Apr 14, 2013; Kansas City, MO, USA; Kansas City Royals manager Ned Yost (3) during batting practice before a game against the Toronto Blue Jays at Kauffman Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Peter G. Aiken-USA TODAY Sports

The first decision that prompted outrage was the removal of James Shields after 8 scoreless innings on Monday. You know the story, Shields was cruising having allowed only 2 hits to the punchless White Sox but Yost chose to bring in his closer, Gregg Holland, to finish the game. Holland blew the save and the Royals eventually lost in 11 innings. I actually didn’t have a problem with this move. In his previous 9 appearances, Holland had allowed zero earned runs and struck out 16 in 9 innings. The league hit .156/.206/.219 against him during that time so it was reasonable to expect Holland to come in and pitch and scoreless 9th. Games like these are heart breakers and, spoiler alert, will happen again.

Last night’s decision is harder to defend, so I won’t. With the go ahead runner on base Yost turned to the absolute worst guy to go to, Luke Hochevar. Hoch’s struggles with men on base are well documented so it came as no great surprise when the run scored. He’s been pretty solid lately, and Aaron Crow was being saved for a save situation, so the move made some sense, but it would have made more if Hochevar had started the 8th inning. A manager has to put his players in position to succeed and Yost didn’t do that last night. Since he didn’t learn anything the last time Hochevar let inherited runners score we can only hope he was genuinely paying attention last night.

A move, or rather non-move, getting less publicity is Yost’s decision to not send George Kottaras to the plate in the 9th inning. Instead he trotted out the low OBP trifecta of Jeff Francoeur, Salvador Perez and Mike Moustakas. Kottaras has come to the plate in a late and close situation six times this year and has drawn a walk in four of them. They needed a baserunner and, small sample size or not, he’s shown an ability to get on base.

The last time Jarrod Dyson started a game he had 2 hits, 2 RBIs and a stolen base. That was April 28th in a 9-0 win against the Indians. In the 8 games since, Jeff Francoeur has put up a .200/.250/.333 line in 32 plate appearances. Dyson has seemingly been typecast as Billy Butler‘s late game pinch runner. He’s good at it, sure, but there’s absolutely no reason he shouldn’t be starting against right-handed pitching.

Apr 29, 2013; Kansas City, MO, USA; Kansas City Royals starting pitcher Wade Davis (22) delivers a pitch in the first inning against the Cleveland Indians at Kauffman Stadium. Mandatory Credit: John Rieger-USA TODAY Sports

To bring it closer to home take a look at the 1985 Royals. In June they lost three  in a row to the struggling Mariners. The starting pitchers for Seattle those three games?  Frank Wills (70 ERA+), Matt Young (86 ERA+) and Bill Swift (88 ERA+). The ’85 team is actually a decent comp for this years team. They had a strong rotation, good bullpen, and an offense that had only three above average hitters. Sound familiar? The Royals may turn out to be closer to the 2011 team record-wise but we don’t know that yet. It’s April and there’s still a whole lot of ball left to be played.

***

If you haven’t heard, MLB is expanding their presence on YouTube. If you want to see Bo Jackson run up a wall or rob  a home run, or if you just want to watch game six and game seven of the 1985 World Series, well now you can. Be warned though, with the good comes the bad.

April 25, 2013; Detroit, MI, USA; Kansas City Royals left fielder Alex Gordon (4) receives congratulations from second baseman Chris Getz (17) after hitting a grand slam home run in the tenth inning against the Detroit Tigers at Comerica Park. Mandatory Credit: Rick Osentoski-USA TODAY Sports

I don’t know about you but I’m starting to feel this team might be a legitimate contender. I know some of you have felt that way since Spring Training but I needed some convincing. Now I’m not quite ready to go into full blown Game On mode but the last week and a half was encouraging. They went 4-3 on a road trip to Atlanta, Boston and Detroit, and held the lead in every game, meaning they came close to winning all seven. They have actually been in every game all season with the largest loss coming in at 4 runs. I guess this what happens when you have a competent rotation. Now on to the six pack.

1.  James Shields has been as good as advertised. He’s put up a 130 ERA+ through five starts and is averaging exactly 7 innings each time out. Ervin Santana (163 ERA+) is averaging 7.2 and Jeremy Guthrie (107 ERA+) is averaging 6.4. Dayton Moore’s plan to increase innings and performance is working as intended. I wasn’t thrilled with the way DM rebuilt the rotation but I’m not letting that ruin my enjoyment of what I’ve witnessed thus far.
2. I’ve joined the send Mike Moustakas to Omaha bandwagon. Moose is simply overmatched right now and  a month long sabbatical up north may be what he needs to get going. Since June 1st of last year he’s put up just a .218/.272/.355 line, so it’s not like his struggles are a recent thing. Those numbers are a little too close to the .217/.268/.339 Jeff Francoeur has produced in the same time frame for my tastes. It’s hard to argue that Moose has basically morphed into Frenchy at this point.
3. Remember when people wanted to move Greg Holland out of the closer’s spot? That was fun. In his last 4 appearances he struck out 9 of the 12 batters he faced. He’s back.
4. So it turns out that George Kottaras does exist. For someone who hasn’t played much this year he was as cool as a cucumber Thursday afternoon. He wouldn’t swing at Phil Coke‘s assortment of junk and ended up drawing a bases loaded walk. Two batters later, this happened. Kottara now has 2 walks on the season. That matches Frenchy and is 1 more than Chris Getz and Salvador Perez have drawn.
5. Speaking of Frenchy…….what happened to that short leash he’s allegedly on? He’s having a worse season than last year and has shown no sign of going on one of his infamous hot streaks. It’s hard to see how the Royals would be worse with Jarrod Dyson playing three or more times a week in his place. Dyson is better defensively and on the basepaths, and at, you know, getting on base. It’s true that Frenchy has more power but he’s not actually put that on display this year.
6. Weather permitting, the Royals begin a ten game homestand today. The went 4-2 during their first two series at The K, which is a far cry from their home woes of last April. This is a different team and I think anything less than 6 wins can be considered a disappointment.

April 08, 2013; Kansas City, MO, USA; Kansas City Royals designated hitter Billy Butler (16) at bat against the Minnesota Twins during the fifth inning at Kauffman Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Peter G. Aiken-USA TODAY Sports

The Royals have outscored their opponents 43-28 this year. In their history that run differential of +15 has only been topped three other times after nine games and it marks the ninth time they have been +10 or better. The other eight times? Yeah, they did pretty well. Three playoff appearances and zero seasons below .500.

Now that’s not enough data to draw any meaningful conclusions obviously, but you have to admit, it is encouraging. It’s less encouraging when you look at other teams. Two years ago the White Sox, Rockies and Indian were all +15 after nine games and all three finished with a losing record. That same year the Reds were +17 and they also finished below .500. But whatever, we don’t care about their history.

Apr 1, 2013; Chicago, IL, USA; Kansas City Royals left fielder Alex Gordon (4) is forced out by Chicago White Sox first baseman Paul Konerko (14) during the eighth inning at US Cellular Field. Chicago won 1-0. Mandatory Credit: Dennis Wierzbicki-USA TODAY Sports

If you based your expectations on their Spring Training performance you might be a little disappointed with Monday’s result. Don’t be. Spring Training games are like movie trailers, they’ll show you a little of what to expect, but not near enough to make a definite judgement. They didn’t show me anything during the opener that’s caused me to back off my belief that they’ll be a .500-ish team this year. Now onto some thoughts about the game itself.

