The Rays have been the most disciplined team in the majors when it comes to holding prospects down in order to get extra years of service or avoid super two status.  That makes a move like bringing Odorizzi up look a little odd before June.  It could be taken that he is seen by them as a marginal starter at best, so they are not concerned about him reaching arbitration early.  So far this year he has okay, but not spectacular numbers in AAA.  Most evaluations I have ever seen on Jake have his ceiling as a middle to back of the rotation starter.  No reason to worry about $10 million arbitration deals, so super two and an extra year of arbitration are less costly.  If his service time is greater than Myers’, then it also makes it less likely that Wil is in the super two this year.

Another way to look at it is that the back end of the Rays rotation has been bad.  They are off to a rough start as a team (4.5 games back of NY and 4 behind Boston), and Odorizzi becomes their 4th best starter immediately.  Odorizzi realizing his potential now could be very valuable in helping Tampa Bay keep in the AL East hunt.  Wil Myers might be up already in that case except that he has not lit the world on fire in the minors.  A 28.3% K rate has lead to a .250 average and sub-400 slugging.  That is not how Myers hit last year, and Tampa Bay might think that the 22 year old needs some more time for development.

Either way this is an interesting and unexpected development.  No one was really planning on Odorizzi coming up and giving a lot of value to the Rays right away.  The talk of THE TRADE all hinged on Myers.  Also, Wade Davis having a hard time transitioning back into the rotation for the Royals could make  Odorizzi having success this year sting a bit.

First, let’s recall the Greinke bullpen move success.  He moved to the bullpen after leaving baseball for awhile and was quite good out of the pen for the Royals in 2007.  He went from a guy with a low 90s fastball to a mid 90s guy who could reach back and get a 97 or 98 when needed.  In 2008 when he headed back into the rotation, Greinke lost some of the velocity that he showed in the pen, which is to be expected, but his overall velocity was improved from his time before the switch.  Now his fastball was sitting 93 or so and he still showed the ability to go up and hit 96 or 97 at times.  Wade Davis showed the velocity gain in his transition to relief, but this year has not been able to maintain any of the gains when starting again.

The Fangraphs velocity chart may show something even worse.  Last year Davis’ fastball averaged 93.7 MPH, and toward the end of the year was sitting above 95 consistently.  This also lead to a massive spike in strike out rate from 5.14K/9 in 2011 to 11.13 last year.  Looking at this year, his velocity is back down to an average fastball just above 91 MPH.  That is his lowest average ever.  Now it does show that his velocity tends to tick up a bit as the season wears on as a starter and as a reliever, so maybe he will be 92 to 93 in the middle of summer.  If that happens though, that would be more in line with 2010 and 11 when he was a back of the rotation guy at best, and his strike out rate this year is showing the same sitting at 6.64 per 9.

There has been a major change to his pitch mix.  He has been using a cutter that he hadn’t thrown in the past.  Davis has thrown the cutter 16 to 19 percent of the time and so his two and four seam fastballs have been used a lot less.  None of his pitches have done very well based on pitch values and most of this comes from an increased line drive and home run rate.  One of the problems with the cutter, in my opinion anyway, is that it might make his change up less effective.  The speed differential between the two pitches is only about 2 MPH, 88 down to 86, so the batters may not be thrown off by the change at all.  Part of that might also be because his change has been on average 1 MPH faster than last year too.

For Davis to be effective like last year something is going to need to change.  Right now he looks way too much like the bad Wade Davis that Tampa Bay took out of their rotation and nothing like the good Wade Davis they had in their bullpen last year.  The answer is probably not as simple as getting away from the cutter, but that may be one place to start.  Hopefully as summer comes his velocity will come back as it has before and help some, but it would be nice to see him show some signs that the successes of 2012 in the pen can be moved into the starting role.

From the chart you can see that the Royals have mostly been scoring well above or well below their average.  With an average of slightly below four and a half and a fairly normal distribution you would expect the most common outcome of a game to be in the four or five run categories, the two closest to average.  That is not the case.  The most common out come is three runs or two runs, and six and nine have happened more often than four and five.  This is a pretty skewed distribution.

Last year the distribution did have some of the same characteristics if you look at the next chart, but there were a lot more four run games, and a maximum of 11, which the Royals have already matched and exceeded this year.  The five, six, and seven run games last year showed up more often than one or two run games, but so far this year they only equal the two run game total.  What this says to the optimist and statistician in me is that as our sample of games for 2013 grows, this distribution will become more normally distributed.  For that to happen it would mean a lot more four to seven run games in lieu of one to three run games.  Also, the Royals have a winning record (dead on their Pythagorean expectation to boot) despite all of the low scoring games, so this could indicate a lot of good to come.

First off, here are heat maps from baseballheatmaps.com of what Billy has been swinging at.  On top is April, and you can see he had a much smaller area of attack versus right handed pitchers.  He was only swinging heavily at pitches in the middle of the strike zone.  This expanded versus southpaws, but remained mostly strikes.  The last two weeks this has changed.  Against left handed pitchers he is swinging the most at pitches that are middle-away and avoiding the inside half of the plate.  Less power since he is not pulling inside pitches, which sounds a lot like Eric Hosmer right now as well.  On right handed pitchers he is swinging at inside and up in the zone, but nothing else.  Both heavy swing areas are smaller the last two weeks.  If you look at Billy’s Fangraphs page this shows up as well.

Butler is swinging at under 40% of pitches he sees for the first time in his career.  His rate is 38.8%, which is almost 4% lower than last year.  He is still swinging at a similar number of strikes, but his rate of swinging outside the zone is down.  This is consistent with him being pitched around some.  The pitch mix he is seeing from opposing pitchers looks about the same as last year.  Nothing in any of his rate stats jumps out as a red flag.

Then comes our old friend BABIP.  Billy’s balls in play average is .247, which is way below his career BABIP of .324, and I would love to point to this and say that he has been unlucky and all is well with the world.  The problem is that I don’t believe it is all luck driven.  I won’t say every team, though it seems that way, is shifting on Billy, but more often than not I have seen the short stop playing much closer to second base this year when Butler is up.  This has been noticeable on several occasions when he hits something hard up the middle and my brain says single only to be let down when the defender barely has to move to make the play.

Overall I’m not sure that anything looks “wrong” with Billy.  He has seen fewer strikes, but it hasn’t seemed to make him expand the strike zone, possibly the opposite in fact.  I would like to see him turn on the ball a little more, and he may need to just to try and move the defense to a more straight-up alignment.  Still, it mostly looks like Billy is still himself and just needs to adjust a bit to the shift.

The longest losing streak so far in 2013 belongs to the team that spent the most money in the off-season.  The Los Angeles Dodgers have wracked up 7 losses in a row, and have a chance to extend that number tonight.  Miami is a good opportunity for a win, but I believe in you LA.  They have not yet won a game this month.  They also have a 6 game losing streak.

All but two major league teams have lost at least three in a row, so the Royals are in good company.  Only the New York Yankees, who everyone was writing off before the season, and the Texas Rangers have not lost 3 in a row yet.  Maybe the Royals can hand the Yanks three in a row over the weekend since they are due.  There are six teams tied with the Royals with a longest streak of 3 (Baltimore, Boston, Colorado, Seattle, and St. Louis), so the Royals have managed to out perform 22 of the 30 teams so far in avoiding losing streaks.  Of the 3 in a row max club, the Royals, Orioles, and Cardinals have only one streak of three, while the Red Sox, Rockies, and Mariners have 2 streaks each.

The leaders for most streaks of 3 losses or more are, unsurprisingly, Miami with 6 such streaks and Houston with 5.

This may seem frivolous, but as I am sure most of you are aware, the Royals kind of have a habit of sustained losing streaks.  Avoiding them feels really good.  Last year the Royals had the brutal 12 game April losing streak and 10 streaks of 3 or more losses in total.  That is one and a third losing streaks per month.  We are over a month in with only one such streak so far, and it is of the shortest variety due to last night’s victory.

Jeremy established himself as a better than average starter beginning in 2007 at 28 years old.  Every year since then he has been a little above or a little below average without ever standing out.  Last year in Colorado he has his first really bad stretch, but he came to Kansas City and looked fantastic so that at the end of the year he had gotten back to slightly below average:

As you can see, this year has been different.  It is not all that likely that he will end up being 74% better than average for all of 2013 since that number is being skewed by his fantastic start on on Saturday.  Still, he was doing really well in the 5 prior starts as well.  The main difference for him this year has been a little better K rate, a career high ground ball rate, and some luck through low BABIP and high strand rate.  Even with the luck though, he has a career best xFIP and SIERA so far at 4.09 and 4.23, so even the metrics that try to strip out luck are showing a possibility that he is going to be better this year than he has in the past.  What if Guthrie has a career year?  I went and looked what that might look like, and what it might mean for the rest of his contract with the Royals.

The bar I set was a bit lower than that sparkling 174 ERA+ up there since I don’t think Guthrie can keep that up, so I looked for starting pitchers who put up 140 or more after the age of 30 for the first time.  There are quite a few players over the past 50 years who are in this group.  First I will talk about a chunk of the guys from a while ago, and then a look at two more recent players.

