Alcides Escobar – Shortstop

Alcides Escobar is a coin flip to represent the Royals in the All-Star Game. Peter G. Aiken-US PRESSWIRE

 The Case For: Don’t look now, but Alcides Escobar is currently hitting .316 and sporting a .355 on-base percentage. Those numbers place him first and third among American League shortstops, respectively. He ranks third with his .779 OPS, second with 19 doubles, and third with 12 stolen bases. He batted .349 in June with a .477 slugging percentage. In short, he’s been raking.

 And all this comes from a guy who was brought to the Royals in the Zack Greinke trade as a defensive specialist with a lot to learn on offense. Well, Escobar has learned all right. His confidence at the plate is palpable, and this incarnation of Escobar in no way resembles the timid, distrusting batter we saw at the beginning of the 2011 season.

 And Escobar never stopped being an elite defender. He possesses excellent range, and despite a somewhat pedestrian fielding percentage, he currently ranks second among AL shortstops with 128 putouts and is tied for third with 53 double plays. He also has been regularly featured on Sportscenter’s Top Plays, which is about as impactful for his chances of making the All-Star team as every statistic I’ve cited in the previous two paragraphs combined.

 The Case Against: I don’t feel entirely comfortable nit-picking Escobar since he has been so fantastic this year. The only quibble I can summon is that Escobar lacks power, having hit only two home runs on the season.

 Also, since the less productive Derek Jeter is a lock to make the team, Escobar could get squeezed behind a power bat like Asdrubal Cabrera or, gulp, a nepotistic selection such as Ron Washington’s own Elvis Andrus.

 The bottom line is that Escobar deserves the honor. He can only hope that politics don’t interfere with the correct decision.

 Odds of Making Team: 51%. If you’ll notice, the combined percentage odds I’ve divvied out to these three players total out to 126%. That figure reflects my 26% certainty that the Royals will get a second All-Star selection for the first time since Mike Sweeney and Mike MacDougal were honored in 2003.

 My Pick: He’s tentatively in, although I wouldn’t be surprised to see him get shafted by Ron Washington.

Mike Moustakas – Third Baseman

2012 isn't likely the year for Mike Moustakas to represent the Royals at the All-Star game. Peter G. Aiken-US PRESSWIRE

The Case For: Moustakas ranks 3^rd among American League third basemen with an .803 OPS, 3^rd in homers with 13, and 4^th in doubles with his 17. He has also displayed surprisingly world class defense at third base. Moustakas leads all AL third basemen with 23 double plays started, which is seven more than pursuers Brett Lawrie and Miguel Cabrera. He also ranks second in assists and second in fielding percentage. By almost any metric, he has been an elite defender this season.

On top of his league rankings, Moustakas has arguably been the best all-round Royal this season. He currently sits second on the team in home runs, RBI, and OPS, and is third on the team with 17 doubles.

Adrian Beltre and Miguel Cabrera seem like locks at this point. But Moustakas has a legitimate case to make this team as the back-up to the back-up third baseman.

The Case Against: Moustakas’ mid-.260’s batting average doesn’t jump off the page. Furthermore, as good as his defense has been, ultimately the reality is that the All-Star game is more about offense than defense. The guys with impressive counting numbers are more likely to get the nod. And offensively, it would be difficult to argue that Moustakas deserves to make the team over teammate Billy Butler.

He is young and still improving, and will no doubt get his opportunity to play on the big stage in his blossoming career. But for guys who are neck and neck in quality like Butler and Moustakas, the player with the longer track record of success should get the nod.  Butler simply deserves to be recognized as the best player on the Royals. Moustakas’ best chance would be if the Royals garner two roster spots.

Odds of Making Team: 10%

My Pick: Moustakas will make plenty of All-Star teams, but it’s not going to happen in 2012.

Billy Butler – Designated Hitter

Billy Butler might be swinging for the fences in the home run derby next week. Jesse Johnson-US PRESSWIRE

The Case For: Butler leads the Royals in home runs, runs batted in, on-base percentage, slugging, and OPS. Oh, and he’s currently second on the team in batting average. He’s been the most consistent Royal for several years now, and is coming into his own as bona fide superstar. We’re roughly halfway through the season, and Butler is on pace to shatter his career highs in home runs and slugging percentage.

As much as I hate to jinx Butler’s power surge through the season’s first half, I nonetheless feel compelled to mention that Billy (16 HR’s through 76 games) has made himself into a legitimate threat to surpass Steve Balboni’s infamously embarrassing club home run record of 38.

Plus, Butler owns the third best OPS among qualifying designated hitters, trailing only Boston’s David Ortiz and Toronto’s Edwin Encarnacion. Chicago’s Adam Dunn is running neck and neck with Butler, but he has several teammates (Paul Konerko, Chris Sale, Alex Rios come to mind) at least as deserving of a spot. Because every team needs to represented, the quota on White Sox all-star candidates probably doesn’t run four-deep.

The way I see it, the All-Star game is the perfect opportunity to carry three designated hitters, since most of the non-starters at the game won’t figure to get more than one at-bat anyway.

Bonus: Butler would become a natural candidate for the home run derby if he was named to the squad. If Saturday’s bomb against the Twins is any indication, he could put on quite a show.

The Case Against: Butler must get tired of hearing this, but no conversation regarding his talents is complete until the obligatory mention that he doesn’t play defense. When he’s competing for a roster spot with defensive stalwarts Moustakas and Escobar, that fact simply has to be taken into account.

Odds of Making Team: 65%

My Pick: He’s in.

(no seriously, I’ll wait).

Below are the six-pack of hard-hitting questions I leveled at Tom to prepare Royals fans for the feisty 29-27 Pirates:

Andrew McCutchen leads the team in virtually every relevant statistical category. Is there a more popular man in Pittsburgh right now?

Andrew McCutchen is the leader of the Pirates. Benny Sieu-US PRESSWIRE

Cutch gets his far share too–there is a minority of people who look at his arm and question it.  Even more wonder how in the hell he can’t be a better base stealer or base runner.  However, Cutch is a popular figure and without him, this Pirates team would be in sad shape.  It’s hard to understand why some teams pitched to him in the past month, the Bucs had precious few other bats that were consistent.

We also think the Pirates were embarrassed by how they finished last season.  It was a huge flop.  Most of the team looks to be in great condition and that off season work and commitment has (knocking on a 2 by 4) kept the team very healthy in the first third of the season.

I am envious of the rotation Pittsburgh has put together. Do Pirates fans appreciate the finds of A.J. Burnett and Erik Bedard, and do you feel comfortable with them taking the hill?

Erik Bedard of the Pirates will get the start tonight against Luke Hochevar and the Kansas City Royals. Charles LeClaire-US PRESSWIRE

The city loves veteran players.  It’s unreal.  Give Pittsburgh a chiseled veteran like Burnett who looks like he just polished off a shot and an Iron at the corner pub and they will cheer all night for the guy.  Bedard has won fans from the get go… his strong start on a gorgeous opening day at PNC Park that had the stands and rotundo overflowing.  It also helps when he gives insanely short answers to the media’s questions.

Pittsburgh appreciates talented players on the mound, it’s been a long time since it’s occured so the absence of talent has definently made the hearts of Pirates fans have an affection for what Bedard and Burnett have going on right now in the Burgh.

The bottom line is that he has struggled mightily, but the team simply can’t give up on him.  He needs to play to make future evaluations of his status.   The bench isn’t a smart option.

Most fans knew it was Evil Scotty messing with our Team President and rival Frank Coonelly, formerly of MLB.

But now the circumstances have changed; the Royals have faced injury, ineffectiveness, and an insufferable losing streak. They are toeing that “disappointed” line in a dangerous way.

As we move into June, the players listed below have only a few more weeks to prove that they deserve to be the Royals single, obligatory All-Star selection. I’ve now come to the realization that it would take a run of epic proportions to catapult a second Royal onto the American League roster*. But we’ll see over these next weeks if any of these players (or the team as a whole) can take the league by storm.

*anti-jinx alert. Come on boys.

OFFICIAL ROYALS ALL-STAR POWER RANKINGS, Vol. 3

Billy Butler has displayed excellent power in 2012. Joy R. Absalon-US PRESSWIRE

1.Billy Butler – Season: .289/.352/.521 with 11 home runs, 11 doubles, and 35 RBI. Last Week: .217/.308/.478 with 2 home runs.

Butler takes the top spot this week mostly by default, after a week in which most of his competition stalled. But Butler’s .478 slugging percentage does incite optimism. As Mike Moustakas encountered a mini-slump, Butler has emerged as the lineup’s best hitter.

The main reason that Butler has elevated to the top spot is an obvious one: He’s been the best hitter on the team. Butler has also put in his dues by being the team’s best hitter over the past several seasons. He’s one of the longest tenured Royals, which means that, for better or worse, Butler is practically synonymous with Kansas City baseball. As long as he is producing at his current clip, I’m not sure it matters what position he plays.  While the designated hitter position continues to boast a wealth of worthy All- Star candidates, it remains plausible that Butler would be an enticing bat to stash in the American League line-up for a pinch-hitting opportunity.

2. Mike Moustakas – Season: .272/.335/.485 with 8 HR, 12 doubles, and 24 RBI. Last Week: .227/.346/.409 with  5 RBI, 4 walks.

Moustakas has spent the better part of the past two weeks in a certifiable free fall. On May 27th, his slash numbers had fallen down to .264/.320/.465 from his season-high of .313/.370/.545 on May 7th. It looked like the Royals third baseman may have reverted to his  form of those dark days immediately following his call-up in 2011.

Mike Moustakas slips from the top spot in the rankings for the first time. Joy R. Absalon-US PRESSWIRE

But Moustakas has recorded hits in each of the past three games, including a 4 RBI game on Tuesday in which he hit his 8th home run of the season. So the potential crisis may have been averted.

The bad news for Moustakas is that Detroit’s Miguel Cabrera has been raking in recent weeks, and has raised his OPS to a robust .882. Mark  Trumbo of the Angels presents another potential dilemma now that he has been moved to third base. Although Trumbo is not on the All-Star ballot as a third baseman, he is certainly in line for a coach’s pick with his 1.029 OPS.

Moustakas’ drop in rank is more of a product of what’s happening around him than of a short slump. A strong week (or a Butler slump) could bring him back to the top of these rankings.

3. Tim Collins – Season: 2.42 ERA in 26 IP, 38 strikeouts, 7 walks, 18 hits. Last Week: 4.1 IP, 2 hits, o ER, 0 walks, 6 strikeouts.

Now here’ s a guy who has done nothing to diminish his chances of representing the Royals at Kauffman Stadium this summer. Collins has been electric this season, and last week was no different.

Tim Tim Collins has reached new heights this season. Anthony Gruppuso-US PRESSWIRE

In fact, Collins has not given up a run since May 7th. In that time, he has pitch 9.2 innings, allowed 4 hits, walked 3, and struck out 16 batters. He’s been the best reliever on the team, and it hasn’t been particularly close. Before you mention Jonathan Broxton, keep in mind that in his 19.2 innings of work, he’s struck out only 12 batters while allowing 18 hits.

Collins, for his part, has struck out 26 more batters in just 6.1 more innings of work. The cherry on top of this argument, if it’s necessary, is that Collins has allowed the same number of hits and walks as Broxton despite those 6.1 extra innings.

Am I getting too excited about two months worth of dominant relieving from Collins? Maybe.