• James Shields was pretty good. I forgot how much fun it is to watch a starting pitcher that can get out of jams with a strikeout. He wasn’t dominant but he did strike out 6 in in 6 innings. If he hadn’t gave up a home run to Tyler Flowers the game likely would have went into extra innings where Luke Hochevar would have served up a walkoff bomb to Adam Dunn. Shields continued a recent trend where the Royals’ opening day starter matched his opponent – in four of the last five openers they’ve given up 2 runs or less. Shields’ Game Score of 58 rates as the 16th best performance in Kansas City’s 45 year Opening Day history.
• Billy Butler‘s at bat in the third inning turned out to be their most important plate appearance of the game. With the bases loaded and 1 out, Sale didn’t panic. Butler, trying to hit the ball into the next century, struck out swinging. Butler later had his first Opening Day hit since 2010 and he also added a walk. That bumped his career Opening Day numbers up to .136/.240/.136 in 6 games and 25 plate appearances.
• Getz didn’t bunt. I point this out not to be snarky but because he came up twice in situations where he normally lays one down. In the 3rd and 5th innings he was at the plate with  Jeff Francoeur on first base and nobody out and swung away both times. The results were not idyllic. He grounded weakly to the second baseman in the third and hit into a double play in the 5th. Getz is the lone player on the roster that I never minded seeing bunt but I’m not going to bash Ned Yost here. If this is a sign that there will be fewer bunts this year I’ll take it.
• Adam Dunn didn’t hit a home run. I don’t know about you, but every time Dunn’s at the plate, I feel like the end result will be a home run. The only other player I’ve felt that way about was Jim Thome. Dunn hit 5 home runs in 15 games versus the Royals last year. A couple of those haven’t landed yet.
• Frenchy was Frenchy. He did have a couple hits but also saw only 8 pitches in his 4 at bats. With Eric Hosmer on second base in the 9th inning, he swung at the first pitch and grounded out weakly to end the game. There was a lot of talk during the spring about Francoeur finding his swing, but his swing has never been the problem, it’s his approach that needs changed. As long as he’s willing to swing early, and often, pitchers have no reason to give him anything remotely hittable.

September 24, 2012; Detroit, MI, USA; Kansas City Royals left fielder Alex Gordon (4) receives congratulations from designated hitter Billy Butler (16) after hitting a home run during the fourth inning against the Detroit Tigers at Comerica Park. Mandatory Credit: Rick Osentoski-USA TODAY Sports

For instance, both Alex Gordon (.095/.136/.381) and Billy Butler (.105/.190/.105) have struggled immensely. Of the 18 Royals with 20+ career OD plate appearances, they are the only two to post on-base percentages below .200. Danny Tartabull easily has the most impressive line. He hit .500/.545/.850 in his five Opening Day’s as a Royal.

Here are some more random Opening Day numbers:

1 – Starts by both Luke Hochevar and Zack Greinke.

3 – Number of walks by Bo Jackson in 1990, the most ever by a Royal on Opening Day. George Brett holds the career mark with 11.

4 – Career home runs by George Brett. That’s twice as many as anybody else (Hal McRae, Frank White, John Mayberry and Gordon each hit 2).

7 – Starts by Kevin Appier. The Royals went just 1-6 scoring 3 runs or less in all the losses.

9 – Number of times the offense has been struck out 10+ times. They have gone an unsurprising 2-7 in those contests.

11 – The number of runs the Royals scored in 1979, the only time in 44 games they have reached double digits. They’ve been shut out twice (1976 and 2012).

.130 – The Royals winning percentage when they score 3 runs or fewer. They are 3-20 in those games and 12-9 when scoring 4+. Yay offense!

.424 – Freddie Patek‘s OBP in 33 plate appearances. His 4 hits in 1979 tied him with Lou Piniella (1969) and Frank White (1977) for the most ever in the season’s first game. Patek hit .367/.424/.600 with 4 stolen bases in his 8 Opening Day games as a Royal.

2.21 – Gil Meche‘s ERA in his 3 starts. That’s the lowest mark among the seven Royals who have started 3+ Opening Days. Jeff Suppan‘s 7.31 ERA is the highest. Shocking, I know.

Chen bombed in Spring Training, though, leaving Yost no choice but to name Mendoza a starter. If Yost made that decision based on Spring stats then he made the right move for the wrong reason, because really, it wasn’t that tough a decision when you think about it.

• Mendoza is almost six years younger than Chen. Yes, Chen has a more established track record but the older a player gets the less reliable his track record becomes. I read once that careers don’t take the field. I don’t believe that’s true of players in their prime, but of those on the down slope of their career, it’s absolutely spot on.
• Chen is in the final of year his contract while Mendoza can still help future Royals’ teams. Mendoza shouldn’t be penalized because Dayton Moore mistakenly gave Chen a two year after the 2011 season. He makes the Royals better now, and if he can perform as well as he did last year, that’s one less question mark going forward.

April 15, 2012; Kansas City, MO, USA; Kansas City Royals pitcher Luis Mendoza (39) delivers a pitch against the Cleveland Indians during the first inning at Kauffman Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Peter G. Aiken-USA TODAY Sports

Mendoza still has to prove the 3.83 ERA he put up over his final 20 starts wasn’t a fluke. I think even something in the 4.00-4.25 neighborhood would be acceptable. In years past, a guy coming off a 97 ERA+ would start the season opener. Now, he barely makes the rotation. If that’s not a sign of an improved rotation then I don’t know what is.

Steve Farr

As you no doubt recall, the Royals became the first team in baseball history to have the AL and NL reigning Cy Young Award winners on the same staff. Wathan joked about the luxury of choosing between Cy Young winners with games on the line, but when he was handed the first opportunity to bring in his shiny new toy, he passed. Horn homered off Farr and the Orioles would eventually win in 11 innings. That game was a fitting opener for the Royals. Along with Mark Davis, KC had also signed 19 game winner Storm Davis away from the A’s, and were pegged as the team to beat in the AL West. And why not, they won 92 games in 1989 and on paper they looked like a complete team. It’s safe to say that the dual acquisitions brought high hopes (not unlike this year actually). Instead, the Royals finished 75-86, 27.5 games behind the A’s.

There are a lot of intelligent people, who to this day, believe the 1990 season would have turned out differently if Wathan had gone to Davis during that crucial moment on opening day. I don’t know about all of that but I think they would have won the opener. As bad as Davis was in 1990, left-handed hitters still only hit .182 against him.

When people think of Farr, they think of this game, and of John Wathan, and, of course, of Sam ‘Freaking’ Horn. And that, my friends, is unfortunate because Farr was one of the best pitchers in franchise history. In 1990 Farr became just the second, and the last, Royals pitcher to toss  100+ innings in a season with an ERA below 2.00. He recovered nicely from his opening day meltdown, even if nobody remembers.

Farr was more than just 1990 though, in 1986 he pitched 109.1 innings with a 136 ERA+, and two years later posted a 161 ERA+ in 82.2 innings. He finished his Royals career with a 135 ERA+, a number that places him third among pitchers with at least 500 innings.

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My oh my, what a difference a year makes. I’m begging and pleading again, but this time, I want Mendoza in the rotation.

June 12, 2012; Kansas City, MO, USA; Kansas City Royals starting pitcher Luis Mendoza (39) waves to the crowd after being relieved in the seventh inning of the game against the Milwaukee Brewers at Kauffman Stadium. Mendoza threw a no hitter through six innings. Mandatory Credit: Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports

I wasn’t entirely wrong about him last year, the predictable did happen; he walked too many, struck out too few and was just all around horrible. He was demoted to the bullpen in May but received a second chance when Felipe Paulino went down in early June. He responded to his second chance by being a pitcher he’d never been in his career before. Look at the difference in his numbers between his first 10 appearances and his last 20, which were all starts.

That’s a fairly impressive run for a guy who struck out just 4.8 hitters every 9 innings in the minors (1111 IP). He finished the season with a 97 ERA+, a mark Luke Hochevar has never come close to accomplishing. Based on that 20 start stretch I think Mendoza has earned another look in the rotation. I don’t think it will happen though. Yost has already made comments that Mendoza would be a good fit at long relief, and I suspect Hochevar will get the fifth spot, even without actually earning it. Regardless of how I viewed Mendoza last year he did have a solid spring. This year I don’t think it will matter, especially now that he’s off on a WBC quest for Mexican glory.

I can’t imagine Hochevar suddenly getting it this year so I think at some point Mendoza will get a shot. If Yost needs a couple more months to completely rid the inconsistent right-hander from his system then I suppose I can live with that. I just won’t like it.