The first bunch includes Bob Purkey, Bob Veale, Dick Donovan, Elmer Dessens, Gil Heredia, Mike Morgan, Mike Scott, Rick Reed, Tom Candiotti, Vern Law, and Woody Williams.  If you wanted to hear that Guthrie could morph into an ace at this point of his career, I am going to have to disappoint you.  The guys who figure it out later and become dominant, think Cliff Lee or Randy Johnson, tend to have big breakouts in their late 20s.  This group should not make you uncomfortable about Guthrie’s prospects going forward though.  Most of them had 1 to 4 more decent years as a starter after their career year with a couple of them hanging around usefully until their early 40s.  Only Vern Law fell off a cliff.  He had a great year at 35 and then two bad years before

September 20, 2012; Kansas City, MO, USA; Kansas City Royals starting pitcher Jeremy Guthrie (33) gets the out on Chicago White Sox right fielder Alex Rios (51) trying to steal home in the third inning at Kauffman Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports

hanging it up.  If Guthrie can be really good for one year, and then give the Royals two more years as an average starting pitcher, then the contract given to him will have been well worth it.

Two more contemporary players really stuck out to me.  The first is Ryan Dempster.  His path is unlike all of the others due to his time in the bullpen.  He went back into the starting rotation at 31 and had a phenomenal year, and has been a consistently good starter since with only one down year in 2011.  A half decade of solid starting pitching.  The other guy is Ted Lilly.  Lilly came up a little younger than Guthrie, but didn’t really establish himself until his late 20s like Jeremy.  Then at 33 Lilly had a really nice year for the Cubs.  His next two seasons he was slightly above then slightly below average.  At 36 he was off to another good start last year before his arm gave out.  He tried to come back this year, but his two starts so far have not been promising.

All of this has made me hopeful for Guthrie’s time in KC.  There is no reason he can’t put together three solid seasons based on history, and we are only going to pay him $25 million for those years.  Typically you have to overspend in the free agent market, but in this case the Royals may have made a very valuable acquisition without needing to.  Of course, the early season returns from Guthrie could also be a mirage, but I really like how he has looked.

Last year the Royals rotation was a train wreck.  In descending order by number of starts there was Bruce Chen (34 starts), Luke Hochevar (32), Luis Mendoza (25), Will Smith (16), Jeremy Guthrie (14), Jonathan Sanchez (12), Felipe Paulino (7), Danny Duffy (6), Vin Mazzaro (6), Everett Teaford (5), Nathan Adcock (2), Jake Odorizzi (2), Ryan Verdugo (1).  That is 162 games of suck.  Granted, it would have looked significantly better had Duffy and Paulino not blown out their elbows, but they did.  This led to an average start length of 5.5 innings and a lot of bullpen work.

Only two of the names from last year’s parade of horrors are still a part of the rotation.  That has made Royals games a lot more watchable, and has pushed the innings per start number up to 6.3 innings so far this year.  The starter this year are averaging almost a full inning more per start, or an increase of a little over 14% better than last year.  That’s great, but when I am watching the games there is a pitch counter on the FSN broadcast and I feel like it is still trying to tell me something.  Last night was the worst of them, until the Royals finally got to Alex Cobb in the sixth.  At the end of 5 innings Cobb had thrown only 56 pitches (and only 88 when they pulled him), and despite our pitchers pitching pretty deep into games they still always seem to have higher pitch counts.

Pitchers for the opposing team have combined this year for an average start of just over 6 innings.  So, despite the improved rotation, impatient Royals hitters are giving most of the starting advantage back by failing to knock out the opposition.  If you go look at ESPN’s stats page (expanded batting) there are 99 qualified players right now and eight of them are Royals.  I ranked them all by pitcher per plate appearance, and we have three patient hitters on the team; Billy Butler at 4.13 P/PA(24^th),  Eric Hosmer at 4.11(26^th), and

Apr 30, 2013; Kansas City, MO, USA; Kansas City Royals left fielder Alex Gordon (4) breaks his bat while hitting in the sixth inning of the game against the Tampa Bay Rays at Kauffman Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports

Alex Gordon at 4.0(34^th).

Jeff Francoeur and Alcides Escobar are slightly below average in seeing pitches at 3.88 (54^th) and 3.84 (60^th) respectively.  That leaves four very impatient hitters.  Remember I am saying that the rest are impatient with respect to Frenchy.  Lorenzo Cain sees 3.62 (82^nd) pitches on average and right there with him is Salvador Perez at 3.56 (86^th).  Chris Getz would be slightly ahead of those two with a lackluster 3.68, but is not qualified right now.  That leaves the least patient hitter of the bunch, 90^th out of 99 qualified big leaguers this season, Mike Moustakas with a 3.48 P/PA.

This team is unlikely to get significantly better at seeing pitches.  I would love to see upgrades at second and right, but there is no guarantee that whoever took over those spots would be better.  All I know is that the opposing starters are getting deeper into games than I would like, and that the obsession with pitch counts makes running up the opponent’s count a very valuable tool.

One of the most important things the Big Game James brings to the table is the 7 innings per game that he is thrown.  Last year we got used to seeing Royal starter after Royal starter bounce in the 5^th and 6^th innings, or 3^rd inning for Jonathan Sanchez.  It is a lot more fun to look at the pitching match-ups each day and feel like the odds are in our favor.  Beyond lasting into games, there is a lot to like so far from Shields.  His 8.23K/9 and 2.31BB/9 are in line historically.  The strike out rate is down slightly from last year, but not in a way to be concerned about and last year was a career high.  These are typically the first thing I look at, and then I moved on to stats that might tell us about how lucky he has been so far.

April 20, 2013; Boston, MA USA; Kansas City Royals starting pitcher James Shields (33) walks to the dugout after pitching in the fourth inning against the Boston Red Sox at Fenway Park. Mandatory Credit: Bob DeChiara-USA TODAY Sports

LOB% looks normal, and BABIP was .284 and only slightly below expectation.  The only issue to count on going forward is that Shields will likely give up a few more home runs.  Right now he has a 6.1% HR/FB rate, which is unsustainable and should regress toward 11% over the course of the year.  This has led to a 0.51HR/9 which is about half of James’ historic rate.  So it looks like overall he has been just a bit lucky with batted balls in play and with fly balls staying in the park, but as you will see in a moment that even if those rates were normal, his expected performance would still have been very good.

So far Shields has an ERA of 3.09 and WHIP of 1.09, which is pretty great.  Even better though, the stats that try to correct for the luck issues look good too.  His FIP is 2.68, xFIP is 3.23, and SIERA is 3.40, so nothing about his performance to this point is pointing to major drop off.  What the stats are saying is that as the HR rates come back to normal we would expect his ERA to move up by only a tenth of a point or two.

Next I looked at his pitch mix to see if he is attacking hitters any differently than in past years.  It seems that he is using his cut fastball much more often than in he had any previous year, this being offset by fewer curves and change-ups.  The pitch values (runs above average by pitch type) say that his cutter has been his best pitch, so he or Salvador Perez calling the game seem to be managing the pitch selection well.

Finally, I went back to the PITCHf/x charts and ZONE% to see if the injury risks discussed  (see link to previous article above, link to Zimmerman’s article is in there if you don’t know what I am referring to) last year are still hanging around.

The velocity chart from Fangraphs shows no issues, and really wasn’t an issue last year, but is still nice to see.

James seems to be hitting the strike zone well.  Baseball Info Solutions has his ZONE% at 48.3% and PITCHf/x has it at 47.3%.  Both numbers are up significantly from last year.  The BIS number is in line with his 2010 and 2011 performances.  Prior to 2012 his PITCHf/x ZONE% were in the low 50s, so that is still slightly below historic rates, but not far enough off for me to be too concerned due to the increase from last year to this.

The horizontal release point was the last concern, and it still seems to move around horizontally more than I would like.  In the first four games especially this was true.  This chart is from yesterday though, and aside from a couple of pitches, the mass of points shows much more consistency.  I will continue to keep an eye on this, and hopefully the consistency will follow last game and continue to get better.

Overall James Shields has been a huge upgrade over any of the “Aces” the Royals have had leading their starting rotation for the last decade with the exception of Zack Greinke’s couple of good years.  This still hasn’t made me forget Wil Myers, but I have to admit that the success so far has dulled the pain a little.  Shields has been fun to watch, and has lived up to every expectation to this point.  So far, so good.

Chris Getz is 29 years old and will turn 30 before the end of this season.  He made his debut in the majors for the White Sox in 2008 for a cup of coffee and then got a half season in 2009.  The Royals traded for him in 2010 and have tried to make him a full time second baseman, but injuries have made than an impossibility with 118 games in the bigs as his high water mark.  Here is the thing though, nobody should really want him to play full time.  Last year Getz put up his best offensive year (.275/.312/.360) by having an okay average and below average on-base and power.  Fangraphs ranked him overall as the 41^st best at his position (by fWAR) in his BEST SEASON with even Irving Falu putting up more WAR in just 24 games, and the age almost guarantees he is not getting any better from this point forward.

On the other hand, Johnny Giavotella will turn 26 in July, which means he is about to enter his peak years of production.  Gio has been a consistent hitter at the minor league level.  His worst OPS was .731 as a 21 year old in Wilmington’s terrible hitting environment.  The consistent minor league numbers have not however translated to the major leagues.  His first shot in 2011 came at the end of the year and he managed a very Getzian 77 OPS+ over the last two months of the season.  2012 went even worse.

