only starter in their top six in starts with an ERA over four was Rick Porcello, and I could see him losing his spot in the rotation to Drew Smyly. Every one of these pitchers other than Porcello had a K/9 rate of at least 7.64, and each of them had a BB/9 rate under three.

On the offensive side, the picture doesn’t get much prettier (that is if you’re hoping for the Royals to compete; if you’re hoping for the Tigers to win 95 games, things are looking great). The Tigers’ team slash line was .268/.335/.422. They were fourth in the AL in OPS at .757 behind New York, Texas, and Los Angeles. Of course, that was without their starting DH, Victor Martinez, who was out the whole year with a torn ACL. He’ll be back this year because clearly they need more help hitting bombs off Luke Hochevar.

The most terrifying aspects of this lineup are not Prince Fielder and Miguel Cabrera. They’re incredible; they’re going to hit. Everyone knows it. It’s guys like Austin Jackson and Andy Dirks who really stand out. Jackson hit .300/.377/.479 last season. He was worth 5.5 WAR (according to fangraphs), which was more than Prince Fielder. Dirks, in only 344 PA, hit .322/.370/.487 and was worth 1.6 WAR, a number dragged down by his poor fielding.

To help with all this, noted Royal killer and ageless wonder Torii Hunter has joined the Tigers. YAY!

That’s not to say that the Tigers are without flaws. Jackson and Dirks’ numbers were inflated by very high BABIPs—but so are Alex Gordon’s. There’s no telling where Martinez will be after ACL surgery, a year away from baseball, and being another year older. He’s 34 years old. In fact, this team, while not old, has plenty of miles on it and plenty of padding around the waistline. I wonder sometimes how Cabrera and Fielder hold up as well as they do with all the weight they carry, and essentially, this is the Royals’ only hope: that the Tigers get hit by the injury bug.

Of course, there are other deficiencies in their game that might make an AL Central race more interesting. The Tigers’ added bulk makes them pretty useless running the bases. They’re a one-base-at-a-time kind of team. It also makes them a below-average fielding team. Jackson is good in center field, Jhonny Peralta is decent at shortstop, and Omar Infante is pretty good at second base, but that’s about it. Everyone else actively hurts them on defense, especially Cabrera and Fielder, with the possible exception of Hunter in right field, though most of his value last year came from his arm, and we’ll see if that holds up.

Oct 24, 2012; San Francisco, CA, USA; Detroit Tigers pitcher Jose Valverde (46) walks back to the dugout after being relieved by manager Jim Leyland (middle) in the seventh inning during game one of the 2012 World Series against the San Francisco Giants at AT

The great question is if the Tigers are so great, how come they only won 88 games last year? Well, the defense and base running are a part of it. But the real answer? The bullpen. It was 10^th in the AL in ERA and blew 16 saves last season, which doesn’t include games it blew before a save opportunity was in place. The Tigers lost 23 games via a relief pitcher, which means 23 times last year, the rotation handed a game over to the bullpen either tied or in the lead and lost that game. The Royals only lost 21 games in relief, and their bullpen pitched over 100 innings more than the Tigers’. To put it in greater perspective, the Texas Rangers bullpen pitched roughly the same number of innings as the Tigers’ and lost only 14 games.

And really, there isn’t much to indicate that the bullpen will be a lot better, but bullpens are finicky. Meaning it’s tough to count on their bullpen being bad again. More likely, their bullpen will be average, and won’t lose them so many games next season.

In a way, though, I’m glad the Tigers are as good as they are on paper. It makes the notion of the Royals chasing them a little more exciting. James Shields in interviews compares the 2013 Royals to the 2008 Tampa Bay Devil Rays. I’m not sure it’s a fitting comparison, but the Devil Rays had two mammoth teams in their division to compete against and were better for it. Yes, the Tigers are great on paper. They are most certainly the favorites in the division, but sometimes something special happens.

And I’m back to unfounded optimism.

A few days ago it dawned on me as I was scrolling through a game log from last season. I kept seeing games pass that looked like this: (W 2-1) (L 5-1) (L 4-2) (W 1-0). In this short example, the pattern now seems relatively clear. In 2012, the Royals won most of their low scoring games, but lost many more of their high scoring games.

April 10, 2012; Oakland, CA, USA; Kansas City Royals first baseman Eric Hosmer (35) loses his bat during the eighth inning against the Oakland Athletics at O.co Coliseum. Mandatory Credit: Kyle Terada-USA TODAY Sports

The Royals were 57-13 (.814) when they allowed three runs or less. Even at the high end of that span, when allowing three runs, they were 20-7. In itself, that’s not a remarkable stat. Teams should win games in which their pitching staffs allow three runs or less. In that sense, the Royals took care of business. It is a somewhat encouraging stat, as the addition of James Shields and the revamped rotation can hopefully produce more games in which three runs or fewer are allowed.

The remarkable thing about the Royals record in games allowing three runs or less arises in contrast with their record allowing four runs or more: 15-77 (.163). Of course, it also is not stunning that the Royals lost more games than they won when allowing four or more runs. What’s telling is the huge gap between allowing three runs and allowing four. As noted before, the Royals were 20-7 when allowing three runs, but when they allowed only a single run more, they were 5-16. Add only one more run (five), and the record moves to 2-16. When allowing four or five runs, the Royals were 7-32 (.179). So, the winning percentage jump looks like this:

Allowing 3 runs – 20-7 (.741)

Allowing 4 runs – 5-16 (.238)

Allowing 5 runs – 2-16 (.111)

Let’s provide some context for these marks. The Baltimore Orioles, a team the Royals would like to emulate in 2013, won 93 games in 2012. When allowing three runs or less, they were 68-8 (.895), a little better than the Royals. When giving up four or more runs, they were 25-61 (.291); that’s .128 points better than the Royals. Looking at how well the Orioles did in games allowing four or more runs, the picture starts to form. The Orioles managed to win more of the games their pitching staff didn’t control, the games they “shouldn’t” win. This becomes even starker when we look at the in-between games in which four and five runs were allowed:

Allowing 3 runs – 15-5 (.750)

Allowing 4 runs – 10-9 (.526)

Allowing 5 runs – 6-9 (.400)

Notice the Orioles won more of their games allowing four runs than they lost. The Royals were 25 games under .500 when allowing four or five runs. The Orioles were two games under .500 doing the same. If you watched most of the 2012 season, you know the lineup didn’t produce the way most fans hoped it would, but this level of disparity warrants new ideas about why.

Here’s what I’ve come up with. In 2012, this team didn’t respond well to their pitchers giving up runs. The reality of baseball probabilities states that once you are behind, your odds of winning dip below 50 percent. So, when you’re down 1-0 in the first, your odds of winning drop to something like 42 percent. If you go down 5-0, the odds drop to something like 12 percent (approximated numbers that may be way off). This is true of every team, but the Royals seemed to have even greater difficulty dealing with deficits. Their record when behind in the fourth inning was 8-57 (.123). The fourth inning is still very early, and yet, they lost at a very high rate. Contrast that with our comp team, the Orioles, and the difference is clear. The Orioles were 13-38 (.255) when trailing in the fourth inning.

We can’t clearly determine a cause here. We can speculate: their youth, their inconsistency, their morale, their lack of confidence. I know from watching games that at certain points if a pitcher gave up a few runs it was hard to envision the Royals coming back. They seemed to press in those moments at the plate, try to do too much. Whatever it was, if another team made it to four or five runs, it seemed like the Royals were out of the game.

Anecdotally, we know the Orioles won a lot of games by keeping them close and winning late. The numbers bare that out as well, but there are two really important things to note in this data. 1) The Royals need to win more games when allowing four or five runs if they’re going to be successful in 2013. 2) They need to find a way to battle back. Maybe that will be easier if they don’t have to battle back every game. Maybe the experience of last season will help players understand how to battle back. I don’t know. But it needs to happen.

This new, shiny pitching staff is great because it allows the Royals to put more games into the category of three runs or less allowed. But good teams win a significant portion of higher scoring games. They pull out some games they shouldn’t. It has to happen if the Royals want to have a chance to run with teams like the Tigers. It’s not just about getting better in shiny categories; it’s about getting better in categories that are bound to be ugly. Every team is going to have a losing record in games giving up four or more runs. The Royals need to find a way to have a not-as-bad record in those games.

October 1, 2012; Pittsburgh, PA, USA; Official baseballs lay on the field before the Atlanta Braves and Pittsburgh Pirates game at PNC Park. Mandatory Credit: Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports

Last Saturday, I got the chance to speak with a group of people at the Society for American Baseball Research’s SABR Day in Kansas City. The KC chapter needed a last second fill-in for the Wonderdog Rex Hudler and asked Kings of Kauffman if we could send a representative. I volunteered, and I’m so glad I did.

I got up and did my thing, talking about different Royals players, answering questions about the upcoming season, and consistently making Jeff Francoeur and Luke Hochevar the butts of jokes. Most of my stuff was related to advanced statistics, or SAB(e)Rmetrics if you will. If you read my posts consistently, you know that I use sabermetrics a lot (though I don’t know if I’m actually a sabermetrician because I don’t do my own math; I borrow math from people).

After I spoke, a man named Bob Meyer introduced the audience to a book he’s just published. Bob was a semi-pro baseball player in Iowa for many years but lives in Kansas City now. He’s older, remembers the days of sandlot ball and more localized teams. He told stories about playing ball in the service and how he knew it was time to stop playing when he started arguing with umpires.

His book, Small Town Baseball—Big League Dreams*, is a reflection of the man himself. As Bob put it, “it’s not hard baseball,” meaning it’s not about how to construct a good team, and it doesn’t employ anything as intricate as wRC+. Instead, Bob’s book relates the most simplistic, elegant, and wonderful features of a game that is so much more than a game to so many. Bob’s book tells stories, or, more accurately, it lets people tell their stories, the stories of semi-pro baseball in small-town Eastern Iowa.

Of course, on the surface, Bob and my talks looked very different. I talked about how Francoeur is a less valuable player than Jarrod Dyson; he read from a story about a pageant that takes place at a tournament in Dyersville. Bob had stories of Bruce Kimm’s time in Eastern Iowa; I had opinions on Bruce Chens’ chances to win the fifth starter spot.

Perhaps those talks were very different, but I know that I was enraptured by Bob’s stories. I know that when I heard him talk about how semi-pro baseball is dying I was sad in the way I was sad watching Ken Burns: Baseball when I learned that there used to be vibrant small-town teams that died out as big-league baseball got increasingly popular (television and such). I felt caught up in the romanticism of funny stories from these old, semi-pro players, caught up in a way that I wanted to hold, like a good dream.

And Bob, though he seemed hesitant to talk “hard baseball,” sparked a great discussion during my talk about bunting for hits. He gave wonderful numbers off the top of his head about a player who had a high number of bunt hits many years ago. That conversation went on for 15 minutes or so, and I can say with no certainty that we exhausted the ways in which bunt hits can be talked about.

I sometimes worry that by emphasizing statistics so much that I’m excluding the things that bring us to baseball in the first place: narratives. Nobody watches baseball because Billy Butler has a terrific wOBA. We watch because the narratives weaving in and out of the game, transitioning across decades, being passed from people like Bob hopefully to people like me, captivate us. They grab us by the guts and force us to love something that may consistently let us down—Royals fans.

The great thing about this false dichotomy, statistics v. narrative, is that it’s so easily destructed. It holds up under examination about as well as that whole Mayan apocalypse nonsense (unless none of us are really here, and you’re not really reading this … whoa … mind blown). Statistical analysis only adds to those narratives. It provides context. It’s the realism to Bob’s romanticism. Both necessary, both compelling in their own ways. We do ourselves a disservice when we ignore the importance of one to elevate the other.

*If you’re interested in ordering a copy, you can e-mail Bob at bobmeyerbooks@gmail.com. All the proceeds go to charity (the CFCA and Camp Courageous). That’s the kind of man Bob is.

September 16, 2012; Kansas City, MO, USA; Kansas City Royals catcher Salvador Perez (13) drives the ball to right field against the Los Angeles Angels during the ninth inning at Kauffman Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Peter G. Aiken-USA TODAY Sports

*The other two are James Shields and Alex Gordon because I don’t think many think the Royals have a chance to win without either of these three. Someone in the comments will inevitably mention Billy Butler, and while he’s very important, he doesn’t play defense and is a liability on the bases—barely missed the top three.

For proof, let’s look at who replaced him during his time out of the lineup in 2012. While the Royals’ record wasn’t tremendously improved by his return, which was probably the result of his impact being offset by a slide from Mike Moustakas and the continued ineptness from the starting staff, his added value compared to those he replaced was ENORMOUS. In 74 games, Perez produced 2.6 WAR (from Fangraphs). Humberto Quintero racked up .3 in 43 games, Brayan Pena was -.3 in 68 games. In just a few more games than Pena, Perez was worth nearly 3 WAR more. That’s incredible. His 2.6 WAR was ninth best in MLB among catchers, and he only had 305 PA.