But keep this in mind: through this season’s first two months, Collins has a K/9 ratio of 13.2. Retired 7-time All-Star closer Billy Wagner, who at the (listed) height of just 5 feet, 10 inches is a popular comp for Collins, recorded a career K/9 ratio of 11.9.

Obviously, it’s unfair to compare an entire career of one player to two months from another player. But Collins has the potential to turn that comp into a legitimate one.

Just some food for thought.

4. Alcides Escobar – Season: .303/.344/.404 with 13 doubles and 8 stolen bases. Last Week: .292/.346/.292 with 4 runs.

Escobar has jumped a level offensively this season, but it might not be enough to make him an All-Star. David Richard-US PRESSWIRE

Despite maintaining a relatively high batting average throughout the season, Escobar has had difficulty hitting for power. Last week was a perfect example of that trend, as Escobar hit .292, but did so without the benefit of an extra base hit. As such, he finished the week with an identical .292 slugging percentage.

All that being said, Escobar has still put together a fantastic season. And of course, his defense certainly helps erase any offensive deficiencies he may possess. But defense is not easily quantifiable in terms of All-Star worthiness, especially since Escobar doesn’t (yet) own an entire shelf of Gold Gloves, as does direct competitor Derek Jeter.

Unless he can put together a ridiculous offensive stretch, Escobar will likely be overlooked at the shortstop position.

5. Felipe Paulino – Season: 2.03 ERA in 31 innings, 34 strikeouts, 12 walks. Last Week: 5.2 IP, 5 hits, 3 ER, 5 walks, 5 strikeouts.

Paulino struggled a bit with command in his last start, although he pulled himself together for long enough to put up a reasonably effective outing. He dropped a spot this week, however, because he showed his first chinks in the armor by walking five batters.

Felipe Paulino is probably a longshot to make the All-Star game. Joy R. Absalon-US PRESSWIRE

The walks are an area of concern, although I can excuse them if the trend doesn’t continue into Friday’s planned start against the historically lowly A’s offense. Seriously, go look at their lineup on Friday, I’ll wait*.

*If you are one of those who believe that Jeff Francouer was overpaid by Dayton Moore last season, just be thankful that the Royals don’t owe Coco Crisp and his .440 OPS $14 million over the next two seasons. 

I’m of the opinion that the walks were a result of Paulino’s awareness that he didn’t have his best stuff that night. If he felt that his stuff was hittable, I can at least understand the control issues. Who wants to voluntarily serve up meatballs?

He’s essentially become the ace of the Royals pitching staff, and as such carries with him the expectation of recording a quality start every time out. He couldn’t afford a quick hook. I expect him to get back on track Friday and continue to pitch effectively leading into the All-Star break.

HONORABLE MENTION: Jonathan Broxton (3 saves in past week), Jeff Francouer (1.306 OPS last week!!!), Bruce Chen (just pulled career win percentage over .500)

The good news? We have in-house candidates who are actually deserving of those spots. Remember, as I stated last week, that these ranking are largely subjective. They are based primarily off overall performance, although extra credit is passed out for those who are playing well now and who have, by proxy,  earned greater expectations moving forward.

Enjoy.

1. Mike Moustakas – (Last Week: .250/.323/.571)

Moustakas hit three home runs last week, drove home four RBI, and scored six runs. He’s been as consistent a presence in the line-up as anybody. Moustakas’ overall slash line for the season rests at .295/.351/.525, and he continues to lead AL third basemen in some major offensive categories. As of Tuesday afternoon, Moustakas ranked first among AL third basemen with his .876 OPS, tied for first with 11 doubles, second in Slugging Percentage, and third place with his seven home runs. Moustakas may not have the same cache as some of his contemporaries, but right now he’s putting up enough production to trump cache.

There was no way he was going to slip down the rankings this week.

2. Billy Butler – (Last Week: .440/.516/.760)

Speaking of hot streaks, Billy Butler is scorching right now. Butler hit two home runs last week, but also put up 11 hits and, more importantly, walked four times against just three strikeouts. Butler has hit with authority for most of the season, but one flaw (for the nit-picker) had been his reduced walk rate. Even with the positive week, Butler has only walked 11 times this season, against 26 K’s. Butler’s season slash line is now an impressive .308/.369/.528, and it seems like a few more walks are the only thing keeping him from raising his OPS above .900.

Billy Butler has been crushing the ball over the past week. Anthony Gruppuso-US PRESSWIRE

Butler’s surge has catapulted him above Toronto’s Edwin Encarnacion in the all-important American League designated hitter OPS chase, as Butler’s .897 mark rests below only Chicago’s Adam Dunn and Boston’s David Ortiz among the league’s DH’s.

Ortiz is a certifiable lock, both for his present performance as well as his lifetime achievement within the game (insert PED joke here). Dunn, though, is coming off of a god awful season, and has struck out 62 times this year while sporting a .247 batting average. Obviously, Dunn’s 14 home runs and .596 Slugging Percentage are more important indicators of his success this season than batting average. But there is at least an outside chance that Ron Washington can be persuaded to choose Butler, since the game is in Kansas City.

A guy can dream, right?

3. Alcides Escobar – (Last Week: .321/.387/.321)

Escobar didn’t really do anything to lower his ranking in this list, although he didn’t hit an extra base hit all of last week. For the season he sits at .301/.342/.418, which is excellent for a shortstop with his defensive skills. Furthermore, can Royals fans be any happier with Escobar’s play? Even when he isn’t hitting the ball with authority, he manages to put together professional at-bats. If I had told you during the off-season that Escobar would have a .760 OPS in late May, wouldn’t you be jumping for joy?

I don’t want to put too much pressure on Escobar, but screw it, I’ll ask anyway. Doesn’t his play this season, combined with the great early returns from farmhand Jake Odorizzi, justify the Zack Greinke trade? And what if Lorenzo Cain eventually comes back healthy and posts a productive season? Is it time to give Dayton Moore credit for dealing Greinke for peak value while under difficult circumstances? Should I just stop asking questions and move on?

4. Felipe Paulino – (Last Week: 2 games started, 13.2 innings pitched, 0.00 ERA, 17 K’s, 4 Walks)

Ok, one more question. Remember during spring training when people wondered whether it would be prudent to start Paulino in the bullpen so the organization could get an extended look at Luis freaking Mendoza? Me neither. I’ve blocked it out of my memory, like the the Jim Pittsley era and any movie featuring Paul Walker.

That spring training “dilemma” seems like eons ago now that Paulino has come off the D.L. like gangbusters, throwing 97 mph heat along with a devastating, knee-buckling, now-you-see-me-now-you-don’t slider to a revolving door of confused and hapless batters.

Here’s a crazy (and somewhat discouraging) stat for you: after four starts for the Royals, Paulino is now tied for third on the team with 29 strikeouts, only nine behind team leader Bruce Chen.

It may seem like a long shot now, but if Paulino continues to blow away hitters he can become a surprisingly viable All-Star candidate for what has been a battered rotation.His 1.42 ERA and 10.30 K/9 ratio look shiny, especially compared to the rest of the starters on staff.

5. Tim Collins – (Last Week: 4.2 innings pitched, 9 strikeouts, 2 hits, 2 walks, 0.00 ERA)

Filthy. That’s the only adjective to describe Collins’ performance over the past week. Collins deserves to surpass closer Jonathan Broxton in these rankings, because frankly, he has been the better pitcher this season. And this is not all about Broxton blowing another save against the Orioles last Wednesday. Sure, that had a lot to do with it. But it wasn’t everything.

No pitcher on the team has had me shouting expletives of joy more often this season than Collins. Over the course of the past week alone, he’s probably made five or six hitters look utterly hopeless. I mean, swinging a foot over a falling curve ball hopeless.

In a bullpen full of electric arms, the diminutive Collins has pitched 21.2 mostly high-leverage innings, posting a 2.91 ERA and striking out 32 batters while only walking seven. The strikeouts put Collins second on the team, miraculously, and his 13.29 K/9 ratio is borderline ridiculous.

If another token reliever is chosen to represent the Royals at the All-Star game this season, I see no reason why it shouldn’t be Tim Collins.

Honorable Mention: Bruce Chen (deceptively steady), Jonathan Broxton (free-falling but not out of consideration yet).

From now until the All-Star selections are announced later this summer, I’ll be subjectively breaking down the five Royals each week who I think have the best shot to make the team, based both on the previous week’s performance as well as what can reasonably expected moving forward.

All cited statistics are valid through Tuesday, May 15th’s ridiculously surprising victory over the Texas Rangers. You know, the one that was won by Vin Mazzaro, secured a series sweep over the best team in the AL, and brought the Royals record to 15-20.

2012 Kansas City Royals All-Star Power Rankings

1. Mike Moustakas – In an article posted a couple of weeks ago, I downplayed Moustakas’ chances of making the All-Star game because of the high-priced talent at his position. But in the time since that sage opinion hit the interwebs, a couple of things have broken in his favor.

One, Evan Longoria suffered a hip injury, taking him out of consideration for a spot if he isn’t voted in by the fans. Considering the fact that

Mike Moustakes may now be the logical choice to represent the Royals in the All Star game. Peter G. Aiken-US PRESSWIRE

Longoria was hitting .329/.433/.561 with four home runs and 19 RBI’s when he last played (on April 30th), it’s safe to say that Moustakas’ candidacy has been bolstered.

Longoria could, however, still be voted in by the fans, and perennial All-Stars Adrian Beltre and Miguel Cabrera are also on the ballot as third basemen. So Moustakas in by no means a shoe-in. But the Royals third baseman is currently putting up a better line, .310/.371/.540, than any other eligible third baseman (sans Longoria) in the American League.

The second benefit for Moustakas is the way he is breaking away from the rest of the Royals offensively. Aside from newly promoted Irving Falu, Billy Butler is the only other Royal with an OPS over .800, and he still lags fifty points behind Moustakas. If he continues to keep his stat line above those of Cabrera, Beltre, and Alex Rodriguez, it will be hard to pick a different Royal for the big game in Kansas City this summer.

2. Alcides Escobar - I’ve stated Escobar’s case here before, and he continues to stake his claim for one the American League shortstop spots in the All-Star game. Escobar has put together several defensive highlights over the past week, including this incredible web gem on a play he made in short left field.

Escobar’s bat has held up admirably as well. Heading into Wednesday, he has compiled a line of .287/.320/.426, good for fourth among AL shortstop qualifiers with a .746 OPS.

So why, might you ask, do I now view Moustakas as a more viable All-Star?

It has to do with the competition each player faces. While the injury to Evan Longoria has opened things up for Moustakas, strong offensive streaks from Texas’ Elvis Andrus and Cleveland’s Asdrubal Cabrera have hurt Escobar’s chance to make the cut. Remember that Derek Jeter is having a resurgent season, and even if he wasn’t, would be an almost certain selection by the fans anyway.

Simply put, there is more firepower for Escobar to compete with at the moment than for Moustakas. That makes a difference.

3. Billy Butler – At this point, Butler is a longshot to be the Royals All-Star representative. Sporting a .288/.340/.489 line heading out of Texas on Tuesday, Butler is pretty firmly entrenched as the fourth best designated hitter in the American League behind David Ortiz, Adam Dunn, and Edwin Encarnacion all currently OPS’ing over .900.

Butler will need a vintage Butler-esque hot streak in order to get back into the mix, and while he is due for an offensive run, he’ll still be hard-pressed to make up the 150+ OPS points he currently needs to surpass Dunn or Ortiz.