Last year second base should have been given to Gio at the beginning of the season regardless of which of these two was the better player in the eyes of the Royals.  No one expected the team to compete and the most value from second base would have been finding out if Johnny could handle the position at the MLB level.  That did not happen.  Instead they jerked him around all year and then said told you so and gave the job back to Getz again this year.  He didn’t make his big league debut in 2012 until May and he got about half of the starts in that month and hit .239/.300/.304, which is far from great but not untenable either since it looks almost exactly like Alex Gordon’s line in the same month.  In June he only got 7 starts, July none, back up in August with 11, and then finally in

September 19, 2012; Kansas City, MO, USA; Kansas City Royals second baseman Johnny Giavotella (9) reacts after losing his bat during a swing in the seventh inning of the game against the Chicago White Sox at Kauffman Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports

September he started almost every game and had his best month of the year.

Going into this year we all knew that Getz would be the starting second baseman despite the “competition” in spring.  Getzy can really work the leather according to Ned Yost, but his advanced stats don’t back that up.  In fact, he had a negative UZR last year.  I don’t tend to trust fielding stats so that is not the end all be all, but at no point have I seen him make really great plays either.  Nothing he has done has made me feel he is an elite defender who can make up for his bat with his defense.  Don’t get me wrong, I think Getz is better than Giavotella on the defensive side, but I don’t think the difference is all that significant.  Getz is average and Gio is a little below average, so I’d rather have the bat that might actually be able to produce at an above average rate.

Now the season has begun and everything is just as it has been.  Getz still can’t hit, his first home run as a Royal notwithstanding, and Gio is beating up AAA pitching again.  There is a chance that Johnny Giabotella is a quadruple A player who will never translate his minor league success into a valuable big league career.  Here’s the rub though, there is a chance that he will.  Chris Getz is what he is, a barely above replacement level, injury prone second baseman.  Why not start the guy who can be more?

The run environment of baseball has been a topic of conversation for several years.  Over time the number of runs per game has been dropping, and many people have speculated that this is due to things like increased PED testing or increased quality of pitching.  Whatever the reason(s), the last three years have seen this trend stagnate.

As you can see, the runs scored in 2010, 11, and 12 were basically identical per game in the American League.  So far this year the runs have been slightly less per game.  This is not surprising since run production tends to be suppressed due to things like cold weather early in the season.  The overall run production this year is down 3.9% per game from last year, so the Royals run production being down 4.1% from last year is right in line with the league drop.  This is not comforting in that it says the offense has not progressed, but I wanted to start by at least showing that it has not regressed before pressing on.

Another thing to pay attention to is who the Royals have faced.  Their overall strength of schedule is 12^th according to ESPN (last year they ended up at 17^th), so their schedule has been a little tougher than average.  Not only that, but over half their games have come against some pretty tough starting pitching (Chris Sale, Jake Peavy, Cole Hamels, R.A. Dickey, Brandon Morrow, Kris Medlen, Mike Minor, Clay Buchholz, and Ryan Dempster).  Don’t be surprised if the Detroit series does not help the offense bring its numbers up as they will add Max Scherzer, Justin Verlander, and Anibal Sanchez to the tally.  Tough competition and low scoring games sounds like playoff baseball, and so far the Royals are above .500 in that situation.  This to me is a good sign.

Now to the actual player performance and composition.  Due to Ned’s love of changing the line-up and two trips to National League parks it is hard to say what the typical starting 9 in order are, but roughly it is this:

Alex Gordon

Alcides Escobar

Billy Butler

Mike Moustakas

Lorenzo Cain

Eric Hosmer

Salvador Perez

Jeff Francoeur

Chris Getz

Only one of these players does not belong on any major league team as a starter, and my assumption is that Francoeur will get less playing time as the season goes on and more will go to Jarrod Dyson (or David Lough who is raking in Omaha).  Less Frenchy over time will help this offense.  Also, only one player is at a level that is unsustainably good, Lorenzo Cain, but I don’t expect him to fall off of a cliff, just come back to Earth.  That leaves two groups, those doing as expected and those under-performing.

The expected group includes Gordon, Escobar, and Getz.  Gordon might not continue quite at the level he is at, but he has produced at a similar clip for a whole season before.  His OPS+ is 141 and in 2011 his season OPS+ was 140, so he is at or only a tiny bit above what he should be.  Alcides is continuing what he did last year only with slightly more power.  If he develops a little above last year no one should be shocked as that is fairly common of 26 year old players.  Chris Getz is a mediocre hitter, and will probably continue to be a mediocre hitter.  His average will likely come up and his slug will likely come down with no discernible change in team performance due to him.  That is fine since he bats ninth.

Now the under-performers.  Billy Butler will be fine, and as he rises back to his level the offense will improve.  I would move Lorenzo

Apr 14, 2013; Kansas City, MO, USA; Kansas City Royals players Eric Hosmer (left) and Mike Moustakas (right) during batting practice before a game against the Toronto Blue Jays at Kauffman Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Peter G. Aiken-USA TODAY Sports

Cain behind him to try and keep pitchers from walking him so much, but either way this is not a concern.  That leaves the young guys.  Salvador Perez is the only one nobody has been vocally down on.  Sal is hitting .258/.269/.348, so I’m not sure why he has been ignored by those concerned, but whatever.  He is a stud defensively and I guess his last two partial seasons are enough that everyone is giving him the benefit of the doubt.  Hosmer and Moose on the other hand are struggling mightily and every Royals fan knows it.  There is more concern here due to their performances last year, Hosmer the entire 2012 campaign and Moustakas’ second half.

Eric Hosmer is doing poorly, but there are signs that he is going to get right because he is still getting on base.  The power is the major concern here.  Way too many ground balls and only one extra base hit, and only a double at that, are keeping his numbers from being okay.  I am still optimistic that he will have a decent season, especially since one good game, say a double and home run in the same day, would make everything look a lot better very quickly.

Mike Moustakas is another story.  His line, .158/.226/.193, is atrocious.  There is no sugar coating the results when you aren’t hitting, or getting base, or showing any power.  His past and age make me think that it is just a slump at a bad time, but that doesn’t mean I am not concerned about the short term.  Worst case scenario is that he needs a remedial session in AAA to get back on track if in a couple of weeks he is still looking this bad at the plate.  Gordon and Butler, among others, have had to do this sort of thing so don’t freak out if Moose gets sent down it does not mean he is never going to be any good.  There is no way that the final line for all third basemen ends up looking that bad by the end of the year, and up is really the only possible direction.

What I take from the players themselves is that there are a lot more players or positions to expect improvement from as the year goes on than there are expected regressions.  In other words, despite the struggles of a significant portion of the offense, this team has pretty much replicated last year’s offensive output.  This offense should therefore be better than last year’s once all 162 have been played.  We already know how much better the starting pitching has been, and should be expecting them to come backward a little bit due to a pretty fantastic start.  Hopefully as the starting pitching starts to find their level, which still should be pretty good, this offense can do the same and we can continue to watch good baseball.  Then come June we can start talking about trades and such to bolster any continuing weaknesses.

The main components to this are projecting the WAR values from each player for the contracts/player control time that was traded.  Then coming up with a discount rate, that would approximate the win inflation over the time period, to make sure wins this year are worth more than subsequent years.  The rest of it is just simple math.  As you can see I am not including Elliot Johnson, Mike Montgomery, or Patrick Leonardas I believe there value to the teams is either zero or close enough to zero that I can ignore

December 12, 2012; Kansas City, MO, USA; Kansas City Royals general manager Dayton Moore (left to right), newly acquired pitchers James Shields and Wade Davis, and manager Ned Yoast pose for photos after the press conference at Kauffman Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports

them.  I put James Shields down for two seasons similar to last year at 4 WAR each, and then zero from then on out since his contract will end.  Then I projected Wil Myers and Jake Odorizzi and played with what Wade Davis would have to do to make the trade somewhat even.  You can quibble a lot with these projections, but whatever they are, Davis is going to have to be pretty good to make this trade valuable for the Royals.  TWins are a sum of all WAR for the year for that side of the trade (Shields + Davis or Myers + Odorizzi), and DWins use the discount rate to present value the wins in terms of now.  As I go on I will be discussing how to make a model like this better since this one is pretty simple.

First, the projections need to be better.  I am pretty comfortable with Shields, but the others are much harder to project.  My preference would be to crowd source these win values to get expectations from multiple fan bases both biased and unbiased, but that would require me having a significant amount more power in the blogosphere.  In lieu of that I will probably need to go look at scouting expectations and then use aging curves for the three players who are younger and going to be around for a while.  Once you have those it is just a matter of setting a discount rate.  A win this year is more valuable than a win next year, and though you could argue for specific times and specific teams this could change a lot, I think this is still a good assumption.  How to set the actual discount rate could go several ways though.

You could try and set a league wide discount rate using win inflation, meaning look at what team payrolls are per WAR year over year recently, and then project an inflation rate from there.  This could be a good way to set the rate, but it is not what I was thinking.  You could also do this on a team by team basis since the Tampa Bay way won’t allow it to grow payroll at the same rate as the Dodgers or Yankees.  Personally, I would prefer to set inflation rates separately for the players.  The model above assumes one discount rate, consistent with a league-wide win inflation rate, but I think each player’s risk profile might give better results.  That way we could use what we know about the players to set the rate.  Prospects are riskier, so their discount rate should be higher than established big leaguers (we are more confident in what James Shields will be than the other three so his discount rate should be lower).  Also, pitchers should probably have a higher discount rate than position players due to higher injury risk and year to year variation.  Once you have done all this, a good estimate of each trading team’s expected present value of wins should be formulated, and then you move on to money.

