What’s a manager to do?  Mandatory Credit: Rick Osentoski-USA TODAY Sports

For all the talk of Ned Yost tinkering with lineups, and yeah…when you score 11 runs one night, you might want to just go ahead and stick with that…some of the blame has to be placed squarely on the shoulders of Dayton Moore. When will we have a player hit the big leagues and become an instant star? So far, under the Moore regime, it’s yet to happen, and we could be waiting a while.

Somewhere along the way – either in the scouting and draft day decisions, or in post-draft development, there is some kind of breakdown happening. At first, it looked like it was just the pitching. When that started falling apart, we still had the bats to look forward to: Mike Moustakas, Wil Myers, Eric Hosmer, Johnny Giavotella, and so on. The future looked bright. Well…the future is now, and it’s very possibly not as bright as we’d hoped.

Myers is gone of course, as part of the big James Shields trade. That’s fine. I’m on board with that move. While we won’t reap the benefits of Myers’ bat here in KC, he may never pan out at all, and in the meantime, we’ve got at least two seasons of an ace pitcher. I’m okay with that. My philosophy with prospects is simple: you need them to help your big league club improve. Whether that means they physically do so, or they bring back other players via trade that help…I’m okay with either. Myers developed enough to fetch us a legit ace and a guy in Wade Davis with the potential to be a pretty solid starter himself.

But Moose, Hosmer, and Giavotella…well…they aren’t helping much. At all. And prize homegrown draft pick Bubba Starling is hitting .213 through 35 games in Low A ball. And Christian Colon, the first round pick, who was thought to be a safe bet, is batting .226 through 30 games in Omaha this year. And…well…you get the point.

So where’s the problem? Scouting? Draft strategy? Player development? It’s hard to pin down, and honestly is probably a combination of all three, but there’s definitely something going very wrong between draft day and what happens on the way to the big leagues. If they even make it to the big leagues.

So…you can see where Yost might struggle with the lineup, given that a good chunk of the core players are not living up to their hype. What about Alex Gordon and Billy Butler. Absolutely…they are great players. Drafted by Allard Baird. Lorenzo Cain and Alcides Escobar? Sure. I’ll give the Royals a little credit here. They came over in the Zack Greinke trade, so technically the Milwaukee Brewers mostly developed them, but the Royals did stick with Escobar through some ups and downs in 2011, and he blossomed last season as an all-around player. I guess he was kind of developed by the Royals.

We love George, but fans are getting tired of having to “remember when”…Mandatory Credit: Rick Scuteri-USA TODAY Sports

All that said, I was watching a replay of George Brett’s Hall of Fame induction speech earlier – happy birthday George – and he said something that struck a chord with me. He was talking about Whitey Herzog coming over to manage the Royals, and how Herzog told Brett “You’re going to play third and hit third every day” and what a boost of confidence that gave. So…while the batters are scuffling in the here and now, and running so hot and cold you never know what to expect, maybe it’s time to try the Herzog route. Tell these guys that no matter what, here’s the lineup. No more shuffling Cain from leadoff to second to fifth to sixth. No more “where should Gordon hit?” Just pick a spot. First? Great. Third? Fine.

Some will argue that Yost and the organization have been too patient with some of these guys. But this is the team we’ve got, for better or worse. And hey…don’t get me wrong, I think Moose and Hosmer will probably still be really good ballplayers. It might be later rather than sooner (remember how long it took Gordon to hit his stride), and if that’s the case, this year likely won’t turn out the way team officials and fans envisioned. But remember, when you’re criticizing Yost, he’s not been given the ideal roster to work with here. Ned’s the easy target, of course…but we’ve got to look past the day-to-day management of the big league roster and figure out what’s going wrong with player development, or this fan base will continue facing year after year of frustration.

And yes, I titled this article with the thought of a new season of Arrested Development about to air on Netflix, so go waste 10 minutes. Enjoy.

Cain and Gordon should start things off for this team. Mandatory Credit: Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports

Needless to say…something’s gotta give. This team has shown very little power and continually seems to either squeak by or come up just short. Lately the trend is to squander a good outing by one of the starting pitchers. I think we can all agree that James Shields should have better than a 2-2 record.

If you go back and look at my last dissection of the batting order, you’ll see I used some of the more modern (nerdy? No, I don’t live in my mom’s basement) ways of thinking when stacking the guys up from 1 through 9. I did a simple breakdown at the time, just looking at building one “master” lineup…but the way these guys are hitting – it might be time to consider not only a shuffle in the order, but some platoons. Once again, I’ll lean on ideas borrowed from The Book. And away we go…

I still believe your best hitters should be in the 1, 2, 4, and 5 positions. With the thought that your leadoff guy should have the highest possible OBP, and the way these guys are hitting…I think our new leadoff guy should be Lorenzo Cain. I’m not making this move lightly, as I’ve been a proponent of Gordon as the leadoff guy…but Gordon is flashing some power and Cain is getting on base more often. I’d stick Gordon in the next spot, though…not moving him too far from that top spot in the lineup.

Moose is heating up…is he ready to bat third? Mandatory Credit: Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports

With the top two spots settled, I think our cleanup guy is obviously Billy Butler. After getting off to a pretty slow start, Butler now leads the team in OBP and is third, behind Cain and Gordon, in OPS (these numbers do NOT reflect Wednesday’s game, by the way). But he’s coming on strong.

Our third hitter is a bit tougher to peg. We’ve got Alcides Escobar, Salvador Perez, Mike Moustakas, and Eric Hosmer as the next best hitters in this lineup. Chris Getz and Jeff Francoeur, to the surprise of absolutely no one, bring up the rear and are the most likely candidates to at least be platooned, if not completely replaced, at some point.

The fourth best OPS belongs to Escobar, then we have Perez, and Hosmer. Moose is currently last on the list…but after another pretty impressive game Wednesday night, I think it’s a matter of time before he leapfrogs his way into the mix.

I may be crazy – but combining the way he’s been hitting of late with what is expected of him, I’d put Moose in that third spot versus RHP. Then I think you have to go with (after Butler at cleanup), Perez and Hosmer at 5 and 6. What about Escobar? If he’s not going to hit second anymore, I just can’t see him anywhere from 3 through 6, so we’ll put him at 7. After that, we go with Dyson rather than Frenchy (versus RHP) and then some kind of platoon with Getz and Johnson.

So the lineup versus RHP goes like this:

Lorenzo Cain RF

Alex Gordon LF

Mike Moustakas 3B

Billy Butler DH

Sal Perez C

Eric Hosmer 1B

Alcides Escobar SS

Jarrod Dyson CF

Chris Getz/Elliot Johnson 2B

When I switch it up and fill out the lineup card against southpaws…I think we have to make a few changes. First of all – for the time being, I’m not sure you play Moose versus lefties. And if you do, I don’t think you can bat him third. I’d also go with Frenchy over Dyson in this lineup, and give Elliot Johnson the definite nod at second base, with Tejada getting some time when Moose does play.

With that being said…I think our lineup versus LHP shakes out like this:

Lorenzo Cain CF

Alex Gordon LF

Sal Perez C

Billy Butler DH

Miguel Tejada/Mike Moustakas 3B

Eric Hosmer 1B

Alcides Escobar SS

Jeff Francoeur RF

Elliot Johnson/Miguel Tejada 2B

It’s not a radical shakeup by any means, but it is different – both from my initial idea weeks ago and from what we’ve seen on a daily basis courtesy of Yost. It puts our hitters in (arguably) the right spots, while giving the team a legitimate power threat in that cleanup spot. Cain hasn’t flashed a lot of home run power just yet (I do think it will come) and would be allowed to get on base for Gordon, who was slugging at a .484 clip before hitting another homer Wednesday. Those first two spots are now filled by all-around batters who can work the count, drive the ball, run a bit (Cain can run a LOT), and have a knack for coming up with big hits.

Escobar batting lower in the order gives some protection to Hosmer, who would be batting just ahead of him. Hosmer has a good OBP at .343, but has yet to hit for any power. He won’t generally kill a rally though, and if he can get on base Escobar has a decent shot of following with a hit of his own. Another benefit to moving Escobar down – he’s grounding into a lot of double plays this season, leading the team with 7 so far. Would you rather have him killing a rally with Dyson or Frenchy on deck, or with Butler (or, according to what I’ve sketched out – Moose or Perez) waiting to bat?

When all is said and done, this team still won’t succeed by slugging a combined .390, but a slight shuffle might give them a better chance at scraping together 5 runs instead of 3. Then we just have to hope a couple of these guys start hitting the long ball.

What do you think? Am I nuts? How would you stack the order?

Apr 30, 2013; Kansas City, MO, USA; Kansas City Royals third baseman Mike Moustakas (8) is congratulated by center fielder Lorenzo Cain (6) after Moustakas hit a two run home run in the sixth inning of the game against the Tampa Bay Rays at Kauffman Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports

The month of May will be the ultimate test for the new and improved Kansas City Royals. Beginning with the current series versus the Tampa Rays (which started on April 30), the Royals schedule is stacked with what appears to be one challenge after the next with the exception of a brief respite (knock on wood) when the team visits the Houston Astros for a three game set.

After Tampa leaves town the Royals will face: the Chicago White Sox, Baltimore Orioles, New York Yankees, Los Angeles Angels, Oakland A’s, Houston Astros, the Angels (again), St. Louis Cardinals, and then wind up the month (and carry into June) against the Texas Rangers.

Yikes.

After game two versus Tampa (which is underway as I type this up), the Royals with either be 3 or 5 games above .500 for the season…the question on my mind is this: will they be above .500 on June 1?

The good news is that a couple of these teams are struggling. We already mentioned the lowly Astros. As of this writing, the Angels are just 10-17. The Royals play a combined 10 games against these two opponents, which should help. But…the Angels will have to get hot at some point, won’t they? And the White Sox (this weekend’s opponent) have a losing record – but they are always a thorn in this team’s side.

The Yankees seem beatable with a loaded disabled list. They still sit at 16-10, but the Yankee mystique seems to be lacking this year, and the Royals get them at Kansas City this time around.

The Orioles, Cardinals, and A’s seem like they could be trouble, though. And of course the Rangers are always tough to beat.

It won’t be easy (obviously). The Royals offense has been lacking. For all the talk of a need for pitching last winter, we all just assumed the offense (which was also bad) would get better. That Mike Moustakas and Eric Hosmer would figure it out and round out the lineup with some power. So far…not so much. Although Moose FINALLY had a big game, which included his first 2013 home run, in game 1 versus Tampa.

Apr 30, 2013; Kansas City, MO, USA; Kansas City Royals starting pitcher James Shields (33) delivers a pitch in the first inning of the game against the Tampa Bay Rays at Kauffman Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports

With the upcoming schedule, the Royals are going to have to show more balance than we’ve seen thus far. The starting pitching can’t be leaned on as a crutch every night. The offense has to get more consistent. We are seeing signs that it could happen, but it’s got to happen pretty much every time out there in May. The starting pitching (at least those front three) has to keep it up. We haven’t seen much of Mendoza (though he hasn’t been overly impressive) and Wade Davis is a mixed bag. The rotation is much improved, though, no doubt. With James Shields, Ervin Santana, and Jeremy Guthrie in the rotation, the Royals should avoid any prolonged losing streak.

The fire this team has (which took center stage in Tuesday’s rally against the Rays) is the wild card in all of this, in my opinion. We don’t need every guy to go out and play or pitch a perfect game. We just need a team that refuses to quit. That’s what James Shields brings to the table. Well…that and phenomenal pitching. Shields has instilled a fiery, never say die attitude in this clubhouse. And it might be just enough to carry this team through when slumps strike or (god forbid) injuries hit.

So…where will this team be on June 1? It’s hard to say, but I know this much…it’s going to be a hell of a fun ride. And for the record (you didn’t think I’d cop out on a prediction, did you?), I think when May comes to an end the Kansas City Royals will have a 28-25 record and be very much in the thick of things. Who knows…maybe when they make a trade this year, the team will be helping itself for a change, rather than sending key pieces to playoff contenders. Wouldn’t that be a nice change of pace?

September 24, 2012; Detroit, MI, USA; Kansas City Royals third baseman Mike Moustakas (8) walks back to dugout after striking out against the Detroit Tigers at Comerica Park. Mandatory Credit: Rick Osentoski-USA TODAY Sports

There shouldn’t be much to complain about this year. The Royals are 10-8 right now and sitting in first place. They actually look like a pretty good team. But . . .What about those young bats?