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September 24, 2012; Detroit, MI, USA; Kansas City Royals right fielder Jeff Francoeur (21) walks back to dugout after striking out during the ninth inning against the Detroit Tigers at Comerica Park. Mandatory Credit: Rick Osentoski-USA TODAY Sports

I’m a card carrying member of the basement brigade, and why yes, I do eat pop tarts for breakfast, lunch and dinner (I prefer blueberry). I tend to focus more on what a player does on the field and less what he does in the clubhouse. Jeff Francoeur may be a great teammate, and have a great smile, but he also posted a .287 on-base percentage last year. In my book that trumps all the off the field positives he brings to the team.

Optimism doesn’t come easy for me anymore. Two decades of incompetence will do that to a person. Many people look at the Royals roster and see a potential playoff team but I see a third place team that might win 80 games this year. For the Royals to play meaningful baseball in September this season a lot has to break right. All the team’s what ifs have to fall in place and that’s something I can’t envision happening.

According to more than a few debates I’ve had this winter this viewpoint somehow makes me less a fan than those who have bought in. This is, of course, absurdly untrue. Since I have the platform, I’d like to address four comments thrown my way over and over again.

“You want players to fail.”

It’s a bit of reach to think that complaining about a player’s lack of production equals cheerleading. Expecting a player to fail is not the same as hoping he’ll fail. I expected Yuniesky Betancourt to under perform, and to get far too many plate appearances, and that’s exactly what happened. Was I hoping he’d embarrass himself every time he came to the plate? Of course not. If someone can find an article or a tweet where I was cheering for failure then I’ll retire from the Royals blogosphere to live a life of quiet solitude.

“Games aren’t played on paper.”

Computer is sometimes substituted for paper but the point remains the same. This seems to be the go-to phrase when statistics are mentioned. I know games aren’t played on paper, and I’m glad, because I really do enjoy watching the Royals play. I also know anything can happen and a team can over perform its expectations, it does happen, but I don’t think you should ignore statistical evidence that suggests it won’t.

“Nobody has ever hired you to be a general manager.”

There’s a bit of hypocrisy involved in this statement. A few of the people who told me this spent the entire NFL season complaining about Scott Pioli. I’ve marveled at the way the Kansas City media highlights failures by the Chiefs front office while at the same time ignoring the same failures that are occurring across the street. To get back on topic though, no, I’ve never been a General Manager candidate. Here’s the thing folks, blogging isn’t just throwing a few hundred words onto the internet, there is hours and hours of research involved, some of which that shows Dayton Moore has made mistakes. Just because I’ve never been a GM doesn’t mean I’m incapable of recognizing those mistakes.

“You hate every move Dayton Moore makes.”

If you follow me on twitter or read my blog posts then you know that I’ve praised many of Moore’s moves. It’s intellectually dishonest to claim otherwise. Sure, I criticize more than praise, but the fact is a Moore team has never sniffed .500 or the postseason. That’s not exactly the track record of a GM who’s above criticism. Moves of Moore’s that I’ve endorsed include, among others, the Zack Greinke trade and extensions to Billy Butler, Alex Gordon, Salvador Perez and Alcides Escobar. 

1. Alex Gordon
2. Alcides Escobar
3. Eric Hosmer
4. Billy Butler
5. Salvador Perez
6. Mike Moustakas
7. Jeff Francoeur
8. Johnny Giavotella
9. Jarrod Dyson

Feb 21, 2013; Surprise, AZ, USA; Kansas City Royals left fielder Alex Gordon (4) poses for a picture during photo day at the Royals Spring Training Facility. Mandatory Credit: Jake Roth-USA TODAY Sports

Ned Yost hit a home run by putting Gordon at the top and Francoeur in the lower third. What’s not to love? I’m usually quick to criticize a bizarre batting order so I thought that even though it’s only Spring Training, I’d show Ned some love.

As you are undoubtedly aware, George Brett is the only player in the Royals Hall of Fame also enshrined in Cooperstown. I think a case can be made for a couple others but those are hinged on borderline players who probably should have never been elected. I’ll address those later. 

The idea here wasn’t just to see how many votes they received, but also, I wanted to compare their total to similar and lesser players on the same ballot. I had no doubts playing for the Royals was viewed as a negative in the writer’s eyes but I wanted to see by how much. It was quite a lot as it turned out.

Amos Otis – 1990

Otis didn’t receive a single vote despite being a five time All Star and one of the key contributors to the great Royals’ teams of the 1970’s. Were his 39.2 bWAR and 115 OPS+ Hall worthy? Of course not, but neither were the 15.1 bWAR and 74 OPS+ Bucky Dent posted, and Dent somehow received 3 votes. Personally speaking, I find this a far greater crime than Aaron Sele receiving 1 vote this year. Maury Wills (37.5 bWAR, 88 OPS+), in his 13^th year on the ballot, received 95 votes.

Steve Busby

Busby was ineligible for Cooperstown voting due to playing only parts of eight seasons. He actually only played three full seasons (1973-1975) so a valid argument could be made for his exclusion from the Royals HoF.

Paul Splittorff – 1990

Like Otis, Splittorff also failed to receive a vote. The only two players to receive votes with numbers comparable to Splitt’s (20.1 bWAR, 101 ERA+) were Jim Bibby (17.3 bWAR, 99 ERA+) and Mike Torrez (19.7 bWAR, 98 OPS+), and they both received only 1. In other words, nothing to see here.

Cookie Rojas – 1983

Rojas didn’t receive any votes either, but as his career numbers (6.7 bWAR, 83 OPS+) attest, he didn’t deserve any. I was actually surprised to learn that he didn’t post the worst stats on the ’83 ballot. That honor fell to Tommy Helms. Despite a 6.5 bWAR and 79 OPS+, Helms received 1 vote. Weird. I guess being the 1966 National League Rookie of the Year carried a lot of weight for one particular voter.

Dennis Leonard – 1992

Leonard was Jack Morris before being Jack Morris was cool. From 1976 to 1981 Leonard led the American League in starts, innings and wins. He also finished second to Nolan Ryan in strikeouts. Being the winningest pitcher of the late ‘70’s and early 80’s just doesn’t carry the same amount of weight as being the winningest pitcher of, say, the 1980’s. Leonard received 1 vote in 1992, which honestly sounds about right. I wonder, though, how voters would have treated him if injuries hadn’t derailed his career. I suspect he still would have been one and done but he at least may have reached double digits in votes. No pitcher with a worse career received more votes than Leonard in ’92.

Hal McRae – 1993

McRae received zero votes despite a 123 OPS+ that was higher than nine other candidates who received votes. Andre Thornton (2), though, was the only player with a lower bWAR (22.0) than McRae (24.7) to receive votes. It’s more than possible that spending the majority of his career as a designated hitter also contributed to his shut out.

Freddie Patek

Like Busby, Patek never appeared on a ballot. Unlike Busby, Patek should have, because he played 14 years in the major leagues. I could understand if he spent the entirety of his career as utility infielder but he didn’t. He was a 3 time All Star who led the American League in stolen bases from 1971 to 1979 with 336. Patek’s 21.3 bWAR and 79 OPS+ weren’t Hall worthy but neither were the numbers of several contemporaries, who not only appeared on ballots, but actually received votes. Don Kessinger (6.8 bWAR, 73 OPS+) received 2 votes in 1985, Larry Bowa (20.0 bWAR, 71 OPS+) received 11 votes in 1991, and as I mentioned earlier, Bucky Dent (15.1 bWAR, 74 OPS+) received 3 votes in 1990. Dent actually played fewer seasons than Patek but he spent most of them with the Yankees, and that’s likely the only reason he received any voting love. I’m glad the 11 games he played with Royals in 1984 didn’t keep him off the ballot.

Larry Gura – 1991

Gura was shut out but at least he was allowed to appear on a ballot. (Yes, I am bitter. Why do you ask?) No pitcher with lesser numbers received votes on this ballot.

George Brett – 1999

According to Baseball Almanac, Brett’s 98.2% is the fifth highest percentage ever, trailing only Tom Seaver, Nolan Ryan, Cal Ripken Jr., and Ty Cobb. I have nothing to add here.