One team or the other (or for multi-team trades you could compare more) is going to have an edge in WAR expectancy, but that is not the only factor.  Payroll should be used as well.  In the case of this trade the Royals have a lower win expectancy and took on more payroll with Shields’ contract, which is why most stat heads gave the clear victory to the Rays on the trade.  Anyway, that is an introduction to the method I would like to develop.  If you like it or have any questions or modifications I should consider let me know.

In his rookie season, we see that Hosmer swung mostly at inside pitches from lefties, and had a more center driven approach to right handed pitchers while still preferring inside over outside.  Against right handed pitchers he swung most at pitches up and across the middle.  The following year, which was a disaster, he swung a lot at pitches up above the strike zone again, and his swing rates on outside pitches increased.  This year so far, Eric has managed to reduce the number of pitches he is swinging at up above the strike zone.  In fact you can see the fatter blue portions, and green surrounding the strike zone pretty clearly.  Hosmer has managed to avoid swinging outside of the zone a lot in the early part of 2013.  His fangraphs page backs this up.  Eric’s baseball info solutions O-Swing% (% of the time swinging at pitches outside of the strike zone) is just 25.8% compared to 36.7 and 33.5 in 2011 and 2012 respectively.  The PITCHf/x O-Swing% shows a less drastic drop, but still the lowest of his career.

It seems that Hosmer is being a lot more picky this year when taking the bat off of his shoulder.  This has lead to a solid 12.8% walk rate.  The other thing that you can see on the heat maps is that the highest swing rates are middle/middle of the strike zone versus left and right handed pitchers.  He is swinging less at pitches on the inner half of the plate where he had been swinging a lot over the last two years.  At the same time he is swinging more at pitches low in the strike zone against righties, and not swinging at all at low pitches versus lefties.  Granted that might be a sample size issue.

There is still a lot of concern about Eric, and rightfully so, from the fan base.  Until he starts turning on mistakes and driving them into the stands we will all be a little bit nervous that he is destined to break our hearts.  These heat maps do make me a little more optimistic though.  If he can consistently swing at strikes and lay off of the high pitches out of the zone, it can only help him.  Also, if this is the effect of the hitting coach changes in the off season, then it may be showing better selection with better results to follow as he gets used to the adjustments that have been made.

Team batting has gone somewhat as expected in my opinion.  They are right in the middle of the pack in runs and the main concern is the lack of home runs and walks.  The usual pattern of recent years where they rank very well in average and significantly worse in OBP is still there, once again due to really low walk rates, but this year OBP is slightly higher than normal due mostly to avoiding strike outs.

Apr 14, 2013; Kansas City, MO, USA; Kansas City Royals center fielder Jarrod Dyson (1) slides into third base with a lead off triple against the Toronto Blue Jays during the third inning at Kauffman Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Peter G. Aiken-USA TODAY Sports

There is a very good sign that should not be ignored here.  Only two players have been good enough that I don’t think their rates are sustainable, Alex Gordon and Chris Getz.  If some of the struggling bats can start hitting a bit, mostly Alcides Escobar and Mike Moustakas but almost everyone else can do more too, then these ranks might be a little low come seasons end.  Both runs rank and WAR rank show a nice average offense, so growth would be welcome.  On to pitching:

That is beautiful, and not something we have seen as Royals fans in a long time.  Very high K rates and low walk rates are a very good way to be successful as a pitching staff.  The middle of the road home run rate has kept this from being a stellar beginning.  ERA is nearing top-5 status and the FIP and XFIP numbers back up the ERA so far.  My preseason belief once they set the rotation was that this was a slightly above average starting rotation and a fantastic bullpen.  This is a sustainable start from a rankings perspective.  I doubt Ervin Santana can keep being as good as he has been, but I also believe Wade Davis and Luis Mendoza can be quite a bit better.

The combined WAR total of pitching and hitting ranks 12^th in the majors, and that puts them right on the edge of contention with 10 teams making the playoffs.  Most of this does not look like unsustainable luck like 2003 was, so I am really starting to get excited about a long summer of meaningful baseball games.  It’s still far from a done deal that this team will contend, but the early returns are not hurting the preseason optimism.

First, and most obvious, are his peripherals.  The 9.6K per nine is probably not going to stay quite that high, but it is nice to see a lot of strike outs.  His career high in K/9 is 8.79 back in 2008, which was his career year.  To go along with that his walk rate so far is 1.3 per nine, which is also likely to come up toward normal over time but is also showing some solid command early.  These are nice, but most of my optimism is being derived from PITCHf/x of game 2, so let’s take a look at that.

The PITCHf/x data shows two really good indicators that Ervin is in good form for this year.  Velocity may be the most promising indicator.  Last year he saw a dip in his fastball velocity:

Mar 18, 2013; Surprise, AZ, USA; Kansas City Royals starting pitcher Ervin Santana (54) pitches during the fourth inning against the Texas Rangers at Surprise Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jake Roth-USA TODAY Sports

Then in the first game of 2013 his fastball averaged 90.1 and I have to admit I was a little nervous that either he was headed toward another injury or going to need to become a new pitcher.  It was only one start though, and sometimes velocity comes up a bit over the first few starts of the year.  In game two it certainly did in this case.  He posted an average velocity of 93.1, which matches his high annual average,  and his high watermark for velocity on July 21^st.  There is a big difference between last year’s and this year’s game though, in that last year when Ervin matched the 93.1 average velocity he only went an inning and two thirds, gave up 3 HRs, and was yanked.  This year he sustained it for 8 innings and only one run.

Another thing PITCHf/x showed that makes me excited is his slider movement.  The horizontal slider movement in game one for Ervin was 2.77, and then it jumped to 4.41 in game two.  Last year’s best slider article from Fangraphs will give you an idea of what a great slider looks like (Santana’s made the list at an average horizontal movement of 4.2).  His out pitch is in mid-season form.  This is leading to more strike outs, and a lot of optimism on my part.

Yes, Santana left a couple of balls up in the zone in the first inning yesterday that got tagged for singles.  He also got a little lucky that Justin Morneau hit one to dead center and came up a few feet short.  It was not a perfect outing yesterday, but Ervin is starting to look pretty good.  Improved velocity and a deadly out pitch are a nice combination.  Remember that this is a guy who was 6^th in the Cy Young vote back in 2008, so his best is pretty good.  I don’t expect him to be in the running for the Cy Young, but so far the early returns are pointing more toward Cy Young contention than the struggles of last year.

There are some pretty obvious differences to this team that have been beaten to death.  Mostly it boils down to a rotation at the beginning of the season where the pitcher who opened on the road and at home were not good enough to make the rotation.  Let me say that again in case it didn’t sink in.  Last year Bruce Chen and Luke Hochevar started opening day and the home opener and neither could crack the rotation this year.  That is a huge difference, setting aside the huge price paid to pull this feat off, and makes it significantly less likely that this team will fall apart for an extended period of time.  Better talent leads to good outcomes.  Usually this is the biggest thing that leads to winning.

Still, I felt like something else was contributing.  During the early part of the season last year when the team was in a double digit losing streak a deficit felt like a loss long before the 27th out was made.  This year the fans seem to still feel it, as 20+ years of conditioning has primed them to feel.  The team did not look like it felt that way at all though.  Batters were still approaching the game normally rather than flailing and striking out at ridiculous rates like they did when pressing last year.  Eventually this lead to runners, and then to a Country Breakfast slam (how has Denny’s not signed Billy to a deal yet?).  The bats did not roll over and die, they carried the day along with James Shields being perfect after the early problems.  Everyone pointed to a better rotation as a reason for optimism, and maybe that has carried over to the batters who now believe that they have a chance even when down four runs in the first.  Oh yeah, we just did this on Friday, down four, roar back and win it, no problem.

Apr 07, 2013; Philadelphia, PA, USA; Kansas City Royals right fielder Jeff Francoeur (21) celebrates defeating the Philadelphia Phillies at Citizens Bank Park. The Royals defeated the Phillies 9-8. Mandatory Credit: Howard Smith-USA TODAY Sports

The bullpen almost coughed it up and spoiled  everything.  That could be a point of concern, but should it be?  J.C. Gutierrez struggled, which we all are expecting.  No one thought he should make the team, outside of the Royals front office.  We didn’t get too worked up about it because it still the last bullpen spot, but there are options hanging out in Omaha to replace J.C.  This is not a concern going forward as he will be replaced given more struggles.  The second part is more concerning.  For the second time in as many days Greg Holland came in and struggled.  He was really, really good last year, and I would love to see him have another year like that, but if he doesn’t the Royals will be fine.  Bullpens vary a lot from year to year and one reliever having a down year is to be expected.  Herrera came in a bailed him out, Tim Collins was good again, and there is still Aaron Crow.  A down year from Holland will not sink this team, especially with guys like Donnie Joseph hanging out ready to get their shot.