One day, Butler will get his due, but he’ll need to show more consistency and/or ride a ridiculous hot stretch before he can be considered among the elite hitters in the American League. For now, he’ll likely have to settle for being one of the elite hitters on the Kansas City Royals.

4. Jonathan Broxton -Based off of his initial performances from early April, Royals fans may be hesitant to anoint Broxton as an All-Star caliber player. But even with that disastrous opening week blown save against Oakland, Broxton has put up a stellar campaign.

Jonathan Broxton is probably the only Royals pitcher with a chance to make the All-Star game. Peter G. Aiken-US PRESSWIRE

Those who watch every game may lament Broxton’s knack for getting himself in (and out of) trouble, but I’m fairly certain that AL manager Ron Washington doesn’t watch the first year Royals closer pitch every day. What Washington might notice, however, is that Broxton currently ranks third among AL closers with a 1.32 ERA and fourth in the league with eight saves.

If Washington is put in a position to take Texas’ Adrian Beltre over Moustakas, Broxton may be the guy he looks at to fill the obligatory Royals spot on the American League Roster.

5. Alex Gordon – To be honest, not too many Royals have distinguished themselves as reasonable candidates for the fifth and final spot on this list. But as I mentioned at the top of this post, one of the factors that will go into these rankings is expected future results.

Gordon has as much room for growth as anyone on the team  besides Eric Hosmer, except he already owns a 150 point lead over Hosmer with his .729 OPS.

Gordon absolutely deserved the All-Star nod in 2011, so it would be poetic justice to see him make a meteoric rise to the top spot of these rankings.

HONORABLE MENTION: Danny Duffy (2012 season R.I.P), Jarrod Dyson (the man just gets on base), Bruce Chen (that would be great to see, no?)

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And those alarms bells proved to be warranted today, as Duffy now appears to be heading for Tommy John surgery per an afternoon tweet from the Royals official Twitter account.

 

 

#Royals head physician Dr. Key diagnoses LHP Danny Duffy with a torn left ulnar collateral ligament. Duffy to get 2nd opinion w/ Dr. Yocum.

— Kansas City Royals (@Royals) May 14, 2012

 

Obviously, there isn’t much more to say here that isn’t part of an extended and expletive-laden tirade. Royals fans everywhere just had their worst fears realized, just saw the club’s most (arguably only) promising pitcher likely sidelined for over a year. And while we’re on the subject of heavy realizations, the following question needs to be considered: Will Duffy ever be the electrifying, high 90′s pumping wunderkind he was this season ever again?

I’m not ready to answer that (quite depressing) question yet, and truthfully am barely ready to comprehend the loss of Duffy on this 2012 Royals team. With fellow lefty Jonathan Sanchez also currently on the DL, the already struggling rotation is sure to be a glaring weakness for the remainder of the season. Unless, of course, you have the utmost faith in injury replacements Vin Mazzaro, Luis Mendoza, and Nate Adcock.

Sigh.

Is there any better way to start a road trip against Josh Hamilton and the white-hot Texas Rangers?

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Billy Butler has been crushing the ball this season, but he's not likely to make the All-Star team. Image: Peter G. Aiken-US PRESSWIRE

But, barring a historic run over the next month, he won’t be the All-Star representative of the Kansas City Royals*.

*Sure, it’s still possible for the Royals to earn more than one All-Star selection. But for now, I’ll still refuse to dignify that notion. Answer me this: how many unbiased observers do you expect to check a member of the AL-worst, 6-15 Royals on their respective All-Star ballots?

If the American League roster were announced today, that honor would be bestowed upon shortstop Alcides Escobar.

Escobar has been one of the most improved hitters in the major leagues this season. For some perspective on the evolution of Alcides, consider his performance this April versus what he compiled in April 2011.

April 2011 Escobar:.221/.248/.260 with a .507 OPS, four extra base hits, and a 44 OPS+

April 2012 Escobar: .295/.329/.449 with a .778 OPS, nine extra base hits and a 113 OPS+

While Escobar’s credentials may not look great compared to Butler’s, the truth of the matter when it comes to All-Star selections is that, often times, the biggest factor is a player’s position of eligibility.

Butler faces a murderer’s row of preposterously talented and high-performing sluggers at the designated hitter position. Among those registered as DH’s on MLB’s official All-Star ballot are perennial All-Stars (David Ortiz and Michael Young), oft-injured and possibly rejuvenated stars (Justin Morneau, Adam Dunn, and Travis Hafner),  a young upstart (Jesus Montero),  and a wild card (Edwin Encarnacion).

Of the above listed players, Encarnacion and Ortiz have posted a higher OPS than Butler, while Hafner, Morneau, Dunn, and even Young are nipping at their heels. Along with production, there are a lot of established names on that list.

Conversely, shortstop might be the weakest offensive position in the American League. Among Escobar’s chief competition for a roster spot are one perennial All-Star and mortal lock to start the game (Derek Jeter),  a one-time All-Star who broke out in 2011 (Asdrubal Cabrera), a thought-to-be washed up vet who found new life in 2011 and now looks washed up again (Jhonny Peralta), a thought-to-be washed up former Royal who is having an almost assuredly fluky hot stretch for a playoff contender (Mike Aviles), a young up and comer who isn’t quite there yet (Elvis Andrus), and a plethora of coulda-shoulda-woulda stars who are currently performing like 2011 Alcides Escobar (Yunel Escobar, Erick Aybar, Alexei Ramirez, J.J. Hardy).

As mentioned above, Jeter is a foregone conclusion. No need to belabor that point. Cabrera has performed well in the follow-up campaign to his breakout 2011 season. Andrus is a dark horse who could secure his spot with a strong offensive showing in the next month.  Aviles is a non-concern, because he is past due for an 0-21 streak with 12 strikeouts and everybody knows it.

Alcides Escobar could be the first Royals shortstop to make an All-Star team since Kurt Stillwell in 1988. Image: Jason O. Watson-US PRESSWIRE

Alcides Escobar is right in the mix. His offensive numbers trail only Jeter, Cabrera, and Aviles, while his five stolen bases are tied with Andrus atop AL shortstops. Defensive metrics are difficult to gauge at this point of the season, but Escobar’s reputation with the glove surpasses all of the contenders except perhaps Andrus. The 23 year old Andrus would, on account of his national exposure and expectations of grandeur, be a logical choice to squeeze past Escobar for a spot on the team, except for one fact: The Rangers already have a boatload of incredibly awesome players who are more deserving of places on the team, including Josh Hamilton, Adrian Beltre, Nelson Cruz, Young, Neftali Feliz, and Yu Darvish.

Cabrera is a more reasonable option, as he is plying his craft on a Cleveland Indians team just waiting to get exposed. But with Alcides posting comparable offensive numbers, his defensive advantages could make this comparison a wash.

Remember, the Royals need someone to represent the team in their home ballpark over All-Star weekend. The case has been made against Butler. The only other legitimate option, third baseman Mike Moustakas, is up against stalwarts Evan Longoria, Adrian Beltre, and Alex Rodriguez. So that’s not happening, barring injury or miracle. Escobar is shaping up to be the best candidate.

Now that you’ve seen the case for Alcides Escobar, consider what his offensive emergence means for the Royals. If he can continue to hit the ball with authority, that 4 year, $10.5 million contract extension he signed (with two team option years) will look like highway robbery for the Royals.

And if Escobar’s efforts are recognized with his first All-Star appearance, he will become the first Royals shortstop to make an All-Star team since, gulp, Kurt Stillwell in 1988.

Now consider that for a moment.

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Dyson earned the promotion by posting surprisingly stellar offensive numbers at Omaha. Dyson has put up a .333/.373/.476 line in 63 at-bats. The .476 slugging percentage has been the biggest shock, as Dyson has shown a modicum of power in hitting three doubles and three triples against Class AAA pitching. For comparison, Dyson’s .849 OPS thus far is 136 points better than his full-season line in Omaha during the 2011 season.

Jaon Bourgeois's defining moment in a KC uniform may have been this April 22 pickoff against the Blue Jays. Peter G. Aiken-US PRESSWIRE

Bourgeois, for his part, has essentially been a non-factor since being traded in Spring Training from the Houston Astros in the Humberto Quintero-Kevin Chapman deal.  His defining moment, in fact, may have been a low-light. In the middle of the club’s crippling 12 game losing streak, Bourgeois was picked off of first base in a close game with the Toronto Blue Jays on April 22. It was the last time Bourgeois appeared in a game for the Royals. With Dyson raking in Omaha, the move to swap the two outfielders was a no-brainer.

Bourgeios’ inclusion in the Quintero deal was always questionable, especially since Lorenzo Cain was healthy at the time and Mitch Maier was/is firmly entrenched as the club’s fourth outfielder.

Dyson, however, is slightly more intriguing both because of the increased power he’s flashed at Omaha this season as well as the fact that he experienced success at the beginning of 2011 while manning that “super-sub” for the Royals.

Dyson will be starting in center field and leading off in tonight’s game, and it will be interesting to see how he seizes his latest opportunity with the big club.

From my perspective, though, it will be difficult for Dyson to fall short of Bourgeois’ high water mark for the Royals. And with any luck, Dyson can show a little bit of pop and improve the base-running for a squad that has only recorded 11 stolen bases in 19 attempts.

In short, there is little to lose by calling up Dyson, but there is a potential gain. It’s a good decision, especially considering the recent news that starting center fielder Cain has suffered a setback in his rehabilitation from a pulled groin.

Let’s see what Dyson can do.

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Luke Hochevar left Friday's start worse for the wear. Denny Medley-US PRESSWIRE

That’s what I thought to myself late Friday afternoon as I watched the first inning of the Kansas City Royals’ home opener on DVR delay. What else was there to think as the worst case scenario was playing out before our eyes like a nightmare designed by Freddy Krueger.

It would be difficult to imagine a worse welcome for Royals Nation than the one provided by starting pitcher Luke Hochever. After a sellout crowd shelled out big bucks for tickets, gas, parking, food, drinks, merchandise, and carousel rides, Hochevar allowed the Indians to batter him like a speed bag in the first inning.

I’m barely exaggerating.

And the day started with such promise. The sun peaked out from behind the clouds. There was a packed house of fans brimming with optimism. Alex Gordon received his Golden Glove award in a pregame ceremony. The Royals obliged the will of the people by orchestrating a military flyover.

I was definitely jealous. And then Luke Hochevar took the hill.

Cleveland lead-off hitter Michael Brantley – riding a devastating 0-15 stretch – singled sharply to lead off the game. This was not a good sign for Hochevar, who has always struggled with men on base. In his career, he has allowed a robust .304/.372/.478 line with runners on.

Second hitter Asdrubal Cabrera sensed the blood in the water, ripping a double into the left field corner that put runners at second and third with no outs. At this point, Royals color commentator Rex Hudler opined that Hochevar could be suffering from Opening Day jitters. I foolishly (and somewhat desperately) accepted this theory.

Shin-Soo Choo didn’t bite, though, and knocked the runners in with a seeing eye single that slipped just under second baseman Yuniesky Betancourt‘s glove*.

*Yuni later booted a routine ground ball. Insert snide Yuni joke here.

Hochevar pulled it together long enough to strike out clean-up hitter Carlos Santana, although Choo did steal second on the strikeout pitch. When Travis Hafner grounded meekly to Eric Hosmer for the second out of the inning, the situation almost seemed palatable. A two run deficit is a manageable position.