July 8, 2012; Kansas City, MO, USA; Former Kansas City Royals player George Brett at bat during the 2012 Legends and Celebrity softball game at Kauffman Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports

Frank White – 1996

Compared to the rest of the players above (excluding Brett, of course), White made out pretty well. He received 18 votes but was bounced from the ballot for falling below the 5% cutoff. There are many Royals fans who believe White should be enshrined in Cooperstown. They almost always point to Bill Mazeroski, a second baseman with near identical numbers to White’s.

John Mayberry – 1988

In ’88 Manny Mota (16.1 bWAR, 112 OPS+) received 18 votes, despite having never come to the plate 500 times even just once in his 20 year career. In his 12^th year on the ballot, Harvey Kuenn (22.8 bWAR, 108 OPS+) received 168 votes. Mayberry (21.5 bWAR, 123 OPS+) received zero.

Dan Quisenberry – 1996

Quiz was on the same ballot as White and received the same amount of votes, 18. Bruce Sutter, appearing on his third ballot, received 137 votes. Sutter eventually got in while Quisenberry was bounced from consideration. Their numbers aren’t as identical as White and Mazeroski’s but they’re close enough to wonder why one got the love and the other a cold shoulder.

Willie Wilson – 2000

Wilson received 10 votes in his one and only year on the ballot. His 43.5 bWAR was the highest among the players who missed the cut and higher than four position players who got enough support to stick around a while longer. Those players would be Steve Garvey (34.4 BWAR, 160 votes), Dale Murphy (42.6 bWAR, 116 votes), Dave Parker (36.3 bWAR, 104 Votes) and Dave Concepcion (36.5 bWAR, 67 votes). He was also just a tick below eventual Hall of Famer Jim Rice (44.3). I don’t believe Wilson got slighted though. Outside of Concepcion, the players above were much better hitters than he was.

Jeff Montgomery – 2005

Monty (19.5 bWAR, 135 ERA+) received 2 votes and that’s probably fair. I’m guessing the 13 writers who voted for Jim Abbot (17.5 bWAR, 99 ERA+) did so for non-statistical reasons. I suppose that’s not much different than voting for Bucky Dent because of who he played for, but I liked Abbot, so I’m going to let it slide.

Bret Saberhagen – 2007

How in the heck does a guy with 2 Cy Young awards, 56.0 bWAR and a 126 ERA+ receive only 7 votes? Oh right, he won only 167 games in his career. That was less than Jack Morris (39.3 bWAR, 105 ERA+, 202 votes) and Orel Hershiser (52.7 bWAR, 112 ERA+, 24 votes). I’m actually more surprised that Hershiser was eliminated from the ballot considering he was a Dodger, had the great season in 1988 and won over 200 career games. As far as Morris goes, Saberhagen was better, and it wasn’t  close.

Mark Gubicza

Gubicza never appeared on a ballot either, because Royals. His 132-136 record and 109 ERA+ must not have interested those who crafted the 2003 ballot. Rick Honeycutt (109-143, 104 ERA+) somehow received 2 votes that year. Danny Jackson (112-131, 100 ERA+) didn’t receive any votes but at least he was up for consideration.

Kevin Appier – 2010

Just like Saberhagen three years before, Appier (51.5 bWAR, 121 ERA+) won the statistical battle against Morris (39.3 bWAR, 105 ERA+) but lost the vote battle, badly. In this case, it was 282-1. Pat Hentgen (30.0 bWAR, 108 ERA+) also received 1 vote. Pat Hentgen was no Kevin Appier.

Van Snider

Like Hayes, Snider was a left-handed hitter with pop and speed. In 1983, as a 19 year old for the Class A Charleston Royals, he hit .291/.355/.484 with 20 home runs, 26 stolen bases and 94 RBIs. He struggled in Double A the next two seasons but the third time was the charm in 1986 when he smacked 26 home runs while hitting .270/.337/.504 for the Memphis Chicks (this was likely the year the above mentioned puff piece aired). The warning signs were clearly there though as he only drew 48 walks and struck out a whopping 140 times. But no matter, someone claimed he was the next Von Hayes so that’s what I believed and I lived my life secure in the knowledge that the next Von Hayes was in the Royals system.

And then one day, he wasn’t.

On February 15, 1988* the Royals traded Snider to the Cincinnati Reds for a relief pitcher who had posted a 6.52 ERA the year before. The Reds GM at the time, Murray Clark, said this relief pitcher had no chance at making the club and there were younger pitchers they wanted to give shots to in Triple A. I was not happy Snider was traded for a guy whose former team simply had no use for. Fortunately for the Royals they didn’t need my approval when they acquired Jeff Montgomery. It worked out pretty well for them as Monty went on to accumulate 304 saves while making three All Star games (thanks in large part to the bust known as Mark Davis).

It worked out less well for Cincinnati. Snider only received 36 plate appearances as a Red and put up a paltry .200/.194/.314 line. His lone career home run came on September 21, 1998. It was a 3 run shot that helped deny Rick Reuschel his 20th win of the year. Though he continued to play pro ball through the 1995 season he was never given another shot in the big leagues. He still won at life though. According to his Wikipedia page, Snider has enjoyed a successful career as a police officer in Mayfield Heights, Ohio. Let’s see Von Hayes do that.

May 16, 2012; Kansas City, MO, USA; Kansas City Royals relief pitcher Jonathan Broxton (51) delivers a pitch in the ninth inning of the game against the Baltimore Orioles at Kauffman Stadium. The Orioles won 4-3. Mandatory Credit: Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports

The Reds and Royals have been frequent trade partners over the years with Kansas City coming out on top the majority of the time. Besides Montgomery, they’ve also robbed the Reds of Hal McRae and Charlie Leibrandt. Most recently they received actual talent in exchange for Johnny Drama. I guess I’m just surprised Cincinnati hasn’t put Kansas City on any sort of call block.

*Editor’s note: Baseball Reference lists the trade as being a 2/15/88 deal. It’s also been reported as a 2/13/88 deal in some places. We’re comfortable sticking with B-R’s information. 

August 22, 2012; St. Petersburg, FL, USA; Kansas City Royals left fielder Alex Gordon (4) on deck to bat against the Tampa Bay Rays at Tropicana Field. Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports

The Royals in their history have been prone to throwing a speedster at the top of the lineup regardless of an ability to get on base. I single Kansas City out here because this is a Royals blog but this line of thinking is popular across all of baseball. It’s why somebody like Omar Moreno can accumulate over 3500 plate appearances at leadoff despite a .306 career on-base percentage. Speed kills, but it also blinds.

Despite the presence of Kenny Lofton Jarrod Dyson on the roster I firmly believe that Gordon remains the best option to bat first. He’s one of the better leadoff hitters in team history, if not the best. Ned Yost hit a home run when he inserted Gordon at the top of the order two years ago. It was an outside the box type of thinking that we’re not accustomed to seeing in Kansas City. All Gordon has does in that spot is put up two of the top four highest on-base percentages by a Royals leadoff hitter (min. 250 PAs).

In a perfect world you would absolutely want a Lofton type of player batting first. Kansas City doesn’t have one though. Luckily they just happen to have someone better.

Improvement in 2013 hinges on a much improved rotation. Dayton Moore saw the team’s major weakness and set about it fixing it. Now maybe he didn’t accomplish this in the manner some of us would have liked but he did improve the starting pitching corps. You have to admit, Luke Hochevar as a possible #4 or #5 is certainly a more tolerable option than watching him front the rotation.

August 21, 2012; St. Petersburg, FL, USA; Kansas City Royals starting pitcher Luke Hochevar (44) throws a pitch against the Tampa Bay Rays at Tropicana Field. Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports

For the Royals to compete, the rotation must go deeper into games. Kansas City could potentially see five starters pitch 180+ innings this season for the first time in team history. Six of the rotation’s candidates have accomplished this at least once in the last couple of years. Eating innings and eating innings effectively are of course two different things, but with Danny Duffy and Felipe Paulino set to return at some point, I don’t think we’ll see a situation where a guy makes 30 starts with an ERA+ in the 70′s or low 80′s. Well, unless it’s James Shields or Jeremy Guthrie, I think those two make all their starts no matter what (barring injury of course).