The opening road trip was really uneven, but at the end of it I am very encouraged.  The offense scored 5 runs a game after two really bad games out of the gate.  The Royals ended up even, 3 and 3.  The rotation got off to a pretty darn good start mostly.  Is this team different?  Should we stop worrying about the inevitable collapse.  I believe the answers are yes to both of those questions.  My lifetime of Royals fandom keeps me from completely letting go of the worry of collapse, but this team feels different.  There is a long time to go to prove if my faith is misplaced, but for now I can’t wait for the game to start each and every day.

Only 303 seasons come back from Baseball-Reference (BR) if you look at pitcher seasons from 1901 to 2013 where a starter went 150 innings or more at a weight at or below 160 pounds.  How accurate the weight of the pitchers is, especially going back that far, is highly questionable, but that shows just how rare small starters are.  It has become even rare over time, and only 6 of those seasons have happened from 2000 until now, or only once every couple of years.

Last year 99 starting pitchers went 150+ innings according to BR.  The average weight of these 99 was 216.5 pounds, and the smallest was Tim Lincecum at 170 pounds.  In the current era starting pitchers are big.  Tall tends to be related to velocity, and big is associated with durability.  That has made projections of Ventura ending up in the bullpen fairly common.  Can the Royals really expect to start this youngster in the bigs, or is he just too little?

The good news is that Yordano does not seem to be as small this year.  I had heard reports that he had gained some weight, and now Fangraphs and BR have him listed at 178 and 180 pounds respectively.  Other places still have him significantly below this (Scoutingbook.com at 150), but it looks like he has gained something.  If it was 40 pounds it raises fitness questions that I would love someone who can get to a minor league game of his to answer (or it raises PED questions in this day and age).  That amount would take him out of small, and quickly into a weight range that is appropriate for a 5’11’’ frame.  His velocity is still huge, and reports of 102 MPH were given during the spring.  Yes, this would still put Yordano significantly below average for a starter as far as weight goes, but there are several sub-200 pound starters that have had success recently such as the aforementioned Lincecum, Wandy Rodriguez, and Cole Hamels.

If true, this weight gain should raise Yordano’s stock as a prospect.  Being able to start instead of relieve would be a huge boon to his overall value.  How quickly he can move to Omaha and start knocking on the door remains to be seen, but I would love to see a power arm like that in this rotation in the next couple of years.

Velocity was not an issue yesterday.  All of James’ pitches were in similar speed ranges to the last couple of years, or a tiny bit higher according to Fangraph’s PITCHf/x data.  It is good to see his velocity already here this early in the season.  Movement on the pitches looked mostly similar as well.  The fastball especially looked like it was similar as far as vertical and horizontal movement.  Of his three main pitches, only the cutter looked like it was moving a little bit less and two things could be contributing to that.  His overall speed of his cutter was a couple of miles per hour above last year yesterday, and it was a cold game which can affect the pitcher’s grip.  All looks good so far.  Let’s continue on to the injury risk factors from Zimmerman’s article a couple of months ago.

Feb 21, 2013; Surprise, AZ, USA; Kansas City Royals starting pitcher James Shields (33) poses for a picture during photo day at the Royals Spring Training Facility. Mandatory Credit: Jake Roth-USA TODAY Sports

Two concerns to look at here, release point movement and Zone%.  Per the aforementioned article, James’ Zone% from 2007 through 2011 was in the 51 to 52% range.  He was throwing the ball in the strike zone a little over half the time.  In 2012 that slipped to 45%, and an inability to throw strikes could indicate a problem.  Yesterday his PITCHf/x Zone% was 52, so back in line with the five years prior to last year.  That’s great, but over one game may not mean much.  The pitch release point had the same issues that were there last year.  His horizontal release point moved from -1.75 to 0, although most of the pitches are clustered around -1, if you look at a presumably healthy pitcher like Justin Verlander all of his pitches yesterday were between -2.5 and -1.5 a much tighter cluster.  The range of horizontal releases for Shields is almost twice that of Verlander.  Next time Shields is pitching I need to look at his location on the pitching rubber to see if this is still due to moving his starting foot position, which was the concern highlighted by Zimmerman.

Overall James Shields had a nice start to begin his career as a Royal, minus the run production that handed him a loss.  Most of the signs in the PITCHf/x data are what we want to see with good velocity, movement, and Zone%.  I will continue to monitor his release point to see what is driving it and if inconsistency continues.

The rankings for the Royals are mostly fair, but before I discuss where I think they are off I want to talk about the win projection.  In the end this system has a projection of 80 wins for the Royals.  This is exactly what I predicted in the Kings of Kauffman prediction article earlier this week.  You would think having projections systems along with some good writers over at Fangraphs agree with me would lead to a greater confidence in my original prediction, but that is not the case.

There are a couple of things that I disagree with a little, but can’t argue too much with, in that I think projections are a little low on Alex Gordon and Billy Butler.  These don’t change my mind though, since I think the optimism on Salvador Perez is probably a little too high.  Where this really affected my thinking was in two spots, right field and starting pitching.  The right field WAR is calculated with Jeff Francoeur receiving 630 plate appearances at a total WAR of 0.4, and that is almost surely not going to happen.  If Francoeur is bad then the platooning being discussed will likely become a reality quickly in some form, either acquisition, David Lough coming up, or Jarrod Dyson playing more in center with Lorenzo Cain moving over to play right.  The only other option is that Frenchy does get a full season of PAs, and that will likely only happen if he is producing at a better clip than 0.4 WAR per season.  It would surprise me a lot of the Royals don’t get better production out of right than is being predicted by Fangraphs, so that should add a win.  Possibly more, but I’ll call it one.

The second part, starting pitching, will likely be an even bigger deal.  Here are their projections:

They have James Shieldsat 4.4 WAR, which is fair and possibly even a little too high sinc

September 20, 2012; Kansas City, MO, USA; Kansas City Royals center fielder Jarrod Dyson (1) and team mates celebrate with first baseman Eric Hosmer (35) after the game against the Chicago White Sox at Kauffman Stadium. The Royals won the game 4-3. Mandatory Credit: Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports

e 4.5 is his career high even if his ERA and FIP could end up better than what is shown.  I would be shocked if Jeremy Guthrie, Ervin Santana, and Wade Davis all end up in the four and half ERA/FIP range, and that is the first part of my disagreement.  Obviously, since they did this things have changed too.  Luis Mendoza is now the number five starter, and will not be getting 40IP.  He will be an upgrade over Bruce Chen, which is why everyone has been hoping for Mendoza to get the spot and the Royals evidently agree as well.  My guess is that this staff will end up with another 2+ wins worth of value at the least.  Especially when I look at rotations like the Rockies getting a better projection.  Jeff Francis got projected at 2 WAR, and I would rather have anyone in the Royals staff, and Jon Garland got 1.4 WAR in projection in 90 IPs which is just plain crazy.  The only way that rotation is better is if guys like Drew Pomeranz bump Garland out of the rotation.

Just adding Mendoza and making it clear that the Francoeur is not going to be given much leash has made this Royals team better than I, and Fangraphs, originally thought a couple of weeks ago.  That is probably another 3 or 4 wins, which is starting to push the Royals toward an expectation of contention.  If they can move into the mid-80s for wins, then I think we are in for a fun September.  Sure, Detroit was projected as the best team in this same article at 94 wins, but Detroit has failed to live up to their hype a couple of times in the past few years.  Monday cannot get here fast enough.

For a history of the franchise’s struggles with walks go check out this post by Rany last year.  Last year the Royals were dead last in the majors in walk rate at 6.6%, while the average rate is typically 8 to 8.5%.  As constructed the line-up in 2013 will not likely improve significantly in walk rate:

Salvador Perez has never shown a propensity to walk.  A 4% or so walk rate is the expectation, and getting above 5% would be shocking and exciting.

Eric Hosmer coming through the minors was supposed to have good pitch recognition, and his walk rates were great, walking 11.6% of the time.  He will probably have a walk rate of 9% or better and be a bright spot on this team for this particular facet.

Chris Getz has been named the 2B starter as expected.  He has been around long enough that we know what he is, and that is a below average walker.  He will have a 7% walk rate, give or take half a percent.

Alcides Escobar has managed to put up 6.5% walk rates only twice in any major or minor league season.  The last two years he has walked in 4.2% of PAs, so better than 5% is not likely.

Mike Moustakas may actually be able to put up average walk rates at some point in his career, but so far he has not at the major league level.  His major league time, about a year and a half, says that a 6.5% walk rate is the expectation with some hope for improvement as he ages.

Mar 16, 2013; Phoenix, AZ, USA; Kansas City Royals batter Mike Moustakas (8) hits a home run in the third inning during a spring training game against the Chicago Cubs at HoHoKam stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jennifer Hilderbrand-USA TODAY Sports

Alex Gordon knows how to take a walk.  He finished 35^th in the majors in walk percentage last year with a 10.1% rate.

Lorenzo Cain has gone back and forth on walks.  Projections have him hanging around 7% mostly.  He may be able to be better than that, but it remains to be seen in the big leagues.

Jeff Francoeur’s disdain for the walk has been well chronicled.  Hopefully there is a platoon partner at the least to offset him.  Jarrod Dyson seems to be decent at walking, but David Lough, not so much.  The plate appearances for the outfielders not named Gordon or Cain could help if Francoeur does not get a majority of the plate appearances.

Billy Butler is almost certainly going to be above average in walk rate.  He has been, and he is a very good hitter.  Last year he walked at an 8% rate, but he was better than that in each of the three seasons prior.  That puts him with Alex Gordon and Hosmer as the only players we should expect above average walks from.