And then Shelley Duncan ruined that fleeting moment of hope with one positively hideous, “oopsy-daisy” swing. Hochevar delivered a high 95 miles per hour fastball that Duncan tried to keep himself from swinging at. Only it was too late: In his effort to halt the swingm Duncan’s back foot had twisted awkwardly below his body, his head turned, eyes half closed. Of course, he blooped a soft single over the head of Hosmer, scoring Choo.

Casey Kotchman followed that up with a single, as Hudler acknowledged that Hochevar was finding “too much of the plate.” On his next pitch, Hochevar grooved a fastball to new batter Jason Kipnis. It couldn’t have been juicier if it was placed on a tee. Kipnis predictably crushed a shot to the center field wall, just over the outstretched glove of Jarrod Dyson, scoring two runs to make it a 5-0 game. Things were quickly spiraling out of control.

On the next pitch, Jack Hannahan ripped a single to center field to score Kipnis. Hochevar threw a wild pitch, and then Michael Brantley (you getting deja vu yet?) crushed a double off the top of the right field wall. 7-0 Indians. The dismal turn of events led to this rich exchange between the Royals TV team of Hudler and Ryan Lefebvre.

Lefevbre: “Not what the folks had in mind when they walked through the turnstiles today.”

Hudler (subdued):  “Not at all.”

That was pretty much that. The Royals tried to make a game of it, scoring three unanswered runs to get the score to 7-3. But they ultimately perished, falling by a final count of 8-3.

The story of the game, though, was that first inning. After that fiasco, the revelry dissipated abruptly.

To add injury to insult, Hochevar took a hard line drive off the inside of his left ankle in the fourth inning. Although x-rays were negative, He could wind up missing his next start.

So, yeah, Opening Day was a disappointment. But that didn’t stop me from watching the game. It didn’t stop me from appreciating doubles from Mike Moustakas and Billy Butler (he leads the American League!). It definitely didn’t stop me from being spellbound by the triple digit fastballs Kelvin Herrera was slinging to home plate.

Even in the worst case scenario, I couldn’t help from being drawn into the game. There are so many intriguing parts on this team. For the first time in ages – even with a couple of bumps in the road – it’s going to be a fun year to be a Royals fan.

There’s another game tonight, and I for one will be praying for the weather gods to leave Kauffman Stadium alone.

I need to get the bitter taste from last night out of my mouth immediately.

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Let’s start with the mea culpa.

Last week I broke downthe spring training performances of various Royals in an attempt to predict which efforts were mirages, and which were real. In any such breakdown, the author will oftentimes end up with egg on their faces. It’s inevitable. Especially when such predictions are delivered with unabashed certainty.

The Royals surprised me (and the rest of the world) by naming Bruce Chen the opening day starter. Allan Henry-US PRESSWIRE

As Kurt Vonnegut would say, “so it goes”.

But sometimes, when the error is so egregious that it cannot be overlooked, the writer of said grossly miscalculated prediction must step forward and offer his condolences to those who took his words at face value.

Now is one of those moments.

Within that aforementioned piece, in the wake of another horrible spring start, I predicted that veteran lefty Chen would begin the season on the disabled list. I went so far as to insinuate that Chen may have been a dubious off-season signing, in lieu of his age and noted lack of “pure stuff”.

Of course, Chen pitched exceedingly well in his next start. So well, in fact, that he was named the opening day starter immediately after the game was over. Suddenly, my hypothesis was more outdated than 1995 Sandra Bullock thriller The Net.

In the matter of a couple of days, Chen was named the opening day starter, Felipe Paulino was (somewhat curiously) placed on the disabled list, and Luis Mendoza laid claim to the final rotation spot. It was also announced, and subsequently lost in shuffle behind the plethora of other moves, that Luke Hochevar would be the starter for the home opener. So it looks like, in a way, Hochevar was rewarded for his stellar second half and strong spring training. I’m happy for Hoch, who has been the most consistent Royals pitcher since last season’s All-Star break. Proof: in the second half of 2011 Hochevar sported a 3.52 ERA and 68 strikeouts in 79.1 innings pitched. Batters combined to OPS .647 against him. With this in mind, I felt that he earned the opening day start for the second consecutive season.

But Chen got the Opening Day nod after a ghastly spring, and the decision was the biggest news of the week. Even with his solid final start, Chen finished spring training with an 11.50 ERA. He gave up 34 hits and 24 runs in 18 innings. Either something was wrong with him physically, or he was still feeling out his arsenal. Turns out it was the latter.

According to manager Ned Yost, Chen didn’t use his overhand fastball at all this spring until his last start. So, yeah.

That helps explain Chen’s wildly inflated spring ERA that hovered around 20 at points this spring, and also helps build the case that I was woefully misinformed to judge three weeks of spring training through box scores and occasional radio broadcasts.

So has my stance on Chen changed since I threw his career to the scrap heap last week?

Sure. With tail firmly between legs, I’d like to apologize to Chen, his family, friends, and acquaintances for throwing him under the proverbial bus last week. Obviously, there were factors I wasn’t aware of that were at play.

That being said: I still think Hochevar deserved to start Opening Day.

I’m glad you asked. As always, the players I choose to feature are based loosely on their inherent value to the club, as well as a healthy dose of pure unadulterated subjectivity.

The MIRAGE DIVISION

Max Ramirez – Spring stats: .391/.481/.826 with three home runs and 11 RBI’s.

I predicted a while back that Ramirez would get play with the Royals this season, and in the meantime, Salvador Perez’ injury has made that notion a greater possibility. That being said, I find it hard to believe that Ramirez will be a 1.307 OPS player  moving forward.

Instead, it seems like Ramirez is cleaning up in the scenario best suited for him – against quadruple-A pitching. He may well get forty games on the big league roster, but a period of sustained success would be a first in the big leagues.

In the meantime, I’ll air on the side of caution.

Chris Getz – Spring stats: .333/.370/.375 with three stolen bases.

Saying that Getz is due to regress is as drab as saying that the sun is hot. Nonetheless, it is always terrifying to see Getz swing the bat well in spring training because we can never predict what Ned Yost might do under the spell of a couple gritty Getz performances. Just know this: the closer we get to the regular season, the more likely it becomes that Yost picks Getz to man second base over the struggling Johnny Giavotella (who we’ll get to later).

Mitch Maier – Spring stats: .333/.394/.500 with four extra base hits.

See Getz, Chris.

Maier has always had the innate ability to crush the ball during spring training, but so far it has never translated into consistent regular season success. He’ll probably make the team again, but his .894 spring training OPS should not illicit much optimism. Maier will be 30 in June and he’s more likely to regress at this point than make significant strides I’d love to be wrong on that though.

Wil Myers – Spring stats: .278/.278/.278 with no extra base hits

Myers wasn’t in camp long enough to form a solid opinion on, so I’ll provide you with an unsupported one. Despite hitting for zero power this spring, Myers is due for a breakout season at AAA Omaha. He’s the best of the hitting prospects left at the minor league level, and he should be more comfortable beginning his second season in the outfield. I think Myers will display enough power to go with his sweet swing to earn a late-season promotion.

Salvador Perez – Spring stats: .000/.000/.000

Salvador Perez will miss the first half of the season with a knee injury. Peter G. Aiken-US PRESSWIRE

This is an easy one. Perez suffered through a wild spring training that saw him sign a club friendly contract extension, promptly go 0-15 in his first spring training at-bats, and then suffer a knee injury that will cost him at least the first two months of the season. Admittedly, all those zeroes across the board are pretty jarring.

Perez’ spring was a mirage, though, because I expect him to be a reliable player moving forward. His bat, which looked too good to be true during his call-up last season, was too bad to be true during his miniscule spring sample size. His offense should eventually be more than capable as a supporting skill behind his stellar defense.

The Royals will closely monitor Perez as he rehabs this injury and he should be re-installed as a lynchpin of the organization by the All-Star break.

Tommy Hottovy – 0.00 ERA, 6 IP, 7 strikeouts, 0 walks.

Great story, seems like a great kid. The peripherals are there too. It’s funny, we aren’t supposed to take too much stock in spring training stats, unless of course there is competition at a position. Then those stats suddenly become a deciding factor in the shaping of the roster. Hottovy has been excellent this spring, but that doesn’t mean he’s making the team. There are simply too many other players ahead of him, even with the almost certain extended loss of closer Joakim Soria.

-Mike Montgomery – 20.50 ERA, 2.2 IP, 1 strikeout, 3 walks.

Montgomery was simply too bad to be believed in his limited time with the big club this spring. Royals Nation now just has to hope that Monty can avoid the type of early season swoon that submarined his 2011 campaign.

Even with the struggles, however, Montgomery is arguably the best arm in the Royals farm system, and he’ll get plenty more chances. I think he’ll pull himself together and make his major league debut during 2012.

-Jonathan Sanchez – 21.00 ERA, 3.0 IP, 2 walks, 2 strikeouts.

If Sanchez’ spring is not an aberration, then may God have mercy on my soul. Sanchez has made Bruce Chen look like Steve Carlton in managing to pitch only three innings this spring. Sanchez has, however, packed  a lot of work into those innings, giving up seven runs and walking two batters during what has been a disastrous introduction to Royals fans.

Something tells me Dayton Moore is not in a rush to get Sanchez signed to an extension.

The Real Division

Billy Butler – .415/.478/.732 with 3 home runs, 4 doubles, and 7 walks.

Butler has been clinical this spring in what has been a welcome continuation of his late-season surge in 2011. He is absolutely mashing right now, and seems poised to become a feared hitter this season.

In fact, Butler even showed up to  camp in good enough shape to convince Yost to give him an occasional start at first base. He appears ready to put together is best season yet. Stop me if you’ve heard that before.

Alex Gordon – .405/.460/.643 with 2 home runs, 4 doubles and 6 walks.

Any lingering reservations about the long-term ability of Gordon should be put to rest by his torrid spring. I won’t take too much time breaking down Gordon, since I’m fairly sure that 99.9% of the fan base saw last season as a true breakout, but I must admit it’s been nice of him to spare us a spring worth of questions regarding his long-term prospects. This guy is ready to be the star he was always supposed to be.

Lorenzo Cain – .486/.537/.1000 with 4 home runs, 7 doubles, and 4 walks.

Lorenzo Cain's big Spring Training has been the real deal. Matt Kartozian-US PRESSWIRE

I thought Cain was too good for Triple-A last season and his scorching spring training performance this season will be taken as proof of that notion. Cain may be the most impressive Royal in Arizona right now, as his .500 spring average has just been ridiculous. I don’t think Lorenzo lamented playing in Omaha last season while Chris Getz and Mitch Maier earned major league paychecks. Oh wait, no, he definitely did.

Cain is proving that there is no fire quite like the one lit under somebody who is blocked for an entire season by wholly insufficient roster filler. Although even Cain must have understood how crazy it was that all three of KC’s outfielders had career years and stayed healthy throughout 2011.

Eric Hosmer – .367/.431/.571 with 2 homers, 4 doubles, 7 walks, and 17 RBI.

At this point it has almost become a bore to wax eloquently about Hosmer. He is one of a handful of the best young players in the game, and has also solidified himself as a clubhouse leader to boot. Interesting fact that made me like Hosmer even more this spring: he is half Cuban, and thus bilingual. It wasn’t hard to understand why Hosmer is the most popular player on the team before, but now it makes even more sense.

All that being said, is there a player you would trade Hosmer for straight up right now? I say no.

Greg Holland – 3.86 ERA with 7.0 IP, 11 strikeouts and 1 walk.