Eight times in Royals history they’ve had four starters go 180+ and in those seasons they finished above .500 six times, made the playoffs three times and went to the World Series twice. I’m not attributing those team’s successes solely to starting pitching but they were obviously key factors (and in 1985′s case, more than key).

I still believe a playoff run is more likely to occur in 2014 than next season but I am eager to see what 2013 brings.

Jul 13, 2012; Kansas City, MO, USA; Kansas City Royals third baseman Mike Moustakas (8) runs the bases after hitting a home run in the second inning against the Chicago White Sox at Kauffman Stadium. Mandatory Credit: John Rieger-USA TODAY Sports

Moustakas started off hot last season and looked like he was going to live up to his potential. On May 15th he was hitting .310/.371/.540 but then went into a slump that encompassed the rest of the season. He hit .224/.278/.380 from May 16th on. Though he clearly didn’t, it seemed like he popped up every other at bat. Luckily he never took his struggles out onto the field where he remained a defensive stud all season. That’s probably one area where he’ll always best Myers. But I imagine the amount of people who hope he becomes the next Joe Randa number in the zeroes. Meaning, above average defense or not, his value ultimately lies in his bat.

You guys know my shtick by now, I’m a comp addict, I enjoy looking to the future by looking at the past. Like I mentioned earlier, I don’t think Moose will outperform Myers over the long run, but I do believe he’ll have a fine career. So I fired up the play index machine to see how players with similar age 23 seasons fared for the rest of their respective careers. I usually do these searches by OPS+ but I changed it up today and instead looked for players with 18-22 home runs and an OBP of less than .300. Not counting Moose, PI spit out four such seasons.

Chris Davis – 2009
21 HR, .284 OBP

Davis was fantastic in 2008 when he hit .285/.331/.549 as a 22 year old rookie. He was unable to carry that success over into 2009 as his OPS+ fell from 128 to 85. He totaled just 346 plate appearances over the next two seasons hitting an uninspiring .238/.295/.361 in the process. Davis rebounded at 26 this past season with Baltimore where he hit .270/.326/.501 with 33 home runs.

Juan Encarnacion – 1999
19 HR, .287 OBP

Encarnacion also had success as a 22 year old rookie posting a 134 OPS+ in 175 plate appearances. Like Davis, he was unable to carry that over into his age 23 season. What’s interesting about that season was that he never posted a higher slugging percentage or lower on-base percentage again. At 24 he hit .289/.330/.433 but hit only 14 home runs. At 26 he hit a career high 24 home runs and at 27 put up career bests in doubles (37) and RBIs (94). For his career he hit .270/.317/.441 with a 97 OPS+.

Matt Williams – 1989
18 HR, .242 OBP

I was reluctant to add Williams because of the significant difference in OBP but ultimately decided to because Moose’s career could end up very similar to Williams’ when all is said and done. There are several similarities that influenced my decision. Like Moose, Williams was a power hitter who seldom walked. He was also a fantastic defender who ended his career with four Gold Gloves. Did I mention he too was a first round draft pick? I adore this comp.

At age 24 all Williams did was hit 33 home runs while driving in a league leading 122 runs. He put up a 123 OPS+, which was good, but not as good as the 129 he posted at age 25 when hit 34 home runs. After a miserable age 26 season he became an elite hitter and at ages 27-30 posted a 144 OPS+. He averaged 32 home runs during those four seasons. Williams finished his career with a .268/.317/.489 slash line, 113 OPS+, six 30+ home run seasons and ten 20+ home runs seasons. It’s not outrageous to suggest that Moose could match or better those numbers.

Rico Petrocelli – 1966
18 HR, .295 OBP

Petrocelli is as close comp-wise as you can get. His career numbers, specifically his .300 OBP and 90 OPS+, after his age 23 season are identical to what Moose has produced thus far. He put up a .330 OBP, 17 home runs and a 113 OPS+ at age 24 but a chronic elbow problem saw his numbers nose dive at 25 (.292 OBP, 12 HR, 96 OPS+). I’ve mentioned before that age 26 is the sweet spot in Royals history and that holds true to this list as well. Three of the four comps had their best home run season at that age, Petrocelli included. He hit 40 home runs that season while also putting up career bests in OBP (.403) and OPS+ (168). I’d be curious to know what changed in his approach, because after having never walked 50 times in a season before, he drew 98 that year. He hit 29 and 28 home runs the next two seasons but then his power all but disappeared. From age 29 to the end of his career he hit just 53 home runs. He finished his career with a .332 OBP, 108 OPS+ and 210 home runs.

The trade’s motivating factor is Dayton Moore’s desire to win now. An understandable goal and one I could get firmly behind if Luke Hochevar, Jeff Francoeur and Chris Getz were to find themselves elsewhere next year. It’s hard to dispute the belief that signing Edwin Jackson or Ryan Dempster and replacing Francoeur with Myers would do more to accomplish Moore’s goal than trading for Shields. The Royals weren’t exactly an offensive juggernaut last season and Moore has thus far ignored question marks at second base, right field and centerfield (sorry, kids, Willy Taveras doesn’t count).

Oh right, acceptance, moving on then.

Shields instantly becomes the team’s best starting pitcher and will front the rotation. Since 1994, there have been 19 seasons where an AL Central starter pitched 200+ innings with a SO/9 of 8 or higher. Of those 19, only 2 saw ERA+’s of less than 110 (Javier Vazquez, in 2006 and 2008). Shields has reached that combo three seasons in a row. Moving away from the tough AL East it’s not hard to imagine him putting up an ERA+ in the 115-125 range. A lot has been made about his career 4.54 road ERA, but if you remove trips to Boston and New York, it drops to 4.26. Granted that is still unimpressive but it’s not awful.

Davis has been described over and over again as the wild card in the trade, which I think is an accurate assessment. His two years as a starter were very Hochevar-ish so the hope is that he can take the lessons learned in the bullpen, where he was dominant last season, and apply them in the rotation (think Zack Greinke, 2007). The more I think about it, I believe that when it comes to 2013 contention, Davis may be more important than Shields. Shields will certainly be good but if Davis steps up and fulfills his potential KC will have two above average starters to go along with Santana and Guthrie, two pitchers who will likely hover around league average. Of course if Davis can’t transition effectively back into the rotation he’ll be moved to the bullpen and a various assortment of junk will take his spot.

July 19, 2012; St. Petersburg, FL, USA; Tampa Bay Rays relief pitcher Wade Davis (40) throws a pitch against the Cleveland Indians at Tropicana Field. Tampa Bay Rays defeated the Cleveland Indians 6-0. Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports

Southside Sox did a rotation comparison between the Royals, White Sox and Tigers and found the Royals still trailing their division rivals, despite the overhaul. They used 2012 numbers which I think can be a little deceiving. Shields, Davis and Santana are coming over from tougher divisions so I think they’ll receive a Central bump in effectiveness, so to speak. I’m not saying the Southside Sox author was necessarily wrong in his conclusion but that it’s just not an ideal comparison. He does make a solid point about Guthrie you may want to check out though.

His article made me curious about how the Royals top four have fared in their careers against the Central. They’ve done pretty well as it turns out. Shields actually has the highest ERA, which I found surprising but not concerning since most of the damage was done by the White Sox. Below are their career innings pitched and ERA’s vs the Royals’ Central opponents.

Something else that can’t be discounted is that KC will open the season with five starting pitchers capable of eating innings. That will take a tremendous load off a bullpen which saw way too much action last season. The Royals opened 2012 without a single pitcher possessing even one 200 inning season in their respective careers. That has now changed because Shields, Santana and Guthrie have combined for 13 such seasons. Davis, Chen and Hochevar each have at least one 180+ inning season just within the last couple years. So yeah, the bullpen should stay fresh.