Those players are going to cover the majority of Royal plate appearances in 2013 unless injuries or something unforseen changes things significantly.  If more than three of the nine places in the line-up are above average it would be surprising.  Even if that happens, Perez, Escobar, and Frenchy are likely to be way below average, and Moose and Getz will likely be below average, which is going to be hard to make up for.  Getting this team to an 8% walk rate would be amazing, and I am not expecting it.

This one thing could preclude the Royals from being an above average offense this year.  Typically there are only two ways to make up for a lack of ability in getting on base, and one of those things is luck.  Counting on luck aside, power is the only way to make significant headway.  Last year the Royals were a middle of the pack team in slugging if you look at the major leagues, but only 10th in the AL.  That says to me that the only way this offense is above average is for more power to come from Moose, Hosmer, Cain, and Perez.  The others are either already sources of power (Billy), or will never be (Getz).  Off-season comments from Ned Yost make me think the Royals are at least aware of this, and in a week we will start to see if a more powerful version of your Kansas City Royals can make this team more competitive.

Xavier Paul – He is not as young as I would like, but Paul is a career .275 hitter against right handed pitching.  He has decent on-base skills and speed, and not a zero in power, though below average for sure.  Not my first choice, but serviceable and I don’t know that Cincinnati has room for him.

Tyler Colvin – The Rockies seem to be interested in him playing quite a bit, so it might take more to get him than I would want to spend.  He is exactly the profile of a platoon player, though.  Crushes right handed pitching and not great against lefties.  Last year he hit 17 HRs against righties and only 1 when facing southpaws.  Fielding metrics used to hate him, but not over the last couple of years.  The Royals recently talked with the Rockies about a trade, though Hochevar is not going to get Colvin.

Kole Calhoun – The Angels have four guys that are better than Calhoun and Vernon Wells.  Looking at Wells on the Angels’ depth chart made me smile a little since it means we don’t have the worst right field situation in the AL.  He is a more expensive Jeff Francoeur!  Nothing quite like having a backup get paid $21 million a year for two more years.  Calhoun has shown good on-base and power in the minors although he struggled in a cup of coffee last year.  The Angels also may need some starting pitching due to Tommy Hanson’s injury issues.

Chris Coghlan – Probably cheap, and if he could regain his form of 2009, would be an awesome steal.  That isn’t likely, but even in a bad 2011 he hit right handed pitching well.  Maybe he would be better in a platoon, and every player is better off away from Jeff Loria.

Feb 21, 2013; Surprise, AZ, USA; Kansas City Royals right fielder Jeff Francoeur (21) poses for a picture during photo day at the Royals Spring Training Facility. Mandatory Credit: Jake Roth-USA TODAY Sports

Caleb Gindl – Took a big step back in AAA last year, but probably worth evaluating.  Milwaukee doesn’t seem to need or want him badly, and his spring has been good so far.  He is only 24 and has shown the ability to get on base and hit for a least moderate power, which could mean a decent future depending on how he adjust to the majors.

Travis Snider – Still only 25 and could turn out to have an Alex Gordon sort of breakthrough based on what he was once thought of as a hitter.  If the Pirates decide to start him maybe Jerry Sands would be available, and could scoop up Sands.  He could just start over Francoeur and we could forget about this platoon thing.

Anthony Gose – He struggled in his first major league experience last year, and the outfield in Toronto is not lacking currently, if you believe in Colby Rasmus.  Maybe he could be stolen due to the shine coming off of the apple last year, but I doubt a 22 year old with his minor league track record would be cheap enough.

Roger Bernadina – With Denard Span coming in, it seems that Bernadina just became the world’s best 4^th outfielder.  Maybe the Royals could trade them Jarrod Dyson plus something so that they still feel like they have viable backup.  If that was possible I would put Bernadina in center, Lorenzo Cain in right, and cut Frenchy outright.  No way the Royals would do this, but I can dream.

The nice thing about finding someone to play opposite Francoeur in the batter’s box is that the bar is fairly low.  All they have to do to be valuable to the Royals is hit righties in an average fashion and not kick the ball around defensively.  My guess is that every guy on this list could do this, and some of them could be better when lefties are pitching too.  Hopefully the Royals can get an evaluation and trade done sooner rather than later, so that the platoon can begin.  Otherwise we need to give David Lough a chance as Tony said a couple of days ago.  The added benefit of getting someone who may be able to help the team for several years should make these sorts of players attractive at the current time.

If you follow the Royals’ minor league system at all, there is one theme.  Wilmington is a tough place to hit.  Being a position player in the system and getting a promotion to high A ball is the equivalent of the Royals Brass telling you that they would like to see how you handle failure.  It is a pitchers park of nearly epic proportions.  Cuthbert’s 2012 line of .240/.296/.322 is definitely scary, and maybe completely meaningless as well.  I went back and looked for Royals in Wilmington going back to 1994 to see who hit well there.  Plenty of players, including Johnny Damon, Mike Sweeney, and even Ken Harvey had nice seasons for the Blue Rocks, but there is a consistent similarity among them all, and that is that they were all in their early 20s.  Only one player under age 20 had a significant amount of playing time in Wilmington and had good hitting numbers.  Wil Myershad a nice half season in is age 19 season.

Cheslor Cuthbert via Jen Nevius

The best parallel for Cheslor is Carlos Beltran.  Beltran was actually a year older at each stop, but had a similar path of decent rookie ball year and a pretty good line between low A and A ball.  Then he arrived in Wilmington and struggled to a line of .229/.311/.363 as a 20 year old.  The following year he repeated his time at high A, and did much better, getting a promotion to AA where his numbers exploded.  That is the hope for someone like Cuthbert in 2013.  Getting a chance to age and repeat could lead to similar growth as a player.  Not only that, but the fact that he is following a similar path at a younger age means that the ceiling for him may be very high.

Digging into last season there were some good signs.  Away from his home park, Cuthbert’s average was similar, but his OBP was 20 points higher and his slugging was 60 points higher.  Also, after three really awful months, his OBP in the last two months (a little over 100 PAs) of the season were .343 and .364 with the usual small sample size caveats.  Everyone is loving up Adalberto Mondesi this spring, and for good reason, but don’t forget about Cheslor Cuthbert.  It would not at all be surprising to me if next year he was in AA and/or AAA and creating questions about how to handle the log jam at third base.

Let’s look at the main reasons Escobar is being tabbed for regression first.  His walk rate did not change last year, but his strike out rate went from 12.2% in 2011 up to 15.4%.  That is not generally what you would like to see.  Additionally, he posted a BABIP of .344 after being below .300 in his first two full seasons.  This is actually in line with his minor league BABIP results, but maintaining that high of a number at the major league level takes a lot of skill.  Finally, one of the main factors that contributed to this high BABIP and the increase in power, mostly due to more doubles, is his line drive rate.  Alcides’ LD% increased from 18.1 up to 23 in 2012, and that’s a good thing.  The problem is that line drive rate has a very low correlation year to year.  In fact, of all the hitting metrics tested, it has the lowest correlation at 0.293, which means we can’t count on it being sustained.  The last piece here is the increased strike out rate that came from lower contact rates, and just keep in mind that his swing rates and pitches per plate appearance, so he wasn’t more selective.

That is a lot of evidence that suggests Alcides Escobar’s 2012 was partially luck driven, but there are a couple of things he did a lot better.  One thing that makes me think he is getting better is that last year he maintained his ground ball rate while increasing his line drive rate.  That means that he avoided fly balls posting his best FB% ever at 23.7%, and that is highly correlated year to year.  If he

March 6, 2013; Scottsdale, AZ, USA; Kansas City Royals shortstop Alcides Escobar (2) hits a double in the first inning during a spring training game against the Arizona Diamondbacks at Salt River Fields at Talking Stick. Mandatory Credit: Rick Scuteri-USA TODAY Sports

hits fewer line drives this year it may mean his number of ground balls may increase rather than them turning into fly balls.  This is imperative for a hitter with so little home run power because almost all of his fly balls will end up being outs.  The second thing in Escobar’s season that stands out to me is his change in pitch values.  Last year he crushed fast balls compared to prior seasons, and he has been getting better at this over time.

In case you are unfamiliar with these, wFB is runs above on fastballs, while the wFT is two seem fastballs, wFC is cutters, and wFA is four seam and unclassified fastballs.  What these show is that Alcides was an above average hitter on fastballs last year for the first time in a full season, and that he improved from 2010 to 2011 as well.  Just for reference sake, Billy Butler’s wFB last year was 27, and Billy saw a fastball about 53.5% of the time last year versus Escobar’s 58.6%.  That means pitchers could start throwing fewer fastballs to Alcides, but even extreme fastball hitters still see a fastball 45% of the time.  He does not fit this category as these tend to be dead pull hitters with lots of power, think Ryan Howard.