This spring Holland has shown exactly what he is. He’s a strikeout machine who is a could easily become a top-flight closer, perhaps as soon as this season. Holland is also the main reason why Royals fans seemed strangely ambivalent about the loss of closer Joakim Soria to Tommy John surgery.

The bullpen should be one of the best in baseball this season, and Holland is the best of the bunch.

Alcides Escobar – .324/.359/.459 with 2 triples.

I’ve always believed that Escobar will eventually hit acceptably, so I can only hope that his spring performance is a sign of things to come. If so, then Escobar’s recently minted contract extension might be even more favorable than that of (recently injured) starting catcher Salvador Perez.

Luis Mendoza – 0.77 ERA with 11.2 IP, 12 strikeouts, and 1 walk.

Okay, I must say that I didn’t see this one coming. Admittedly, I’ve frequently written Mendoza off as a rotation candidate before, but those days are over. The Royals have been insistent in their assertion that Mendoza has it figured out, and I finally believe them.

Furthermore, if Mendoza was “in the mix” for a rotation spot coming into March, then what has he possibly done to hurt his chances? Do I even need to mention that two Royals starters have put up an ERA over 20?

My prediction: Bruce Chen starts the season on the DL, Mendoza makes the rotation.

Bruce Chen – 15.00 ERA with 12 IP, 6 strikeouts and 1 walk.

Spoiler Alert! I think Chen might have some sort of injury, and if not, needs to fabricate on immediately. That two-year contract he signed in the off-season has an ominous feeling to it already. After a couple of above average seasons, Chen may be ready to become the rotation’s resident albatross.  I’d like to think he is simply taking time getting comfortable, but at his advanced age, it’s prudent to be skeptical. I hope I’m wrong.

Mike Moustakas – .216/.275/.243 with 1 extra base hit and 9 strikeouts.

Moustakas has had a rough spring, as is evidenced by the fact that his slugging percentage rest 32 points below his OBP.

Haven’t we seen this story before? I know it’s tempting to say that Moustakas will simply get through this and pick up where he left off last September, but I have a foreboding feeling that tells me otherwise. Moustakas may end up being more Alex Gordon than Billy Butler, as in, he might take some time to realize his considerable potential. Sure, he should be able to improve upon his Spring Training line (how could you not), but by how much*?

*Was that previous paragraph designed as  a complicated jinx intended to spark Moustakas into a fantastic April? Absolutely! I’m definitely ready for Opening Day.

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It's time for the Royals to present Eric Hosmer with a "Godfather" offer. Peter G. Aiken-US PRESSWIRE

I’m about play Royals general manager and in this case, I’ll undertake a version of Dayton Moore that possesses unlimited resources and doesn’t take no for an answer. This approach is the only way to find an answer to the burning question: what would it really cost to lock Eric Hosmer up to a contract extension?

Some have said it’s impossible, that Hosmer is already as good as gone.They bemoan the fact that he’ll eventually go to the Yankees or the Red Sox, because they’ll be the only ones who can meet Hosmer’s (read: Scott Boras’) inevitable meteoric salary demands*. For those who have aligned themselves with that notion, I’ll respond with this: you just might be right and wrong simultaneously.

*This incessant worry about the Yankees robbing all of the best Royals is borderline laughable. The last notable player to move (immediately) from Royal Blue to Yankee Pinstripes was a 38-year old Chili Davis in 1997. In the interest of full disclosure, however, it should be noted that the Yankees won a World Series title in each of Davis’ two seasons in New York. The moral of this aside: Chili Davis is the man.

It’s tough to argue, for instance, that Hosmer won’t be due a massive contract once he hits free agency. Super agent Scott Boras would (0stensibly) never let a prize like Hosmer skip out on that process. So if you have hopes of Hosmer becoming the next great lifelong Royal, I suggest you table those pipe dreams immediately.

But there is one scenario for a Hosmer extension that maintains plausibility, and it doesn’t even involve placing the severed head of a favored show horse at the foot of his (or Boras’) bed. First let’s consider the words of the man himself. The Kansas City Star’s own Sam Mellinger wrote a recent piece discussing Hosmer’s willingness to sign a contract with the team in which Hosmer “absolutely” left open the possibility of extending his stay in KC.

Obviously, there’s not a salt shaker in the world  large enough to hold all the grains you’ll need to take Hosmer’s statement with. But it’s certainly not a bad sign. If Hosmer is indeed open to the notion of re-upping with the Royals, then the next logical question is this: What qualifies for an offer that Hosmer (and his agents) can’t refuse?

It depends on how much you think Hosmer can earn in his peak arbitration years. The first year arbitration salary record for batters belongs to the 2007 version of Ryan Howard, who at 27 years old won his arbitration case to earn a $10 million salary. Of course, Howard was otherworldly in 2006, coming off a campaign in which he hit 58 home runs and won the National League MVP. I’m merely showing where the ceiling is.

And in order to sign Hosmer now, the Royals will be forced closer to the ceiling than they likely feel comfortable with. By the second year of arbitration, many teams are signing their budding superstars to lucrative extensions and/or buying out arbitration years. Howard earned an extension and a $15 million salary before his second year of arbitration. Miguel Cabrera, in his own second year of arbitration eligibility, signed an extension that paid him $11.2 million that season.

These are just examples to illustrate what the top arbitration eligible players are worth. Ryan Howard earned $44 million during (what would have been) his three arbitration eligible seasons. That’s the bar. Hosmer’s case, however, is a different animal. He is on pace to be eligible for arbitration in 2014, when he’ll still only be 24 years old. His potential is still not fully realized. Conversely, Howard was already in his late twenties when he hit arbitration. And he had already (very likely) played his best professional season.

So who is a better comparison for Hosmer’s career arc? I’ll give you a clue: it’s someone currently making a boatload of money. Check out this comparison of slash lines (batting average/On-base percentage/slugging percentage) between Hosmer and “Player A” during his first full big league season:

Hosmer (age 21) : .293/.334/.465 for a .799 OPS

Player A (age 23): .290/.340/.469 for a .799 OPS

Nearly identical, right? For further comparison, here’s what Player A put up in his second full big league season, versus Hosmer’s ZiPS projections for 2012.

Hosmer (age 22): .304/.354/.474 for an .828 OPS

Player A (age 24): .297/.352/.490 for an .842 OPS

Again, pretty darn close here. Player A is slightly more productive, but he is also two years older than Hosmer. Furthermore, would anybody really be surprised if Hosmer ended up matching Player A’s age 24 production in 2012?

After that aforementioned age 24 season, Player A avoided his first two seasons of arbitration by signing a two year, $11.1 million contract extension with Los Angeles Dodgers. Player A’s name is Matt Kemp, the same guy who signed an 8 year, $160 million extension after the 2011 season.

Granted, Kemp squeezed an MVP caliber season in between his age 24 season and his massive extension this off-season. But he also squeezed in a 2010 that saw him put up a mediocre .760 OPS as a 25-year old.  It goes to show that elite talents don’t necessarily have to be perfect to earn massive contracts; they just have to keep showing flashes of that awe-inspiring potential. Barring injury, Hosmer seems a relative lock to keep doing that.

With these comparisons considered, and considering the reality that Hosmer will have to be knocked off his feet to sign a long-term extension, I’ve devised my official offer. To make it worth the investment, I’ll need to purchase at least one of Hosmer’s free agent seasons and hold a team option for another. Because this this a “Godfather” offer that Hosmer simply can’t refuse, the numbers may seem high. But the deal is designed that way intentionally. This contract offer is a message to fans, a token of the front office’s determination to field a winner for the city of Kansas City, even if it means negotiating with Scott Boras.

The offer breaks down as such:

6 years, $59.9 million with a 7th year option at $20 million. If exercised, the contract becomes a 7 year, $79.9 million deal that locks Hosmer up until his age 29 season, when he will still be able to secure a second major payday. Here’s how the figures would break down.

• 2012: 1.3 million
• 2013: 4.3 million
• 2014: 8 million
• 2015: 11.8 million
• 2016: 16.5 million
• 2017: 18 million
• 2018: 20 million

There are a couple of things to be gained from making this kind of enormous offer. First, if Hosmer doesn’t take that deal, then he really doesn’t want to be here. By turning that offer away, Hosmer will effectively signal the front office that they should pursue other pieces of their young core and work out a plan to trade him at peak value. Secondly, a “Godfather” offer like this is a smash hit with fans: a  win-win proposition. On one end, you could have Eric Hosmer signing a long-term extension that buys out two years of free agency. On the other end, fans see that the team is serious about building around their talented young core, and the culpability for not locking up a young star will shift from the team’s shoulders to those of agent Scott Boras.

In all honesty, though, Hosmer should definitely take that deal. I crafted it based off the 7 year, $80 million contract extension Rockies outfielder Carlos Gonzalez signed to avoid arbitration after his monster 2010 (.336/.376/.596), when he won the Gold Glove and Silver Slugger awards. Hosmer’s contract value would fall only $100,000 short of Gonzalez’ haul from the Rockies, which is no coincidence. Gonzalez is a Boras client as well, and I wouldn’t want to disturb the pecking order of his client list.

If you think that Gonzalez is too good to serve as a comp for Hosmer, then I suggest you delve a bit deeper into each player’s statistics. Actually, check that, I won’t even make you do the work. Carlos Gonzalez plays at a hitter’s haven in Coors Field, while Hosmer plays in the pitching mecca (at least for the opposition) of Kauffman Stadium. So let’s use their road splits from 2011 as a comparison.

Hosmer (age 21): .270/.308/.486 for an OPS of .793*

Gonzalez (age 25): .252/.317/.440 for an OPS of .757

*Did you realize that Hosmer hit 16 of his 19 home runs last year on the road? I knew Kauffman was a pitcher’s park, but I didn’t realize it was such a desolate wasteland for power hitters. Makes me wonder if the woeful franchise record of 36 home runs will really be broken in the near future. Steve Balboni must be smiling triumphantly right now.

Gonzalez is an excellent player, one of the top 20 hitters in the game, but is his ceiling so much higher than a 22-year old Eric Hosmer? I’m not sure about that.

Would Hosmer (and Boras) accept the aforementioned extension offer? Can they possibly refuse $79.9 million? Not if I’m the one delivering the package. I don’t take no for an answer.

What do you think?

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Bruce Chen has become the latest Royal to pick up Twitter. Jesse Johnson-US PRESSWIRE

Bruce Chen just joined Twitter at the behest of Nick Wright at 610 Sports, and if you’re on the social networking site, you realize it has caused quite the wave within Royal Nation.

If you’re not on Twitter, well then, you’re missing out. After witnessing the uproar of approval caused by Chen’s introduction to the Twitterverse, a single impenetrable thought occurred to me.

If you call yourself a Royals fan, then you have to be on Twitter.

There’s no way around it anymore. Sure it was fun to be a Twitter hater for a while, to bemoan the impending death of the English language, to condemn this social media as yet another source of mindless rot.

Trust me, I know the arguments. I am a recovering Twitter hater myself. But when I finally dropped the preconceived notions and gave it a real chance, I realized all that I had been missing.

Sure, Twitter can be like a gossip site. But it can also be like a news wire.

There is so much access, such an incredible archive of information, that it’s impossible to soak it all in. I follow athletes, sports writers, comedians, actors, friends, and colleagues.

Before you say “I don’t care to know what everybody in the world had for lunch” or something to that effect,  consider the reality of the situation. These people who you’ve chosen to follow, at your own discretion and based off your own interests, are often tweeting news articles, poignant or funny videos, pictures, and observations. The fact that they also tweet what they ate for lunch is merely a bonus.