From a strictly offensive standpoint, Perez simply produces more runs than most catchers in the league (and he’ll turn 23 in May). Among qualifying catchers, Perez would have been eighth in wRC+ (weighted runs per PA plus) at 114, just behind A.J. Pierzynski—but he didn’t qualify. Many of the other catchers on that list are primarily offensive catchers, guys like Pierzynski, Joe Mauer, and Ryan Doumit, and he hung with them in his age 22 season.

Back to Perez’s stand-ins. Perez has a wRC of 41, which means by this measure he created 41 runs. In 340 combined PA, Quintero and Pena created only 25 runs, 10 for Quintero and 15 for Pena. Both of those were below league average per plate appearance. I’m not certain, but I don’t see Brett Hayes doing much better.

Of course, it’s the amazing defense that makes Perez an oddity. Unlike Pierzynski, the league doesn’t commit repeated grand larceny on Perez. Pierzynski had -5 DRS (defensive runs saved) in 2012; Perez had 9 in 74 games. Many compare Perez to Yadier Molina, and looking at the numbers from last season, that seems reasonable. Molina led the league with 16 DRS—a number Perez may have reached in a full season of work. Only Molina and Buster Posey have the same type of dynamic catching ability mixed with firepower on offense that Perez has. Both of those players have led their teams to World Series championships. Coincidence? I think not.

I like numbers and stats and things, but for this type of assessment, we need also to imagine. Let’s close our eyes and ask this question. Can you imagine the Cardinals winning their championships without Molina? Can you imagine the Royals winning with Hayes catching every day? If you answered yes to the first one, I can see your point. Those Cardinal teams had Albert Pujols and great pitching and a great manager. If you answered yes to the second one, you may be forgetting the Royals do not have Pujols or undeniably great pitching or a great manager. Perez actually means more to the Royals than Molina means to the Cardinals because the Royals have fewer proven players and fewer resources to obtain new players. The Royals need every run saved and created.

This is a sobering idea because Perez didn’t play the whole 2012 season. He’s a big catcher with a lot of potential for injury. If he gets hurt, I cannot imagine the Royals competing for a playoff spot. In that sense, their season rests, in part, on his body. All the projections and optimism and expectations mean very little if he gets hurt. The same might be true of Shields and Gordon; they seem like lynchpins. It’s an article for another time, but it seems like small-market teams have more lynchpins because of their inability to replace fallen players. I think we can safely say that the Royals would have no ability to replace Perez. He’s a weapon few have and one the Royals cannot live without.

The Royals are spending more on payroll this year. A lack of willingness to shell out the cash is typically a mainstay complaint for most Royals fans. They move from just under 61 million dollars (27th out of 30 MLB teams) in 2012 to app. 78 million dollars (20th out of 30 MLB teams).

Many people will look at this as a step in the right direction for the Royals as they’re shelling out more money than they ever have before. In fact, as the above Yahoo article states, the Royals were the #5 overall team in positive payroll percent change at +28.04%.

However, if you look back at the Royals payroll ranking in the past 5 years before 2012, you may find that the jump is not very awe-inspiring.

2011: 30th in the MLB (36,126,400)

2010: 20th in the MLB (72,267,710)

2009: 21st in the MLB (70,908,333)

2008: 24th in the MLB (58,245,500)

2007: 22nd in the MLB (67,116,500)

So while many less-informed fans may be excited about more money being spent than ever before, it once again comes down to one thing:

Allocation, allocation, allocation.

Seriously. It doesn’t take a genius to understand that spending money pales in comparison to spending money wisely. And yet, when I and other Royals fans I’m familiar with complain about the way the club spends money, I continually get the same response.

“Well, at least they’re finally spending money.”

No, you idiot. That doesn’t guarantee you a winner.

Okay, I’m not naive enough to believe that JUST spending a crapload of money doesn’t always get you very far in professional sports. But wasting money makes me even angrier than not having any to spend. That’s why, to me, paying over 4 million dollars to Luke Hochevar is a waste. That’s why I can’t figure out the Miguel Tejada contract.

You can tell me it’s good that the Royals are spending a little more money and I will agree with you, but it’s hard to fully back Dayton Moore on some of the ways he chooses to spend that money.

I’m not saying that being the Royals’ G.M. is an easy job. I’m sure it’s more difficult than I can even imagine, but without a legitimate explanation for moves like these, I continue to be wary.

Spring Training starts in a month and there are a lot of hopes riding on this season. I’m just not sure how these recent moves have helped the team.

On a last note, The Los Angeles Dodgers’ estimated 2013 payroll is increased 123.9% from their 2012 payroll. That figure is mind-boggling to me. The combined payrolls of all 30 MLB teams this season will surpass 3 billion dollars.

That is insane.

*I’ve forgotten the exact amount of days. It’s written on the board in my classroom.

This means that in just over a month, I will be able to watch the Royals play again and despite all the oft-questioned moves of Dayton Moore in the last month, I’m very excited to watch this new team. I’m also very aware that the whole thing could blow up in my face, but nonetheless, I’m excited. I can’t help it.

This is causing me to come to two very important realizations for the coming year.

• I’m becoming more and more confident that Jeff Francoeur is going to be our everyday right-fielder this year. I’d much rather there be some sort of platooning option, much like the Dyson-esque idea put out there on the site a few days ago. I don’t know that Dyson will ever establish himself as a serious contender for consistent MLB time, but at this point I don’t think Francoeur should be garner a starter’s portion of at-bats. Unfortunately, it’s looking more and more an inability to find some way to cut ties with Frenchy’s contract, means the Royals are going to play him consistently in right.
• I’m resolved to being disappointed about the production from the 2nd base, both offensively and defensively. I really don’t know why we signed Miguel Tejada, but I’m thinking that whether it’s Getz, Gio, or even the old man, there’s a lot more that could go worse at that position than positive.

Hmmmmmm

It’s easy to have high expectations going into a new baseball season. Everyone is on the same page. However, I feel like I’m going to treat this year’s team like I treat that movie everyone says is awful. I’ll go into it with severely low expectations and that way I can possibly end up pleasantly surprised. The same mentality goes towards the two aforementioned positions. I will not expect much production from either and if and when some modicrum of production appears, I will be pleasantly surprised.

40-ish days until baseball, People!

October 02, 2012; Kansas City, MO, USA; Kansas City Royals second baseman Irving Falu (19) is congratulated by left fielder Alex Gordon (4) after Falu scores in the fifth inning of the game against the Detroit Tigers at Kauffman Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports

We’re in the home stretch now. Or, in baseball terms, we’re rounding third on the off-season. Only about a month and a half before pitchers and catchers report. Thank God. I can’t stand all this lack of baseball. I’ve probably watched 15 archived games from last season—more if you include some games from James Shields and Wade Davis I’ve watched. That’s how starving I am for Royals baseball. I’m watching games I already know the outcome of.

Today, I watched a game from September and got to see my boy Irving Falu play. I just love Falu. He’s got this energy that makes him fun to watch. Also, he hit .341/.371/.435 last year, which kind of adds to the energy. In the game I watched, he also played a mean second base.

Watching Falu, and Jarrod Dyson in center, got me thinking about what I want the Royals 2013 lineup to look like—not what I think it will look like—but what I want it to look like. Of course, the concept is purely academic. Dayton Moore does not consult me on roster construction (YET!), and Ned Yost does not call about the lineup each day (though he should). But I think it might be a decent conversation starter to tell you how I think the lineup should be constructed. Then, you can tell me I’m wrong if you want.

So, here’s the lineup I’d like to see the Royals use starting the 2013 season:

Alex Gordon (7)

Alcides Escobar (6)

Eric Hosmer (3)

Billy Butler (DH)

Mike Moustakas (5)

Salvador Perez (2)

Lorenzo Cain (9)

Irving Falu (4)

Jarrod Dyson (8)

Bench:*

Jeff Francoeur

Tony Abreu

Brett Hayes

Chris Getz

*I included the bench because I want to show who I’d like on the 25-man roster as well.

I think there are three major points that I should support with this lineup.

1. Falu at second base

Why not Falu at second base? Seriously, in what way has his performance over the last two seasons not been worthy of a shot at second base? I know people like him as a utility man, but I can’t see a second baseman on this roster better than him. Chris Getz? Uhhh, no. Johnny Giavotella? He’s looking more and more like a AAAA player every day. Falu’s numbers last season were most certainly the result of a small sample size, but that doesn’t mean that he can’t follow the same formula for success that a free swinger like Salvador Perez has. Falu only walked 4.4 percent of the time in his 97 PA in 2012, but he only struck out 9.9 percent. He puts a lot of balls in play. His BABIP was an astronomical .382, which led to his high batting average, but his might be consistently high if he keeps putting so many balls in play.

The knock on Falu is that he may need a high BABIP to maintain a high batting average and on-base percentage because he doesn’t walk that much. That’s fine because it looks like he might be able to have a BABIP higher than .300 fairly consistently. Plus, his walk rates in the minors have typically been in the 8-9 percent range, indicating that once he settles into a role, he may feel more comfortable taking walks.

In Falu, the Royals have a mixture of Getz and Giavotella. Falu can defend like Getz and hit like the ideal Giavotella (I say ideal because he hasn’t hit yet). In my ideal lineup Falu is the starting second baseman, and I think he can put up a .290/.340/.415 line in that role. I put Tony Abreu on the bench because he can play more than just second base. I put Getz on the bench because, in theory, he could play third base, and that gives the team a little flexibility. So, if Alcides Escobar needs a day off, Getz could take second and Falu could move to short—and a whole bunch of other combinations.

2. Dyson in center; Francoeur riding pine

This is probably not too shocking. I don’t know anyone who thinks that Francoeur should be playing every day. Then again, I don’t know anyone who thinks Dyson should be playing every day either. But Dyson has the potential to be an every day player. Francoeur has fulfilled his potential, and it’s not everyday material.

I put Dyson there because I think even if he has a season like he did in 2012 (.260/.328/.322) he’ll be more valuable than Francoeur. According to Fangraphs, in 330 PA, he was worth 1.6 WAR last season, mostly because he was worth 7.9 baserunning runs above average and 2.4 fielding runs above average.  Even in Francoeur’s standout 2011, he was only worth 2.9 WAR in 656 PA, and his OBP was only .329—one point higher than Dyson’s from last year. I don’t expect Francoeur to be as bad as he was in 2012, but I don’t expect him to be as good as he was in 2011. I do think Dyson can at least reproduce his 2012, but over 660 PA instead of 330, meaning he should be able to make it toward the 3 WAR range.

I also have faith that Dyson can improve on 2012 a little bit. He did ok in 2012 without fully understanding the approach he should be taking at the plate. If he continues to work on that, he could be even more valuable. I made that point a little bit in an early post when I described how Dyson should become a more effective bunter.

With his baserunning ability, defense, and even his bat, Dyson is just more valuable than Francoeur. So, put him in center field and shift Cain over to right. I left Francoeur on the bench because he can hit lefties a little so if they want to rest Dyson against tough lefties, they can move Cain back to center and put Francoeur in right.

3. Gordon leading off

Despite the fact that I like Dyson—maybe more than most—I don’t want him leading off. He doesn’t get on base enough for that, yet. The fact is a lineup needs to give the best hitters the most opportunities. Those who hit at the top have more plate appearances over the course of a season than those at the bottom. So, good hitters at the top, worse hitters at the bottom. It’s pretty simple.

Gordon is one of the best leadoff hitters in the game. It’s weird, but it’s true. He’s not a major stolen base threat, which is fine because he’s a big-time doubles threat. He’ll put himself in scoring position with doubles instead of doing it with stolen bases. But the thing that makes him a very good leadoff hitter? He gets on base consistently—.376 OBP in 2011, .368 in 2012. Yes, he strikes out too much, but that’s not as big of a deal as people make it out to be for a leadoff hitter. I don’t care if he strikes out as long as he gets on base.

And though Gordon isn’t a base stealer, he runs well. He takes extra bases, and he doesn’t clog things up like Butler does. Frankly, there are only two consistent on-base guys on the Royals active roster—Butler and Gordon. Since Gordon can run a little, he’s perfectly placed to lead off. Would it be ideal if he had Dyson’s speed? Sure, but it’s more important that he gets on base.

There are some who think Gordon should hit lower because he can be a run producer. It’s true that Gordon can hit virtually anywhere in the lineup, but it’s tough to produce runs when no one is on base. Gordon’s value to this team is as a do-everything type. He can score 100 runs and knock in 80 runs in the leadoff spot. In 2011, he scored 101 runs and had 87 RBI; 64 runs and 56 RBI in 89 games as a leadoff hitter. As a leadoff hitter in his career, Gordon has a slash line of .306/.381/.501. That’s an OPS of .883. I want that level of production getting a very high number of plate appearances, and I want that guy on base when Butler hits.

*          *          *

That’s all I have for the lineup. As for the bench, I chose 13 for the position players because I think they’ll need fewer bullpen arms. I’d like Manny Pina to win the catching job instead of Hayes, but that’s not a huge difference maker (unless Perez gets hurt, in which case this whole thing is kinda screwed). I kept Francoeur on the 25-man roster because I’d like this to be semi-realistic, and though he’s not a very good fielder, he does provide a good arm in right field and can sort of hit left handed pitching.