At his age, Alcides Escobar’s improvement last year could be mostly due to development as a player through hitting the fastball well and avoiding fly balls.  If that development continues in his 26 year-old season this summer it could offset the regression from a little luck last year, and keep in mind that his BABIP and such don’t point to a crazy amount of luck either.  There is no reason that he cannot repeat, or even better, what he produced at the plate last summer

First, there are 4 players in the Detroit line-up that could end up as liabilities:

Andy Dirks just turned 27 and has only two partial years in the majors.  Last year he looked good in the 344 plate appearances he received.  Two things jump out at me though.  A BABIP of .365 is probably not sustainable, but more importantly how he has been used.  Of those plate appearances 261 came against righties and 83 against lefties.  They plan to platoon him due to his splits, but the other side of the platoon is uncertain.   Also, his power is limited with a career high of 15 homers between AA and AAA in 2010 and he rates out negatively defensively as well.

Torii Hunter had an incredibly lucky year at the plate last year with a BABIP of .389, and he is now 37 years old.  His aging has been showing slowly with power ticking down over time.  His average is likely to drop back to the .260s or 70s and 15 HRs is likely the max.  His walk rates and K rates got significantly worse last year.  He was always a defensive stud, but his legs aren’t what they used to be although he rated out very well last year by UZR for the first time in a number of years.

Victor Martinez is now 34 and just sat out a whole year.  His power looked diminished two years ago even though he put up a stellar batting average.  Projections see him taking a big step back overall this year.  He will probably still be useful as a hitter, but not a significant piece you want in the middle of your line-up.

Jhonny Peralta hit .239/.305/.384 last year.  He used to hit for power, but those years seem behind him.  His average will probably come back a little, but the rest of what he offers is pretty mediocre.

Based on these the Royals are obviously better than Detroit at Left Field, DH, and Short Stop.  Jeff Francoeur is still worse than a diminished Torii Hunter.  It would not surprise me if Second Base was similar for both teams as Omar Infante is nothing special, and Salvador Perez should be significantly better than Alex Avilatoo.  Those six positions will need to be decidedly in the favor of the Royals for run production between the two teams to be similar because the other three positions are solidly in Detroit’s favor.

February 22, 2013; Lake Buena Vista, FL, USA; Detroit Tigers third baseman Miguel Cabrera (24) at bat against the Atlanta Braves during spring training at Disney Wide World of Sports complex, Champion Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports

In the last nine seasons Miguel Cabrera has been very, very good.  Good enough that he is heading toward certain Hall of Fame territory and that Triple Crown is quite a feat.  Prince Fielder is pretty good too in case no one had noticed.  Austin Jackson is not in that rarefied air, but he is better than Lorenzo Cain unless Cain takes a large step forward.  Still, a big year out of Mike Moustakas and Eric Hosmer, which is not out of the question, could make the offensive difference between the Royals and Tigers negligible.  Just to clarify though, this means the Royals would need to close up a 50 run gap from last year, which means the Royals need to take a big step forward (as they should) and the Tigers take a small step back.

On to the second problem for the Tigers, defense:

Over the years I have gone from loving the new defensive metrics, to looking at them askance, to checking multiple sources hoping to find a consensus.  The Tigers corner infielders are Miggy and Prince, and their defense last year, and every year, has been bad.  For some reason though, UZR has like Jhonny Peralta the last two years at short after making him look terrible for most of his career.  At the same time UZR hates Alcides Escobar in 2012.  I have no idea how to process Jhonny Peralta being two WAR better than Escobar based on defense.  Baseball Reference had them closer to the same last year, but I am starting to believe Jeff Zimmerman’s  theory on shifting helping out Moose and hurting Alcides in the advanced stats.  Everything I see tells me Omar Infante is the only decent defender in the infield for Detroit.  In the outfield, Dirks had negatives last year, for what it’s worth, and Hunter is not what he used to be due to age, so center is the only place with a plus defender.  Avila seems to be a decent catcher, but catcher fielding is even harder to quantify than the others, so I won’t try and give a sweeping pronouncement.  Here I think the Royals have a significant advantage in LF, 3B, SS, 1B, and Catcher.

The third problem for the Tigers is the bullpen:

Let’s get the good out of the way first.  Joaquin Benoit and Brayan Vilarreal are probably pretty good.  I only say probably because Vilarreal only has 54 2/3 innings of quality relief to his name in the bigs.  Even last year, when Vilarreal established himself, his xFIP was 3.96, so he may not actually be good.  Benoit, on the other hand, has been good for the last three years and is their best relief pitcher.  After those two you have a lot of questions.  Bruce Rondon is supposed to be the closer, but he has major control problems and is probably not going to be taking care of the 9^th inning this year if his spring continues as at began.  Phil Coke and Darin Downs are not impressive in any way along with Octavio Dotel who is 49 and has been consistently middle of the road.  Maybe Al Alburquerque is a stud, but he still hasn’t done it over a whole season.  This is a bullpen that would be lucky to have three really solid guys.  The Royals have Greg Holland, Aaron Crow, Tim Collins, and Kelvin Herrera at the back end, and this is a huge advantage.

Now for Detroit’s huge advantage:

The rotation for the Tigers is much, much better than the Royals.  In fact, it is better at each of the five rotation spots.  Justin Verlander is better than pretty much everyone, Royal or not, and James Shields is not in that stratosphere.  Then Detroit has three somewhat indistinguishable guys in Max Scherzer, Doug Fister, and Anibal Sanchez.  Scherzer is probably the riskiest since he has been inconsistent.  Fister has had solid seasons the last two years.  He is likely to be good again, but without the upside of Scherzer.  Anibal Sanchez has put up sub-4 ERAs in the past three seasons, four seasons if you include a partial season in 2009.  Sanchez puts people on base at too high of a rate to be dominant, but he has been consistently good.  I think the Royals could match these three with Jeremy Guthrie, Ervin Santana, and Wade Davis, but that will take some luck and on an expectation basis the Tigers are well ahead.  If I were ranking these six I would probably go Fister, Sanchez, Guthrie, Scherzer, Santana, and Davis.  The first three are the most solid, and the other three have the highest upside.  Finally, the fifth spot.  The Royals are bound and determined to make Luke Hochevar fifth, while Detroit has Drew Smyly and Rick Porcello.  I will be honest. I hate Porcello, and always have.  In my opinion he is only marginally better than Hochevar, so I hope that’s who gets the job.  He cannot strike anyone out, and is not a great control pitcher either.  Drew Smyly on the other hand is a giant ball of potential.  He blew through the minors and struck out everyone on the way.  There are still some control issues, but nearly a K per inning can make up for some walks.  He is a question mark due to the limited time at the major league level, but he is likely better than anything the Royals can put in the 5^thspot.

September 26, 2012; Detroit, MI, USA; Kansas City Royals starting pitcher Luis Mendoza (39) pitches during the first inning against the Detroit Tigers at Comerica Park. Mandatory Credit: Rick Osentoski-USA TODAY Sports

It is unlikely that the Kansas City rotation will find a way to outperform Detroit’s.  The main hope will be trying to match their starters and hope to take advantage of the other weaknesses.  For that to happen, Ervin Santana will need to be like his last couple of months last year rather than the atrocious start.  Hopefully being in Kauffman will help him keep the home runs down a bit.  On the bright side it is unlikely he will have an 18.9% HR/FB rate again…unless he is done as a major league pitcher.  KC will also need Davis to smoothly transfer back to the rotation and post an ERA near or below four.  Those are both possible, and coupled with Shields being what he has been and Guthrie doing the same, minus the Coors Field Experience, that would be a decent front four.  The fifth spot being Luis Mendoza would make me feel like this is an average rotation with some upside.  Instead we will likely see Hochevar, and that makes this a slightly below average rotation, so any of the other pieces breaking down could lead to a lot of problems, at least until Danny Duffy and Felipe Paulino get back.  Those two make me very optimistic about next year’s rotation.

Overall the Tigers are the favorite due to their top end talent, which is second to none.  There are enough questions on this Detroit team though, that I don’t think they will go out and win 100 games and run away with the division  That means the Royals have a shot, but they will need to have a few things go their way with the rotation, and have the hitting disappointments of last year turn into positives.

Last spring was supposed to be a shot for Aaron Crow, after having some success in the bullpen, to pull a Greinke and get back to being a starter.  When the Royals broke camp Crow was back in the bullpen despite a truly dismal starting rotation of Bruce Chen, Luke Hochevar, Jonathan Sanchez, Felipe Paulino, and Danny Duffy.  The loss of Joakim Soria seemed to scare them more than Jonathan Sanchez’s control problems, which in hindsight is hard to believe.  It is possible that the Royals made the right choice since Sanchez had just been traded for and was not expected to be the disaster that he was.  Paulino and Duffy were legitimately exciting as far as potential (and still are), and Chen and Hochevar had done enough the previous year to warrant a look.  Still, it never seemed like Crow got a real chance to get back in the rotation mix.

Then the season started, and Hochevar summed up is career on opening day by taking the wind out of the sails of the team and fan base in one inning.  By the end of the year the only thing being talked about was how badly the Royals needed starting pitching, but there was never a mention of Aaron Crow.  He is only 26, and will be this entire year, and there is no reason he could not have been given a shot.  We know he can get guys out from the bullpen, just like Wade Davis who has shown up and been handed his spot over deserving players like Luis Mendoza despite being older and also needing to go to the bullpen to have success.

At this point the only argument I can come up for Luke Hochevar is that he is not the strongest mentally, and trying to be the “ace” ever since being called up has been a problem for him.  Now that he is the 5^th starter and James Shields is here, Luke can relax and do his thing.  Other than that it just seems like the Royals took him number one overall and they will not be proven wrong.  All Dayton would have had to say was that the draft in 2006 happened as the team was being passed off to him.  This doesn’t have to be his guy unless David Glass knows otherwise.  Crow is certainly on Dayton’s head, he has been a decent reliever the last two years, but the 12^th pick overall is not one spent with the bullpen in mind.