As I alluded to earlier, The Kansas City Royals have a strong presence on Twitter. The Royals figure to have among the youngest teams in baseball, so that’s no surprise. But with a strong local media contingent in Surprise, Arizona for the opening of spring training, the fodder has been especially rich.

I know that ultimately, my words alone can’t convince you of the relevance of Twitter. That’s why I’ve compiled the following list of the ten best tweets to come out of camp in Surprise. Don’t worry, I’ll also provide context when necessary. I’ve also attached the players’ (and organization’s) Twitter handles in parentheses for your reference.

10. Fox Sports KC (FSKansasCity):

Sights & sounds from #Royals camp: Danny Duffy messes w/ Everett Teaford during a clubhouse interview: http://youtu.be/WECcGrrBYJU.

For this tweet, you really need to watch the accompanying video. It’s a short bit, but I think it says something about the clubhouse chemistry. Teaford is giving a straight-faced interview response about starters going deep into games when an off-camera Danny Duffy starts messing with him. Teaford doesn’t skip a beat, delivers some quality deadpan humor, and the scene seemed to bode well for clubhouse chemistry. Nothing earth shattering, but a fun little video.

9. Wil Myers (@wilmyers):

#MLB camp has been a great experience so far. Tons of talent in this organization and working hard to help contribute!

You have to like the attitude Myers has taken in MLB Spring Training. He’s almost a mortal lock to start in Omaha, but it’s still nice to see him saying the right things coming off his success in the Arizona Fall League. All signs point to him being a fast riser this season.

8. Joel Goldberg (@goldbergkc):

(1) Just chatted w/Sal Perez. Says he called his mom, Yilda Diaz last night and told her to get a water and sit down” (2) Told her about contract and his mom cried. Says they talked on phone for three hours and neither slept much last night.”

This is just a cool anecdote that Fox Sports KC’s Goldberg  was able to parlay directly to his followers, albeit in two separate tweets. There was frankly a lot to like with the Perez contract from the Royals’ perspective, so it’s nice to see that the security of the deal is a game-changer for Sal as well. Goldberg provides his Twitter followers with some nice emotional context from Perez, and it helps explain why Perez agreed to the deal. For fans, it’s a win-win of information and emotional pull.

7. Eric Hosmer (@hos3kc):

If you were absent during our struggles don’t expect to be present during our success #ourtime

Kings of Kaufman’s Brett Christie wrote a piece about the Hosmer tweet earlier this week that summed up the importance of this one. Hosmer has obviously embraced this season’s slogan of “Our Time”, and that is a good thing. One of the pitfalls of Twitter, however, is that the 140-character limit on tweets can sometimes leave a contextual void. Hosmer’s comment caused a brief stir, although he later apologized (via Twitter) and said he didn’t mean the tweet as a knock on fans.

6. Robert Ford (raford3):

Danny Duffy’s delivery definitely looks smoother & easier to repeat. Doing a good job of keeping the ball down #Royals

Here’s an example of the raw information that can be obtained through Twitter. Robert Ford provides excellent analysis for 610 Sports, and he is definitely worth a follow. I had been hoping that the mechanical adjustments Duffy has been explaining in his various media interviews was something tangible, and Ford’s observation here seems to back Duffy up. For a guy with as much talent as Duffy, a smooth, repeatable delivery could turn him into a star sooner rather than later.

5. Everett Teaford (@teaparty61):

How do I know I am uninteresting? @ChenMusic has more followers then me in less time then 1 practice!

Everett Teaford has a great sense of humor, so this tweet was in good taste. And it was true. Chen’s followers skyrocketed after his introduction to Twitter. I guess I also like the notion of Royals players competing for Twitter followers. It seems like a friendly competition between the guys, and as far as I’m concerned it harmless fun. Plus, only one practice for Chen to surpass Teaford? His Twitter potential might be greater than I had previously suspected.

4. Bruce Chen (@chenmusic):

(1) “This is my first tweet ever! (2) “Does this mean that I lost my tweetirginity?

Bruce Chen’s first tweets simply had to be included in this list. Chen has long been a fun personality inside the locker room and possesses considerable Twitter potential. The story of how Nick Wright (@getnickwright) convinced Chen to join is also worth telling, and it can be found easily on Wright’s previously linked Twitter feed. Just saying.

3. -Danny Duffy (dduffkc23):

Bury me a Royal

Here is an example of the simple beauty of Twitter. Duffy is another player who has wholly embraced the “Our Time” mentality, and it has been fun to watch. His enthusiasm for this season just seems infectious.

2. Aaron Crow (@acrow43):

I would give anything to go back to college and have to opportunity to pitch against ku tomorrow and shove it up their @$$

As a KU alum, I can say without remorse that this was a classic tweet. There was some pure emotion in there, and he showed ingenuity and creativity with his use of the dollar signs. In the afterglow of Kansas’ incredible come from behind overtime victory over Mizzou, the emotions were understandable.

1. Sam Mellinger (@mellinger):

Overheard before today’s intrasquad, from @Hos3KC to @ChenMusic: “Gimme a first-pitch fastball and I’ll mention you on Twitter. #Royals

This tweet essentially encompasses everything I like about Twitter. Mellinger heard some playful banter that wasn’t going to be the center piece of a column and offered it up to Twitter. It’s a legitimately funny line from Hosmer, who is playing off Chen’s new-found presence on Twitter as well as his own soaring popularity. Everyone just seems excited to play baseball. As a fan, It’s a perfect piece of information to digest on Twitter.

So what are you waiting for?

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Mike Sweeney knows a thing or two about being in the best shape of his life. Kim Klement-US PRESSWIRE

You hear it every year.

Some aging or oft-injured player shows up at Spring Training and proudly declares that they are in the best shape of their life. They say they’ve dropped some weight, or stopped eating fast food, maybe hired a chef or personal trainer.

It’s an annual rite of passage that (aging and oft-injured) former Royal Mike Sweeney perfected in the spring of 2007 with his revelation that yoga* had “paid big dividends” for him in the off-season. At the time it was a ray of hope for Royals fans who had seen Sweeney labor for years with an unforgiving back. But as is often the case, it was a mirage.

*Another classic nugget from that yoga article: Buddy Bell’s spring training assertion that Sweeney would be plugged in as the every day clean-up hitter behind, wait for it, 2006 franchise home run leader Mark Teahen. Sweeney ultimately played less than half the season due to injury and hit only seven home runs. Teahen played the whole season and also hit only seven home runs. Makes you appreciate Eric Hosmer, no?

The “best shape of my life” routine has become such a popular spring training cliche that it has (naturally) inspired its own internet meme. Maybe it’s just something about the hopeful nature of spring training. Maybe it’s the thin Arizona air. Regardless, something about the spring inspires a certain delusional hyperbole that affects both players and fans alike.

I’m not immune. I buy into the hype*. After all, how could yoga not provide increased flexibility for Mike Sweeney’s woeful back?

*Maybe I’m just a hapless writer with an exercise regimen that even Bartolo Colon considers lax, but if I could only get in touch with Manny Ramirez‘s fertility doctor, jet over to Germany for a controversial blood spinning procedure, and show up for the first day of spring training, I just might be in the best shape of my life too.

So when the Kansas City Star’s Bob Dutton reported that current Royals Mike Moustakas and Billy Butler had shown up to camp in terrific shape, I immediately began daydreaming excitedly about the possibilities. Here’s the choice quote from manager Ned Yost, who may or may not have giggled gleefully immediately after delivering it.

“There are a ton of position players here, too. Billy Butler and Mike Moustakas — I’m extremely proud of both of those guys. They are in the best shape they’ve been in their career. Billy looks great, and I hardly recognized Moose, he looks so good.”

First, let’s consider Butler. He has been the most consistent player on the team for three consecutive seasons, yet somehow seems to leave fans wanting more. It’s early in the spring, but gushing quotes like “best shape” and  “Billy looks great” bode well for turning 2012 into a career year. In a recent interview with Robert Ford at 610 Sports in Kansas City, Butler sounded bound and determined to make this season his best yet. In listening to the interview, I couldn’t help but think that Butler sounded mature for a 25-year old. It’s exactly what we’ve all wanted to see from him.

Butler needed to come into camp ready to go, especially after he spent parts of the off-season as the subject of internet trade speculation. Although nothing ultimately happened, and the front office never seemed especially close to making a move, it’s worth wondering whether the trade rumors had any impact on Butler’s decision to come into spring training sporting a more svelte physique.  Regardless of motivation, I’m just happy to see Butler looking trim at the start of camp. My overactive imagination can already envision Butler legging out triples and providing a serviceable backup at first base.

As for Moustakas, he was already a guy who was expected to make big strides in 2012 after a roller-coaster 2011. But when he showed up for camp 10-15 pounds lighter after a season spent focusing on conditioning and lateral movement at third base, the Royals brass must have been impressed. Nothing is better for a young team than for its young team leaders to seize the role as the hardest workers, and Moustakas seems to understand that. It’s another example of a player who is mature beyond his years. Moustakas is not interested in beginning this season with another prolonged cold spell, and he’s willing to whatever is necessary to avoid such a pitfall.

All of this determination, all of this potential, all of this pride and confidence, it’s an amazing feeling for Royals fans. After so many years of spending these hopeful February and March days talking ourselves into an inferior product, there is finally reason for fledgling optimism in Royal Nation. It’s a unique place for Royals fans of my ilk, who have never even been alive when a Royals team made the playoffs.

Most years, I try to convince myself that “this is the year” for the Royals to turn the corner. The logic is always flawed, and the basis for optimism wobbly. A case for the Royals to compete was always a hollow argument.

But this year is different. When I have delivered my annual argument for why the Royals can compete, it feels measured. Reasonable. Real. Today the Kansas City Royals are in the best shape I’ve seen them in my lifetime.

It feels good to say that with a straight face.

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Royals manager Ned Yost is now under contract with the team through 2013. Rick Osentoski-US PRESSWIRE

Now, before you go into hysterics over the announcement (one way or the other), keep in mind that the move is a common one for manager’s entering the final year of the contract. The generally regurgitated narrative is that a manager cannot exert sufficient control or discipline over his players while his own contract status is up in the air. The argument makes some sense, especially considering that some star players make ten times the annual salary of their manager. If a manager does not have a commitment beyond the current season, then he is essentially on the hot seat.

The scenario is akin to an impending free agent. With no commitment from his current team, that player is usually in full “me” mode, out to prove their worth to every other team in the league during their walk year. Likewise, when a manager operates without that security blanket, it is easy for them to lose focus of the long haul and adopt a win-now philosophy in a desperate attempt to either earn an extension or spruce up their attractiveness to rival clubs.

If you don’t believe me, just ask Jim Riggleman, who quit mid-season in 2011 because he wasn’t under contract for 2012.

So Ned Yost got his security blanket today. But that thin veil of security should not be mistaken for a ringing endorsement. Without a mid-season extension, he will be right back in the same position next off-season.

The Royals front office clearly wants to see what Yost will do with a full season of Eric Hosmer, Mike Moustakas, Salvador Perez, Johnny Giavotella, and the rest of Kansas City’s much-publicized youthful core. 2010 and 2011 were simply preparation for this season, when Dayton Moore and Co. expect tangible improvement, i.e., a boost in the standings.

2012 is a test. Moore could have eliminated the option and given Yost a contract extension, ensuring his continued employment for years to come. But he( justifiably) didn’t.