This lineup also seems to indicate that I’m pretty much off the Giavotella bandwagon. I hate to say that, but he’s had 376 PA, and the numbers are atrocious. I like Giavotella as a guy; I had very high hopes for him, but I’m just not seeing it. I’d like to be proven wrong, and I’m open to that happening. But Giavotella is either a starter or a AAA player. He’s not a backup infielder because he can only play second, and he doesn’t even do that very well. Maybe he’ll prove me wrong with a strong showing in Spring Training. But if not …. FALU!

But as I’m sure you know if you’re checking this site during the cold, bitter offseason, there’s just something about baseball. That being said, I want to talk a bit about some games that I am planning on trying to hit this year. Now, I’m going to be living back home in St. Joseph this summer, so I guarantee that I’ll be going to many more games than this throughout the year, but these are the ones I definitively want to hit.

1. Opening Day – Okay, I’ve never been to opening day. I could cite a few different reasons. I’ve generally had school to deal with and honestly, despite the excitement that comes with the beginning of each new season, I’ve never been pumped enough to spend money in these last few years to go see Bruce Chen, Luke Hochevar or someone similar serve court to start a season out. But this year, with Shields taking the mound, I believe that it might be enjoyable to see Kauffman filled up while watching the season begin.

2. Jersey Day – Jersey day is awesome.  I’ve gone the last 4 years and always enjoy it. I’m a sucker for free gear, though, so if that’s not something that appeals to you, I suppose you should skip. But the jerseys always look pretty sweet (in my opinion) and I feel like it makes more sense to pay 30 bucks to go see a game and get a free jersey than it does to throw down $80+ for a jersey and no game. It’s math.

3. Any Game Against The Cardinals – I love going to these games because nothing tastes as sweet as beating the Redbirds. They always travel well and enjoy trying to make a point of filling the stadium with more red than blue. Getting to experience and revel in a victory over St. Louis firsthand is a treat. Trust me.

I’m shooting for at least 15 games this season. It may be a lofty goal, but teachers get a summer break (sweet!) so I think it’s doable.

What are some games you’ve got marked down as “must-sees” this season?

The hard truth is there are no reasonable and good answers to the right field problem. There are pipe dream answers—trade for Giancarlo Stanton. There are insufficient answers—maybe Jeff Francoeurwill play like he did in 2011. But there aren’t any realistically hopeful solutions.

Apr 6, 2011; Kansas City, MO, USA; Kansas City Royals batter Jarrod Dyson (1) lays down a bunt during a game against the Chicago White Sox at Kauffman Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Peter G. Aiken-USA TODAY Sports

Previously, I’ve posited the notion of platooning Francoeur and Jarrod Dyson. Presumably, Dyson would play center field and Lorenzo Cain would move over to right field. The idea being that Francoeur can kind of hit lefties, Dyson can kind of hit righties so maybe together they could be slightly above replacement level. That solutions sounds fairly reasonable and more hopeful than simply allowing Francoeur to enact that seizure like thing he calls a swing at the plate 600 times this season.

Of course none of this would be an issue if Dyson would simply fulfill his potential as a ball player. If he became the player he could be, he would play center, Cain could take right field and Francoeur could start his own lawn care service or something. It’s interesting because by signing Willy Taveras, the Royals have brought in a model to show Dyson what type of ball player he could and should be.

Whenever I see Dyson play I think to myself If this guy knew how to bunt, he’d be an every day centerfielder. Dyson had five bunt hits in 2012 in what amounts to a half-season’s worth of plate appearances. So, project him out to a full season of everyday action, and he’d have roughly 10 bunt hits in a season. That may seem like a lot, but it really isn’t.

Now, let’s look at Taveras. If you ever watched him play in his prime—2005-2007 roughly—then you know he was just as fast as Dyson and bunted a lot. In those four seasons, he had batting averages of .291, .278, and .320 (in 97 games) respectively. In those seasons he also had 31, 21, and 38 bunt hits. This led to really high BABIPs, which Taveras really needed because he never walked and struck out a lot.

Something that really set Taveras apart was how successful he was at bunting for a hit. In 2007, he successfully bunted for a hit 64.4 percent of the time, which is why he hit .320. Over his career, he has been successful 46.3 percent of the time when attempting to bunt for a hit. In comparison, Dyson was only successful 26.3 percent of the time last season. So, it’s safe to say that Dyson doesn’t get many bunt hits because he’s not very good at it, which also makes him try it less.

There are differences, of course, between Taveras and Dyson, and they’re virtually all in Dyson’s favor (except for the fact that Taveras is a much better bunter). Dyson has more plate discipline than Taveras ever has. Taveras has walked only 5.1 percent of the time throughout his career (9.6 percent for Dyson). Taveras hits right handed, which is actually a disadvantage when bunting for hits. Dyson, so far, has been a fairly unambiguously good center fielder while Taveras has had a couple of negative fielding seasons.

Let’s imagine that Dyson could bunt like Taveras in his prime. We’ll take Dyson’s numbers from 2012 and project them for a full season of everyday work in center field and adjust them for a more successful bunter. If we extrapolate Dyson’s numbers from 2012, we get this: 660 PA, 584 AB, 10 BUH, 38 BUH attempts with a success rate of roughly 26 percent. That keeps his season numbers exactly where they were in 2012—.260 BA, .328 OBP. Now, let’s exchange some numbers to make Dyson a good bunter. Let’s say his success rate is 40 percent (six percent below Taveras’ but equal to Alcides Escobar’s success rate in 2012). That would give him 15 BUH. With that simple change, his BA goes up to .268, and his OBP goes up to .332.

Those numbers are miles ahead of Francoeur’s .235 BA and .287 OBP from 2012 (though I don’t believe Francoeur will be quite that bad in 2013).

Now, let’s think about a scenario in which Dyson, because he’s a more successful bunter, bunts more often. Starting from the same numbers as before, let’s say he attempts to bunt for a hit 70 times in a season. At a 40 percent success rate, he would collect 28 BUH. That would leave 590 PA and 514 AB. Add Dyson’s usual performance to his increase in bunting ability and frequency, and his batting average rises to .277. If Dyson could get to .277 and roughly .335-.340 OBP, he could be an everyday centerfielder with his excellent defense and baserunning ability.

What are the odds of this occurring? Maybe 5 percent. People need to give Dyson a lot of credit for how much he’s improved over his time in the Royals organization. But he’s 28 years old, and developing a significant new skill is tough with such limited time.

Still, he should try. He should spend time talking with Taveras in Spring Training and working to develop his overall hitting approach to take advantage of his skill set. In fact, the conspiracy theorist in me believes the Royals signed Taveras with the intent of having him mentor Dyson a little bit. Part of Dyson’s problem is that he seems to slip out of the mindset he needs to always have—one of a speed oriented Juan Pierre type player. By the way, Pierre’s career BUH success rate is 34.3 percent. Kenny Lofton’s was 45.1 percent.

I think there’s something to this idea.

And….Gasp! Your Royals fan wants a jersey! But how will you know what player’s jersey to invest in? Royals players seem to zoom in and out of Kansas City as if Kauffman Stadium was a giant revolving door. And buying a Royals player’s jersey is like trying to keep up with the most current Iphone. You’re gonna have to trade it in next year for a new one. Well, fear not, procrastinating shopper! I will help you acquire a jersey that will (hopefully) last for awhile. The trick is to disregard guys you don’t think will be around for much longer…..or guys that stink…unless you’re trying to make a point. Well, we’ll get to that.

I hope this gives you some direction in your holiday jersey-acquiring endeavors. And seriously. If you find an Jose Offerman jersey somewhere in the Large to X-large range, you let me know and we will figure out a way for you to get that to me. (You’ll see what I’m talking about in a minute.)

Let’s get started:

1. George Brett – Okay, this is kind of a cop-out, but…I mean…you can be assured that he’s never going to be traded. So there’s that.
2. Salvador Perez – Once he was back from injury last year, it looked like the Royals made one of the smartest moves in history by extending him right before Spring Training last year. This guy’s jersey is a long-term investment. It’s a smart buy.
3. Alex Gordon – Those who bought his jersey right after we drafted him have spent a couple of years sweating out the purchase, but he’s finally come up spades as a baseball player in the last few years. I think this would be a safe buy.
4. Carlos Beltran – Being that I was hardly alive the last time the Royals played a significant game in September/October, I can say that the first Royal I really followed with vigor was one Carlos Beltran. That guy was a great Royal. Heck, he was one of the few people who put on a Cardinal uniform last season that I didn’t loathe. I didn’t like him….but I didn’t loathe him either. Incidentally, please buy the ROYALS Beltran jersey and not the Cardinals one, unless you want to break your special Royals fan’s little heart.
5. (Insert Super Obscure Jersey Here) – I am a gentleman who loves an obscure jersey. A couple of years ago, I went to Chiefs training camp and saw a guy in a Dustin Colquitt PRO BOWL JERSEY! Mad respect goes to that guy for laying down lettuce for that outerwear. How many of those do you think have been sold. 3?….5?….It can’t be double digits. Anyways. I love when someone snags an obscure jersey to wear to games. I’m talking about your Jose Offerman jerseys, your Doug Mientkiewicz* jerseys and the like. If your Royals fan likes obscurity as much as I do, this may be the path for you to take. You may have to do a little research to figure out which obscure player would be best, but trust me….the overjoyed look on your loved one’s face will be well worth it. (*I just Googled Mientkiewicz’s name to see how to spell it. Did you know that guy is managing the Minnesota Class-A advanced team now? Wasn’t expecting that. Interesting.)

And I don’t really understand why. It’s not that people are down on Smith, but they’re not nearly as high on him as I believe they should be. With this post, I’m going to let you know why everyone should be excited about Smith. Fangraphs put Smith into the Royals top-10 prospect rankings, but he’s nowhere to be seen in the Baseball America top-10, and that’s with other pitchers like Sam Selman and Jason Adam in there.

Near the top of that list, which included Wil Myers and Jake Odorizzi, was Kyle Zimmer, and it makes no sense to me that Zimmer is rated so much higher than Smith. Set aside their makeup for now—Zimmer has the prototypical body for a top-notch pitcher while Smith is a bit small. Looking strictly at how they have performed as prospects, they seem to be very similar with Smith being a full year younger.

Both started professional baseball last season by doing a short stint in Rookie ball and then heading to Kane County. People were happy with Zimmer’s performance there. In nearly 30 IP at Kane County, he had a 2.43 ERA, 29 SO (8.80 K/9), and only 8 BB. That’s pretty good, especially for someone who hasn’t pitched much in his life. In fact, Smith may have more pitching experience than Zimmer, though not at the college level.

In comparison, Smith fared a little better than Zimmer at Kane County. He pitched 67.1 innings with 87 SO and 20 BB. Smith’s ERA was a touch higher at 2.94, but that’s probably due to a BABIP of .349. Think about that. Smith had a BABIP of .349 and still had an ERA under three, but that’s not unbelievable because he struck out 11.63 batters per nine innings. He faced exactly 300 hitters in both Rookie ball and low A and struck out 98 of them (that’s almost a third). Of course, Smith is a high school draft pick so he’s doing all of this at 19 years old. Zimmer is a young college signee, and was 20 last year.

For a comparison, Danny Duffy had a 11.24 K/9 rate and a 2.40 FIP at low A. Smith’s FIP was 2.13. So, as far as performance goes, there’s no reason to not love Smith.

Let’s return to that makeup. At 6’ 0” and 170 pounds, Smith is not a big guy, and this is the heart of why people don’t hype him more. Because statistical analysis and looking past appearance has become more a part of the game recently, we sometimes forget that it’s still engrained in us to look at things like a guy’s height and make assumptions about what that guy can be. Does his body structure make him more prone to injury? I’m not sure. But I know he was healthier than Zimmer in 2012. For now, can we not get behind him because he’s doing really well and wait for an injury to sour us on him?

And let’s not forget that there are pitchers who have been successful with shorter statures. Pedro Martinez was 5’ 11”. Roy Oswalt is 6’0”. In fact, Oswalt, I think, is a decent comp for where Smith could end up if everything comes together. Oswalt threw a little harder than Smith does right now, but it’s not unheard of for a pitcher to gain some velocity in his early 20s as his body continues to develop and his motion becomes more refined.

How’s his stuff? you may ask. That’s harder to determine. I’ve never seen him play, but the reports on him range from potentially wicked stuff to above average stuff. Most agree that his fastball will probably end up around the 91-93 range, touching 95 at times. Some claim that his curveball is just devastating, and in this clip of him pitching at the Underarmor game, it looks pretty good. Here’s a report from Royals Revival on him, which I was glad to see was very optimistic.*

*Note in the comment left, a person who knows Smith mentions what a good person he is. This seems in keeping with the different pieces I’ve read on him which mention a terrific work ethic and good character.

Looking at Smith, I can’t see any reason not to be optimistic about him. He’s going to be a 20-year-old pitcher at high A next year, and if the writing on him is any indication, he has a wonderful pitching mind. He faced top-notch competition in high school coming from Florida and blew that competition away. The only conclusion I can reach is that Smith is underrated because of his height, which may be a good thing for the Royals. They took him in the fourth round, and if he continues to develop and becomes an Oswalt or Tim Hudson, the Royals can take a bow for a wonderful find. They can say they looked past his height and saw the competitor in him instead—all that cliché crap.