There is plenty of reason to believe that at least one of the starters in this rotation is going to struggle this year, and with any rotation there is injury risk.  I am not going to say Aaron Crow would be a raving success if moved to the rotation.  He may be built to be a bullpen guy.  But it is hard to think he would be worse than Luke Hochevar.

In 2011 Salvador emerged late in the year, and began his career by picking a couple of guys off while oozing moxie in his first game.  Since then he has continued to impress.  Only an injury last year and his rather large body give reason for concern.  What should we expect out of him this year, and in the long-term?  We know a few things.  He is really slow, and base running is never going to be a strength.  He is a catcher, so that is not unusual.  We also know that he hates people that can run the bases.  Last year he had 18 caught stealing on 43 attempts (41.9% caught), and 53 total assists in half a season.  He has a huge arm, and he is not afraid to use it.  Defensively he is not a concern, except whether or not a tall guy like him can stick at catcher.  His bat has also been really good, so let’s talk about that some too.

If you pull stats on catchers who have had big starts to their career under the age of 22 like Sal, then you get a nice feeling about his long-term potential.  So, for instance, I went to Fangraphs for a ranking of catchers in their 21 and 22 year-old seasons in the expansion era by wRC+.  Look at the list of catchers that had above average production with the bat:

These, along with a few other names, are the ones that continue to show up time and again if you look for Salvador Perez comps.  HOFers like Johnny Bench and Gary Carter (and Ivan Rodriguez assuming steroid era issues don’t keep him out), near HOFers like Joe Torre, the best of today in Brian McCann and Joe Mauer, and a whole lot of really productive players to go along with them.  If you look at him over this same time period for ages 21 and 22 he is 25^th in plate appearances among catchers, but 15^th in HRs, 2^nd in Avg., 5^th in SLG., and 8^th in wOBA.  I tried setting PAs between 300 and 600 to get rid of those who already had more than a full season under their belt by this point of their career, but Salvador dominates that group with the best average, second best slug, and second best wOBA.  It is hard not to get excited about this guy being on the Royals for the next seven years (thank you ridiculously team friendly contract).

Right now what we are all focused on is 2013, so though it is hard not to drool over the potential of a catcher who can hit for average and power and play plus defense, what about this year?  First I looked at projections.

Fangraphs has these posted, and ZIPS is somewhere between Steamer and Bill James.  That means three out of four projection systems are all expecting some average regression, but a decently similar OBP, and a little less slug.  Also, you will note similar homer totals to last year despite getting a full season.  Part of that is due to a 13% HR/FB rate last year that is probably a little high, but I was a little surprised to see no one projecting him in the 20 range for home runs in the coming season.  Projections are by nature conservative though, so I tend to like what I see.  That is an above average hitter and defender at a premium defensive position.  It puts him in the 3 to 5 WAR range for this year (which will pretty much pay for his entire contract of the next seven years if it happens).  Even if Perez has to move off of catcher due to his size/knees (Hosmer insurance?), his bat might end up being big enough to play anywhere if the power continues to develop.

September 05, 2012; Kansas City, MO, USA; Kansas City Royals catcher Salvador Perez (13) connects for a double in the sixth inning of the game against the Texas Rangers at Kauffman Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports

Going beyond projections I went and looked at catchers from the previous lists I generated, and how they did in their age 23 season using Baseball-Reference.  Those in the same range of plate appearances seemed to take steps back in that year (ex. BJ Surhoff and Michael Barrett), but those players didn’t flash the power Perez did prior to that year.  The one in the group that stood out as taking a step forward was Jason Kendall who went .294/.391/.434, but once again may not be a good power comparison.  The others had more time in the majors prior to their 23 year season.  I tried to stick to those flashing power prior to age 23, but not crazy like Johnny Bench who is a bad comp for humans in general.  Guys like Benito Santiago, McCann, and Bill Freehan struggled at 23 while Pudge and Ted Simmons put up lines similar to the projections for Salvador.  None of these seem to be very conclusive, but they make me wary that the 3+ WAR projections might be closer to the top end (at least the hitting component) for this season rather than a middle point.

It is also possible that trying to look at comparisons of 21 and 22 year-old catchers who have been really good is a small sample size issue, especially when you need 4+ decades of data to get enough players to do much of anything.  All in all it is hard for me to see a scenario where Salvador does not provide at least a league average bat and high caliber defense for 2013 unless there is another injury.  If his average drops 20 points and his power is more doubles than home runs we should all still be very excited about the years to come. The more I look at it I am expecting even more than that in the future, while feeling that we are little optimistic about the present.  This year I am going to try and keep my expectations for him a little in check and hope mostly for a full, injury free season.

Alex Gordon the disappointment has been redeemed, which is a great story.  He has posted 6.9 and 5.9 fWAR in the last two seasons respectively which puts him 5^th in the majors in fWAR over that time behind only Ryan Braun, Miguel Cabrera, Robinson Cano, and Andrew McCutchen.  He is a bona fide star by statistical nerd standards.  That being said, Gordon prior to 2011 had had only one season where his bat had been a positive versus a replacement player, and even then it was only good for half a win.

Billy Butler on the other hand has raked pretty much from day one.  In 2008 he struggled some posting his worst line of his career (.275/.324/.400) as a 22 year old.  Last year he had his best year yet by turning some doubles into dingers.  As the WAR statistic takes hold in the popular baseball world a little more, I would like to caution people in using it to completely evaluate anyone.  While trying to be unbiased context tends to be lost, and I believe within this team Billy has a lot of contextual value because he is the only guy I trust to be a significantly above average hitter in the coming year.  First let’s break down their WAR value differences, and then look at their positional value versus the league, and finally what would replacement look like to see the comparison.

September 24, 2012; Detroit, MI, USA; Kansas City Royals left fielder Alex Gordon (4) receives congratulations from designated hitter Billy Butler (16) after hitting a home run during the fourth inning against the Detroit Tigers at Comerica Park. Mandatory Credit: Rick Osentoski-USA TODAY Sports

So last year Billy had an fWAR of 3.2, or 1.7 WAR below Gordon.  Billy is ahead of Alex by almost 10 runs (1 win and almost 50 percent more runs above average) due to his bat, but he loses 2.7 when you add base running, fielding, and positional adjustments.  The base running I legitimately believe.  Billy cannot ever stretch for an extra base and he gets thrown out more often than he should, while Alex is a solid base runner.  After that adjustment the two are very close with Butler still slightly ahead, and it is fielding that makes the difference in the overall numbers.  Please don’t take the next part as me demeaning Gordon.  He is very good in LF, and his arm is valuable out there.  Still, defensive metrics, especially over one year samples, are very hard to trust.  So saying Alex’s defense makes him significantly more valuable than Billy is fine, but it may not be enough because…

It is not terribly difficult to find a left fielder.  The average WAR last year and projected 2013 (approx.) for the expected starters in LF for the American League this year are 2.83 and 2.33 (without Trout 2.32 and 1.99) respectively.  For the expected 2013 designated hitters the same two numbers are 1.27 and 1.49, so even if you throw Trout out because he is too awesome, this year’s Left Fielders were a little over a win better than the DHs and are projected to be half a win better in the coming year.  This could be taken to mean that it is harder to find a productive DH right now than you think.  I am tempted to go see what the production change when someone becomes a full time DH looks like.  Has anyone seen a study along those lines?  Anyway, DH gets a major ding on position in WAR that has to be completely made up for with the bat.  So what?  Isn’t that what WAR is supposed to do?  Maybe, but let us look at an example of what replacement means in this context.

If Alex Gordon was hurt the most likely scenario is that Cain slides over into left and Dyson starts in center.  That makes Jarrod Dyson our replacement player with some additional time for a guy like David Lough.  Projections have Dyson as better than replacement by a significant amount.  Given a full season, most would have him in the 1.5 to 2 WAR range.  That is a drop from Gordon, but not terrible.  Lough is closer to replacement if it ended up giving him a lot more time.  The three projections for him if extrapolated to a full season are .2, .8, and somewhere just above 1 WAR.  Let’s be conservative and say he is worth half a win above replacement over a full year.  Now think about Country Breakfast being out of the line-up.  Who would DH?  Dyson loses a ton of value without his speed in the outfield, and quite frankly the idea of a DH with 1 career home run is a bit absurd.  Lough is probably a liability at the plate as well.  I have no idea what the Royals would do if Billy was gone for an extended period of time.  They would be lucky to find replacement level.

Billy Butler is the best and most important bat in this line-up.  In fact, the whole extra interleague thing has me a little worried because it means more games where Butler is relegated to pinch hitting so that we can see our pitchers hack away.  Seriously National League, why?  Do you actually enjoy watching your pitchers flail about and/or lay down a bunt?  Billy was a win better than Gordon last year with the bat, and as far as expectation the difference may be larger than that (projections back this up).  Coupling the hitting value difference with the lack of a viable replacement for Butler, it would probably be more detrimental for the Royals to lose him than Gordon.  If I were starting a team from scratch I would rather have Gordon because he plays left so well, and will probably age better, but for this year and this team give me Billy Butler.