I know it’s hard to think of Yost being on the hot seat on the day that his option was exercised. But that is exactly where he will be if this 2012 season does not end as magically as we all hope it will.

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The Royals hope to celebrate often in 2012. Denny Medley-US PRESSWIRE

Royals fans are infatuated with the 2012 incarnation of their favorite team, and rightfully so. Simply looking at the roster full of top young prospects makes me want to re-enact a patented Royals game-winning mosh pit from last year*.

*I love that walk-0ff celebration photo. The first thing I noticed about this photo to the right was Joakim Soria soaring approximately eight feet off the ground like a frog jumping lily pads. But then I noticed something even better: Eric Hosmer in the middle of the pile, being swarmed like a superhero that requires ten mere mortals to subdue.

But we already know what Royals Nation thinks about this team. Their (my) eager anticipation is palpable. We see the Process taking shaped and fully expect the Royals spend a healthy portion of the summer in contention.

However, there are better sources for unbiased prognostication than a group of unrepentant homers. In fact, there is even a “best” source. Vegas.

The sports books of Las Vegas have the most to lose from their prognostications, which means that they’ve undoubtedly hired the best in the world to handle the job. The Kansas City Star’s Rustin Dodd published some 2012 lines on the Ball Star blog this week, and correctly pointed out that the Royals are still considered long-shots to win in 2012.

But my curiosity immediately led me to wonder what those odds meant, especially in terms of wins and losses. So I went to sportsbook.com and decided to break down the odds on the three Royals-related future propositions.

1. Royals 30/1 odds to win the World Series

The Royals are given 30 to 1 odds to win the World Series in 2012, which even in my estimation seems a bit optimistic. They are lumped with five other teams (Marlins, Cubs, Dodgers, Nationals, and Brewers) with the 13th best odds. Those preceding five teams combined to post a 401-407 record last season, good for a .496 winning percentage or (roughly) an average finish of 80-82.

Of course a lot has changed since way back in 2011. The Brewers lost Prince Fielder, the Nationals acquired Gio Gonzalez and Edwin Jackson (and Rick Ankiel! and Mark Teahen!), The Marlins picked up Jose Reyes, Mark Buehrle, and Heath Bell, the Dodgers are all set to remove the suffocating albatross that was Frank McCourt from their around necks, and the Cubs, well, the Cubs re-signed Kerry Wood.

If anything, overall, it looks like the group has gotten a bit better. The Royals sit with relatively impressive company.

The 30/1 odds also place the Royals somewhere between the 13th and 18th best teams in baseball. In 2011, the 13th best team was the Los Angeles Dodgers, who finished with an 82-79 record. The 18th best teams were the Chicago White Sox and the Cincinnati Reds, who both finished with 79-83 records.

Sure I’m only looking at one sports book, but I’ll gladly cling to the narrative that Vegas expects the Royals to be around a .500 team next season. In fact I intend to take that expectation as gospel.

2. Royals 15/1 to Win the American League Pennant

All five teams that the Royals share World Series odds with are in the National League. But they will really be judged by their contemporaries in the American League.

As you can see, the Royals are considered 15 to 1 odds to win the AL. That figure puts the Royals comfortably between the Tampa Bay Rays (15/2) and the Toronto Blue Jays (20/1) among American League hopefuls, and positions them as considerable favorites over fellow AL Central  rivals Cleveland (30/1), Chicago (40/1), and Minnesota (40/1).

The odds also indicate that the Royals are expected to be the 7th best team in the American League this year. What exactly does that mean? It means that they are looking a .500 record right in the eyes. In 2011, the 7th best team in the American League was the Blue Jays, whose overall record was 81-81.

Their status as the prognosticated runner-up in the AL Central is noteworthy as well. Cleveland, in particular, is a surprise. The Indians finished with an 80-82 record and picked up Ubaldo Jimenez in a deadline deal last season. They also acquired Derek Lowe and the immortal Roberto Hernandez Heredia, who both looks and pitches just like Fausto Carmona, only three years older.

Nevertheless, it’s good to see that the affable members of Royals Nation aren’t only ones predicting the Royals will outplay every team in the division who doesn’t start Miguel Cabrera and Prince Fielder.

3. Eric Hosmer 50/1 to Lead the Majors in Home Runs

While we’re looking at the lines, I’d be remiss if I didn’t highlight Hosmer’s perceived chances of leading the major leagues in home runs. He is considered to be the 25th most likely candidate to accomplish the feat, as he’s tied with the Angels’ Mark Trumbo with his 50 to 1 odds.

Last season the 25th best home run hitter in the major leagues cracked 29 jacks. His name was David Ortiz, and he ended 2011 with a .953 OPS. His name was also Joey Votto, who put up a robust .947 OPS to go with his 29 homers. And also Nelson Cruz, who got his 29 long balls in only 475 at bats, and went on to hit another eight home runs in the playoffs. In the interest of full disclosure, his name was also Josh Willingham and Mark Trumbo. Either way, I like the idea of Eric Hosmer hitting 29 home runs in 2012.

Sure, it would be fair to argue that this whole endeavor has been wildly unscientific. Based on the fact that I only looked at one source, you would be right. But there are still a couple weeks to go until spring training begins and this seems like relatively hopeful news. If nothing else just consider it more vindication for that gut feeling you probably already have. So let’s just kick back and take a moment to think about Eric Hosmer, with the help of a few breaks and some stiff breezes to right center field, making a certifiable September run at Steve Balboni’s epic franchise home run record while playing on a .500 team.

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Danny Duffy impressed last year as a non-roster invitee and was soon in the big leagues. Kyle Terada-US PRESSWIRE

The Royals released their list of spring training non-roster invitees last week, and as usual the list is filled equally with promising young prospects and replacement level bargains. Many won’t make an impact on the 2012 Royals, but nonetheless it is an opportunity to impress the front office brass. A strong showing as a non-roster invitee can put a top prospect on the fast track.

Non-roster invitees are intriguing because they are all upside. Even established major leaguers who find themselves signed as non-roster invitees are promised nothing but an opportunity. There is nothing to lose, but everything to gain.

For instance, the Royals brought in 23 non-roster invitees in 2011, and only Tim Collins and Louis Coleman made the opening day roster. But they weren’t the only players who made an impression.

Fellow non-roster invitees Eric Hosmer, Mike Moustakas, Danny Duffy, Salvador Perez, Johnny Giavotella, and Luis Mendoza eventually played games for the Royals last year. Several other prospects, including Mike Montgomery, impressed as well.

So, you must be thinking, which non-roster invitees have the best chance to make an impact in 2012? How thoughtful of you to ask. I’ve put together my list, ranking each invitee from most to least likely to have an MLB impact this year. I’ll also give percentage odds for each player, in order to show which guys have earned the greatest share of my confidence in their ability to help this year’s Kansas City Royals.

What could be more scintillating than that?

Mike Montgomery – 85%

I’ve already given my thoughts on Montgomery here, so I’ll try to keep this short and sweet. Not only do I think the Royals need Montgomery to produce for the big league club this year, but I also think he almost surely will impress. I expect Montgomery to follow Danny Duffy’s 2011 trajectory and earn a major-league call-up sometime in May. Montgomery simply doesn’t need another full season in Omaha, and he possesses superior raw stuff to Duffy. It’s also important to remember that Duffy’s leapfrog of Montgomery last season was a notable shock. Montgomery remains the better prospect with the better stuff, and I think he’ll have a campaign that’s slightly better than Duffy’s 2011. And this is coming from a guy who thought Duffy positively impressed last season. Montgomery is all set to be a gem.

Kevin Kouzmanoff – 60%

This is where the meaning of the word ‘impact’ becomes skewed a bit. I have no delusions of grandeur regarding Kouzmanoff. Although once a promising prospect, Kouz is essentially a replacement level player at this point (career .300 OBP). At the same time I think he has a fighter’s chance to make the 25 man roster (as a backup to Mike Moustakas at third base), and he very well may be the only person on this list who is able to make that claim.

In order to have an impact, a player actually has to suit up for the team. Whether through an inspired spring performance, injury, or inconsistency, I’m 60% confident that Kouzmanoff will play in 40 or more games for the Royals this season. If that becomes the case, then I am 95% confident that I will inevitably unleash a drunken, expletive-laden tirade against Kouzmanoff this summer when he is mired in a 0-21 spell and sporting a .285 OBP.

Wil Myers – 39%

Ok, hear me out here. Alex Gordon, Jeff Francouer, and Lorenzo Cain will be the starting outfield for the opening day Royals, barring injury. The next best available options appear to be Mitch Maier, Jarrod Dyson, and David Lough.  Each of those guys has their merits, but none of them are Wil Myers.

Here’s a question for you: why can’t Myers be this year’s version of Eric Hosmer? Myers is 21 years old, or to put it a different way, the same age Hosmer was at the beginning of last season. Myers also played last season at Northwest Arkansas, the same level Hosmer reached in 2010 before being placed on the fast track.

Wil Myers played in the Futures game last year, and could potentially play for the Royals this year. Jerry Lai-US PRESSWIRE

Like Hosmer in 2010, Myers dominated in the subsequent Arizona Fall League. Sure, his numbers don’t stack up with Hosmer’s Double-A figures. But Myers had some extenuating circumstances. He suffered a nasty knee injury after a fluky spill at the beginning of the season, and struggled to regain his form afterwards. But like Hosmer, the physical tools are still there: the quick bat, the plate discipline, and the rocket arm have not gone anywhere. Plus, Myers has already played twice as many games at Double-A as Hosmer did. The Royals moved Myers from catcher so that he could progress quickly through the system, and with a strong spring, I think they’ll give him the same chance Hosmer did to shoot through the system like a meteor. Furthermore, after last season, Myers has something to prove. I expect to see him with the Royals by the end of the season, even if it’s just for a cup of coffee.

Max Ramirez – 29%

Here’s a guy who I have had trouble deciding on. He should probably be placed further down this list, since he is ostensibly behind Salvador Perez, Brayan Pena, and Manny Pina on the depth chart. But he is a career .867 OPS hitter in the minor leagues. And since he’s played 646 games in the minors over eight seasons, I’d venture to say that his offensive numbers aren’t a mirage built on small sample size. That .867 OPS is 100 points better than Pena’s minor league total, and 200 points over what Pina has produced thus far.

I guess what I’m trying to say is, I would not be overly shocked if the Royals cut bait with Pena and Ramirez emerges as Perez’ backup this season. Keep in mind that Perez is young and fresh, and may not need more than 30 games off behind the dish this season. Wouldn’t it be nice to finally have some pop and patience at the catcher position? Even if Ramirez is utilized primarily as a pinch hitter, I see some value there. Oh, and while writing this piece, I learned that Ramirez’ given first name is Maximiliano. So there’s also that to inspire confidence.

Irving Falu – 26%

I know what the most cynical and sarcastic of fans will say here: “whenever you can get a 28 year old career minor leaguer with a .696 career OPS into the lineup you’ve got to seize the opportunity.” I know that’s what you’re thinking because it was exactly what I first thought upon seeing Falu’s name among the non-roster invitees. But then I realized that the primary backup infielders will probably be some combination of Kouzmanoff, Yuniesky Betancourt, and Chris Getz, and I suddenly began reconsidering Falu’s candidacy in earnest. And there are some things to like about Falu.

For instance, did you know that he’s recorded more walks than strikeouts during his minor league career? Or that he has logged games at all three outfield spots, second base, shortstop, and third base? Or that 2011 was his best statistical season? I’m not saying he’s a lock to contribute or anything, but I think assuming he’s still with the organization, that he’ll be the first middle infielder recalled if there is an injury. If that’s not a ringing endorsement then I don’t know what is.