The Royals shipped super prospect Wil Myers and his bat out for pitching, improving a well below average rotation with the hopes of young hitters, specifically Eric Hosmer and Mike Moustakas, making their marks at the plate in 2013. We’d seen flashes of brilliance from both (especially Hosmer) and much of the high hopes for this year were pinned on the dynamic duo. So far, however, not only are the pair not hitting for power (as a corner infielder ideally should) they aren’t hitting much at all.

Brian Henry recently did a nice write-up on Hosmer and pitch selection, and followed with another piece regarding the team’s offensive woes. Hosmer hit a double and walked twice during game one versus Detroit…so I’ll throw the spotlight on Moose this time around. He’s the one I’m more concerned about at this point (although both are worrisome).

Moustakas started hot in 2012 before flaming out over the last half of the season. That slump has apparently not only carried over, but gotten worse. So what gives? To my non-trained eye, it seems like he’s flying open at the plate, not waiting on the ball, but getting out in front and making weak contact. Now…that’s just my opinion, so I figured we better look at some numbers as well.

Going over to Fangraphs for some batted ball info, we see his ground ball/fly ball ratio is low (0.39)…as he’s making weak contact and popping the ball in the air more than anything this year. He’s hitting fly balls 63.3% of the time, with a 19.4% infield fly rate. Further evidence of his weak contact (as if we needed proof) in his 12.2% line drive rate. In 2012, that rate was at 16.4%, and in more limited time in 2011 he posted a line drive rate of just above 20%.

Moving along to pitch type, it looks like pitchers are showing him less of the hard stuff as he picks up at bats. The percentage of four seam fastballs he’s seen has dropped each year, going from 42.5% in 2011 to 32.2% in 2012 on down to 23.6% so far in 2013. At the same time, he’s seen more two seamers and cutters this year…which shows the pitchers making some adjustments to Moustakas as he makes his away around the league again and again. He’s also being given less curves and change-ups, with a slight increase in sinkers and sliders.

Looking at Pitch f/x, and more specifically, pitch values/100, Moustakas showed improvement versus the four seam fastball in 2012, which (obviously) explains why he’s seen less of them. That said, he’s taken a step back against the heater this year. He’s really only handling two pitches at an above average clip in 2013 – the splitter and sinker, which he sees less than 10% of the time combined. He’s been terrible against the two seam and cut fastball, which of course is why he’s seen an increased diet of those pitches.

Given this information, the obvious conclusion is simple: pitchers are figuring what he can’t hit. Not to mention, they’re giving him less to hit. The number of pitches inside the strike zone against Moose have continually declined since he debuted. In 2011, pitchers went after him, throwing 50.9% of their  pitches inside the zone. In 2012, that number dipped to 46.4%, and now Moose sees just 43.1% in the strike zone. That said, he only swings at 32.5% of those pitches thrown out of the zone, which is a 2% improvement from last year. His contact rates have also jumped up this year. So while they aren’t feeding him as many hittable balls, he’s not necessarily chasing them any worse than he has before. While he’s improved a bit in that regard, Moose still ranks (prior to Wedensday’s game) 70 of 98 among qualified AL batters in O-Swing% (percent of outside the zone swings).

The last number I’ll throw at you is F-Strike% (first pitch strike percentage). Moustakas falls behind 0-1 in 66.1% of his at bats. In 2012, that number was 54.1%, which gives him a sizeable decline of 12% thus far.

Miguel Tejada: short term answer at third? Mandatory Credit: Howard Smith-USA TODAY Sports

What it all boils down to, it seems, is this: adjustments are not being made, at least not by Moustakas. The opposing pitchers are most definitely adjusting. And again, to my naked eye, his swing mechanics are all kinds of messed up this year. Seems like a formula of Poor Discipline + Lack of Adjustments + Flawed Mechanics = Trouble. And if he doesn’t figure things out soon, it’s time for the Royals front office to decide whether the combo of Miguel Tejada and Elliot Johnson does less to hurt the team. If the team is better off (for now) finding a work around…maybe it’s time for Moose to head north. A few weeks in Omaha might be just what the doctor ordered.

Cubs Manager Dave Sveum recently made headlines by calling out his players (including star player Starlin Castro), saying players needed to be aware “that there are things that can be done if you don’t start performing.”

Hell…Billy Butler was sent back down at one point, why not Moose?

Moose is not hitting for power…or hitting much at all, so far in 2013. Mandatory Credit: Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports

The Royals batting order is currently suffering from the worst sports related power outage since the Super Bowl. They sit at 8-6 after winning behind the starting pitching in Atlanta, but as of Thursday morning’s team stats (according to Baseball Reference), the Royals have the fourth worst SLG and fifth worst OPS in the American League.

What we’ve confirmed after 14 games is that starting pitching does indeed make a world of difference. For a team who is dead last in home runs in the AL with a whopping 5 (the Braves hit that many against KC in game 1)…pitching has made all the difference in the world. With a little extra pop, the Royals might sit at 10-4 (or at least 9-5) right now. Not a huge difference, I know, but for a team that can’t afford to give away victories, those games we “could’ve” or “should’ve” won will add up.

So…where’s all the power?

Well, so far, Billy Butler (not surprisingly) leads the team with 2 homers…and we have 1 each from Jeff Francoeur, Alcides Escobar, and Chris Getz (who just hit his first ever home run in a Royals uniform). The problem here is…Mike Moustakas, Eric Hosmer, and Salvador Perez have zero. All middle of the order bats, all young guys Dayton Moore is counting on step up in a big way this year…and so far…zilch. And Moustakas doesn’t look remotely good at the plate right now.

Getz and Escobar have flashed more pop than the middle of the order bats…Mandatory Credit: Peter G. Aiken-USA TODAY Sports

What’s the plan moving forward then? Ned Yost has shuffled the lineup around a bit, partly due to some interleague games, partly due to cold (or hot) hitting by certain players. But do we want another season of 4 different lineups every week? Shuffling the hot hitters into key spots and moving the slumping batters down (like the ice-cold Moose, who hit seventh in the second game at Atlanta)? Ideally…no. In a perfect world, we’d have a pretty set lineup – at least with guys we know will produce from leadoff down through the sixth spot in the order.

Here’s what we know: Alex Gordon, Alcides Escobar, and Billy Butler all look like guys we can count on to play their respective roles. Lorenzo Cain (I hesitate to praise him, due to cursing him last year) has looked great so far and has moved into the fifth spot in the lineup. Salvador Perez looks like he will hit…but is he a real cleanup hitter? Probably not…at least not yet.

And then we have Moose and Hosmer. The corner infielders who, in a perfect world would at least combine for 50 homers. Moose, though, has yet to pull out of a tailspin that began midway through the 2012 season, and Hosmer…he looks like he’s got the right approach…but where’s the power? I’m not saying Hos won’t develop into a 25+ home run threat, but when will it happen? This year? Next year? Three years from now? Remember how long Gordon struggled before figuring it out?

How long can this team stay above .500 relying on pitching and defense…squeaking out 1-0 or 3-2 games? There have been flashes of an explosive offense this year…but if the offense can’t pick up the slack, and doesn’t have at least a couple of guys other pitchers are afraid can change the game in one swing…this time might be dealing with the opposite of what has dragged it down in the past. It used to be the pitching stunk and put too much pressure on the offense…now the offense might be so bad the pitching suffers from those side effects.

Hopefully a couple of these guys figure it out, and fast. Until then…I think Yost should consider going outside the box a bit with the lineup and follow the blueprint laid out in The Book (that I mentioned back in February). It would probably come out pretty unorthodox, at least for the time being, but man, for a team coming up woefully short on their plan to hit more homers…something’s gotta give.

Apr 6, 2013; Philadelphia, PA, USA; Kansas City Royals pitcher Greg Holland (56) delivers to the plate during the ninth inning against the Philadelphia Phillies at Citizens Bank Park. The Phillies defeated the Royals 4-3. Mandatory Credit: Howard Smith-USA TODAY Sports

First, the obvious (and not very good) numbers: Holland has a 12 ERA in 4 appearances this year (just 3 innings – like I said – small sample size). He’s yet to give up a home run (which can often inflate a relief pitcher’s stats very easily, given the small amount of innings they throw), but has given up a troubling amount of hits with 5 (averaging 15 hits per 9 IP). Needless to say…that’s less than ideal. Against 20 batters so far this year, Holland has allowed 5 hits and 6 walks, while also striking out 5. That accounts for 16 of the batters faced, meaning so far this year, it’s been feast or famine…if a batter doesn’t strike out, he’s probably getting on base. So what gives?

Jumping over to Fangraphs to look at Holland’s PitchFX, Holland has basically used two pitches this year, the fastball and slider – which is to be expected, as those are his best pitches. The heater is a little off from the past couple of seasons. In 2010 it maxed out at 98.1 MPH before jumping up to 99.7 in 2012. This year his fastest has been 97.2. Not throwing close to 100 MPH is nothing to freak out about, though, if he can just consistently throw it pretty hard. His average velocity is off from 2012 as well, however, down from 96.1 to 94.7 – which is the lowest average velocity he’s posted in any season yet. Now…there’s plenty of time to get those numbers up…he’s probably going to toss between 60 and 70 innings, so he’s got a long way to go.

What jumps right out at me when it comes to the fastball is, for starters, the 71% line drive rate Holland has given up so far. Looking down the line at his numbers, I see major red flag, in that he’s thrown 30 strikes vs. 32 balls with that pitch this year. Not good. He’s all over the map with the fastball, and if he can’t locate that pitch, well, he’s going to be in some big trouble (duh).

I really don’t see anything alarming about his release point. It seems pretty on par with where it was in a successful 2012 campaign, and again, the small sample size doesn’t give us much to dissect. It could simply be that he’s putting too much pressure on himself, and I’m somewhat inclined to believe that the problem with Holland is between the ears. This year comes with a lot of expectations, and with that, a lot of pressure that these younger guys aren’t used to dealing with.

The situation is certainly a bit worrisome, and of course needs monitoring…I’d hate to see it become one of those things where the troubles and self doubt keep compounding and Holland doesn’t dig his way out at all (at least not this year). It happens every year with closers. I think (hope) the Royals will stop trotting him out there to finish off the opposition if he doesn’t get his head on right very soon. The good news? The bullpen is full of guys who can do the job. If Holland needs a chance to get his head on right, the team shouldn’t suffer if someone else is called upon.

Right now, it might even be the smart move to just go with the hot hand for a few games…I hesitate to use the phrase “closer by committee” (as it never seems to work), but it could be a short term answer. I don’t recommend anyone freak out just yet…but a couple of clean innings would go a long way to making me feel a lot better about Holland as the closer this year. Hopefully, in another week, this will all seem like ancient history.

Ervin Santana, on pace to give up about 90 home runs in 2013. But other than that..great game! Mandatory Credit: Jake Roth-USA TODAY Sports

Game two of the 2013 season saw another loss in the young season, and seemingly deflated a fan base hungry for a winner.

Is it too soon to panic? According to the majority of what I witnessed via the Internet and sports radio, the answer is “no”. Seems like a lot of people are already saying, “Same old Royals,” or “Here we go again.”

And I have to admit, today left a bad feeling in the pit of my stomach. Every home run the White Sox smacked over the wall…every base runner stranded by a KC batter…I couldn’t help but feel at least a little despair. The optimist in me wants to look at the positives – Ervin Santana had a great line on the day, if you ignore that three of the hits he allowed were home runs. The Royals had the bases loaded when they needed a rally, which is great, if you ignore they couldn’t get any of those runners across the plate.

It’s early, but many Kansas Citians are saying, “Here we go again.” I guess year after year of failure will eventually beat a fan down like that. It was just a week ago that I was talking to friends and fans and everyone felt pretty good about the 2013 season. A new rotation. Great young hitters. Good defense. This team has it all. Or does it?

With all the focus this winter on improving what has been a bad rotation for quite some time now, maybe the front office overlooked what as a horrible offense last season. In 2012 the KC lineup was only able to outscore two teams in the American League. So much attention was on the failure to develop any homegrown pitching, and the major failures of the starting rotation, that little attention seems to have paid to the lineup. I understand why. We have a couple of proven guys in Alex Gordon and Billy Butler and a group of youngsters who are expected to come into their own. But…so far…they haven’t.