Regardless, it’s time for people to start talking more about this kid. When Zimmer finds his way to the majors, it may be in the shadow of Smith.

Greg Schaum, the awesome operator of and writer for Pinetarpress.com, recently projected the Royals to win 78 games next year; if you don’t follow him on Twitter you should. I was a little surprised by how low that number was, as were many others who let Greg know about it, I think. But I wanted to think about this myself as well so I started really digging into numbers, mostly projections and numbers from last year.

Schaum’s prediction seemed overly cautious but reasonable. In the offseason, things always look rosier than in reality. I was thinking maybe a little higher, 81, but certainly not 95. Then, I dug into the numbers and started to see that the potential for 90 wins is certainly there. Is it likely? Probably not. But the Royals wouldn’t really need a chorus of career years to get to 90 wins. They’d just need guys to perform as expected and stay relatively healthy.

Here’s why I believe that. I think people are actually underselling the importance of pitching changes and player growth—hard to believe, I know. This makes sense given the battered psyche of Royals fans. But if we dig into the numbers, the future looks a little brighter than the darkest parts of our hearts might believe.

We’ll start with the hitters and the projections Bill James has made for the Royals lineup, which is virtually unchanged from 2012:

September 25, 2012; Detroit, MI, USA; Kansas City Royals left fielder Alex Gordon (4) at bat against the Detroit Tigers at Comerica Park. Mandatory Credit: Rick Osentoski-USA TODAY Sports

Alex Gordon(.284/.366/.457) 19 HR, 95 R

Alcides Escobar (.272/.314/.365) 5 HR, 74 R

Eric Hosmer (.276/.342/.442) 20 HR, 79 R

Billy Butler (.300/.368/.490) 24 HR, 78 R

Mike Moustakas (.264/.316/.455) 23 HR, 75 R

Salvador Perez (.299/.329/.456) 16 HR, 65 R

Lorenzo Cain (.280/.332/.424) 15 HR, 83 R

Johnny Giavotella (.286/.339/.407) 7 HR, 55 R

Jeff Francoeur (.260/.314/.418) 13 HR, 50 R

Chris Getz/Irving Falu (.267/.327/.337) 1 HR, 32 R

Jarrod Dyson (.257/.323/.314) 0 HR, 29 R

Brett Hayes 0 HR, 10 R

I put homeruns and the slash lines in for context, but the most important stats are the runs scored. That’s what we’re interested in. Add up those runs scored and you get 725 runs. That’s not bad. That’s one run less than the Tigers scored last year and good enough for 12th in MLB. It’s also only five short of the 730 the Royals scored in 2011 with career years from Francoeur, Gordon, and Melky Cabrera. But remember, in 2011 Escobar wasn’t hitting and the Royals didn’t get full seasons from Perez, Moustakas, or Hosmer. If those players give full seasons of what is expected of them, the Royals can get to the 730 range again. They might need to maximize players’ opportunity to be successful *cough* sit Francoeur against righties *cough*, but they can be that offensively productive without out-of-this-world seasons from a bunch of guys.

Now, the pitching, and this seems to be where people are underestimating the value of the changes—hard to believe, right. Here are the projections by James for the Royals starting rotation:

James Shields (3.67 ERA, 89 R, 218 IP)

Jeremy Guthrie (4.20 ERA, 92 R, 197 IP)

Ervin Santana (4.04 ERA, 92 R, 205 IP)

Wade Davis (4.20 ERA, 89 R, 190 IP)*

Bruce Chen (4.25 ERA, 86 R, 182 IP)**

*This is my projection for Davis. James’ projection was for Davis as a reliever. I tried to approximate him based on his previous starting experience.

**I made Chen the fifth starter because I believe he should be the fifth starter.

By these projections, the Royals starting staff will account for 448 R over 992 IP in 2013. That’s a 4.06 ERA, which is an incredibly drastic change from 2012 when the starting rotation accounted for 527 R in 890 IP for a 5.00 ERA. This is a remarkable projection. For a team to shave a full run off the starting staff’s ERA while adding 100 innings is remarkable. If the Royals can do that, they will be playoff contenders almost certainly.

However, with starting pitching, injuries ineffectiveness are bound to play a role. So, for the sake of making this projection as fair as possible, let’s raise that ERA a little to 4.20 to account for some of those unknown variables. That’s around major league average. That brings the starting staff to 463 R over 992 IP (I’m still going to assume we get the same number of total innings from starters).

Sep 27, 2012; Chicago, IL, USA; Tampa Bay Rays starting pitcher James Shields throws a pitch against the Chicago White Sox during the first inning at US Cellular Field. Mandatory Credit: Jerry Lai-USA TODAY Sports

The bullpen was fantastic last year, and because there are so many pitchers in the bullpen I’m going to do their numbers as a group. They had a 3.17 ERA last year, and there’s no reason that with a years worth of experience and a better starting staff they won’t at least stay that good. Assuming the Royals pitch roughly the same number of innings this year as last, that means the bullpen will account for 162 R in 459 IP in 2013. That brings the total number of runs allowed to 625 (Again, that’s using our conservative estimate of starting pitching. If we go with James’ estimation, it’s 610 R).

Luckily, we can come up with projections on win totals from projections on run totals. The Pythagorean winning percentage formula gives our projection (725 runs scored and 625 runs allowed) a record of 92-70. Of course, that doesn’t mean that Royals will win 92 games, but I think it means that the Royals have the capability of winning 92 games without some miracle scenario.

Let me be clear. I do not think the Royals are going to win 92 games. Things are going to happen that the numbers, projections, and so on can’t account for, but I think it’s fair to say that their expectation should be between 86-88 wins. They easily have the players to win that number of games. The improved starting rotation will make an extreme difference from last year when not only did they have a staff full of 4 and 5 starters, but that staff underperformed as well. They were expected to pitch like 4s and 5s and pitched like minor leaguers (some of that was due to the injuries to Danny Duffy and Felipe Paulino). On offense, getting a full year of Perez and bounce back years from Hosmer and Francoeur will help tremendously (Yes, Francoeur is terrible, but he’s not as bad as he played last year).

The reason I think some people are coming up with projections lower than 86 wins is that we’re programmed as Royals fans to expect our players to underperform. We’re programmed to expect more damaging injuries than other teams, and it’s fair to have these reactions because it’s happened so many times. But let’s consider the alternative. What if there isn’t massive underperformance? What if there aren’t too many serious injuries? If those two are true, this team should win at least 86-88 games with the potential to win 92 and up.

That will be an extremely fun season to watch.

What I offer the viewing public is a hazy answer to these two questions: What would it have looked like if Shields had been a part of the Royals rotation in 2012? And by extension, to what extent might he impact 2013? Obviously, there are many flaws in this inquiry; most obvious among them is the person conducting it. But also, the high level of turnover makes the 2013 rotation virtually incomparable to the 2012 rotation. But using my favorite friends conjecture and speculation I’ll find a way to make it seem like I’ve stumbled upon some grand statistical truth. Or not. Yeah?

Ok. Check the methods. I started by constructing the numbers for the Royals starters from last year (this is why they may look a tenth off from other sites). I actually added up all the numbers from only their starters and did the averages and everything. So, essentially what I’m doing is replacing an average Royals starting pitcher from 2012 with Shield’s 2012. This is a little disingenuous because in reality, Shields would have crowded out some of the worst performances so chalk it up to a conservative statistical exercise. I chose to use Shields’ 2012 not just because it’s the obvious choice to compare to the Royals’ starting pitching in 2012 but also because it’s pretty representative of what people should expect from Shields in 2013. This inquiry also doesn’t account for Shields’ ability to eat innings—meaning if Shields had been in the rotation last year the Royals starters would have gone more total innings. It’s just a replacement of his innings for average Royals innings.

Here’s what I came up with:

Royals*          Shields          Royals w/Shields

Earned Runs             495                 89                   457

Hits                             981                 208                 938

Walks                          315                 58                   292

ERA                             5.00                3.52               4.62

WHIP                          1.46                1.17                1.38

*These are numbers for all 13 pitchers who started a game for the Royals last season

There you have it, a pretty remarkable difference. Almost half-a-run in improved ERA is pretty significant for one pitcher to bring to the table. He can have that type of impact because he pitches so many innings. His 227.2 innings pitched represent more than a quarter of the total number of innings Royals starters pitched in 2012—890. That is both incredible and not surprising. It’s incredible that Shields gives his team so many innings; it’s also incredible how little the Royals starters pitched last year. So it’s not surprising that Shields’ numbers make such a large dent. In innings, he’s worth 1.25 Royals starting pitchers in 2012, which if you’re a stats person is just nuts.

How do the numbers with Shields in the Royals lineup compare to the rest of the league? Still not great, but better. American League average for starting pitching ERA was 4.39, which isn’t too far away from the Royals numbers with Shields in the rotation. Last year, they were 11th in starting pitcher ERA (AL). Personally, I was shocked to learn they weren’t last or next to last. With Shields, they would have only moved up to 10th, but remember this is a pretty conservative estimate. I think it’s fair to say that in reality, with him replacing the worst performances, they might have made it near the 7-8 range.*

*This is off topic, but sometimes I wonder how this team even won 72 games last year. They were just not very good at all.

Looking ahead, I’m thinking this provides a little rosy glow to a trade many, including me, have criticized as short-sighted and reckless. Assuming the Royals get a Shields performance circa the last two years, he’ll greatly impact the rotation. The odds of a 12 game losing streak decrease dramatically, and there’s something to be said for playing with a lead entering the sixth inning occasionally. Consider that no starting pitcher for the Royals was worth more than 1.8 WAR last season, and Shields was worth 4.3, and this trade makes 2013 look hopeful. Are the Royals the favorite in the AL Central? No. But they’re in the conversation for sure.

I imagine the Royals have the chance to make it to around 4.00 ERA as a starting staff next season if everything falls into place. This would be a HUGE help. Last season, that would have been good enough for 5th in the American League just ahead of the Angels. That, of course, will require good seasons from Jeremy Guthrie, Ervin Santana, and Wade Davis as well. That’s probably asking too much, but what the hell, dream big.

Thanks to copious amounts of propaganda and time to emotionally detach from the transaction, I’m starting to feel much better about it. Is it a HUGE gamble? Yes. Essentially, Moore is betting that in the next two years Shields, and in the next four years Davis, provide enough value in helping the team win to make up for the lost value of Wil Myers and Jake Odorizzi from 2015-2018, at least. That could mean increasing revenue via winning so they can spend to sign position players long term. It could mean buying time to let Jorge Bonifacio develop and counting on him to become a legitimate everyday outfielder at the major league level. Whatever the scenario, it’s a huge gamble.

But I’m starting to fall on the side of those who think the Royals had to gamble at some point. Yes, the price was high; that’s gambling. They don’t give money to people who don’t bet. Trust me, I’ve tried that strategy and it doesn’t work. The alternative may have been to keep Myers and live with a very uncertain rotation for another year or two or more, essentially guaranteeing a non-contending team in 2013 and maybe again in 2014. People can quote all the Anibal Sanchez numbers they want; he was never coming to Kansas City. Anything less than Shields gave them an even worse shot at competing. So, when does that end? Dayton Moore decided it would end in 2013 and that he would worry about 2015 later. That might be the best move for the Royals right now. It sounds like hedging my bets, but it’s true that we won’t know until 2016 or so—maybe sooner if the Royals make the playoffs in 2013 or 2014.

I’ll leave you with a quote from one of my favorite movies, Rounders, that I think perfectly sums up the argument for why this trade might be a good one for the Royals (I say ‘might’). In it Mike McDermott, played by the awesomely badass Matt Damon, is torn between going for a big score in a poker game or playing it safe and walking away:

“I told Worm you can’t lose what you don’t put in the middle.” (He pauses for dramatic effect as he’s nearly out the door)

“But you can’t win much either.”

My high school was small enough that there was not a baseball team. We had track, cross-country, basketball, and eight-man football, but no baseball. I really started following the Royals passionately during my freshman year of high school. It wasn’t long before I felt I had the authority to act supremely snobbish whenever someone started talking about the team. I knew who Alex Gordon was. I knew Hochevar was going to be the next coming of Zack Greinke.*

*I didn’t know as much as I thought.

It wasn’t long before I realized that judging and mocking people who I think are “lesser fans” than myself was a waste of time.* Anymore, I think are willing to call yourself a Royals fan, you deserve no mockery from people who have, perhaps, followed the team for a couple more years than you have. You’re not really jumping on the bandwagon of a winning team. Heck, when and if the Royals ever amount to anything, I’m going to be so ecstatic about the state of things, I don’t think I’ll have time to get annoyed by “Royals fans” suddenly appearing out of the woodwork.

*Unless it’s a fan of another team telling me about how dumb Royals management is. Look, the Royals often make foolish decisions. But if I hear the “the Royals traded Carlos Beltran and Jermaine Dye!” argument, I will ignore you. It proves to me that you haven’t been tuning in for about ten years.