Chris Dwyer – 25%

Hey, I’m not saying I’m banking on it, but I would not be shocked to see Dwyer make a couple of starts for the Royals in 2012. After pitching four games for Northwest Arkansas in 2010, Dwyer remained in Double-A for the entirety of 2011. Although he struggled during the first half, Dwyer turned it on in the second half and actually out-produced highly touted prospect Jake Odorizzi while both were toiling for Northwest Arkansas. Dwyer also has more strikeouts than walks in his career, so the stuff is there. If the front office believes that the second half Dwyer is the real version, then he could be a fast riser this season.

Zach Miner – 20%

Sure he doesn’t strike out anybody, and he is still working his way back from a major injury in 2010. I get that. But looking at Miner with squinted eyes, I also see that Miner has a 25-20 career record in the major leagues to accompany his 4.24 cumulative ERA. Once you see the other pitchers on this list, and their career major league experience, you’ll see why Miner is so high up this list.

Will Smith – 16%

Smith would probably be above Dwyer on this list if my intuition hadn’t led me to believe Dwyer will have a breakout season. Smith, though, did plenty well for himself at Northwest Arkansas in 2011. Smith put up a 13-9 record and a 3.85 ERA in a full season of Double-A, and was probably the best pitcher on NWA’s staff. Also going for Smith is the fact that he’s already pitched (albeit poorly) in Triple-A while in the Angels system. There’s no reason that Smith should go back to Northwest Arkansas next year, which means that he will be among the pitchers in Omaha with the best chance to get a late season or injury-induced call-up. I’d say that’s makes him about a 16% chance to make an impact on the big league club.

Jake Odorizzi – 7%

Odorizzi is clearly a year away, and that is not a bad thing. He got roughed up a little bit in his introduction to Double-A last year after torching High-A Wilmington. Odorizzi won’t turn 22 until March, so another season spent between Northwest Arkansas and Omaha could still be constructive for one of the organization’s top young prospects. There is still an outside chance that

Tony Abreu – 6%

I’m just not seeing it with Abreu. Give me Falu every day of the week. Abreu can’t hit and doesn’t walk. He owns a career .279 OBP. He should be purely minor league filler. Major league service time alone places him above the other names on this list.

Greg Golson – 5%

The best thing Golson has going for him is his versatility. He’s played all three outfield positions in the minors and possesses a enough speed to make him dangerous on the base paths. Unfortunately, I would be remiss if I didn’t mention that Golson has been struck out a whopping 941 times in his minor league career, against just 207 walks. Myers, Jarrod Dyson, and David Lough are simply better players than Golson and will get any call-up before him.

Cody Clark, Paulo Orlando, Tommy Hottovy, Francisley Bueno Julio Rodriguez – 0.00%

None of these guys has a chance to crack the big league roster in 2012. Frankly, their inclusion among the non-roster invitees seems a bit dubious. I’m not even going to sugarcoat it: when I saw Francisley Bueno’s name mentioned among the camp invites, I had no idea who he was. None at all. What is he doing at major league camp?

But I guess that’s the nature of non-roster invitees. There are no expectations. If Dayton Moore wants to bring in a guy whose name translates to “good”, then by all means he should be empowered to do so. And if Bueno somehow turns into Ricky Vaughn, then I will happily eat crow.

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(more…)

With that notion in mind, now seems as good a time as any to break down the 40 man roster and rank them in descending order. I’ll rank the roster based on my expectations for the 2012 season; it is my position that 2011 is old news and therefore will serve as a mere afterthought during this breakdown.

Enjoy.

Royals 40 Man Roster Rankings:

(more…)

What is Moustakas? It’s hard to say at this point. The 23 year old had a roller coaster 2011 that somewhat clouded his position as one of the brightest young prospects in the game. Let’s break down Moustakas’ 2011 month by month, and then see what can be gleaned from the figures.

April: Moustakas entered the year as the #9 ranked prospect in all of baseball, according to Baseball America. Coming off a season in which he hit 36 home runs with a .999 OPS over two minor league levels, that was not a shock. What was a shock, however, was how Moustakas began the season in Omaha. Remember, Moustakas was pegged as the team’s most MLB-ready prospect heading into 2011. Eric Hosmer was younger and considered farther away, a player who could potentially find his way to Kansas City by the end of the season.  But Moustakas was ready, ostensibly only in Omaha to delay his service clock.

But then April happened. Moustakas batted .229 in the month, while also sporting a .304 OBP. He recorded only six extra base hits. Even if the Royals wanted to call him up after April, they couldn’t have warranted it based on merit. Meanwhile, Hosmer was crushing Triple-A pitching to the tune of a .410 batting average and 1.027 OPS.

In just one short month, Moustakas had been leapfrogged.

Month of April Assessment: Bad.

May: May was an excellent bounce-back month for Moustakas, and was generally taken as a sign that his slow April was an anomaly. He looked like uber-prospect Mike Moustakas all over again. He hit five home runs and 11 doubles on his way to a .321 average and .942 OPS in May. He was back.

One narrative bandied about during this time was that Moustakas was motivated by the May 6 promotion of his friend Hosmer, and was now especially committed to joining him up in the majors. Ultimately, Royals fans didn’t care why Moustakas started raking in May. Maybe he was motivated by the promotion of Hosmer. Or maybe he was simply due. It was just nice to see Moustakas pounding the ball again.

Month of May Assessment: Excellent.

June: Moustakas played only seven games for Omaha in June before finally earning his much anticipated promotion to Kansas City. But once he made it to the majors, Moustakas was a mixed bag.

He took a walk in each of his first four games with the Royals, and ended the month with eight walks against nine strikeouts. His OBP was a healthy .354. Moustakas also looked steadier than expected in the field. There was one point of concern, however.

Moustakas was hitting for no power. I don’t mean that to say “less power than usual”. It means that Moustakas had just one extra base hit in the entire month, a home run in his second game with the team. He didn’t have a double or a triple all month. For Royals fans who’d been hearing about his light tower power for years, his performance was, well, bewildering. We had no idea what we were in for.

Month of June Assessment: Up and down.

July: On July 3rd Moustakas hit his first two major league doubles in a 16-8 win over the Rockies. He went 3 for 6 in the game, raising his average to .290, his OBP t0 .370, and his OPS to a respectable .734. In an up and down season, it looked like he was getting ready to take another glorious trip up to the peaks.

But then Moustakas went five games without a hit. After breaking that slide with a modest two-game hit streak, he went hitless for another five straight. Moustakas hit only six doubles in the month, and did not record a home run. He wasn’t swinging with authority, and he was letting pitchers control his at-bats. By the end of the month, Moustakas* had dipped below the dreaded Mendoza line: he was batting .199 with a .259 OBP and an almost unbelievable .258 slugging percentage.

*So the word ‘Moustakas’ has now shown up in this article on 24 different occasions, including in this very sentence. For now, I will maintain journalistic integrity and hold off on referring to him as a 1,500 pound beast with antlers. For now.

At this point he looked like he was in need of, gulp, the dreaded trip back down to Omaha for more “seasoning”.

Month of July Assessment: Especially awful.

August: At this point, Moustakas’ slump was getting painfully hard to watch. I still remember living and dying with each subsequent at-bat during the slump, cheering him on like a small child whenever he put a sting on the ball. I don’t know Moustakas personally, but I know his reputation as a competitor. It must have been brutal to suffer through such a difficult stretch.

On August 16, Moustakas was hitting .182 with a .237 OBP and a .227 slugging percentage on the season. He had two walks against 13 strikeouts for the month. And he still hadn’t hit a home run since June 11. If he had looked like he needed a trip to Omaha at the end of July, then he was long overdue now. After every game, I found myself bracing for the announcement of his demotion.

But on August 17th, Moustakas went 3 for 3 with a double. Something had finally clicked. The next day he got another hit in four at bats. The day after that, he went one for two with a double and a walk. That may not seem like much, but after essentially two months of incessant struggle, it was like the parting of the Red Sea for Royals fans.

Although Moustakas still didn’t break his home run drought in August, his aforementioned hitting outburst was the beginning of a 15 game hit streak that would raise his season batting average to .232 and his OPS to .576. He had finally turned the corner.

Month of August Assessment: Average, and that’s with bonus points for finishing strong.

September: Despite finishing off his 15 game hitting streak on September 1st, Moustakas was just beginning to catch fire.

He was otherworldly, actually faring better in September at the major-league level than he did during his time at Omaha. He put up a .352 batting average and a .960 OPS during the month. On September 8 Moustakas began another hitting streak, this one eleven games, and finally cured his power outage. After going more than three months without a single long ball, he hit home runs in three of four games from September 14 until September 17.

You could see the pressure melting off of Moustakas’ body. He seemed free, loose. And the numbers showed. Moustakas ended the season with a .263 average and .675 OPS, respectable numbers for a rookie. Combined with his above average defense and considering the fact that he dug himself out of a seemingly infinite hole, I call that a win.

Month of September Assessment: Superb.

So, Moustakas’ 2011 looked something like this, month by month: Bad, Excellent, Up and Down, Especially Awful, Average, and Superb. How’s that for variation? From what we saw last year, Moustakas should essentially be a wild card heading into 2012. He could potentially fall anywhere within the spectrum he occupied in 2011. For that reason, it should be an intriguing season. And now, for those of you who have stuck around this long, I suppose that I owe you my (wild and purely subjective) predictions for Moustakas this season.

Projected 2012 line for Mike Moustakas: .278/.337/.460 with 29 doubles, 17 home runs, and 76 RBI’s.

And if I had to choose, I’d say it’s more likely that he exceeds those figures than falls short of them. But that’s just my (wild and purely subjective) opinion, so take it for what it’s worth.

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From my perch here in Kansas City I want to gaze north to Omaha, where the Storm Chasers will once again be jam-packed with top flight prospects this season. Even with a horde of elite players making their way to the big leagues last season, Omaha will be looking to improve upon their stellar 2011 campaign (79-63 record, first place).

Before I begin the predictions, allow me a couple of ground rules. First, I will only include two set-up men and a closer for the bullpen. The rest is just too much of a crapshoot, and may include players not currently in the system. I’m also going to cheat a little bit and include six rotation candidates. One of the six will likely earn the role of the long reliever, and I’m not going to try to decipher that race. Also, only the starters on offense will be included. I’m not diving into the bench. There are too many options, too many variables, and, well, ultimately this is my list so I get to do what I want.

Hypothetically, I’d like to come back to this post as the season begins and judge these predictions. Surely, some (if not all) of my projected starters will not pan out, and it’s always fun to look back under the lenses hindsight and deride yourself for going all in on fool’s gold. There is also the (ever so slight) possibility that I nail the predictions and get the opportunity to write a self-congratulatory column about it while being showered in the confetti I bought for the occasion. Either way is a win in my book.
Without further ado…

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He first appeared in the majors 2008, when he posted a 0.87 ERA in 10 appearances for the Minnesota Twins. The next season was his best, as Mijares recorded a 2.34 ERA in 61.2 innings, while striking out 55. But that was the high water mark. Mjiares threw only 32.2 (albeit solid) innings in 201o, sporting a 3.31 ERA, and then saw his strikeout rate dip dramatically in 2011 at the same time that his ERA soared to 4.59.

All this to say that Mijares isn’t, and won’t be, a miracle worker. But there are reasons to believe that his addition will prove valuable.

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