The Royals can’t seem to get out of their own way. Mandatory Credit: David Banks-USA TODAY Sports

Here we are, yes…I know…only two games into the season, with a lineup full of players flailing at bad pitches, not making solid contact, and unable to drive in runs. So far, the team hasn’t had one base hit that has driven in a run. Butler had an RBI on a ground out, and the other run was given to the Royals by poor Chicago defense.

I’m not sure where the fix is in the lineup, but am I the only one who thinks Butler should hit cleanup? Let one of the youngsters hit third and benefit from having Billy hit behind them? I’m not a proponent of the Bob Boone “different day, different lineup” approach…but it might be time to shuffle one or two guys around. Both of these games could have been won with a little offense…a little timely hitting. But here we sit…zero wins, two losses, and a lineup that, at least so far, looks just as bad as it did last season.

And I have to say, turning to Hochevar out of the bullpen didn’t help. In fact, it felt a little like a kick in the crotch. Talk about sucking any and all hope out of your fans…I actually felt nauseous when he took the mound. Something about Luke Hochevar just reeks of failure. Can someone please just make him go away?

Here’s the thing. These were just two games in a LONG season. But, I will admit, I’m disappointed. If the Royals bats don’t come alive against Chicago and continue struggling in Philadelphia…my attitude towards this team will start turning from disappointed to devastated. That’s when I might join the masses and panic a little bit.

Same old Royals? God, I hope not. But if they don’t get a couple of wins on this road trip? Well, if you thought the fans sounded bad after two losses…I can’t imagine how they’ll sound if KC is 0-3…or worse. On the other hand, if the fans are this riled up, at least we know they care. Imagine how they’d support a winner. Hopefully, we’ll find out.

February 21, 2013; Port Charlotte, FL, USA; Tampa Bay Rays outfleder WIl Myers (60) poses for a picture during photo day at Charlotte Sports Park. Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports

Remember Wil Myers? Of course you do. For some of you, it’s still an open wound. You’re still heartbroken. He’s like that old girlfriend/boyfriend you always wonder about (is he the one that got away?). And with all the spring training battles coming to an end, it’s easy to let your mind wander and wonder again.

KC fans loved him. Some still aren’t sold on “the trade.” And…I guess with good reason, to a degree. He was the best Royals prospect. He’s still highly rated by Baseball America and just about every other prospect ranking website/magazine guru out there. If you Google Wil Myers, you’ll see links that contain phrases like “No. 1 fantasy prospect” or “Wil Myers tops fantasy baseball 2013 rookies.” You’ll see (off to the right of your screen) a heading that says “People also search for,” which is followed by the names Jake Odorizzi, James Shields, Wade Davis, and Mike Montgomery.

So yes…Myers is still a name that KC fans think about and the Royals are still somewhat connected to their former future star. But should we care? Isn’t it time to move on? This isn’t a movie…we aren’t Martin Blank, going back to our ten-year high school reunion to rekindle something with Debi Newberry (Grosse Point Blank reference if you are too lame to get it). Wil Myers is gone for good. There is no future. No reunion. No rekindling.

March 6, 2013; Scottsdale, AZ, USA; Kansas City Royals starting pitcher James Shields (33) throws in the first inning during a spring training game against the Arizona Diamondbacks at Salt River Fields at Talking Stick. Mandatory Credit: Rick Scuteri-USA TODAY Sports

Lucky for Royals fans, though, we did get something nice in return to help us move on. Shields is the ace of a revamped pitching rotation, while Davis gets his shot at starting again now that he’s out of Tampa. Both are key figures in the Royals attempt to compete in 2013. Both are important to KC’s hopeful return to relevance.

We can argue and ask “what if” all day long. What if Myers was in right field instead of Jeff Francoeur? What if Myers becomes a perennial All-Star? What would our lineup be like with Myers hitting .290 with 30 home runs? Well…what if? What if he did in fact do all that for the Royals, but the rotation still featured underwhelming pitchers like Luke Hochevar, Bruce Chen, and (insert name of just about any pitcher from the last decade not named Zack Greinke here). What if we had kept Myers and kept this franchise on the same course? That’s the scenario that bothers me. Not “What if Myers is a stud?” but “What if this team never went for it?”

It’s time to move on. Let’s not worry about Wil anymore. That ship has sailed. Let’s concentrate on the guys we still have, and the guys we’ve brought on board this offseason. There is a lot to like about the current roster. If you believe in WAR (and I do), Fangraphs had Alex Gordon as the sixth most valuable position player in the American League last season. Billy Butler was an All-Star (a REAL All-Star) and won the Silver Slugger. Of course there is a lot to like about guys like Mike Moustakas, Salvador Perez, Alcides Escobar, Eric Hosmer, and Lorenzo Cain. And I’ve already mentioned the revamped pitching rotation.

And the river of prospects hasn’t exactly dried up. We’ve still got Kyle Zimmer, Yordano Ventura, Bubba Starling, Adalberto Mondesi, and so on. I’ve wondered for a while now, “why can’t we win now AND build for the future simultaneously?” Well, it appears that’s exactly what’s happening in Kansas City.

So get over it. Breaking up is hard to do? Nah. It’s not like we just traded Jermaine Dye for Neifi Perez. If you love something set it free, right? Well, let’s “Free Willy” and be happy to have guys like James Shields suiting up in Royal Blue this year. This trade is already a “win” in my opinion. What Myers does in the future won’t sway my thinking…it won’t become a bigger win, nor will it turn into a loss. It was a perfectly fine trade that helped both teams. I don’t care if Myers fails or succeeds. If he does hit .290 with 30 homers, more power to him. If he doesn’t become an All-Star, well…that’s fine, too. It doesn’t matter to me anymore. You have to give something to get something, right? That’s what this trade was – two teams giving value for value. Now let’s focus on the Royals and let the Rays fans worry about Wil.

Opening Day is just around the corner, and there is some real enthusiasm surrounding this team. Maybe when September rolls around and the scoreboard commands us to “Make Some Noise” there will be some actual excitement behind the screams. Maybe there will actually be something on the line for the first time in a very long time. If this team gets on the right track in 2013, Myers will be a footnote in Royals history. The next generation of fans will ask, “Wil who?”

Bo knows Hall of Fame?

Most Royals fans have probably seen the ballot by now. While there are a couple of names that stand out as fairly solid candidates, the 2013 Royals Hall of Fame ballot is also a sad commentary on a period of Royals baseball that was not so Hall of Fame-ish.

Yes. You saw it right. We’ve got Emil Brown, Jimmy Gobble, and even Runelvys “Fat Elvis” Hernandez! Yikes.

We do have some names like John Wathan, Bo Jackson, Darrell Porter, and Kevin Seitzer on the board. Al Fitzmorris, one of the original 1969ers, is there. Outfielders Al Cowens and Jermaine Dye, a more recent bright spot, is on the ballot. But are any of these guys HOF material? Hard to say.

I think the best way to do this, given the time of year, is via bracket. Time to go March Madness on the Royals HOF.

There are 10 candidates up for election this year, so we need to get creative. Let’s find the four most undeserving candidates and match them up in our two play-in games. This should be easy. Right off the bat, we can select Brown, Gobble, and Hernandez. Looking at everyone else, judging off time spent as a Royals player, their total WAR during that span (according to Baseball Reference) and their WAR per 162, it looks like the fourth person involved in the play-in games will be John Wathan.

Let’s pair them off and have the pitchers and hitters face each other. First we have the pitchers, Runelvys Hernandez vs. Jimmy Gobble. Hernandez pitched four seasons for the Royals and had a WAR of 3.3 during that stretch, while Gobble only managed a 1.1 WAR in six years. I can’t believe I’m saying this, but Runelvys wins (something he rarely did as a pitcher).

The next battle features Emil Brown and fan fave John Wathan. Brown only spent three years in the Royals outfield, and had a 1.4 WAR. During his decade as a Royals player, Wathan managed a 3.7 WAR. At first glance, looks like a Wathan win. However, since Wathan had such an advantage on seasons played, we’ll look at WAR per 162. Brown managed a 1.1 WAR per 162 with Wathan posting a 1.4. Looks like team Wathan just knocked down a three at the buzzer.

With that settled, we’ll seed the bracket by total WAR as a Royals player. The matchups are as follows:

(1) Kevin Seitzer vs. (8) Runelvys Hernandez

(4) Al Cowens vs. (5) Jermaine Dye

(3) Al Fitzmorris vs. (6) Bo Jackson

(2) Darrell Porter vs. (7) John Wathan

The #1 seed, but is he good enough? Mandatory Credit: Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports

In the first game of the day, the top seeded Team Seitzer knocks off Hernandez easily, winning in blowout. Sadly, it’s the last we’ll see of the Fat Elvis team mascot in this tourney. His halftime show (which was actually just Hernandez doing a kung fu exhibition in a white sequined jumpsuit), was the highlight of this matchup.

The next game, dubbed “Battle of the Backstops”, saw Porter get out to a 12-point lead by halftime. However, Wathan’s experience as a player in KC (six more years than Porter) drew him within just a few points with less than two minutes left in the game. With momentum going his way, Wathan relied on his managerial experience (during five seasons as the Royals skipper, he had a .515 win percent) and coached his team to a one-point victory. Wathan could be the Cinderella story in 2013…

Al Cowens versus Jermaine Dye was a close one. Cowens boasts a 10.5 total WAR with the Royals and a 2.7 WAR/162, while Dye has a 9.5 total and 2.9 WAR/162. Hard to say who gets the edge here…they even played roughly the same amount of time in Royal Blue, with Cowens at six seasons and Dye with five. With less than a minute on the clock, Cowens relies on his 5 WAR from 1977 (the highest single season WAR for either player) and sinks two free throws to win the game. The four seed advances to face Seitzer in round two.

In the final game of round one, a tenacious Bo Jackson relies on raw athleticism to hang with Fitzmorris. Fitz has a 14.2 WAR from his eight seasons in KC, with a 3 WAR/162. Jackson, meanwhile, only played five years with the Royals for a 6.2 WAR and 2.5 WAR/162. But have you seen this guy play? Bo makes one amazing play after another…wowing the crowd, keeping them glued to their seats. Just as the game starts getting out of hand, though, there is a tragic turn of events. With Jackson out to a 15-point lead, he crumbles suddenly to the floor. A nasty looking fluke of an injury leaves the KC crowd silenced. It was about the most deflating thing you could ever imagine. Unable to go at 100%, Jackson faltered, allowing Fitzmorris to scratch his way back into the game and eventually pull out a win. “It’s a miracle,” said Fitzmorris. “Hallelujah.” 

At last, here we are…the Final Four. Seitzer, the top seed, takes on Al Cowens, while Fitzmorris is matched up against Cinderella nominee John Wathan. Once again, we see the top seed, Kevin Seitzer, roll to victory…his career average (as a Royal) of .294 and OBP of .380 proving too much for Cowens to overcome.  The second matchup sees Wathan taking it to Fitzmorris. Wathan is relentless in the second half, while Fitzy just seems to run out of steam in the end. Cinderella wins again.

After two hard fought rounds of HOF Madness, it all boils down to Seitzer and Wathan. Seitzer jumps out to an early lead, picking his spots and scoring at will. No big plays here…just chipping away, hitting the easy shots, taking what Wathan gives him. Wathan, however, tough as nails, knows how to run the floor. A gritty player with a mind for the game…he takes advantage of some poor defense from Setizer and eventually evens the score.

As regulation draws to a close, the score is knotted at 74. Needing 75% of the vote for induction, the players decline to play overtime, saying if they can’t earn induction in regulation, they don’t deserve enshrinement in the Hall. The most dynamic player on the ballot, they agree, is Jackson. Maybe, eventually, Bo can fight his way into the Hall of Fame. I mean, he just might be the most famous Royal of all…even more than Brett and White and Saberhagen. Surely he belongs? It’s just too damn bad about that injury…

Is Smith the man for the job? Mandatory Credit: Peter G. Aiken-USA TODAY Sports

You’d think the battle for the fifth rotation spot just got a little more clear, but no, not just yet. As we all know, Luke Hochevar, banished to the bullpen, is out of a three-horse race that should be down to just two, but instead, there are four? It was my understanding there would be no math…

We already knew about Bruce Chen and Luis Mendoza, but since I last broached the subject, Will Smith has continued pitching brilliantly in Surprise, and according to reports, top prospect Yordano Ventura may be in the mix.