Anyways, this spiel actually comes from watching that new Dick’s Sporting Goods commercial that was released a few weeks ago. If you haven’t seen it, watch it here.

This reminds me of why I love sports in general and specifically, baseball. As an individual who majored in English and is currently a high school English teacher, I enjoy things for the stories they tell.

The reason I’m a fan of baseball? All the stories I’ve gotten to be a part of. Each game I’ve watched was a story. Each game I’ve attended was a story. Stories that I experienced with family and people close to me and that makes each story special.

The reason I love baseball is because when I’m sitting in the stands watching Alex Gordon lace a double into the corner to drive in two runs, I am immensely happy. And when Hochever gives up 7 earned runs in the first inning of a game, I am sick to my stomach.

“Well, uh….Luke has got good stuff…..and toughness….grit….words.” (Don McPeak-USA Today Sports)

Baseball tells a story and that is why I come back to the Royals year after year. The stories may not always be happy. But they are MY stories and that’s a connection that can’t be broken by how well the team plays.

Although, it’d be nice if the team could be good.

Zack Greinke, the lovable eccentric and part-time pitcher*, has signed his gazillion dollar deal and set the market for starting pitchers this off-season. He set it extremely high, a problem for cash strapped teams like the Royals, but they still have some room left to spend in the free agent pitching market if they would like to.

*I am, of course, joking. Greinke is an outstanding pitcher.

The problem? There’s not much left in the way of potential impact pitchers.

Sep 28, 2012; Arlington, TX, USA; Texas Rangers starting pitcher Ryan Dempster (46) throws a pitch during the first inning of the game against the Los Angeles Angels at Rangers Ballpark. Mandatory Credit: Tim Heitman-USA TODAY Sports

Let’s have a look at them:

Anibal Sanchez

Kyle Lohse

Edwin Jackson

Ryan Dempster

Francisco Liriano

Shaun Marcum

Roy Oswalt

Joe Saunders

Daisuke Matsuzaka

(this list via the ESPN.com MLB Rumors page)

Once we remove Sanchez, who the Royals either can’t or won’t afford, this list isn’t awe-inspiring. I’m going to toss a couple other names off that list as well, mostly because they’re terrible: Liriano, Saunder, and Matsuzaka.

That leaves five potential free agent targets, and it’s important to look at free agency before trades because a trade is looking less and less likely. The Royals don’t want to give up Wil Myers, and he’s the only player teams want for significant, major-league-ready pitching. I don’t think a trade’s going to happen for starting pitching at this point so free agency is the best bet for the Royals to improve.

Let me also note that not making an aggressive play for Brandon McCarthy was a mistake. Bill James is predicting a 3.46 ERA for McCarthy next season; the Royals could surely use that. Add to that the fact that he went for $7.75 million a year for two years, and it seems like the Royals missed the boat. He’s a guy who can impact the top of a rotation, and that’s the perfect contract for them. Added bonus, he could have educated the Royals coaching staff on statistical analysis.

But back to the guys still available. Do you have any favorites? I do, though each is a significant gamble. First, though, let me tell you about the guys I’m not wild about. I know Rany Jazayerli is into Marcum, but I can’t get on board with that. I know he’s a local guy, but there are too many red flags for me. He gets hurt a lot, and even when he doesn’t I think he’s overvalued. He had two healthy years in 2010 and 2011 and had xFIP of 3.71 and 3.89 respectively. That’s pretty good, but it’s not out of this world. And when you factor in his age and terrible track record making it to the mound (those two years are the only years he’s pitched more than 151 innings), I can’t get on board. It would be one thing to take a chance on an aging and unhealthy guy if he’s had a track record as a lights out pitcher (I’ll give an example later), but to take a chance on a guy whose ceiling is a decent number two, I can’t get behind that.

I can’t get behind Lohse either. To me, he’s an albatross of a contract waiting to happen. Someone is going to give him more money or more years than he’s worth and be stuck with another pitcher who had a couple decent seasons in St. Louis, got a payday, and flamed out. He’s hitting the market at just the right time. Teams are pitching desperate and the market for them is soaring. I hope the Royals stay out of the conversation with Lohse. He’s aging, he’ll demand a big contract, and he’s not nearly as good as people think he is.

There are three pitchers remaining who could help the Royals, maybe not in the front-line starter way they’re hoping, but help them for a reasonable price none-the-less: Dempster, Jackson, and Oswalt. That’s right I said Oswalt. I know he’s older than the dust that collects on dirt, but why not take a chance on him? I don’t think many are courting him. Demand is low after what looked like a pretty bad stint with the Rangers last year. But was it that bad? No. In fact, the peripherals were great. He struck out 22.4 percent of batters (9.00 K/9), walked only 4.2 percent (1.68 BB/9), and had an xFIP of 3.27. His ERA was out of control because he gave up a crazy number of homeruns (1.68 HR/9) and his BABIP was enormous at .378. Bill James projects Oswalt to have a bounce back year with a 3.64 ERA and 3.52 FIP. His average fastball in 2012 was 91.5, the same as 2011 with the Phillies and just a shade under his heyday. The Royals should at least inquire. Maybe he won’t want to come here, but they should try. If they can get 28 starts out of him, it would be more than worth what they would have to pay him, and he’d probably be willing to take a one-year deal.

Jackson is another guy the market seems to have cooled on. He had a lot of juice around him last year because people wondered if he might not emerge into greatness. That didn’t happen. Jackson had another Jackson-like year. Right around 3.75 xFIP, high threes to low fours ERA. That’s what Jackson is. He’s also a reliable pitcher who can eat innings. He’s gone at least 189 innings every year since 2009 and made at least 31 starts every year since 2007. He made $11 million last season on a one-year deal. I’m not sure the market is as hot for him this year, but he might command around the same figure, something the Royals could afford if he’s ok with taking another one-year deal.

Most of the buzz around the Royals and free agent starting pitching over the last 24 hours has centered on Dempster. He wants three years; no one wants to give it to him. Here’s an article from Michael Engel about the situation. In the comments, I posit a compromise in which the Royals make it an option year with incentives that would guarantee it. So, if Dempster makes 30 starts in his first two years with an xFIP of 3.9 or under, his third year becomes guaranteed. I have concern about Dempster’s ability to pitch in the American League, because of his terrible stint in Texas. But for the most part, he’s a known quantity. He had a rough 2011 ERA-wise, but his XFIP was right on track with his usual 3.7 range. He’s good for about 3.0-3.5 WAR virtually every year (excepting 2011 when it was 2.7 and 2008 when it was 5.2). Dempster would be the best pitcher on the Royals’ roster, but they can’t afford to sink the ship for him. According to Mlbtraderumors.com, they’ve offered the most money of any team interested over two years. If I were the Royals, I’d hold on that offer until it looks like someone might up the money for two years and then start talking about an option year with incentives (it’s a good idea GMDM should use it). That would be my ceiling though. No guaranteed third year.

If none of this sounds too hopeful, that’s because it isn’t. Each of these guys is a gamble and a stopgap. The Royals can’t let a contract they give this group be the thing that prevents them from signing talent long term. They also don’t want to have taken on Ervin Santana’s contract for nothing. They need to try to compete in 2013, which is looking less likely as the starting pitching market thins. Sure, if everything goes right, they can compete. But how often does everything go right? That’s a strategy for 70 win seasons.

I suppose in retrospect the odds of the Royals nabbing a front-line starting pitcher were never great. Now, it looks nearly impossible unless they make a really stupid decision and trade Myers. But, hey, I’ve heard Luke Hochevar is just about to turn the corner so maybe all the Royals’ problems are solved.

1) The first news article I saw was entitled “Getz returns to Royals with one-year deal.” This isn’t necessarily so funny in and of itself, but a quote by Chris Getz regarding his injury-plagued season made me chuckle:

You kind of know if you’re going to be around .300 and there are other years where you’re kind of inconsistent and battling to be around .250,” he said. “That was the hardest part, because I felt I was having one of those around-.300 years, but I just kept being knocked down by injuries.

I don’t exactly know where Getz is coming from. I find it doubtful that a player comes into a year thinking, “Man, it feels like a .250 year,” or “Man, there’s no way I’m hitting anything less that .300 this year.” Mostly this is funny because in all the years Getz has been in the league, he only sniffed .300 in 2008 as a member of the White Sox where he batted .286. So here’s to hoping that Getz “feels like it’s another .300 type of year.”

2) The next article that caught my eye was entitled “Glass keeps future in mind as Royals eye upgrades.” There are plenty of amusing quotes to tickle your innards as you read, but I chose this one:

What we’ve said is we need to be in the $70 million range to break even, and our goal is to try to continue to break even,” Glass said. “We’re not interested in making money, but we don’t want to subsidize it to any great extent.

I could sit here and discuss with you the issues with this statement, but as luck would have it, Rany just posted an article that discusses the budget and he does it in a much more knowledgeable way than I ever could. The article doesn’t strictly deal with the financial straits of the franchise, but he does hit on it at the end and his posts are always worth a read. Take a look at it here and smirk cynically at the idea of “breaking even” with me.

3) The final article I’m taking a look at is “Royals uniform numbers a Powerball coincidence.” I’m originally from St. Joseph, Missouri, which is near Dearborn and when I originally heard that one of the Powerball winners up there had used Royals uniform numbers to pick numbers, I thought it was a pretty good story and was hoping that it proved true. My hopes were, however, dashed:

The Hills, from Dearborn, Mo. (pop. 496), near Kansas City, did not pick their winning Powerball Lottery numbers by summoning up the uniform numbers of Royals stars of the past. It was a nice theory bounced around the Internet for a while on Friday.

Apparently these guys are Royals fans, though, so maybe they’ll donate some of their winnings to payroll?

I don’t think that’s unreasonable.

Obviously, Jake Odorizzi has arisen as the primary pitcher to make a splash at the big league level in the upcoming season. After spending the primary part of the 2012 season in (AAA) Omaha, where he went 11-3 with a 2.93 ERA, Odorizzi got a brief glimpse of the majors to the tune of 7.1 innings pitched with 4 earned runs, 4 strikeouts and 4 walks.

This year, hopes are riding pretty high on Odorizzi’s success. But what about the farm’s now tarnished former golden boys, Mike Montgomery and John Lamb?

Montgomery is coming off a fairly ugly year split between (AA) NW Arkansas and (AAA) Omaha. He went 2-6 with a 6.67 ERA at (AA) ball and 3-6 with a 5.69 ERA at the (AAA) level. Maybe he’ll come to spring training and blow everyone away. Maybe he will continue to be awful. He seems to have taken a giant step back and I will be surprised if he makes any kind of noise this season. I’m hoping he’ll surprise me anyways.

I don’t want this guy to fall off the map. (Kyle Terada-US PRESSWIRE)

I’m really intrigued by John Lamb, though. Spring training in 2013 will mark just under 2 years since Lamb went down with Tommy John. It’d be wonderful if he came out and pitched adequately enough to make the big league squad.

It’s true that the only reason Lamb looks better at this point is due to the fact that he didn’t have the chance to be as bad as Montgomery was. It’s possible that given the same opportunities that Montgomery had last year, Lamb might have tanked as well. Fate saw differently, though, and now I’m ready to see if Lamb is up to the task.

In my mind, it’s likely that Lamb and (definitely) Montgomery will probably need some more time honing their stuff in the minors, (if they don’t completely flop that is) but if one of them could shoot out of the gates this year and prove themselves worthy of a spot in the rotation, how great would that be?

I think we are in desperate need of some solid arms moving up the pipe to the big leagues and I think Montgomery, Lamb, and Odorizzi are the closest to making a splash. If 2 out of 3 can surprise us in 2013. That’d be huge.

I just want to see one of these highly touted arms actually come to the major league team and have success.

September 27, 2012; Detroit, MI, USA; Kansas City Royals designated hitter Billy Butler (16) hits a home run during the ninth inning against the Detroit Tigers at Comerica Park. Mandatory Credit: Rick Osentoski-US PRESSWIRE

So many trade rumors swirling around. So much trade talk flying everywhere. It’s hard to keep track of it all. It’s hard to think that the Royals will make it through the next month without sending their whole roster to Tampa, Seattle, or Oakland. It scares me a bit, as I’m always afraid of the lopsided trade that goes against the Royals.

For the most part, I feel like most of this talk is nonsense. I think the Royals are exploring all of these options, but I also think there’s really only one option that makes sense (of course this doesn’t preclude the Royals from making a move that makes no sense): Bill Butler for James Shields.

I came to think conclusion while trying to consider what would serve both teams best, and this is all I came up with. All the other scenarios just don’t add up. Wil Myers is too valuable for different reasons (potential value at the major league level and years of team control at a cheap price). Alex Gordon is also too valuable at 6-7 WAR unless Tampa is considering trading Matt Moore, which I don’t think they are. Mike Moustakas has no value to Tampa, and the prospects for Seattle either aren’t good enough for the Royals’ needs (a number one type starting pitcher) or aren’t ready yet (Danny Hultzen, Taijuan Walker). It’s a matter of the three major compenents coming together: performance value, need, and contract.