I think Moore has built a solid rotation, albeit at a high cost. The Royals may very well be good enough to contend next season, of course that’s depending on your definition of contend. I define it as staying in the race until early August. Danny Duffy and Felipe Paulino should be back by then to give the team a late season boost, but they’re likely to be a bit rusty, so how much they’ll actually contribute is anybody’s guess.

Winning now though? I don’t see it happening. Detroit is just too good. KC won’t take the their division but we could see the team’s first .500 season since 2003, in fact I’ll be disappointed with anything less. 2014, however, could be when the magic happens. Full seasons of Duffy and Paulino with Kyle Zimmer and John Lamb on deck, yeah, that’s going to be fun to watch.

Myers is gone and I’ve made my peace with it. Now I’m ready for KC to win some games and set this city on fire.

Thirty-nine pitchers have started 50 or more games for Kansas City and Hochevar has a lower ERA+ than all of them. Among the same group, only Dan Reichert (-0.5) and Glendon Rusch (-0.3) join him on the negative side of bWAR (-0.3). I suppose you know all of this, after all, myself and others have been tracking these numbers for a few years now. Ned Yost believes Hochevar will bounce back in 2013, but his career best ERA+ is just a meager 87, so bounce back may not mean what Yost thinks it means.

I felt after the season that Hochevar may have pitched himself out of Kansas City with his September performance (9.56 ERA, 1.87 WHIP) but that turned out to be wishful thinking on my part. Dayton Moore was apparently fine with him having the worst season of his career, as well as his most expensive. I don’t get it.

July 25, 2012; Anaheim, CA, USA; Kansas City Royals starting pitcher Luke Hochevar (44) reacts after being ejected for hitting Los Angeles Angels center fielder Mike Trout (27) with a pitch in the fourth inning at Angel Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Gary A. Vasquez-USA TODAY Sports

With Ervin Santana in the fold, and Jeremy Guthrie re-signed, the time was perfect to part ways with the right-hander. It’s hard to listen to team officials talk about the financial challenges they face while they are at the same time preparing to flush more than four million dollars down the drain. Hochevar is talented, I get it, but it’s just not going to happen for him in KC. I want to be wrong, I would be thrilled to be wrong. I just don’t think I am.

Moore is insistent on bringing in another pitcher to front the rotation, which is fine (but not at this price), but that just raises more questions as far as I’m concerned. Right now, and not counting Will Smith and Jake Odorizzi, the rotation is full.

Here’s the starting corps as I see it:
Guthrie
Santana
Hochevar
Chen
Mendoza

So then, who is the odd man out if another starter is acquired? The front office spent last winter hyping Luis Mendoza and then Mendoza went out and led the team with a 97 ERA+, a mark Hochevar has never come close to achieving. Are they going bail on him after a semi-successful season? I suppose he’d move to middle relief but it still wouldn’t make sense due to the fact he was a more effective pitcher than Hochevar.  Bruce Chen is on the books for 4.5 million so good luck trying to find a team willing to take that on after the season he just completed. The logical, easy move would have been to non-tender Hochevar.

Five straight seasons Hochevar has pitched 100+ innings and five straight seasons he’s finished with an ERA+ under 90. What the heck, let’s make it six.

There were eleven seasons the past six years that matched the above criteria. That number placed them 25th among the 34 time periods. Only the offensive ineptitude of the 1990′s kept them from being closer to the bottom. And of course, Butler and Gordon. Those two account for the top six seasons under Moore, which is interesting, since they were already in the organization when Moore was hired.

September 24, 2012; Detroit, MI, USA; Kansas City Royals left fielder Alex Gordon (4) receives congratulations from designated hitter Billy Butler (16) after hitting a home run during the fourth inning against the Detroit Tigers at Comerica Park. Mandatory Credit: Rick Osentoski-US PRESSWIRE

Criticize the lack of a Moore acquisition or draftee in the top six all you want but Butler and Gordon have been really, really good. Seven of the seasons came in the last two years thanks in large part to the 2011 offensive explosion. The five seasons put up that year tied the 1980 and 1982 teams for the most in Royals history.

The top time period was 1975-1980 with 21 seasons. Butler and Gordon’s 140 OPS+ would have placed 9th on that list which is testament to how talented those teams were offensively (Speaking of really, really good, George Brett occupies 6 of the top 15 spots).

Here’s the complete rundown.

• Can Jonathan Sanchez discover his pre-2011 form?
• Can Luke Hochevar carry over a great second half into 2012?
• Can Bruce Chen be a league average starting pitcher?
• Can Danny Duffy take a John Danks type step in his second season?
• Can Felipe Paulino prove that his 2011 season was legit?

The bottom two questions never got answered thanks to injuries but the answers to the first three were no, no and no. But you know all this and really don’t care to be reminded of the 2012 rotation’s historical mediocrity. I don’t blame you, but moving forward, we see not a lot has changed.

The 2013 rotation, barring a trade, is basically set and the question marks that existed before 2012 are still there.

• Can Ervin Santana discover his pre-2012 form?
• Can Jeremy Guthrie carry over a great second half into 2013?
• Can Bruce Chen be a league average starting pitcher?
• Can Luis Mendoza prove that his 2012 season was legit?

Eerie, isn’t it.

I haven’t really declared one way or another my opinions on the Santana and Guthrie deals. That’s because I keep flip flopping on whether I like them or not. There are reasons to like and dislike both of these moves. Santana and Guthrie will be paid  a combined 37 million dollars over the next three seasons and I just can’t help but wondering if that money should have gone to a more elite starting pitcher.

September 7, 2012; Anaheim, CA, USA; Los Angeles Angels starting pitcher Ervin Santana (54) pitches in the first inning against the Detroit Tigers at Angel Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Gary A. Vasquez-US PRESSWIRE

Once again Dayton Moore jumped in with both feet before the market had a chance to set itself. Craig Brown is spot on when he discusses why this is “ultimately a flawed strategy“. Criticize Craig’s negativity if you must but he predicted that Sanchez would be train wreck when a lot of people (myself included) were cautiously optimistic.

The flip side, of course, is that you can throw all the money you want at free agents but you can’t make them pick it up. If Moore waits too long then he could miss out altogether and we’d be forced to watch a rotation that contained both Hochevar and Chris Volstad. I don’t know about you but I had nightmares about such a scenario.

Again, there are reasons to like and dislike the two deals. Santana and Guthrie have decent track records so it wouldn’t come as a great shock if both put up 200 inning, 110 ERA+ seasons. If that happens I expect the Royals to flirt with contention. Of course that’s contingent on the offense remembering how to hit, which I believe they will.

As for the last two questions above, I’m more optimistic that Chen will approach league average than Mendoza, and I base that solely on their respective SO/BB numbers. I like what Mendoza accomplished when he re-entered the rotation (122.1 IP, 3.83 ERA) but I’m not sure he can do that over the course of a full season. As of right now though, I have no problem with him occupying the rotation’s fourth or fifth spot.

August 05, 2011; Kansas City, MO, USA; Kansas City Royals manager Ned Yost (left) with general manager Dayton Moore (right) before a game against the Detroit Tigers at Kauffman Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Peter G. Aiken-US PRESSWIRE

Before we get swallowed by #YearSeven I thought I’d start a series comparing player performances under Moore against the thirty-three other six year intervals in team history. Today we’ll start with everybody’s favorite topic, the rotation. I was looking for seasons where a pitcher tossed 162+ innings with an ERA+ of 110 or higher, once a common thing in KC, but now as rare as a Chiefs lead. Since 2007 there have been only four such seasons, and none since Zack Greinke’s Cy Young season in 2009.

Development issues and an improper evaluation of major league talent have left the Royals starved for even league average starting pitching. Place the blame where you like, but facts are facts, Moore’s rotations have been nothing short of disastrous.