Even with Hochevar involved, I thought this battle was a coin toss between Mendoza and Chen, with a possible nod to Chen (being a veteran and a lefty), but now…I’m wondering why not Smith? This spring, Smith has made three appearances for a total of 7 innings pitched. In that small sample size, he’s mowed down 8 batters and walked only 1. He’s only allowed 2 hits as well, which all adds up to a 0.429 WHIP and 1.29 ERA. Going back to the Baseball Reference “Quality of Opposition” tool once again, Smith’s number is at a 9.5 of a possible 10…meaning he’s gone up against some pretty damn good hitters.

I thought Chen’s throwing arm would be a big plus…being the sole lefty candidate in the battle, but Smith being a southpaw negates that advantage. With the Royals trying to win this year, they no longer need to go with a stopgap, a tag you could slap on either hurler (Smith as the young unproven pitcher, Chen in the role of “over the hill” veteran). Smith is 13 years younger than Chen and still on his way up (hopefully). He’s more of an unknown, sure, but with a world of untapped potential. Chen, on the other hand, is past his prime. We know what Chen is capable of.

For the record, Chen currently sits at 8.2 IP, 7 hits, 2 BB, 8 K, and 6 earned runs. His WHIP isn’t bad at 1.038, but his 6.23 ERA fails to impress. His quality of opposition also sits about a full point below Smith’s at just 8.6. That means Chen is getting lit up by a mix of AAA and lower end big league talent for the most part.

What of right-hander Luis Mendoza? I previously stated he should probably be the front-runner in this battle. He’s gone just 6 innings with the Royals this spring (thanks to the World Baseball Classic) but has looked sharp. He’s given up 6 hits and 1 walk, struck out 4, and given up just 1 earned run for a 1.167 WHIP and 1.50 ERA. With Mexico, Mendoza only logged a couple of innings, but got knocked around a bit, giving up 2 BB and 3 hits for a 2.50 WHIP, although he posted an ERA of zero.

Going by the stats this spring, it looks to be a race between Mendoza and Smith…but they say numbers don’t necessarily win these battles, so Chen is definitely still in the mix. And then, there’s the wild card. Yordano Ventura?

I personally don’t think there is a chance “Ace” Ventura vaults all the way from AA past this trio, but stranger things have happened. Reports say he’s in the mix, and will receive more innings as a starter now that Luke is in the pen. So let’s take a look at his spring stats.

The first thing that jumps out at me? Ventura’s quality of opposition is a 9.6 – a notch above Smith. But how is the young phenom, who only has 29.1 innings above A ball, performing against such stiff competition? Well…he’s doing a stellar job, actually. In his 8.2 innings, he has allowed 4 hits and 2 BB (0.692 WHIP), and has struck out 6 batters. Ventura has allowed 2 earned runs, giving him a 2.08 ERA.

Oh, and he pitched so well the other day, the home plate umpire couldn’t even believe it.

Is flame throwing Yordano Ventura really in the mix?. Mandatory Credit: Jake Roth-USA TODAY Sports

What does all this add up to? Does he have a chance? Again…I doubt it, but I don’t think he could pitch any better than he has this spring. With hardly any time at AA last year, I think Ventura is headed north, to Omaha (at least for now). It certainly gives us all something to be hopeful about, though, and he could be called up sooner rather than later, depending on how things go with the other candidates. One thing is certain – his stuff is filthy, and that fastball will be hard to keep off the roster for too much longer.

So…when you add it all up, where do we stand? I’d like to see Mendoza get his shot. He had a great second half of 2012, pitched great winter ball, and is throwing great again in Arizona. I still think Yost could lean towards Chen or Smith based on wanting a lefty, and if that’s the case I am rooting for Smith. He’s young and hungry and pitching better than any other person we’ve discussed here. What’s the worst thing that could happen? He stinks it up for a few starts and gets replaced by one of the other guys?

The Royals have to go with their best five, no doubt. No more throwing the young guy out there for the hell of it or going with a veteran placeholder. The team wants to compete right now. And right now, Smith might be the best guy for the job. Will he be that guy that guy two weeks – or two months – from now? We’ll find out soon enough.

Feb 21, 2013; Surprise, AZ, USA; Kansas City Royals starting pitcher Will Smith (53) poses for a picture during photo day at the Royals Spring Training Facility. Mandatory Credit: Jake Roth-USA TODAY Sports

On Wednesday, the Royals beat up on the Arizona Diamondbacks and decided, “This streak goes to 11.”  Alex Gordon, James Shields, and Will Smith all shined, with Shields and Smith combining for 5 scoreless innings. Gordon gunned a runner down at third base (what else is new?) and went 3-for-4 with a grand slam. Not too shabby!

It was nice to see Shields go multiple innings after throwing only one in his debut. He breezed through mostly trouble free. In the first inning, Diamondbacks rookie speedster Adam Eaton caused a little trouble, laying down a bunt that was fielded by Shields, who then made a throwing error to first base. Eaton, though, was eventually thrown out on the bases. Shields went on to toss three innings, gave up three hits, zero walks, and struck out two.

Shields gave way in the fourth to the very hot Will Smith. The lefty continued pitching well, going two innings of no hit baseball. He walked a batter and struck out two. He finished the day with an ERA of just 1.29 thus far in Arizona.

While, again, its only spring training, Smith’s performance gives reason for optimism. Baseball Reference is tracking spring stats this year, and thanks to their handy “quality of opposition” tool, each player’s performance can be put into context based on the type of players they face. The scale goes from 1-10, with anything more than 9 considered big league talent. Before today’s game, Smith boasted a 9.6 on the scale, meaning he’s had some great success against some pretty solid hitters. I don’t think he’s got a chance, but if he keeps this up, maybe he should be in the mix for that fifth rotation spot.

March 6, 2013; Scottsdale, AZ, USA; Kansas City Royals starting pitcher James Shields (33) throws in the first inning during a spring training game against the Arizona Diamondbacks at Salt River Fields at Talking Stick. Mandatory Credit: Rick Scuteri-USA TODAY Sports

Today was fun. Two of the players KC will count on most this year, Gordon and Shields, had great games, and I’m feeling good after this win. I will admit I’m an eternal optimist when it comes to the Royals, but I have to say this year’s optimism comes with a feeling of legitimacy. Every year, I come into spring training optimistic. Not necessarily thinking the team will be good (although I always try figuring out what has to go right for them to win the division, which usually ends with my head exploding), but that I’ll witness a break through season from the young players. An optimism that says, “We probably won’t win THIS year…but if a couple of these guys succeed and we have another good draft…”

This year though? It kind of feels like we’re on to something here. The success in Arizona feels real, like it will carry over. These guys are loose. They’re having fun. The pitching looks good. The defense looks good. The bats look good. What’s not to like? I know some of us think the Royals are waiting for the regular season to unload the type of losing streak that won’t just ruin your week…but suck the life out of an entire season. I say we just enjoy this ride and stick with the optimism. At least for now.

Feb 21, 2013; Surprise, AZ, USA; Kansas City Royals starting pitcher Luke Hochevar (44) poses for a picture during photo day at the Royals Spring Training Facility. Mandatory Credit: Jake Roth-USA TODAY Sports

With each pitcher having made an appearance at this point, seems like a decent time to start tracking the fight for the fifth rotation spot between Luke Hochevar, Bruce Chen, and Luis Mendoza.

For whatever reason, it seems like Hochevar has a leg up in this race. Management keeps telling us how he’s got the right stuff (Click the link? You’re welcome), that he will put it all together, and so on. Chen is the guy who isn’t great, but is adept at pitching with what he’s got. Not the most talented of three, but when he’s on, he’s pretty good. Plus, he’s a lefty, which KC doesn’t currently have in the rotation. Smart money says one of these two will wind up with the job, so that’s where we’ll start.

Fittingly, Hochevar and Chen piggybacked off each other against the Milwaukee Brewers in their first action of 2013. Luke started, followed by Francisley Bueno, and then Chen. Luke lasted 1.2 innings, not quite making it the full two we expected, and with good reason. He struggled (though Ned Yost will claim otherwise), giving up a hit and 3 walks while striking out 2. He faced 7 batters and needed 38 (20 thrown for strikes) pitches to get 5 outs.

In the fourth inning, Chen took the mound and did manage a full 2 innings. He gave up no hits, walks, or runs and also struck out 2. Chen threw 28 pitches, with 21 strikes, showing good command and staying in the strike zone. I’d say the edge here goes to Chen.

Neither had to face batters like Ryan Braun or Aramis Ramirez, which makes Chen’s performance a little less impressive, perhaps…but what does that say about Hochevar?

While Chen easily outpitched Hochever, Mendoza has perhaps been most impressive thus far. He went 4 innings against the Texas Rangers, using 66 pitches (46 strikes) to get his 12 outs. He did give up a run on 4 hits and a walk, giving him a WHIP of 1.25 for the day, but also struck out 2 batters.

What does this all mean? Well, probably nothing, really. At least not yet, anyway. But the fact that Hochevar is likely the front-runner is a little disconcerting to most fans. On my way home from work Thursday night, Joel Goldberg (Fox Sports KC) was interviewed and asked to speak on the topic. He confirmed what we as fans are afraid of – the job is probably Luke’s to lose. Joel went on, telling the radio host, who kept going over statistics, the choice is not likely to be decided by the numbers. And why is that? Because the stats don’t reflect what coaches see.

Here we go again…back to the battle of stats (also known as a great way to measure actual results) versus a scout’s eye or manager’s gut feeling. Didn’t I just read something regarding this topic?

The fact of the matter is this: this battle should have no favorite, and if there is one, it certainly shouldn’t be Luke. If anything, Mendoza has earned the right to be considered the man to beat.  Yes, the 29-year old AAA veteran has, in my opinion, elbowed his way past the two major league veterans.

Feb 21, 2013; Surprise, AZ, USA; Kansas City Royals starting pitcher Luis Mendoza (39) poses for a picture during photo day at the Royals Spring Training Facility. Mandatory Credit: Jake Roth-USA TODAY Sports

Last season Mendoza pitched 166 innings for the Royals, by far his biggest workload in the majors. After a bumpy start, something clicked, and he became a steady contributor on the mound. Maybe the steadiest starter KC had, outside of late addition Jeremy Guthrie. Mendoza had a 1.416 WHIP on the year, struck out 104 (not too impressive), and walked only 59. He finished the year with an 8-10 record and a 4.23 ERA. Not too shabby…especially if he can do it as a fifth starter.

How did the two vets stack up? Chen managed 191.2 innings in 2012, finishing the year with a 1.367 WHIP, which was better than Mendoza’s, but an ERA of 5.07, which was much worse. He also had better strike out and walk rates, but gave up home runs a twice the rate.

Hochevar? Well…Luke went 185.1 innings and also put up better strike out and walk rates. He had a worse WHIP (barely) at 1.419 and the most god awful ERA this side of Jonathan Sanchez. Luke, who gave up homers at about the same rate as Chen, crossed the finish line last year with an ERA of 5.73.

The most important difference, in my opinion, is that Mendoza, in addition to keeping the team in ballgames, is on an upswing in his career. He’s coming off two straight seasons of great success. We just reflected on his 2012 numbers, but going back to 2011, he dominated in AAA with a 12-5 record, 2.18 ERA, and 1.247 WHIP. He followed that up with two solid starts in the big leagues, going for a total of 14.2 innings. He posted a 2-0 record, 1.23 ERA, and 1.091 WHIP. If you add those starts to his 2012 numbers, Mendoza has a total of 180.2 innings, a 3.99 ERA, and 1.389 WHIP.

Chen hasn’t been terrible, either. In his last three years with KC, he’s compiled 487 innings, a 35-29 record, 4.40 ERA, and 1.349 WHIP. And, as I mentioned earlier, he’s a lefty, which might give him a little edge.

What of our front-runner? Hochevar, the former number one overall draft pick, has been nothing short of a failure. Since we only looked at the previous three years for Chen, I’ll do the same for Luke (which excludes his 6.55 ERA from 2009). In the last three seasons, Hochevar has racked up 486.1 innings (on pace with Chen), a 25-33 record, 5.11 ERA, and 1.365 WHIP.

It would be one thing if Luke was a good pitcher coming off a bad year, but he’s a chronically bad pitcher coming off yet another bad year. Chen wasn’t much better in 2012, but Hochevar has never had a season as good as Chen’s best. Mendoza was trending up a bit, while the other two were trending down. Still, it’s a tough call between Chen and Mendoza, but Luke should be the one with something to prove, not the other way around.

The good news? Last year, all three would’ve been a lock for the rotation. This year, there can be only one.