Butler for Shields is the only combo that makes that trinity work because each team gets equal value for something they desperately need, and the contracts essentially even out. Shields put up a 4.3 WAR last season, which is really great for a pitcher. He’s good for around a 3.5-4 WAR easily. Butler put up a 3.2, his best ever, and is poised to repeat that performance, as he’s entering his prime hitting years. So, Shields may be a little more valuable using that metric, but I’d call it roughly a wash. I think that metric overvalues defensive contribution and baserunning and thus undervalues players like Butler who primarily DH and can’t run.

Obviously, the Royals need starting pitching, but more pointedly, they need ace-like starting pitching. Is Shields and “ace”? If not, he’s damn close. He’s gone over 200 innings every season since 2007. He’s had a xFIP from 3.24-3.87 since 2007. His K/9 rate has been over eight since 2010. His BB/9 is 2.35 and under since 2007.  And for those of you who like the old-school ERA, four of his six full seasons have been mid-threes or below.

On the other side of the coin, the Rays need a difference maker with the bat. Butler is most certainly that. His slash line last season was stellar, .313/.373/.510. His power numbers were up, 29 homeruns and an ISO of .197. Maybe most importantly, no one for Tampa with more than 400 PA had a higher wRC+ (weighted runs created in relation to league average). Butler’s wRC+ was 140, meaning he created 40% more runs than league average, which tied him with David Wright, Josh Hamilton, and Joe Mauer. That’s very good company to be in, and the Rays need that type of offense to compete in what is now a somewhat weakened AL East. Butler provides a consistent and ascending middle of the order hitter.

September 3, 2012; St. Petersburg, FL, USA; Tampa Bay Rays starting pitcher James Shields (33) throws a pitch in the first inning against the New York Yankees at Tropicana Field. Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement-US PRESSWIRE

One of the big holdups I have with the Royals trading Myers is that he’s under cheap team control for a long time, while the player they get in return may not be. I’d hate to end up in a Brewers-Greinke situation in which we give up a potentially great player(s) with many years of team control for a good player we’re renting for a year or a year and a half. Butler for Shields doesn’t present this problem. Butler has one more year on his contract than Shields does, but for the Royals that shouldn’t make much of a difference. The Royals could keep Shields for 2013 and 2014 for roughly $21 million, with 2014 being a team option year at $12 million.* Butler is due $16 million over the next two seasons guaranteed, but has a team option for 2015 at $12.5 million. This makes Butler a little more valuable contract-wise, but it may make up for what may be seen as a little less value in performance. That said, neither is in the young and cheap phase of his career, but both seem to be worth the money they’re paid. With Butler and Luke Hochevar’s contracts off the payroll (I’ll pack Hoch’s bags for him), and with Bruce Chen, Jeff Francoeur, and Ervin Santana coming off next year, the Royals could afford to keep Shields for both years if they wanted to. And the Rays would save money trading for Butler since he costs less than Shields.

*These contract numbers are according to Baseball Reference, and I’m not sold that their numbers are completely legit. They may just be base salary, no incentives or anything. I’m not sure, but other sites have differing numbers.

The only question I really have is, why isn’t this getting done? What’s the hold up? I mean, either side (probably the Royals), may need to throw in some low-level prospects. Nothing too fancy, maybe someone like Kyle Smith or Jorge Bonifacio or Cheslor Cuthbert. Nothing so prized as Kyle Zimmer or Adalberto Mondesi. Both sides are winners in this scenario. It makes too much sense not to do it.

July 9, 2012; Kansas City, MO, USA; USA team pitcher Danny Hultzen (21) delivers a pitch in the third inning of the 2012 All Star Futures Game at Kauffman Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Denny Medley-US PRESSWIRE

A post from ESPN.com writer David Schoenfield today explained, essentially, what every Royals fan already knows. If the Royals can find a way to pitch better, they have a chance of winning. He does a good job of explaining the details to a mass audience though, and he also proposes a trade possibility that not too many have explored yet: Mariners pitching prospect Danny Hultzen.

Hultzen was the second overall pick in the 2011 draft after spending three years at the University of Virginia. He is often thought of as a very polished pitcher who, if not for a poor stretch in AAA, may have made his MLB debut in 2012 at the tail end of his first professional season. Some compare him to Cliff Lee, though it’s not clear that Hultzen has ace-level stuff at this point.

During his first professional season, Hultzen had a Jekyl and Hyde type performance. In AA, he pitched like a person deserving of the second overall pick. In 13 starts he went 8-3 with a 1.19 ERA, 79 strikeouts, 32 walks, 38 hits, and just two homeruns allowed in 75.1 innings. Simply put, he was incredible … for 13 starts in AA. In AAA, the wheels came off, and though the statistics point to how the wheels came off, why they came off is unknown to me. Lauded for his command, Hultzen started walking everyone under the sun. In 12 starts in AAA, he walked 43 hitters in 48.2 innings. His ERA was 5.92, though that wasn’t helped by a .351 BABIP. His FIP was a more respectable 4.29, but still not something a team wants to see from a potential ace.

Personally, I think the stint in AAA was a fluke. Hultzen’s FIP and his crazy high walk rate make me think he will rebound in 2013. Maybe he won’t put up the insane numbers he did in AA, but that’s bound to be the case as he faces tougher competition. I also think he’ll be ready for the big leagues very early in 2013, maybe May or June. And honestly, he’ll be ready to crack a terrible rotation like the Royals’ to start the season.

With all that in mind, the question becomes should the Royals attempt to trade for Hultzen? Schoenfield seems to think so, as do others. The offsetting weaknesses and strengths of the Mariners and Royals seems to make them natural trading partners. I must say that I’d love to have Hultzen pitching for the Royals in 2013. The sticking point? The price.

Schoenfield and others forward the name Billy Butler as the price for Hultzen. That is, of course, ridiculous. Hultzen hasn’t thrown a major league pitch, and Billy Butler is an All Star and maybe one of the 10-15 best hitters in the league. That means the Mariners would either need to throw in more or be willing to take less. They could throw in Erasmo Ramirez or Taijuan Walker, but I doubt they’d be willing to give up two high-end pitching prospects. Another possibility is James Paxton, a lesser prospect who still has some potential.

Really, the value swap of prospects is the roadblock to a trade between the Mariners and Royals. Butler is too valuable to trade for Hultzen or any of their pitching prospects straight up. But the Royals don’t really have any other hitters who are major league ready who they can live without (except maybe one). They could trade Wil Myers for Hutzlen, essentially straight up, but then the Royals are left with this gaping hole in right field (this hole has a name, Jeff Francoeur). Alex Gordon is too valuable. Eric Hosmer has too much potential.

The one hitter who might satisfy this imbalance is Mike Moustakas. It hurts me to say it because I love Moose, but he’s just good enough to be valuable to the Mariners and just not good enough to force them to give up two major prospects. The Royals would struggle to find a replacement, but Irving Falu or Tony Abreu or both might be able to fill that gap. If all else fails, they could try to sign a serviceable third baseman and hope that the pitching upgrade makes up for the loss of Moustakas.

Really, there aren’t any great answers. The Royals need pitching and in order to get it, they have to weaken their offense (in a trade scenario anyway). Hultzen is a good target for them, and the Mariners are a good trading partner. But there are as many impediments as there are reasons to get a deal done.

In 2011, Escobar hit: .254/.290/.343/.633. He also had 73 SO, 25 BB, stole 25 bases and was caught 9 times.

In 2012, Escobar hit: .293/.331/.390/.721. This was coupled with 100 SO, 27 BB and 35 stolen bases while being caught only 5 times.

I don’t consider myself a player-analysis guru. Far from it, in fact. I originally thought that Escobar’s improvement must have come from a increased amount of patience at the plate. However, I don’t know that that’s true. Escobar only walked 2 more times in 2012. I generally look and see if there was a significant change on the kinds of counts a player swung on throughout the season.

Alcides’ “first-pitch swinging” percentage went up from 24% in 2011 to 25% in 2012. His “swinging-strike percentage” went up as well from 12% to 14%. I don’t know if these are stats that are big factors or what the league average of such statistics is, but I expected to see significant change in these advanced statistics and others, and I”m not seeing much of a bump.

One reason for the uptick in production probably has something to do with Alcides’ somewhat inflated BABIP of .344. The traditional idea is that a BABIP should average out around .300. Escobar’s BABIP from 2011 was .285, so, if you believe in sabermetrics, it’s reasonable to imagine that Esky’s production should be expected to fall somewhere near the median of the 2011 and 2012 seasons.

Even if that’s so, and Escobar hits somewhere in the “.270″ area, his ability to steal bases has shown growth and that makes him even more of a danger. Stealing 10 more bases in 2012 while getting caught 4 FEWER times is nothing to sniff at.

Escobar has shown an increased ability to steal bases. Or Yost just sent him more in 2012. You make the call. (John Rieger-US PRESSWIRE)

In my opinion, Escobar’s ability to swing the lumber and become an offensive threat is merely gravy upon the meat and potatoes of my estimation of him as a player.

Escobar has great range and is capable of making highlight-reel plays. He is, in my opinion, one of the best defensive shortstops in the A.L., if not baseball. He made a few more errors in 2012 than he did in 2011, but his incredible ability to get to the baseball makes up for that slight bump.

And if he is somehow able to maintain this sudden outburst of offensive prowess?

It’s gravy, Baby. Gravy.

Jul 4, 2012; Toronto, ON, Canada; Kansas City Royals infielder Irving Falu (19) looks on against the Toronto Blue Jays at the Rogers Centre. The Blue Jays beat the Royals 4-1. Mandatory Credit: Tom Szczerbowski-US PRESSWIRE

I know many of us are concerned with how the Royals’ starting rotation will look in 2013. It’s the most important issue, and if they acquired no position players and only starting pitching this offseason, most would call that wise, including me probably.

But that doesn’t mean this team has no holes in the lineup. It does. So, instead of giving you another starting pitching post, I’ve decided to talk about a position that concerns me moving into 2013 (actually two positions concern me, but my concern for right field is simply an understanding that Jeff Francoeur is terrible and holding a place for Wil Myers).

I’m a little concerned with how the second base situation will work out. Mike Vamosi recently wrote that he feels the Royals will continue to give Chris Getz opportunities at second base, not because Vamosi feels he deserves it but because Getz is beloved by Ned Yost and Dayton Moore. I think a fairly solid argument that Getz DOES NOT deserve to hold a position by himself exists. He’s a lifetime .257/.314/.316 hitter and even in his “bounce back” year last season, he only hit .275/.312/.360. He does have a decent glove at second base, but nothing that makes up for his very weak bat.

So, let’s look instead at the candidates who could potentially contribute. We know Getz can’t, or at least should only be used to platoon; that’s been proven. Johnny Giavotella was supposed to be the guy who unseated Getz, who brought offense to the second base position. That, of course, has not materialized, and I’m almost ready to write him off completely. Because if Giavotella can’t hit, he can’t play. He’s had 376 PA in the major leagues for a slash line of .242/.271/.340. That is nowhere near close to acceptable. He strikes out way too much, doesn’t walk enough, and if you watched him play at all looks overmatched by big league breaking stuff. So, as of right now, I’m not pulling for Johnny anymore.

I am, however, pulling for everyone’s favorite 29-year-old rookie, Irving Falu. This guy can play. Sabermatricians will hate him because he relies on a high BABIP to be successful. In 21 big league games last season (91 PA), he hit .341/.371/.435 with a .382 BABIP. He rarely walks, but he doesn’t strike out that often either. He puts a lot of balls in play, but in those 21 games, he had a 34.7 percent line drive rate. That means he was hitting a lot of line drives. It’s a small sample size, but I would love to see him get a chance in Spring Training to both make the club and see significant time at second base.

Tony Abreu also received some time at second base late in the season, but to me, he’s just a poor man’s Falu. He walks less and strikes out more. He also relies on a high BABIP, but even more so than Falu. In AAA last year, AAA mind you, he walked 3.1 percent of the time and struck out 15.2 percent of the time. That’s incredible. What’s even more incredible is that he did it while hitting .322. His BABIP was .365. In his major league time, he was considerably less effective with a BABIP of .298 and a batting average of just .257.

Right now, I’m thinking the answer is probably a platoon, Getz against righties and Falu against lefties (that is if Falu doesn’t win the starting job outright in Spring Training). Falu’s a switch hitter, but in a very small sample size against lefties last year he hit .385. Getz has, over his career, hit better against lefties, but that’s probably because he has around 800 more plate appearances against righties and only 288 against lefties in his whole career. Clearly, managers attempt to protect Getz against lefties.

Honestly, I’m not thrilled with the situation. I don’t want Getz playing at all, and though I like Falu and think he would make a fine utility infielder, I’m not sold on his ability to hit consistently with his inability to walk. He could certainly have success, and I really want him to. Vladimir Guerrero made a career off the approach Falu has, though he had much more power. If he can keep putting balls in play hard, he should take the starting job and keep it. If he can’t, the Royals will need to figure something out. Either a serviceable platoon situation or bringing someone in who can do the job.