Here’s the short rundown of the Moore era:

2009 – Greinke 205 ERA+, 229.1 IP

2008 – Greinke 125 ERA+, 202.1 IP

2007 – Gil Meche 125 ERA+, 216 IP

2007 – Brian Bannister 118 ERA+, 165 IP

The only time period with fewer was 2001-2006 with three. Shocking, I know. The mid to late 1970’s and mid to late 1980’s were the starting pitching golden eras, which I imagine surprises no one. Anyway, I made this nifty little chart which has all the results. Nothing shocking here, if you know your Royals history. The mid 1980′s to the early 1990′s looks to be the golden era while things started turning for the worse in the late 1990′s. The 2000′s have, of course, been a massive disappointment  The only surprise, for me at least, was 1979-1984. Those six years saw two division titles and three second place finishes. I guess you could describe it as a changing of the guard, from one crop of Royals Hall of Famers to another.

And why not? Factoring in playing time (600 minimum plate appearances) you can make a very credible argument he just put up the worst season in team history. Others have put up poorer numbers for sure, Angel Salazar and Tony Pena Jr come quickly to mind, but they weren’t allowed to continue playing every day, and that’s really the difference between a bad year and a historically awful year. For reasons known only to himself, Ned Yost sent Frenchy to the plate 603 times in 2012. And how did Frenchy reward Yost’s misguided loyalty?

By doing this:

…and this:

September 24, 2012; Detroit, MI, USA; Kansas City Royals right fielder Jeff Francoeur (21) walks back to dugout after striking out during the ninth inning against the Detroit Tigers at Comerica Park. Mandatory Credit: Rick Osentoski-US PRESSWIRE

going to be dealt in the off season for pitching, and hey, somebody had to play right field. I would have preferred one year but I kind of understood Moore’s motivation. Or at least I thought I did. As you know, Myers wasn’t dealt, and was several kinds of awesome this year.

Reasons to keep Myers down ranged from he needed to work on his defense to he needed to cut down on his strikeouts, and my favorite, he wasn’t on the 40 man roster. Whatever. The first two may have been legit but the third one was just noise and wasn’t offered up as an excuse until late in the season.

I found Moore’s comments about not wanting to block young pitchers in 2014 amusing since Frenchy’s contract did exactly that to Myers. If Myers does get traded (Trevor Bauer, anyone?) this winter I think 600 plate appearances for Frenchy next season is an easy prediction to make. Which means with no one to push him for playing time, and his successor no longer in the organization, another contract extension is likely coming.

Jul 4, 2012; Toronto, ON, Canada; Kansas City Royals first baseman Eric Hosmer (35) reacts after striking out for the third time in the sixth inning against the Toronto Blue Jays at the Rogers Centre. The Blue Jays beat the Royals 4-1. Mandatory Credit: Tom Szczerbowski-US PRESSWIRE

Sophomore slumps aren’t new to Royals fans. We’ve seen some of the most talented players in franchise history succumb to it’s vile ways (I’m looking at you, Carlos Beltran and Zack Greinke). I’m fairly confident Hosmer will bounce back and have a great season next year. Baseball history also suggests a bounce back season. Players who put up a similar OPS+ as Hosmer produced at age 21, and then struggled at 22, went on to productive, and in some cases Hall of Fame, careers.

What I was curious the most about was age 23 and how these players performed the year after their season long slump. So I fired up play index and looked at all the players since 1901 who put up an OPS+ in the 110-125 range as a 21 year old in their first or second season (min. 502 plate appearances). I added the second season to account for players who may have been September call ups at age 20. Anyway, PI spit out 21 seasons, not counting Hosmer’s 2011. I then divided the 21 players into two categories – those above league average at age 22 and those below. I ended up with 8 players in the below average group, 7 of which rebounded at age 23. I think you’re going to like some of these names.

Richie Ashburn – Age 21, 123 OPS+ | Age 22, 88 OPS+

Ashburn hit .333/.410/.400 as a 21 year old rookie and finished 3rd in ROY and 11th in MVP voting. He followed his first season with a disappointing .284/.343/.349 line his sophomore campaign. Ashburn rebounded his third year hitting .302/.372/.403 as a 23 year old. Those numbers were good for a 105 OPS+. Now, a 105 OPS+ isn’t particularly impressive in any era but it did get Ashburn back on track to an eventual Hall of Fame career. A Veteran’s Committee selection, but still.

Ron Santo – Age 21, 122 OPS+ | Age 22, 74 OPS+

Santo’s age 22 slash stats were as close to Hosmer’s as you will find.

Santo – .227/.304/.358
Hosmer – .232/.304/.359

Santo simply shook off the terrible season and put up a 128 OPS+ at age 23. He hit .297/.339/.481 with 25 home runs, 99 RBIs and was a first time All Star selection. Another Veteran’s Committee selection, Santo’s long overdue induction into the Hall of Fame occurred this past summer.

George Burns – Age 21, 119 OPS+ | Age 22, 91 OPS+

No, not that George Burns. Burns, the baseball player, put up a 110 OPS+ at 23 in 1916. He was pretty bad at 24 too (78 OPS+) but he posted a 158 OPS+ at 25 and won an MVP award in 1926 when he hit an an impressive 64 doubles. It was actually called the League Award then and an American League player could only win it once. That’s why, despite 47 home runs and a 225 OPS+, Babe Ruth was ineligible. He won the award in 1923.

Delino DeShields – Age 21, 116 OPS+ | Age 22, 94 OPS+

DeShields hit .292/.359/.398 with a 115 OPS+ at age 23. He walked 95 times and stole 56 bases the year before so his age 22 season wasn’t as disappointing as some of the others. If Hosmer had walked that many times we’d view his 2012 season much differently.

Rod Carew – Age 21, 113 OPS+ | Age 22, 95 OPS+

Carew won the Rookie of the Year award at 21 when he hit .292/.341/.409, numbers fairly close to the .293/.334/.465 line Hosmer put up his rookie season. Carew’s .312/.347 OBP/SLG at 22 also were fairly close to Hosmer’s. To say Carew rebounded is an understatement. He wouldn’t post an OPS+ below 100 again until his final season at age 38. At age 23 he hit .332/.386/.467 with a 134 OPS+ and won the first of his seven batting titles. Carew batted over .300 every year from 1969-1983 and ended his career with 3,053 hits and a 134 OPS+. He was a 1991 Hall of Fame selection. I think Hosmer is potentially more Santo than Carew but this is my favorite comp.

Gary Carter – Age 21, 112 OPS+ | Age 22, 66 OPS+

The fourth Hall of Famer on this list (2003) Carter hit 31 home runs with a 138 OPS+ at 23. This was the start of a ten year run where he averaged 25 home runs and a 128 OPS+ a season. Those are phenomenal numbers for a catcher then and now. The 66 OPS+ at age 22 would go down as the second worst of his career.

Garry Templeton – Age 21, 110 OPS+ | Age 22, 91 OPS+

A few years before wearing out his welcome in St. Louis, Templeton put up a 112 OPS+ in 1979 at age 23. He led the NL in hits with 211 and also led in triples for the third consecutive year. After being traded for Ozzie Smith after the 1981 season he apparently forgot how to hit. He had a 104 career OPS+ before the trade but managed a meager 76 OPS+ for the remainder of his career.

And then, there was….

Rick Manning – Age 21, 116 OPS+ | Age 22, 71 OPS+

Manning played 13 seasons in the big leagues but the only seasons with a 100 or higher OPS+ came in his first two (101 at age 20). I suppose this is Hosmer’s worst case scenario but then this would be a lot of players worst case scenario. Manning just wasn’t a very good hitter.

Oct 1, 2012; Kansas City, MO, USA; Kansas City Royals starting pitcher Bruce Chen (52) delivers a pitch in the first inning against the Detroit Tigers at Kauffman Stadium. Mandatory Credit: John Rieger-US PRESSWIRE

Before this year there was only one season in team history where a pitcher tossed 185+ innings with an ERA+ below 85. One season from 1969-2011, and that was Larry Gura, in 1983 (200.1 IP, 83 ERA+). Now there are three. Bruce Chen (191.2, 81) and Luke Hochevar(185.1, 71) are now card carrying members of this club. Overall, Chen was actually just the third 35 year old left-hander since 1901 to have such a season. Gura and Hall of Famer Rube Marquard (198, 78 in 1922) are the other two. While Gura was even worse at 36 years old (77 ERA+) Marquard was much better, posting a 106 ERA+ in 1923. I’m still not a fan of Chen’s but I think his SO/BB numbers suggest he’s legitimate bounce back candidate (as in bounce back to league average).