Kyle Zimmer – with Myers gone, he’s the top dog. Mandatory Credit: US Presswire File Photo

Baseball America has released its Top 100 Prospects, and of course the first name that draws interest from Royals fans is probably former prospect Wil Myers, now a member of the Tampa Rays system after being shipped out as part of the package that brought over James Shields and Wade Davis (and Elliot Johnson).

But we are all ready to move past Myers, aren’t we? (He ranks fourth on the list, if you’re curious). So let’s take a look at what other Royals prospects made the list.

First up is Kyle Zimmer, who sits at 24 on the list. Zimmer is, of course, the best pitcher in the system now (potentially) after being drafted in the first round by KC last year. Zimmer, 21, is a righty who currently ranks out pretty well on the 20-80 scouting scale. His fastball sits at 70, curve at 65, and his changeup at 55. He also ranks pretty well with his control, currently a 65, and his command is a 55.

Zimmer pitched briefly in Rookie ball last year before a promotion to Low A. In all, he threw 39.2 innings and mowed batters down, with a 9.53 K/9. In addition to his 42 strikeouts, he only walked 8 batters. Though very brief, it wasn’t a bad debut. Most reports have him on the fast track to the big leagues, and Baseball America agrees, with an ETA of 2014.

Next up, at 35 on the list, is homegrown super-athlete Bubba Starling. Bubba is an outfielder, and is a pretty raw talent. He was drafted in 2011, but has seen limited action so far in professional baseball. Going again to the 20-80 scale, his athleticism is what shines through with a 70 rating on both power and speed. His defense and arm both rate out at 60, while his bat is a little lower at 50, which rates out as an average big leaguer.

As I mentioned, Bubba’s seen limited time as a player since being drafted, not playing at all in 2011. In 2012, he played for Burlington at the Rookie level and hit .275 in 200 AB. He also managed 10 homers and 10 stolen bases and had an .856 OPS. The power and speed are definitely there…what remains to see is how good of an overall hitter he will become. But if he’s got game changing home run and stolen base potential…he doesn’t need to bat .300, or even .270.

Bubba Starling Takes a Swing For Team USA (mlb draft insider)

For what it’s worth – and this isn’t a fair comparison as they are different types of players – Myers bat rates as 60, power 70, speed 45, defense 55, and arm 60. Which outfielder will prove to be the better player? Only time will tell, but if you put any stock in these ratings…KC potentially kept the better outfield prospect when they traded for Shields and Davis.

Bubba’s still a couple of years away, with Baseball America looking for a 2015 debut. Personally, I think it might be 2016.

The last Royals prospect to make the cut, ranked at 85, is Yordano Ventura, a pretty familiar name around KC. Ventura, like Zimmer, is also a righty and is just 21. Unlike Zimmer (6’3, 215), Ventura stands in at 5’11 and is only 180 pounds. Some scouts think his smaller size makes him a better bullpen candidate, but the Royals seem determined to give him every chance to start – and they should, given his electric stuff.

Ventura’s fastball rates a 75 on the scouting scale, which is definitely elite. His curve is a 60, which is a above average, and his change sits right at 50. Not a bad arsenal, but for that fastball to truly be effective, his secondary stuff has to be good, and that change could definitely improve just a bit. His control and command are about average as well, rating out at 55 and 50, respectively.

As for his track record, Ventura has been pitching in pro ball since 2009 and worked his way up to AA in 2012, also pitching for the international team in Kansas City in the Futures Game. He had his roughest time in AA, where he posted a 3.99 ERA and 1.23 WHIP, but managed 25 strikeouts in his 29.1 AA innings. On the downside, he also walked 13. Not an impressive K/BB ratio, but for his career, spanning 280.2 minor league innings, he has a BB/9 rate of 2.85 and a K/9 of 9.62 – pretty impressive stuff.

Yordano Ventura pitching in the 2012 Futures Game. Mandatory Credit: Bob Ellis

With Ventura the sky is the limit, but he’s going to have to work on his control and command while refining at least one of those secondary pitches a bit more. But with two above average pitches, including what could be one of the better fastballs in the big leagues; he’s still an exciting prospect to keep an eye on. BA has his ETA as 2014, which could be an exciting year for young starting pitching in KC with both Ventura and Zimmer expected to be knocking on the door.

None of these guys are top five like our former standout Myers, but they could be by the end of this year. Yeah, we gave up a potentially great one in Myers for immediate big league improvement…but the cupboard isn’t exactly bare in KC.

KC is counting on a healthy Cain in 2013. Mandatory Credit: John Rieger-USA TODAY Sports

“Not again,” seems to be the loudest groan heard from Royals fans via the internet. We are barely into spring training, and Lorenzo Cain, 2012′s oft-injured center fielder, is already hurt again.

Fans are worried with somewhat good reason, as Cain’s first full season (well, not if you count all the injuries) in KC saw him injured, re-injured, and injured yet again in 2012. This wasn’t the introduction to Royals fans Cain had hoped for, and has resulted in a reputation as an injury prone player. Fairly or not, fans have labeled him and are already starting to pile on.

Has Cain earned his new “paper doll” reputation? It would appear, from his history in pro ball, that he has not. Looking back over his career (mostly in the minor leagues) it seems Cain has been a pretty sturdy, reliable player. In 2006, he had 603 plate appearances, followed by seasons with 533 and 550 trips to the plate in 2007 and 2008. The first drop in playing time for Cain came the following year, as he only tallied 232 PA in 60 games. In 2010, he was back on track playing 84 games while splitting time in AA and AAA, then playing another 43 for the Brewers after a promotion to the big leagues.

The following winter, Cain was traded to Kansas City as part of the Zack Greinke deal. He spent 2011 in Omaha and managed to play 128 games and getting to the plate 549 times that season (adding another 23 PA in 6 games for the Royals that year).

This track record shows that over the course of seven professional seasons, Cain only missed significant time once (2009). But, for most fans, what they see is what they believe. The average fan doesn’t know, and doesn’t care, what Cain did in the past. Their introduction to Cain came in 2012, and it wasn’t pretty. Groin, hamstring, and hip injuries kept Cain out of commission for the better part of the season, as he only managed to play 61 games. Starting off 2013 with an injury (no matter how minor) is going to send up a red flag.

Jarrod Dyson – Plan B. Mandatory Credit: Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports

Should fans be worried, though? Should Cain be stamped “fragile”? Honestly…it’s hard to say. There are guys in every sport who seem to have a knack for hurting themselves. I have a feeling in this case, though, judging from what I’ve seen reported, this latest injury to the hand is nothing to lose sleep over. Just a bit of bad luck that happened to – let’s face it – the last guy on this roster who needed yet another injury. Another bit of bad luck that gives fans reason to be skeptical.

I’m going to hold off on judgment at this point. Cain’s history is that of a pretty durable outfielder. His 2012 string of injuries were to his legs. This latest injury (if we can really call it that, at this point) is to his hand. While I’d prefer not to have to address an injury at all, at least it’s not a re-injury of something from last year. Seems to me it’s just a bit of bad luck. Let’s hope so…because Cain looks much better roaming center field than he does as a name on the disabled list. Just in case, though, let’s hope Jarrod Dyson is ready to play some ball.

Gordon should remain at the top of the order. Mandatory Credit: Rick Osentoski-USA TODAY Sports

Piggybacking off a great Marcus Meade article regarding flawed logic and proper use of talent…I thought I’d take a closer look at how the batting order should shake out this year.

The “rules” of the lineup generally dictate a speed guy at the top, a decent bat handler in the second spot…a guy who can slap the ball around, bunt, etc. Then of course your best hitter slots in at three, with the best power hitter in the cleanup spot, and so on, and so on. Not all teams follow this blueprint, though. Sometimes due to a forward thinking manager, and sometimes out of necessity.

This team, for example, has gone with Alex Gordon at leadoff, who many would argue is not  your typical leadoff man. He’s not a prolific base stealer. He’s got some good pop in his bat, which most would argue belongs in the middle of the order. He has, however, been very productive out of the spot and I’m not ready to cave to the old school train of thought. As we’ve shown over the past few months HERE (Jeff Parker) and HERE (yours truly), at least a couple of us like the idea of leaving him as the leadoff batter. I bring up the Alex Gordon debate to highlight different school of thought. Where, according to a more sabermetric approach, should Alex (and everyone else, for that matter) hit?

In a book titled, well, The Book, authors Tom Tango, Mitchel Lichtman, and Andy Dolphin have done extensive research on topics, including lineup optimization, and compared their findings to the old school, unwritten rule book of baseball. What did they find? According to the authors, while the general consensus has always been to go with the fast guy up top, the new train of thought says OBP is king. If we go on that idea alone, Billy Butler would lead off, which seems laughable, right?

The numbers say the three best hitters on a team should bat in the #1, 2, and 4 spots of a lineup, while the fourth and fifth best hitters should take the #3 and 5 positions. The first two guys in the lineup should have more walks than those batting in the fourth and fifth spots, and from the sixth spot through the bottom of the order, you just arrange the hitters in descending quality.

Simple enough…but wait…there’s more.

The researchers also assessed the run value of each possible batting event. They claim that hits by the first two batters in the lineup will usually generate more runs than hits from any other spot in the order, with the exception of the cleanup hitter. They go on to point out these two batters will start every game for you (obviously), and then generally come to bat later with runners on base. So what’s wrong with having guys who hit for a little power in those spots? Absolutely nothing, in my opinion.

If these two batters will hit more often than anyone else in the game, and hits by these players generate more runs than hits anywhere else in the lineup, it does makes sense to place a couple of your best guys here. That said, just because Butler had the highest OBP last year, I don’t think he’s the ideal leadoff guy. He’s got some power that would be wasted at that spot (he could homer with a man on base versus bases empty, for example). So I will start off by saying that yes, it appears Alex Gordon was the ideal leadoff man in 2012, given that he also led the team in walks.

But let’s not base this lineup on last year’s numbers. I’m going to jump over to Fangraphs and look at the various projections available for each player, and we’ll build from there. Taking the four available projections for each player, I’ll come up with their average projections for OBP, SLG, OPS, and home runs, and we’ll build from there.

Is Hosmer a number two hitter? Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports

According to the projected OPS numbers, our best three batters in 2013 are likely to be Butler (.867), Gordon (.823), and Eric Hosmer (.797). I have to admit, I was surprised at Hosmer ranking third…not that I don’t think he’s fully capable. So now we plug these three into the first two slots of the lineup, along with choosing our cleanup hitter.

Butler and Hosmer are both projected to have a similar walk rate, somewhere in the range of 9-10%, with Gordon closer to 11%. Their home runs are projected at 25 for Butler, 20 for Hosmer, and 19 for Gordon. Based on all this, I say we go with Gordon and Hosmer at the top, and Butler as our cleanup guy.

Now that we’ve tackled that piece of the lineup, we move on to the third and fifth spots.

The Book says one problem with the common lineup is that managers put their best hitter (and often the guy with the highest OBP) in the third position of the order. The authors found that the #3 hitter has more plate appearances with two out and the bases empty, leading to the theory that the value of any hit other than a homer (the only way to generate a run in that circumstance) is lower in this spot than any of the other top five. Given this information, we should place our fourth best hitter in #5 spot, while our fifth best hitter bats third.

Batting third…. Mandatory Credit: Peter G. Aiken-USA TODAY Sports

Going back to the projections, our fourth best hitter should be Mike Moustakas, so I’ll plug him in as our #5 hitter, while our #3 hitter becomes Salvador Perez. The top of the order now goes like this: Gordon, Hosmer, Perez, Butler, Moustakas. This allows Butler, our best hitter, more situations with runners on base, where Perez could hit more often in less impactful (bases empty) situations.

At this point, we basically just place the remaining hitters in order from best to worst. That would be Lorenzo Cain, Jeff Francoeur (not that I’d be sad to see Jarrod Dyson get plenty of playing time – although he’s projected to pretty much match his 2012 OPS of .650), and then some combination of Alcides Escobar and whoever is on second base. Depending on who wins the battle between Chris Getz and Johnny Giavotella, it could place Escobar as either the #8 hitter (with Getz batting last), or the #9 (with Gio taking the #8 spot). Of course, predicting what will happen at second base is a crap shoot at this point. I think Getz should get the job at this point, so we’ll just go with him as our guy for this exercise.