It will be a subplot of Spring Training to follow, and a source of great anger in me if Falu is not even given consideration for a starting job at second base so that Yost can continue his love affair with the continually disappointing Getz.

The Tampa Bay Rays are a team that have been connected with the Royals as possible player-swap partners. There’s a wealth of pitching talent in the southeast and it’s been postulated that the Royals could afford to give up a bat which said Rays have indicated they’re in need of.

I’ve been thinking a lot regarding how I would feel about shipping Billy Butler somewhere. I love Billy. He’s a great hitter and he’s a long-standing statesmen on this team, but he’s also a designated hitter that doesn’t really have the ability to excel at any other position. This makes it easier for me to see us parting with him. But that fact also lessens his value to other teams, particularly of the N.L. persuasion.

You can sit there deciding the happy medium where the Royals can give up something valuable but gain something valuable in return, or you can completely ignore it and resign yourself to heartache.

I generally am pretty intimate with resignation, but find it increasingly hard to be so when prestigious sports magazines comment on trade possibilities for Kansas City. That happened in this week’s copy of Sports Illustrated Magazine. A cousin of mine asked me if I’d read the article about the Royals getting David Price. I assured him I hadn’t and proceeded to do so.

It was one of those “5 Deals That Should Happen” type of lists and the #1 deal was David Price for Alex Gordon, Johnny Giovatella, and Mike Montgomery.

Are you kidding me? I think you pull the trigger on that deal in a heartbeat.

Gordo is one of my favorite Royals, but considering management’s refusal to utilize Giovatella, Montgomery’s struggles, and the Royals desperate need for an ace , I think this is a no-brainer.

Now, obviously this is just some sportswriter’s analysis of what HE thinks would be a good deal for both teams. I believe the likelihood of this happening is embarrassingly low. That being said, apparently one writer finds it worthwhile enough to list it in Sports Illustrated.

I know better than to be hopeful. The off-season is a time for wild possibilities. I honestly don’t think the proposed situation would be a good deal for the Rays.

What do you think about that idea? Would you put your stamp of approval on that trade for the sake of acquiring David Price?

That’s why I’m interested in what fans have to say about Hosmer after the season he’s had this year. Here’s a link to a year-old article about Hosmer’s extension candidacy. Look at the first comment. It’s crazy how a year can change things, huh?

During last year’s offseason, we here at Kings Of Kauffman wrote various articles about ways the Royals could attempt to entice Hosmer to sign an extension and attempt to buy out years of Hosmer’s arbitration and maybe a year or two of free-agency. Now, it remains to be seen whether Hosmer’s sophomore slump is a fluke or a sign of things to come.

Looking at Hosmer’s slash line runs the risk of melting your face a la “Raiders of the Last Ark,” but I’m willing to do it anyways.

.232/.304/.359/.663

I’m still able to draw a few positives from his season. He took more walks this season. He took 56 walks this year compared to 34 last year. And it wasn’t like that stat is swollen based on more plate appearances this season. He only had 35 more PA’s in 2012 than he did in 2011.

His BABIP was also significantly lower in 2012 (.255) as opposed to 2011 (.314). Using that .300 benchmark that most individuals like to use for an average BABIP, it seems safe to say that Hosmer could be due for a bit of a bounce-back.

I hope this happens because honestly, I think I’ve finally come to the conclusion that it’s unlikely that Hosmer will sign an extension with the Royals. He’s a Boras client with huge, if somewhat tarnished, potential and as we don’t and likely never will have the monetary capacity to retain Hosmer’s services in the long-term, I’m fairly sure he will migrate to a wealthier climate when his indentured servitude is complete.

Now, if the Royals somehow prove that they have some remote shot at contending between now and his release date, I think it’s possible that we may have more of a shot at keeping him around. He has seemed to jell with his teammates and winning makes everyone happy.

Either way, I want Eric Hosmer to make paper.

If the Royals actually make good on their promises of contention in the short-term, it will raise the possibility that Hosmer will want to post up in Kansas City for the long-term. I’m betting that if the Royals are successful next year, it will be partly a result of Hosmer having a comeback year.

However, I’m okay with the other scenario as well. Hosmer could turn things around and make it clear that he has no intention of sticking around, regardless of the Royals’ success or lack thereof. If this happens, it will mean that (hopefully) the Royals will be able to spin Hosmer for a wealth of talent.

So, in my mind, Hosmer making  money will be a win-win situation. It means that he broke out of this crummy slump. Whether it’s a (reasonable) amount of dough coming from us in the form of an extension or whether it comes from another team that we trade him to in the next few years, I think I’ll be at peace.

Unless we trade him for a Jermaine Dye-like return.

Then….there will be no peace in this heart.

I’d like to look more closely at Odorizzi because he is right on the cusp of not only being in the major leagues but reaching his potential as well, which is limited but not unimpressive.

July 8, 2012; Kansas City, MO, USA; USA pitcher Jake Odorizzi follows through with a pitch during the first inning of the 2012 All Star Futures Game at Kauffman Stadium. Mandatory Credit: H. Darr Beiser-USA TODAY Sports via US PRESSWIRE

Let us begin with his very, very brief stint with the big league club last year. During that time, he pitched seven innings, gave up four earned runs, allowed eight hits, four walks, and struck out four. Not much to be learned from those numbers, but if you remember, he had some control issues and gave up a few hits. But let’s say the extremely limited sample size doesn’t allow us to take anything significant from the statistical data itself.

To find substantial data, I dug into his minor league numbers. They were pretty good if somewhat misleading. His AAA ERA, 2.93, looks great, but if you probe a little deeper you see a 4.19 FIP. You also see a pretty high BB/9 rate, 3.35 and a high LOB% as well 81.3 percent. The worry I had for Odorizzi last year was his high number of hits and walks allowed. Essentially, he was allowing runners on base and then getting out of tough jams. It’s good he was getting out of jams; it’s not good that hitters were reaching base so much.

His H/9 to me hint at a point of concern, a question really. Does Odorizzi miss enough bats? It’s been stated that he doesn’t have electric stuff, and that’s all that’s going to keep him from being a true ace. In the majors an inability to miss bats, relegates a pitcher to 4-5 starter range, and the Royals really don’t need anymore 4-5 starters. In his two starts at the end of the season, Odorizzi induced a swinging strike 6.6 percent of the time (small sample size I know). For comparison, Duffy induced a swinging strike 9.3 percent of the time last year. Justin Verlander has done so at a 9.8 percent clip over his career. Odorizzi’s looks low compared to those two, but keep in mind it was his first stint in the majors and the sample size is small. In Duffy’s first season, he got swinging strikes only 7.7 percent of the time.

Odorizzi has this pattern, you see. He gets a taste of a level, struggles on that level, and then comes back and dominates the next season. At least, that’s what he did with AA (I don’t know if you can call it a pattern if it only happened once). He struggled at Northwest Arkansas in his last seven starts of 2011, came back in 2012 and destroyed Texas League hitters to the tune of 11.13 K/9 and a 2.20 FIP. That’s incredible, especially considering the league.

I think Odorizzi will end up back in AAA. What I’m looking for is his bounce back. I’m looking to see if some of the problems that were covered up in AAA last season will be resolved this season. Will he get his strikeout rate back up (it dipped to 7.38 K/9 at AAA)? Will he get his walks and hits allowed down? This should allow him to fix one of his other problems from AAA last year, short outings. He had so many people on base, his pitch counts sored, and he often didn’t make it past five innings.

If Odorizzi starts hot in Omaha, I’d love to see him get a chance in late May or early June. He’s a smart, poised young pitcher. A little refinement, and the Royals could have the first two pieces of their in-house pitching solution in place (Duffy and Odorizzi).

Luke Hochevar Is Affirmed As A Significant Contributor To The Starting Rotation

• This issue has been infinitesimally discussed and rehashed as the season came to a close. Luke Hochevar is a bad starting pitcher. His inconsistency is stroke-inducing. He’s worn out his welcome. It’s understandable that the organization may not want to acknowledge the egg on their face. They may not want to admit to a failed #1 overall draft pick. But it’s better to acknowledge a mistake than to continue to throw a guy out there and continually tell a burnt-out fan base that he’s just about to “turn the corner” or “figure everything out.” Pull the plug, stick a fork in him, whatever cliche you like best…Luke Hochevar should not be a significant part of the rotation going forward.

Frenchy Reigns Supreme

• Jeff Francoeur is a great teammate. A great clubhouse some guy. But there is absolutely no reason that he should be the Royals starting right-fielder next year. The job should be Wil Myers’. If Francoeur is still the starter by mid-April, the organization has some explaining to do. I don’t think Myers has anything else to prove. We still owe Francoeur a significant amount of money for this next year, but that’s no excuse to keep Myers tethered in the minor leagues when he is an offensive (and possibly even defensive) upgrade.

It’s Announced That Danny Duffy and Felipe Paulino’s Rehabilitation Will Take Longer Than Anticipated

• Tommy John surgery hurt the Royals last year and when this season rolls around, we will still be feeling the after-effects. That means that there needs to be absolutely NO hiccups in the recuperation of Danny Duffy and Felipe Paulino. Duffy was impressive last year before he got hurt and Paulino has been quietly steady in his production during his time as a Royal. Dayton Moore’s recent comments about how we can’t build our team through free agency makes the recovery of these two pitchers even more important in my opinion.

These are just a few scenarios I think could railroad the Royals’ before the season even starts. Happy thoughts, I know. However, we snagged Santana today via a reasonable move. I suppose it’s good that Dayton is sticking with his “strike quickly” mentality. We’ll have to see what else happens.

The Royals were underwhelming throughout the 2012 season. After a heart-breaking losing streak early in the year that completely deflated the already laughable “Our Time” moniker, I suspected that these Royals were, in all likelihood, going to shoot far below the expectations that had been placed on them before the season started. Part of that was the unrealistic belief that many Royals fans had about the team and the “weak” division, but this team seems to struggle even meeting fans in the middle. They didn’t have the pitching from the get-go and were soon crippled by injury and sub-par performances by expected breakout stars.

There were bright spots. Sal Perez made his contract look like an absolute steal for the organization and the bullpen had another solid year overall, but aside from looking vaguely threatening as we approached the All-Star Break just before getting swept by the Tigers and spiraling once again, we were disappointing.

Fast-forward to football season and I was hearing the same pre-season hopes regarding the Chiefs. They were a team with a lot of young talent that seemed poised for a breakout year. They were in what was considered a weak division and looked like they had a great shot to win the A.F.C. West.

Then they remembered that they’re a Kansas City sports team. They are so bad they are making the headaches of the Royals’ season look desirable.

I hate whining sports fans, so I’m trying to avoid that, but good grief, what do I have to do to get a successful franchise to root for? The Royals are bad, the Chiefs are bad, Mizzou football is dashing my hopes of at least being passable in its S.E.C. debut. (Laughable mementos like THIS don’t help any.)

I’m not a soccer fan, so I don’t really feel qualified to rejoice in the success of the Sporting.

That leaves Mizzou basketball.* My one last hope at glory. I think if they struggle, I may go off the deep end. I don’t believe it’s too much to ask that one of my teams actually have a successful season.

*Cue Michael Engel arguing that I should be a Jayhawk fan……..Cringe.

I’m desperately clinging to the hope that the basketball Tigers can carry my sanity for this sports year and I’m adamantly hoping that Dayton Moore and David Glass deliver on these promises, half-promises, and/or somewhat retracted promises that they’re spouting.

I, like many people I’m sure, am sick of my teams being consistently bad. Something’s got to change and if there aren’t some fairly drastic things happening during the Royals offseason, it looks like we’re in for more of the same.

August 19, 2012; Kansas City, MO, USA; Kansas City Royals pitcher Jeremy Guthrie (33) reacts in the dugout against the Chicago White Sox at Kauffman Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Peter G. Aiken-US PRESSWIRE

I’m not sure I really understand this. Jeremy Guthrie was the Royals’ best starting pitcher after joining the team in July. The Royals gave him a chance to right the sinking ship that was his career. He did it, and he was thankful for the opportunity. So thankful, he expressed his willingness to negotiate a contract extension as soon as possible. This was during the season.

What was the Royals’ response? We’ll wait.

Excuse me? Why? What is to be gained from waiting? It’s safe to say that among the most important goals the Royals should be reaching for is the re-signing of Guthrie. It’s the general consensus among Royals talking heads (myself included) that the Royals will need to find at least two starting pitchers who can range from 2-3 in the rotation to be competitive. This formula, though, is predicated on the re-signing of Guthrie. If the Royals cannot re-sign Guthrie, they need three new starting pitchers of 2-3 quality.

Finding two quality starting pitchers is hard enough. Finding three in one offseason is bordering on impossible, especially when considering the current state of Royals pitching prospects. Kansas City has players with plenty of potential: Jake Odorizzi, Yordano Ventura, Kyle Zimmer, Kyle Smith (who people sell short for some reason), John Lamb. But none of these players is Opening Day 2013 ready. Most are 2014-2015 prospects, which means none of them will be stepping up to fill the void for next season.