Luis Mendoza exceeded even the most optimistic of expectations and pitched 166 innings. He was better than Chen and Hochevar but was still below league average. This means that the Royals had three players pitch 162+ innings with ERA+’s less than 100. It’s not an uncommon occurrence overall, they’re the 17th team to accomplish this since 2002, but it had never happened before in Kansas City.

Mendoza performed better than I thought he would but I’m not going to be eating any crow. I maintained that he would be unsuccessful if he didn’t strike more people out. He also walked entirely too many hitters to thrive as a pitch to contact guy. Success came this year when his SO/9 went up and his BB/9 went down. Well maybe I’ll have a small slice since I didn’t think he had it in him to drastically improve his SO and BB rates. He did. Splitting his season in two shows the differences.

4/9 – 6/23: 60 IP, 4.5 SO/9, 4.5 BB/9, 4.95 ERA
6/29 – 10/3: 106 IP, 6.28 SO/9, 2.46 BB/9, 3.82 ERA

If Mendoza can carry those second set of numbers into 2013 he would slot nicely into the back end of the rotation. It’s somewhat similar to the song we sang with Hochevar last winter so there is reason for pessimism.

Innings often fail to tell the whole story because if a pitcher is bad enough he’ll be bounced from the rotation. We’ve seen this many, many times this century (Chris George, anyone?) So ignoring innings, and looking at games started, we find that for the second consecutive season the Royals had five pitchers start 10+ games and end the season below league average. Only the 2006 team had more. Will Smith and Jonathan Sanchez join Chen, Hochevar and Mendoza on this list. Those five pitchers accounted for 73% of the starts this year.

And that, my friends, is how you lose 90 games in a season.

Carlos Beltran hit .444/.542/.944 versus the Nationals and it was his leadoff double in the 9th inning that started the rally that advanced the Cardinals season. Raul Ibanezwas equally as impressive against the Orioles. He hit .444/.500/1.111 but it was his

Oct 8, 2012; St. Louis, MO, USA; St. Louis Cardinals right fielder Carlos Beltran (3) receives a curtain call from the fans after hitting his second home run of the game during the eighth inning of the 2012 NLDS against the Washington Nationals at Busch Stadium. The Cardinals won 12-4. Mandatory Credit: Jeff Curry-US PRESSWIRE

unbelievable heroics in game 3 that forever cemented his legacy as a postseason legend. Beltran and Ibanez, as you well recall, were teammates for three seasons in Kansas City and were members of the last Royals team to finish with a winning record.

I’ve disliked the Yankees since the 1970′s. Royals fans old enough to remember the 1977 ALCS can relate to the pain being felt today by Nationals fans. The Royals took a 3-2 lead into the 9th inning in game 5 but were unable to get the final 3 outs they needed to advance to the World Series. Honestly that actually may be more painful since the Nats would’ve still needed to win four more times to advance to the World Series. The Yankees defeated the Royals in the ALCS three straight years, and even though KC finally beat them in 1980, I haven’t forgotten or forgiven.

My dislike for the Cardinals unsurprisingly dates back to the 1985 World Series. The way they acted post-Denkinger call in game 6 and their tantrums during game 7 was probably enough but the 27 year whinefest that immediately followed just added fuel to the fire.

It’s easy to cheer for Beltran and Ibanez and while it would be cool to see one of them get a ring it would also be nauseating. I was hoping for a Nats/A’s World Series because that would’ve been something different. The last three World Series winners are still alive in this year’s playoffs which is, in fact, the opposite of something different.

Life made me a Royals fan but circumstances have now conspired to make me something I never thought I’d be, a Tigers fan.

Billy Butler just completed his age 26 season so I thought I’d take a look to where his offensive numbers rank compared to the other 26 year olds in Royals history. While I’m a big fan of OPS+ I decided against it being the determining stat. Instead I looked at each player’s numbers across the board and came up with what I feel are the 10 top seasons.

1. John Mayberry

This would be Mayberry’s finest season and his last truly great year. He led the American League in walks and OPS+ and his 34 home runs broke Bob Oliver‘s club record. He would hold the record until Steve Balboni would break it in 1985. Balboni has famously held it ever since. Mayberry followed his best season with his worst. At age 27 he hit just 13 home runs while posting a 94 OPS+.

but there were several question marks. Butler was not one of them. I figured he’d be good for 60+ extra base hits and an on-base percentage north of .360. He accomplished both numbers for the fourth straight year.

September 25, 2012; Detroit, MI, USA; Kansas City Royals designated hitter Billy Butler (16) hits a single during the fourth inning against the Detroit Tigers at Comerica Park. Mandatory Credit: Rick Osentoski-US PRESSWIRE

I understand why Kevin Seitzer will no longer be the team’s hitting coach, and really, I’m okay with it. He was unable to help Eric Hosmer battle his way out of a season long slump and he couldn’t right Mike Moustakas when the third baseman started slumping in early June. Their regression, more than anything, is likely what cost Seitzer his job. They are expected to be offensive cornerstones for the next half decade so 4-6 month slumps are simply unacceptable. Whether it’s deserved it or not the hitting coach will almost always shoulder the blame when young stars under perform.

At the same though, there is something that bothers me about his removal.  The Royals finished 12th in the American League in runs scored and that cannot be laid solely at the feet of Seitzer. Ned Yost and Dayton Moore each made contributions that hampered the offense so they deserve an equal share of the blame.

“A walk, a base-hit and boom — there’s three runs. I think that’s the major difference in philosophy.” -Ned Yost

I’m sorry but when has this ever been Ned Yost’s philosophy? I am happy that he decided to channel his inner Earl Weaver mostly because I never suspected he possessed an inner Earl Weaver. And why would I? A single, a stolen base, a sacrifice bunt, a

Aug 29, 2012; Kansas City, MO, USA; Kansas City Royals third baseman Mike Moustakas (8) is congratulated by hitting coach Kevin Seitzer (left) designated hitter Billy Butler (center) and manager Ned Yost (right) after scoring against the Detroit Tigers in the fourth inning at Kauffman Stadium. Mandatory Credit: John Rieger-US PRESSWIRE

sacrifice fly and boom – there’s one run is more to Yost’s tastes than a three run home run. We watched it play out all year. Nearly half of the team’s sacrifice bunts this year occurred in the first three innings. Eager to score first Yost would play for one run and often would do so with a runner already in scoring position. Couple this with an insanely aggressive base running style that led to too many free outs and you start to see why runs were hard to come by.

The quote above is basically an admission that high on-base and slugging percentages will lead to more runs. Except we know those aren’t the stats the organization values. On more than one occasion a member of the coaching staff or front office expressed amazement that the offense was struggling given the team’s high batting average (.265, 4th best in the AL). Basically this is the part that bothers me about Seitzer’s ouster. If batting average is the money stat, and the team has a high average, then why let the hitting coach go?

“We have to understand the importance of on-base percentage.” —Dayton Moore, October 2008.

Four years later we are still waiting on Moore to understand – not only the importance of on-base percentage – but also how it correlates with runs scored. A quick look at some players he acquired via trade or free agency since uttering this quote shows a distinct lack of understanding. Off to the side are their career on-base percentages at the time of acquisition.

Mike Jacobs – .318
Willie Bloomquist – .322
Coco Crisp – .331
Yuniesky Betancourt – .302
Rick Ankiel – .316
Scott Podsednik – .340
Melky Cabrera – .328
Jeff Francoeur – .310
Yuniesky Betancourt – .292
Humberto Quintero – .268

To be fair, a couple of those moves paid off (Podsednik and Cabrera) but the rest were complete failures. How many general managers in the game today would have let Francoeur and his 81 OPS+ block Wil Myers all year? How many would have allowed Betancourt to come to the plate over 200 times? How many would have carried both those players on their roster? The answer to all three questions is, of course, just one. Dayton Moore.

Kevin Seitzer was the fall guy but – and I can’t stress this enough – he shouldn’t have fell alone.