That leaves us with the following:

Alex Gordon, LF (.823 OPS, 19 HR)

Eric Hosmer, 1B (.797 OPS, 20 HR)

Salvador Perez, C (.766 OPS, 16 HR)

Billy Butler, DH (.867 OPS, 25 HR)

Mike Moustakas, 3B (.767 OPS, 22 HR)

Lorenzo Cain, CF (.738 OPS, 12 HR)

Jeff Francoeur, RF (.721 OPS, 14 HR)

Alcides Escobar, SS (.684 OPS, 5 HR)

Chris Getz, 2B (.655 OPS, 1 HR)

After all this, I feel like running on the field at a game this year and reenacting the famous scene from …And Justice For All.

While not the lineup I would’ve scratched out on paper, it’s not too outlandish. What do you think? Would you be comfortable with this as the opening day lineup for your Kansas City Royals?

Getz is a valuable runner… Mandatory Credit: Peter G. Aiken-USA TODAY Sports

With most of the big league roster settled – everyday lineup, starting rotation, bullpen – the only positions really up for grabs are those of the fifth starter and second baseman. I’ve banged the pitching drum enough, so let’s take a look at the question mark that is second base.

Right now, it appears playing time is likely to be divided between Chris Getz and Johnny Giavotella. Of course, there is an outside chance Miguel Tejada has something to contribute, although he turns 39 in May and hasn’t had a big league at bat since 2011, when he hit .239 in 91 games for the San Francisco Giants.

So we have a possible three-headed Frankenstein monster on our hands here – Miguel Getzavotella. Or something like that. Most likely though, we’re looking at a two-headed beast with a platoon of Getz (left handed batter) and Giavotella (a righty). While it’s not the greatest use of roster space to carry two players who can only play one position (unless we’re talking about catchers), it might be the best route in 2013.

Getz is the more known quantity here. We know he’s not great at getting on base (.314 career OBP) but can probably hit .265 or so – last year, he hit .275 in 64 games, prior to a thumb injury leading to surgery and a premature end to his season. We also know he can run – in the two seasons he’s played more than 100 games, he’s racked up 25 and 21 steals (2009 and 2011). According to Baseball Reference, his 162 game average has Getz stealing 31 bases with an 81% success rate, making him a valuable runner. He’s not a real dangerous hitter, but stick him at the bottom of the order and he’s not a bad speed guy to have down there as the lineup rolls back to the top.

…but will he hit? Mandatory Credit: Peter G. Aiken-USA TODAY Sports

Getz is also a pretty good fielder. Staying with Baseball Reference, his Total Zone Fielding Runs Above Average (yeah, it’s a mouthful, so let’s stick with the abbreviated Rtot) sits at 5 for his career at the position. If you throw out 2008 (he only played seven games) his Rtot from 2009-2012 at second base is 3. His range factor (RF) supports his status as an average fielder. Getz has a RF/9 of 4.81 during his five seasons in the big leagues. Over that same span, the league average is 4.75, putting him just a bit ahead of the curve. He also has a slightly higher fielding percentage than league average (.987 vs. .985). It’s safe to say that Getz is probably, at his worst, an average fielder.

Switching over to the other half of our platoon, we have Giavotella, who has terrorized minor league pitching since 2010. Johnny had an .855 OPS in 2010 at AA, actually got better in AAA with an .871, and improved again in 2012 with an .877 OPS in 89 AAA games. He’s been less impressive in two short stints with the big league club though, with a .611 OPS in 99 total games. He also possesses less speed than Getz; with his career high in steals (26) coming in 2009 in High A ball. He doesn’t have much power, either, but has hit the ball hard in the minors and looks to be a singles and double hitter who will probably cap out around 10-12 homers in most years.

Giavotella is not as slick in the field as Getz. In his 91 big league games, his Rtot is a -15 (yes, that’s a NEGATIVE 15) while his RF/9 (4.13) sits well below the league average of 4.70 for 2011-2012. His fielding percentage is also 13 points below the league average for that same time period. That’s not to say he can’t improve. This is a small sample size, but defense has never been his strong suit. The bat will have to improve to offset his shortcomings in the field.

Now that we know where they’ve been, where are they going? Neither player has a huge sample size to draw from as far as figuring out what to expect. I think Getz is pretty much what he is at this point, while Giavotella has much room for improvement (we don’t know that he will, but it’s possible). Let’s check out some projections.

Switching websites now, the Bill James Projections at Fangraphs predict Getz will play 92 games and have a triple slash

Giavotella – potentially a dangerous hitter. Mandatory Credit: Rick Osentoski-USA TODAY Sports

(AVG/OBP/SLG) of .267/.327/.337. That’s about what we’d expect, given his track record. The fan projections on Fangraphs are similar, guessing he’ll play 110 games and produce at a .261/.309/.323 rate.

Fangraphs also has the ZiPS projections this year (formerly released at Baseball Think Factory). ZiPS does come with the

following disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. Performances have not been allocated to predict playing time in the majors. So basically, the games played/plate appearances will not necessarily be accurate, but the production rates will be. ZiPS has Getz at 334 plate appearances in 2013 with a slash line of .259/.310/.316. That’s still in line with the other numbers, so we have a pretty solid consensus.

Giavotella’s Bill James numbers have him playing the bulk of games at second, with 128 games played and a .286/.339/.407 slash line. The James predictions show a spike in production for Johnny, probably based more on his minor league track record. The fan projections aren’t as optimistic, calling for 80 games and a .266/.316/.367 production rate. Finally, we return to ZiPS to round out our comparison. ZiPS has 677 plate appearances (remember that disclaimer) and a .266/.316/.368 line, which is right in line with the fan prediction.

After all this…where do we stand? Well…we’ve got two pretty similar hitters on our hands here. One (Getz) with better speed, while the other hits more line drives and potentially finds himself on base more often. One (Getz) can play some defense, while the other has struggled in the field. I’d bore you with more stats and dissect their splits, but that doesn’t differentiate them either. Getz is not particularly productive against right handed pitchers, and Giavotella doesn’t rake against southpaws.

A longshot at age 39. Mandatory Credit: Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports

My suggestion? Barring one of them earning the job outright in spring, start the year with Getz getting the majority of playing time. He’s a better defender and a better runner. Until Johnny flashes that bat we’re waiting to see, he should play against some lefties and against guys he has hit well in the past. Given that we have moved into “win now” territory, we need the guy who provides more value, and as of now that player is Getz.

That said, I think if one of these guys has the ability to really surprise us, it’ll be Giavotella. Like I said, he’s got a lot of upside, and the Bill James projections agree. Even though the team wants to win, it would be foolish to put potentially good players on the shelf. Developing talent is still a must.

Until one of these guys either wows everyone or falls flat on his face, it looks like a two-man job. And that’s not necessarily a bad thing.

September 27, 2012; Detroit, MI, USA; Kansas City Royals designated hitter Billy Butler (16) hits a home run during the ninth inning against the Detroit Tigers at Comerica Park. Mandatory Credit: Rick Osentoski-USA TODAY Sports

Am I the only one anxious to see how Billy Butler’s power numbers hold up in 2013?  I like to think some maturity and what seemed to be some extra effort in swinging for the fences will hold up moving forward, but I do think there is a minor cause for concern and a very real chance at regression in power for Billy this year.

I’m basing this on a track record of a fairly low ISO (isolated power) since coming into the league. His career number sits at .168, which, looking at all major league batters who qualify as first basemen (according to Fangraphs), ranks him 35 in ISO from 2007 (rookie year) through last season. Taking a quick peek at those who qualify as DH over that same stretch, Butler ranks 22 of 25.

That’s not to take away from his value as a player. His career fWAR is a 9.9, which places him fourth among DH’s, behind David Ortiz, Johnny Damon, and Jim Thome. To be fair, Damon mostly played outfield during those years, giving him a little more defensive value than the others.

Narrowing the timeframe a bit more (looking only at 2010-2012), and bringing the comparison more current, Butler (fWAR of 7.9) is 2 of 14 at DH, behind only Ortiz (9.7). However, looking at ISO for 2010-2012, he ranks 7 of 14, in the middle of the pack.

There’s no doubt Billy is a very valuable hitter, but there’s a lot to be said for having a legitimate power threat in the middle of a batting order, and right now, KC has some question marks in that area (Alex Gordon has a higher career ISO, but he’s likely to lead off). Of course, Butler came through big-time in 2012, bashing 29 home runs and being named to the All-Star team.

What happened in 2012? Butler had an ISO of .197, nearly 30 points higher than his career mark, and his highest since posting a .191 in 2009. That year, Butler stroked 51 doubles and 21 homers with an OPS of .853. In 2012, Butler cleared for the fences more. As we know, he homered 29 times, but in comparison with 2009, his doubles slipped from 51 to 32. He had an OPS of  .882 in 2012, up nearly 30 points from that 2009 season, due to an increase in both OBP and SLG. By the way, his highest fWAR also came in 2012, along with that high mark in ISO.

All that said…prior to 2012, his career high in home runs was that 21 from 2009. Throwing out 2007 (he only played 92 games), his other HR totals are 11, 15, and 19. Not a track record that would suggest another season in the 30 home run range, but 2012 was Billy’s age 26 season, which means he’s coming into his prime these next few years. Still, is that type of power sustainable?

Billy Butler rounds the bases after hitting his 100th career home run. Mandatory Credit: Peter G. Aiken-USA TODAY Sports

The Bill James projections (available at Fangraphs) have Billy hitting more doubles in 2013, back up into the forties, with 43. They also show a HR total of 24, meaning less clear-the-wall power out of Billy. The James projections show Billy posting a slightly lower ISO of .190, which makes sense with the dip in his home run total.

The community projections, made by fans, have “Country Breakfast” at 41 doubles and 28 homers with a .210 ISO, which would be a career high. It seems the fans are banking on continued improvement as a hitter during Billy’s prime seasons, where the Bill James numbers are playing it safe.

If you want to know what I think (not that I’m an expert), I predict he’ll be somewhere in between. I’ll say Billy hits 35 to 40 doubles with somewhere between 25 and 29 homers.  Based on his track record, it’s hard project whether he can sustain (or improve upon) his 2012 home run total. Given how young he was when he put up those prior numbers though, it’s not a stretch to say he’s just now coming into his own with his power stroke.

However things shake out in 2013, it’s a safe bet Billy will be one of the more consistent hitters in the AL and once again put up productive numbers. At age 27, I expect him to stake his claim as one of the better pure hitters in the league. Here’s hoping that continued success at the plate keeps coming with a little extra pop.

Hosmer’s entire 2012 was upside down. Mandatory Credit: John Rieger-USA TODAY Sports

I’ve harped on the starting pitching quite a bit over the past few months, so I thought it only to pick on the position players for a change. I’ve discussed how bad the rotation was in 2012, and where it should needs be in 2013. So…what about the other guys?

Like I did with the pitchers, I’ll take a simple look at this by using fWAR (from Fangraphs). In the American League last year, the average team had a total position player WAR of 21.27. For all the talk about how bad the starting pitching was last season, we tend to overlook how bad the other guys were…the Royals total WAR for position players was 17.3, good for tenth place in the AL.

It’s not that fans are oblivious to the down years guys had at the plate (and in the field)…it’s just that the pitching was so terrible…and at least these hitters have potential. That said, even with the improved pitching rotation, these hitters are going to have to produce. Eric Hosmer has to bounce back. Alex Gordon and Billy Butler need to keep doing what they do. Salvador Perez needs to stay healthy. The list goes on and on.

So where did we go wrong? Well, we may as well go ahead and throw this name out there first – Jeff Francoeur. We are all fully aware of the negative impact on the team…his fWAR was a -1.2, and he put up negative numbers in both the fielding and base running categories. While I don’t expect to see him play that poorly again, I hope that if he does, he finds himself watching more games from the dugout.

The next major problem? Our golden boy from 2011, Eric Hosmer, was just as bad. Sure, we give him a pass…he’s young, he’s having a sophomore slump, he’ll improve…it’s just a matter of time. Well, he better improve. Last year he had a -1.1 fWAR and a terrible season in the field according to every defensive metric I’ve seen. It’s not time to hit the panic button on Hosmer, we know he can hit and play defense, but he needs to get on track if this team’s going to win in 2013.

No other player of consequence was below zero on the fWAR scale. Together, these guys had a significant negative effect on the overall number. Even if we just brought them back to zero, that removes a -2.3 impact on the fWAR of the team, bringing it up to 19.6, which is still below average, but it’s getting there.