And really, you can’t have enough starting pitching anyway. Even if one or two of these prospects were ready to take the ball in April, the Royals should still be talking to Guthrie yesterday. My favorite theory of pitching development is to have as many quality pitchers as possible, have them compete for spots which makes them better, and then when someone inevitably gets hurt, the pitching staff can maintain. Bonus: the extra quality pitchers are trade commodities. This idea that one pitcher might block another is, as Joe Biden would put it, malarkey.

My fear is that the Royals missed a golden opportunity with Guthrie. By talking to him in September and making it clear they want him around, they could have squelched the pull of free agency, the pull to have teams bid for him. Certainly, they can overpay for him once free agency starts, but that type of short sightedness doesn’t help small-market teams. By talking early, they held the potential to keep his agent form putting feelers out and seeing what market demand might be, or at the very least, the gesture shows the level of support the Royals were willing to provide.

Every day a deal doesn’t get done, the pull of free agency grows. Other teams saw his turn around after being traded from Colorado. They know he can pitch under the right conditions, and other teams are more willing to utilize statistical analysis to understand just what they can get and should be willing to offer Guthrie.

So, I return to my question: Why didn’t the Royals start talking contract extension with Guthrie in September? Did they want to see him start one or two more games? If that’s the case, it’s ridiculous. One or two more starts won’t tell a team much about a pitcher. I’m thinking, as I puzzle over this question that truly confuses me, that maybe it’s a case of paralysis by analysis. Maybe the Royals front office was afraid of the downside of signing Guthrie and that froze them into passivity.

Small-market teams cannot be deliberate. They cannot wait and see. Some people criticize Dayton Moore for the quick moves he makes in free agency. I don’t mind this strategy. I don’t think it’s always the best, but I like the idea that he has a strategy that attempts to level the economic playing field. He needs to turn that strategy to Guthrie, to sign him before free agency opens, as soon as possible in fact. If he’s reading this, and I’m sure he is, he needs to stop and call Guthrie’s agent immediately, even before writing a snazzy comment about how awesome my idea is.

Sept. 16, 2012; Bronx, NY, USA; Tampa Bay Rays starting pitcher Matt Moore (55) pitches against the New York Yankees during the second inning at Yankee Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Debby Wong-US PRESSWIRE

Pitching, pitching, the Royals need starting pitching! Anyone who takes the time to read this blog, knows that. Anyone who saw the Royals play last year knows that. But the hard reality is everyone needs starting pitching. It’s the most precious commodity in baseball.

Terrific Royals blogger Rany Jazayerli recently wrote on his desire for the Royals to think outside the box a little in an attempt to obtain Dan Haren. I agree with Jazayerli that this should be the first option that Dayton Moore considers for acquiring a 1-2 starter (Haren’s actually a 2, but a 2 looks like a 1 when all you have is a stable full of 4-5).

Will the Royals execute this plan to obtain Haren? I doubt it. I have no evidence to support this doubt, other than experience watching the Royals’ very inside the box thinking when it comes to roster development.

So, instead, let us look at the tough choices the Royals may choose to make instead. I will focus my attention on one pitcher, but we can assume that this scenario, or one similar to it, could play out with any pitcher the Royals want. I will focus on Matt Moore.

Why Matt Moore? For many reasons. 1) Tampa Bay has a wealth of starting pitching, more than they actually need. 2) Tampa Bay needs hitting, desperately. 3) Both Tampa and Kansas City’s best chances at getting a decent player is through trade. This isn’t a steadfast truth, but it makes sense as a general principle of small market teams.

Also, I like Moore. He’s young, 23, under team control until 2019 (signed through 2016 with team options for 2017-19), and good with the potential to get even better. In 2012, he made 31 starts, had a 3.81 ERA, and had 8.8 K/9. But, he’s not so good that he’s un-gettable, which also means that at 23, he’s got room to improve. He had a 1.35 WHIP and 4.11 BB/9. His xFIP was 4.35, which puts him near the same boat as Bruce Chen last season.

I’m sure the Rays know how good Moore is, certainly better than I do and probably much better than the Royals do. But they also know where they’re weak. They were 18^th in runs scored, 20^th in SLG, and 27^th in batting average in 2012. To compete in the AL East, the Rays must know that they need to score more runs. Their DH spot was 13^thout of 14 AL teams in OPS at just .684. The slash line for their DH position was .229/.288/.396. That’s terrible for a position that is designated just for hitting (I know cuz it’s in the position’s title).

September 27, 2012; Detroit, MI, USA; Kansas City Royals designated hitter Billy Butler (16) hits a home run during the ninth inning against the Detroit Tigers at Comerica Park. Mandatory Credit: Rick Osentoski-US PRESSWIRE

Enter Billy Butler. I know; it hurts me just to think it. But in tough times, and these are tough times for the Royals in terms of starting pitching, tough decisions must be made. Let me state first that I love Billy. I think he is underrated and easily the best hitter in the Royals’ lineup. That’s the thing, he’s very good, and in order to get someone who is good, the Royals will probably have to give up someone who is good. Imagine what the Rays could do with a DH hitting .313/.373/.510 with 29 home runs and 107 RBI.

The question, for the Royals, should really revolve around if they can afford to lose Butler. Can they make up for his production if they trade him? The answer is maybe. If Eric Hosmer bounces back from his abysmal 2012, and the Royals remove heads from rectums on Wil Myers place in the organization by giving him a starting spot out of spring training, they could make up for Butler’s production, at least a little. Add to those the continued progression of Mike Moustakas and Salvador Perez, and the offensive production for the Royals looks fairly decent.

Who would take over at DH? That’s a good question. I think, for now, the best option would be a situational rotation. Since the Royals won’t be able to dump Jeff Francoeur, they could bat him against lefties and Clint Robinson against righties. I like that plan a little.

There is one caveat to this plan (besides the obvious that it is equal parts pipe dream and shroom fueled delusion): Butler alone is not enough to get Moore. That seems crazy when considering how productive and still young Butler is. But Butler really only has value as a DH, and his contract isn’t nearly as team friendly as Moore’s, though it is still team friendly. I tossed out this question to my brother to help me consider who, on top of Butler, the Royals might have to give up if the Rays were willing to trade Moore. Here are some names we came up with: Yordano Ventura, Jake Odorizzi, Louis Coleman, Aaron Crow, Tim Collins, Kelvin Herrera, basically anyone in the bullpen.

I would be ok with the Royals giving up Butler and any of the names above. It would sting to lose any of them, not to mention the punch to the gut of losing Butler, but to change I’m a big believer in the idea that if you always do what you always did you always get what you always got. Butler is a valuable to both the Royals and the Rays. If the Rays are even willing to talk about Moore, or if another team is willing to talk about a Moore-like pitcher (that’s young and a #2 starter with more upside), the Royals need to be willing to part with Butler to get him.

Note: Robbie at Rays Colored Glasses wrote a response to this piece, proclaiming that Moore is going nowhere.

“Mooses?” (more…)

It was hard this time finding out that the 2012 Royals were consistent losers. My question was Is there anything in the win-loss statistics that might provide insight into what the Royals might fix moving forward? A statistical anomaly that might explain why they lost more than I had hoped for and expected?

September 20, 2012; Kansas City, MO, USA; Kansas City Royals fans show their support as the team celebrates after the game against the Chicago White Sox at Kauffman Stadium. The Royals won the game 4-3. Mandatory Credit: Denny Medley-US PRESSWIRE

The answer? No there is not. It turns out the Royals were pretty much just losers across the board. They had a pretty even home-road split. They had a pretty even first half-second half split. I thought maybe in one-run games, but their numbers in one-run games are actually much better than their overall record (27-26). They didn’t get blown out much more than their overall record would indicate. They just lost a lot of three to four-run games.

Their win-loss numbers inside the division aren’t overly interesting. They had a good year against Chicago, a bad year against Minnesota, and everything else was pretty much expected—two games up on Cleveland and destroyed by Detroit. Overall, they were 34-38 in the division—not surprising and fairly boring.

I did learn that the Royals played a pretty tough schedule outside their division. Of their 18 opponents, 11 finished with records .500 or over, with Cleveland and Minnesota being two of the seven that didn’t. Against those winning teams, the Royals were 47-50, a pretty respectable record considering how bad the overall record was.

The one statistically interesting thing I found was how terrible the Royals win-loss record was against losing teams. Against losing teams, teams with records below .500, they were 25-40. That’s pretty bad, and much of that comes from the horrific years against Minnesota and Seattle. Combined the Royals were 8-18 against those two teams. That’s just sad. I think the Washington Generals could do better … at baseball I mean.

If you listen to the sabrmatricians, which more people should, they’ll tell you that win-loss records aren’t a great indicator of anything other than how many games a team won and lost. To a degree, they’re right. But what the win-loss records can do, sometimes, is show people big patterns about a team’s ability to win and lose. If they lose a lot of one-run games, a fan base might know that it’s a late inning problem or that those loses are a statistical oddity that might shake out the following year. If a team has an incredible win-loss in September, that says something as well, usually that they’re facing minor leaguers who will be selling insurance before too long.

The win-loss records from the Royals are somewhat enlightening if not encouraging. They say that the 2012 Royals were consistent losers with no statistical oddity (in terms of win-loss only) that points to an easily found culprit. Of course, we can point to starting pitching and management and timely hitting or whatever, and those might be the answer. But the answer to my question is simply that the Royals of 2012 were consistently terrible, not up and down terrible, but reliable in their losing.

It doesn’t seem all that long ago that I drove my ‘69 GTO to the stadium in the summer of 1977 and climbed the steps to the high altitude seats at the far reaches of the upper deck – not because I couldn’t afford a better view, but because all the other seats were taken.  Other than Arrowhead Stadium, I’ve never felt more energy and passion in a fan group than I did back in the team’s heyday.  Everybody wanted to go to the Royals games, they were the hottest tickets in town.

Kauffman Stadium, the most wonderful place on earth to watch a baseball game.

Kauffman Stadium, originally called Royals Stadium, was built in the early 70’s when most cities were constructing butt-ugly cookie-cutter, multi-use stadiums.  There are few things worse than playing baseball on a football field, or football on a baseball field.  The twin sports gems in Kansas City were each built to house one sport, and one team, making us the envy of the sports world when they opened.  The beautiful sight lines with every seat facing second base, the one-of-a-kind fountains, the dramatic centerfield scoreboard, the convenient highway intersection location – Kauffman offered many cutting-edge features long before anyone ever dreamed of adding the Little K, the Hall of Fame, the Buck O’Neill legacy seat, the carnival beyond the outfield, and the one-time largest High Def LCD screen in the world.

Have you ever visited a baseball stadium in another city?  Have you been to Wrigley, Tiger Stadium, Minute Maid Park, Yankee Stadium to name a few?  If you have, you’ll notice Kauffman offers one enormously important critical advantage over all of them – parking.  It’s something we take for granted in Kansas City.  In most other cities, you must take the bus, or drive in circles before each game seeking out the gangsta-looking guys standing in their front yards with a “Park Here $20” sign.  And good luck trying to leave early with cars jammed bumper to bumper and side to side, 5 cars deep on the grass.  I’m serious, you have to wait until everyone parking in front of you leaves before you can drive away.  Why anyone would build a stadium in a location without sufficient parking, I’ll never understand.

And here’s another Kauffman advantage: Tiger Stadium has great sausages, Camden Yards has crab cakes (yuck!), Ahi Tuna at AT&T Park in San Francisco (yuck again!), and the Great American Ballpark in Cincinnati has fried cinnamon rolled doughnuts topped with warm caramel.  But do you know what Kauffman Stadium has?  The most perfect mid-summer baseball game snack ever invented – no, not peanuts (although that’s a fantastic option too), but delicious, icy, chocolate frosty malts.  Hard to believe, but few if any other stadiums offer this tasty treat.

And there is history that still rings in this hallowed place.  Of all the key moments in the stadium’s past, October 27, 1985 stands alone as the most important date and the most glorious game ever played at Kauffman.  The Royals pounded the hapless St. Louis Cardinals 11-0.  George Brett went 4 for 5.  The Cards used 7 pitchers, the Royals needed only one – Cy Young winner Bret Saberhagen.  41,658 crazed fans watched the Royals wrap up their one and only world championship on a Fall Classic perfect 62 degree evening.  The smell of cotton candy was in the air, the fountains splashed, the Crown scoreboard flashed, the eyes of the entire sports universe were trained on Kansas City –  and never again has a meaningful game been played at Kauffman in the month of October.

When I drive past the intersection of I-435 & I-70 in October I can actually envision the crowds, the television satellite trucks in the parking lot, the blimp overhead, and the beautiful, awe-inspiring roar of the fanatical KC crowd.  Every year I tell myself – maybe next year.  Maybe in 2013 or 2014 we’ll get to play meaningful games in October.  Maybe the young fans of Kansas City will have a chance to experience the rapture of playoff games.  Maybe our beautiful, timeless baseball field with the Hall of Fame former groundskeeper, the frosty malts, the gargantuan HD scoreboard, world class parking, and the $250 Million facelift will see another October moon shine down from a cloudless night sky.  Someday.   One thing is for sure – Kauffman Stadium deserves better.