Moooooooooose…. Mandatory Credit: Rick Osentoski-USA TODAY Sports

Bright spots on the team were, of course, Alex Gordon (5.9) and Billy Butler (3.2). Mike Moustakas, who wound up struggling at the plate, posted a solid 3.5, good for second best on the team. Perez was so productive at the plate and behind the dish, he posted a 2.6 in just 76 games, a number matched by Alcides Escobar. Those five players alone add up to an fWAR of 17.8. Lorenzo Cain, a player  I think highly of, added a 1.7 fWAR in only 61 games. If he stays healthy, I predict that number could more than double.

Fans are excited when it comes to this group, and with good reason. This is a talented bunch of players. The hopelessness surrounding the 2012 starting rotation does not apply here. The team had some bad luck with Perez and Cain, and Hosmer struggled to make adjustments in year two. But over at Fangraphs, the Bill James projections have him batting .276 in 2013, with 20 homers, and an OPS of .784. That’s more in line with his rookie campaign, and very much within reach. For all of his struggles last year, Hosmer showed an improved walk rate (up 3.4%) and was a solid base runner, racking up 16 steals. Hopefully the rest of his game catches up. Soon.

If Cain and Perez stay healthy (knock on wood), it’s a safe assumption we can move their numbers up the scale a bit. Let’s say Perez is a 3.5, Cain is a 3.4, and Hosmer bounces back to post an fWAR of 2. If those other four – Gordon, Butler, Moose, and Escobar – play at the same level, that gives us 22.4 between those eight players. That’s the kind of production, along with the overhauled rotation, that makes for a pretty good baseball team – even with Frenchy and an unsettled second base situation (hey…nobody has a perfect lineup).

The rotation was definitely not the only problem in 2012. This part of the puzzle, however, seems to come with a much simpler solution, and the pieces are already in place.

Probably the greatest hitting catcher ever…not good enough for voters. Mandatory Credit: Debby Wong-USA TODAY Sports

Ridiculous. That sums up my opinion of what happened with the Hall of Fame votes cast by the Baseball Writers Association of America. Nobody gets in? Are you kidding me? Maybe the deepest pool of talent ever…and not one player meets the 75 percent minimum needed for enshrinement.

As you may or may not know, the FanSided MLB writers were invited to cast ballots of our own (not for the actual Hall, of course),  with results compiled by Lewie Polis at the Cleveland Indians site “Wahoo’s on First”. This vote saw two players hit the 75 percent mark: Jeff Bagwell and Mike Piazza. Both should probably be working on their HOF induction speeches…but not this year.

For the record, my ballot included Barry Bonds, Roger Clemens, Piazza, Tim Raines, and Lee Smith. I only used five of the possible ten votes…but those were the five guys I thought were most dominant in their careers and deserved to go in immediately. I think Craig Biggio is very deserving as well, and at one point I had him on my ballot, but must have talked myself out of him for some reason. I wanted to vote for the guys I really remember dominating…and Biggio, in my opinion, is a guy who was more of a grinder. Never really the dominating type…but really, REALLY, damn good…and deserving of a spot in Cooperstown (which I imagine will come his way eventually).

I’m not really here to discuss or defend who was or was not included on my ballot, but simply to say the vote this year was a disgrace to the Hall. I think the BBWAA should be ashamed of themselves. I get where some of these guys are coming from to a degree…but to leave out guys like Piazza and Biggio, if they aren’t voting in the likes Bonds or Clemens, is ridiculous.

Where does this nonsense end? It’s hard to say…left to their own devices, the BBWAA turned baseball’s historical shrine into a joke. How can you go to the HOF and walk through it…discussing the history of the game…without mention of players like Bonds or Clemens? You can’t just erase them. It won’t happen. And it’s not like leaving them out of the HOF wipes the memory of two of the most dominant players EVER from our minds. So…what’s the point?

The worst part of it all is how the BBWAA members come out of this looking like hypocrites. Outside of the game of baseball, who profited more from the “steroid era” than the writers? Were these guys up in arms when Mark McGwire and Sammy Sosa were dueling each other in the chase for the Roger Maris single-season home run record? No. They were loving that people were reading their articles…not just baseball fans, either, but everyone. I remember that season, and everywhere you went, EVERYONE was glued to either the Cardinals or Cubs games. And if the games weren’t available, we waited for the updates to scroll across the tickers on various sports and news channels. The media – and the WRITERS – loved it.

So what happened? Why the backlash? Yeah…looks like some of these guys cheated. But when, and why, did the voters stop turning a blind eye? Maybe a lack of decisiveness from the top, as in MLB Commissioner Bud Selig and the HOF Board of Directors. Look, I don’t necessarily think Pete Rose deserves to be left out of the Hall, but he is with good reason. Many years ago, with the Black Sox Scandal, Kenesaw Mountain Landis was made baseball’s first commissioner. Landis banned the players in question from baseball for life, saying:

Regardless of the verdict of juries, no player who throws a ball game, no player who undertakes or promises to throw a ball game, no player who sits in confidence with a bunch of crooked ballplayers and gamblers, where the ways and means of throwing a game are discussed and does not promptly tell his club about it, will ever play professional baseball.

Whether or not you agree, there’s a reason Pete’s not in the HOF. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports

Pretty clear, right? Whether you agree about the effect this had on players like Buck Weaver or Joe Jackson…you have a clear cut decision made by the man in charge. The same decision that was used in the Pete Rose case years later. Does Rose belong in the HOF? I don’t know. But I do know this…what Landis said tells me Rose is out. And the HOF has kept him off the ballots based on this decision, made in 1921.

Of course…how could we expect such a decision to be made by Selig? The same man we saw at the 2002 All-Star game shrugging his shoulders when teams were running out of pitchers in a tie game. How should he know what to do? He’s only in charge of Major League Baseball.

My point is…a lack of clear and firm decision-making at the top has trickled down to the voters. They don’t know what to do. There is no clear right or wrong way to go for these guys…heck, five of them turned in blank ballots! Blank ballots? With the laundry list of superstars eligible this year? Clearly they are just winging it. Making it up as they go. Shrugging their shoulders…like Selig in 2002.

Where does this end? Will they find some ridiculous reason to keep Greg Maddux from being a first-ballot inductee next year? Probably not. But if Craig Biggio, a guy who has never been associated with steroids, can’t make the cut in a year where the plaques of much better players were kept off the walls, who knows what happens next? Until Selig or the HOF itself lays down the law…the voters (and fans) will just keep shrugging our shoulders, wondering where this all went wrong.

December 12, 2012; Kansas City, MO, USA; Kansas City Royals pitcher James Shields speaks during the press conference at Kauffman Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports

I don’t think too many fans will argue Dayton Moore has done quite a bit to improve the starting pitching on this team – but how much has it improved?

Back in September, I took a look at the Kansas City rotation versus an average staff using fWAR. An average AL rotation had an fWAR of 9.65, while Kansas City’s, at that time, was a 7.3…well below average. By the end of 2012, it had gone up to a 7.6…still well below average.

At the time, I was examining whether getting a couple of number three starting pitchers would be enough to get us to that average mark of 9.65…of course, the Royals have almost completely overhauled the rotation at this point, so I’m going to go back to that fWAR number and try to see where the team sits as of right now.

We’ll start with James Shields, the new ace of the rotation who came over from the Tampa Bay Rays.  For his career, Big Game James has a cumulative fWAR of 25.3 over the span of seven years. I’m going to toss out the first season, which only saw him throw 124.2 innings, and begin with his first full season. That gives Shields a total fWAR of 23.4 in six seasons from 2007-2012. During that stretch, Shields has an average fWAR of 3.9…not too shabby, and puts the Royals more than halfway to that 7.3 number. We’re off to a good start.

The number two man in this rotation will likely be Jeremy Guthrie, who pitched in KC last year after Moore was able to sucker the Colorado Rockies into taking Jonathan Sanchez in a swap of struggling pitchers. Guthrie pitched like an ace once he arrived, although it’s safe to say he won’t be quite that good again…but given his history of pitching for the Baltimore Orioles – should be at least an average pitcher. Beginning with his first season in Baltimore, Guthrie has amassed a career fWAR of 12.1 (2007-2012).  That works out to an average fWAR of 2.16 per season. The new rotation already sits at 6.06 based on these two pitchers just doing what they normally do.

Ervin Santana – The key to a winning season? Mandatory Credit: Jayne Kamin-Oncea-USA TODAY Sports

The number three pitcher in the 2013 rotation is Ervin Santana. With Santana, we have a pitcher who can either be dominant or pretty frustrating to watch…probably not as frustrating as Luke Hochevar…but I’m not here to bag on Luke (this time). Santana has been a monster at times – posting fWAR’s of 3.4 and 5.8 in 2006 and 2008…but last year dropped all the way into negative territory with a -0.9. For his career, however, Santana has a total fWAR of 17.3 from 2005-2012, good for an average of 2.16. This puts him even with Guthrie. Guthrie has probably been a steadier performer throughout his career, but Santana has shown flashes of brilliance, and could be the guy who really makes the difference in 2013.

Three pitchers into this experiment – and the fWAR of the rotation sits at 8.22, already surpassing what the Royals starting rotation did in 2012. Given the average for an AL rotation last season was roughly 9.65, the front end of this rotation puts KC in a position to be at least average, if not a little better.

There are still question marks at the back of the rotation. Will Wade Davis be able to perform well enough as a starter? He was below average from 2009-2011 in the role (only six starts in 2009), putting up a total fWAR of 2.6 during that time, in 64 total starts. As a reliever in 2012, he was dominant, and put up a 1.1 fWAR in 69 innings, while posting an ERA of just 2.43. If Davis can be a legit number four…and I think (hope) he can…we’re in business.  Even if he only posts an fWAR of about 1.0, the team total sits at 9.22, just a shade below that 9.65 mark.

The number five spot will probably go to Hochevar, Bruce Chen, or Luis Mendoza…with all three probably sharing the duty during the season. I’m guessing Chen breaks camp with the job, being the only lefty of all the pitchers mentioned thus far, but I don’t know that he’ll be good enough to hold the job for long. Whatever the case, Mendoza had an fWAR of 1.7 last year, Hochevar a 1.5, and Chen a 1.3. As bad as Chen and Luke were last year as the 1-2 combo for this team…they won’t hurt the team nearly as much sharing the duties of the fifth man.

The bad news? Those last two spots could be trouble.

The good news? Last season, all five spots were trouble (outside of Guthrie’s run).

Keep in mind the intangibles these guys bring to the table as well. Shields is a proven number one starter with postseason experience, and by all accounts, a strong leader. Santana has seen postseason action (five series in four seasons) on a winning Angels team, and Guthrie came of age pitching against the AL East, facing dominant Yankees and Red Sox lineups.

With the new front three, the Royals should have pitchers who can fight and hang in there with the best the AL Central has to offer. I’m not saying any of the three are Justin Verlander, but I think all three could beat Verlander on any given day. And hey…if we get to a Wild Card game…I’ll take my chances that, with a guy like Big Game James on the bump, we’ve got a shot.

The “Holy Grail” of baseball cards when I was about 12 years old…

A recent article Joe Posnaski wrote about baseball card collecting (and a Boog Powell card that kept him up at night) got me thinking back to the Bo Jackson frenzy of the late 1980’s/early 90’s. I remember hunting down his 1986 Topps Traded rookie card…which seemed to be elusive at the time, and was my “Boog Powell” that year.

I dug out my cards and took a trip down memory lane, thinking about some of the amazing things I’d seen Bo do in a Royals uniform, and I wondered what kind of baseball player he might’ve been had he not been injured. I looked at his stats with the Royals, trying to look for trends of improvement or regression, then decided to try and project what might’ve been had he just retired from football and avoided that career altering (basically career ending) injury. Could Bo have been a HOF baseball player?

Looking at 1987 through 1990 – his four full seasons with the Royals – it’s easy to see he was getting better. And he was just reaching his prime. Bo was 26 in 1989, which was his All-Star season…and he was even better at age 27, although he failed to make the All-Star team again in 1990.

Bo was a free swinger…and a BIG swinger, meaning he was always going to be a guy who struck out a lot. But his K% improved every year from 1987 through 1990, dropping from 36.4% down to 28.1%. His BB% also improved. It was at 6.9% in 1987, took a dip in 1988, and eventually landed at 9.6% in 1990.

His batting average, OBP, and SLG all got better along the way. In 1990, Bo had a .342 OBP and .523 SLG for an OPS of .866, which was up 61 points from his All-Star year. His OBP increased 15.5% from 1987 through 1990, and his batting average went up at the same clip (15.7%).

In addition to getting on base more, Bo saw his raw strength translate into more power at the plate. His HR per AB got better each season:

1987 – 1 HR every 18 AB
1988 – 1 HR every 17.56 AB
1989 – 1 HR every 16.09 AB
1990 – 1 HR every 14.46 AB

His biggest jumps in home runs came in 1989 and 1990. His total was lower in 1990, but he had 110 less AB. Had he reached 515 AB (his total in 1989), he would’ve been on pace to hit 36 homers that year, which is four more than he hit in ’89. It’s hard to say how much his power would have increased if he’d kept playing, but I’m guessing he would’ve had at least a couple of 40+ home run seasons.

Given the improvements he was making at the plate, and figuring in this scenario he’s only focusing on baseball starting with the 1991 season, I don’t think it’s a stretch to say he might’ve improved a bit more (at least for another year or two),before leveling out.

I’m guessing he may have started a decline around the 1996 season, continuing through the end of his career…but who knows? Bo was a special case…we’d never seen anything like him before, and I don’t think we’ve seen anything like him since. But to be conservative, I’ll guess we would see father time catch up with him a bit around age 33, at which point his numbers would begin regressing. I’m also going to guess he may have retired around age 37, in the year 2000, tacking on another 10 years to his career.

Without laying out too much math…I’ll get down to some final numbers. If we take his entire career through 1990 (including his partial 1986) and get rid of his three post-injury seasons, we have 109 career home runs and 81 stolen bases. If we tack on the 1991 through 2000 seasons and make some assumptions, I project that Bo would’ve hit roughly 430-440 career HR. In addition to those power numbers, I figure he’d have stolen about 260 bases in his career.

So…440 HR/260 SB – probably not enough for the HOF (and I think it’s safe to say he wouldn’t have reached 3,000 hits). But, again, it’s hard to project what might have happened. I stayed conservative with my guesses. Bo might have slugged 50+ homers a time or two, we’ll never know. But with a couple of monster seasons, it’s not far fetched to project career totals of 500 HR/300 SB.

Had he not had the wear and tear of playing two professional sports, there’s no telling how dominant he might have become. We can assume he would have wound up putting up some damn impressive numbers though, and I’m betting the Steve Balboni HR record would belong to Bo Jackson. Regardless of his HOF potential…we can all agree that he was a world-class athlete. Too bad his career (in both sports) was cut so short.

Here is a great video featuring some memorable highlights – narrated by some of his baseball peers…

Kyle Zimmer – the new number one. Mandatory Credit: US Presswire File Photo

I’m going to take one final look at “The Trade” with the Tampa Bay Rays, and any collateral damage on the Royals farm system. We all know – even casual fans – who Wil Myers is (and most probably know Jake Odorizzi as well). But did this trade really wreck our farm system? I maintain the move was a good one, and that the farm remains strong. Let’s take a look at some remaining top prospects.

According to Baseball America’s JJ Cooper, in an update of the top prospects published on November 19, 2012, Myers was the number one prospect, which is no surprise. Many fans were upset to see Odorizzi, number five on Cooper’s list, also included in the deal. So…two of our top five are gone. Let’s slide the other guys up the ladder and see where that leaves us. After the trade, our top guys according to BA are:

1. Kyle Zimmer, RHP
2. Bubba Starling, OF
3. Yordano Ventura, RHP
4. Jorge Bonifacio, OF
5. Adalberto Mondesi, SS
6. Sam Selman, LHP
7. Orlando Calixte, SS
8. Jason Adam, RHP

That’s still a great group of players. Zimmer is also listed as having the best curveball and best control of any pitcher in the system, while Ventura has the top fastball. Starling is named the best athlete and is said to possess the best outfield arm. Sounds like three guys with a lot of upside to me. Are they knocking on the door like Myers and Odorizzi were? No…not yet. But Myers and Odorizzi were no more known quantities than any of the remaining eight players, we were just closer to finding out if they were legitimate big leaguers.

Cooper goes on to project a 2016 lineup and rotation based on the top prospects and current major league roster. It included Myers in right field. But to all those so upset by Odorizzi’s inclusion in this deal: he was projected as the fifth starter. Not exactly an endorsement for being a guy with game changing ability. Zimmer is projected as the ace, with Ventura the fourth starter…both projected ahead of Odorizzi, and both are still in the Royals pipeline.

Shifting gears to FanGraphs, Marc Hulet ranked the KC prospects, and had Myers and Odorizzi in the top five as well (first and fourth, respectively). FanGraphs offered a top 15, rather than top 10. Listing their top 10 minus the two missing prospects looks like this:

1. Zimmer
2. Ventura
3. Starling
4. Mondesi
5. Bonifacio
6. Selman
7. Adam
8. Kyle Smith, RHP
9. Calixte
10. John Lamb, LHP

Yordano Ventura pitches in the 2012 Futures Game. Mandatory Credit: Bob Ellis

Baseball America’s guys are all here again, with Kyle Smith and John Lamb joining the party. FanGraphs claims Odorizzi’s ceiling was that of a number three or four starter…which is in line with Cooper’s “conservative” projection of fifth starter. Lamb, by the way, who is recovering from surgery, was projected to be a number two or three starter by many prior to injury. He could be one to keep an eye on as he makes his way back.

Oh…and you may have noticed…the other two prospects KC included in this trade – nowhere to be seen here (they weren’t in FanGraphs top 15 list at all).

What all of this boils down to, though, is guesswork. I’m a believer in statistical trends and projections. But I’ve also seen many top prospects fail – or at least not become the superstar player they were projected to be. Maybe Zimmer is the next Zack Greinke (or James Shields). Maybe Starling or Bonifacio are just good as Wil Myers (who knows…maybe one of them is better). What we do know? KC traded a couple of questions for a couple of answers.

The point is…we have seen Dayton Moore make strides towards putting a competitive big league roster together this offseason, and when is the last time we could honestly say that? You have to admit – a complete overhaul of the pitching rotation is pretty unheard of. Is it good enough to make a run at one of those wild card spots? Maybe…maybe not. But at least we’re discussing it for once. And, by the way, the farm doesn’t look so bad after all.

Goodbye Wil Myers… Mandatory Credit: Matt Ryerson-USA TODAY Sports

I know you’re probably tired of reading about the Tampa trade by now…and while I was looking forward to writing about it, I’m not sure how excited I am to do so at this point…but I do have some things I’d like to say about the trade and state of the Royals.

First of all…a moment of silence for all the fans who are in mourning and hoping Elton John comes out with another version of “Candle in the Wind” in memoriam of Wil Myers’ Kansas City career.

Ok, now that we’ve all had a moment to reflect…

Was this a good deal? That’s hard to answer. And it can be argued many ways for either side. I’ll say this…I had very mixed emotions when I sat down to my computer Sunday night as the story started to break. I wound up monitoring the reactions until well after midnight…and went to bed still a little unsure of how I felt about the trade. The only thing I was sure of? I probably invest way too much emotion in this team.

As I rolled out of bed the next morning…sports radio talking heads were interviewing various “experts” on the topic…most to mixed reviews. The national sportswriters were split down the middle – some claiming the Royals were fleeced, some claiming they did great to land an ace another solid pitcher. It was on the drive to work that morning that I came to a decision – I’m on board with this. I do like this deal.

Let me get this out of the way…the whole “Did they overpay?” debate…I don’t know. My initial thought was “what the heck just happened??” But overpaid by whose standards? Did they overpay because Baseball America said these prospects were good? Because they have a lot of potential? Because a stat-head said it didn’t add up?

I don’t buy it. Look…I’m into all that just as much as the next baseball geek – trust me…I analyze and crunch numbers and follow the prospects and up-and-coming high school and college players. But…having the best farm system doesn’t mean crap. It’s nice…sure…but it doesn’t mean you’re going to win at the big league level – which is really all that matters. And, by the way, we still have a great farm system. The high-end prospects might be further away from the big leagues than Myers or Jake Odorizzi, but they are still damn good.

Anibal Sanchez – did we ever really have a chance? Mandatory Credit: H. Darr Beiser-USA TODAY Sports

The economics of baseball also come into play here. Is it stupid for KC to trade away players they can control on the cheap for several years for a high priced ace and another pitcher with a big league salary? I don’t know. I guess. And people want to argue that if KC can afford to add that salary…why don’t they go after Anibal Sanchez? Or Shaun Marcum? Or Ryan Dempster? Or bring Zack Greinke back?

Here’s the reality: those guys don’t want to come here. Why? Because they don’t want to play for loser…not just a loser…but a cheap loser. A loser who will say “we can’t afford to get better.” It’s great in theory…go sign Sanchez and Dempster and keep Myers. Don’t you think that Dayton Moore would have loved to do just that? Do you know why he didn’t? It wasn’t an option. No way they could compete with the bidding war on a guy like Greinke – as we have all seen. No way Anibal Sanchez wanted to go from the Tigers to the lowly Royals. Dempster shot down an offer. And if we went after Marcum to be anything more than a 4 or 5 starter I think I would’ve vomited. Moore did what he had to do to turn the page here in KC…to move away from a losing mindset. He went out and paid dearly to improve his big league club greatly.

You know who absolutely loves this move? The players on the big league team like Billy Butler, Alex Gordon, Eric Hosmer, Alcides Escobar, Sal Perez, Mike Moustakas, Danny Duffy, Jeremy Guthrie, the newly acquired Ervin Santana…and so on and so on. Why? Because losing sucks. They don’t like it. They don’t like to be the punchline of MLB jokes. They like to win. And guess what? You thought it sucked to lose a guy like Myers – who we never saw suit up in Kansas City? How bad does it suck when guys can’t wait to get off this sinking ship? Guys who we have grown to love and root for like the players I just mentioned? You think they will stick around with a rotation like the one we trotted out there last year? Nope. But if the team starts winning…that’s when guys say “I want to stay put. I like it here.”

Winning can go a long way for a team like the Royals. Not only does it change the perception from outside (and potentially lures future free agents), it changes everything within the organization. It builds confidence. Guys have more fun coming to the ballpark. They build friendships. They want to be here. They believe they can win.

Shields and Davis…let’s win some ball games. Mandatory Credit: Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports

They get mad when they don’t. It changes an organization’s entire way of thinking. You think guys like Hosmer and Moose won’t work a little harder now? Won’t be more excited? Won’t have more confidence? I say you’re crazy.

I say not only did the starting pitching improve…the bullpen just got better, too. The same bullpen that is already regarded as one of the best in baseball, but gets worn out due to overuse. Look at the durability in this rotation now. That won’t happen in 2013 – the relievers will be fresh all year, rather than worn down in August.

Not only does the starting pitching improve the bullpen…it just made the offense better as well. If you want to project Myers to be the next big thing, if you’re going to use his minor league stats to project his major league success, then you can’t believe Moustakas and Hosmer won’t improve. They will. And now, the pressure is off. The games where KC trails an opponent by six runs in the third inning are gone…because our starting pitching just got better. No more pressure to hit balls out of the park. No more watching young batters trying to hit a 7-run homer to overcome an insurmountable deficit.

It all flows through the starting pitching. But what about Jeff Francoeur, you ask? What about him? Who cares? First of all, let me say…I want him gone, but I do think he will play somewhat better (it’s not easy for someone to suck that bad). If this team’s success comes down to how Jeff Francoeur plays, though…well…the rest of the team is a lot worse than we thought. No team has a perfect nine on the field. Every team has a weak spot or two. Or more. If you want to point to a negative, look past Frenchy and ask this question: Why do the Royals stink at developing pitchers? That’s the root of a very big problem, and why this trade was necessary to begin with. But that’s a topic for another day.

I’ve rambled on long enough (give me a break, I’ve been waiting a few days to chime in…but I’m starting to feel more wordy than Rany). So…to those who want to ask “What if?”

What if Wil Myers wins Rookie of the Year? What if Wil Myers goes on to hit .280 with 30 homers every year for the next 10 years? Well, what if he doesn’t? And even if he does? The Royals still might be better off in the long run.

Wil Myers…future star for Kansas City, or someone else? Mandatory Credit: Matt Ryerson-USA TODAY Sports

The winter meetings have been, for the Royals at least, a whole lot of speculation without much activity. It’s like lighting that huge professional grade firework you paid $100 for, and watching it fizzle and go out with a whimper rather than a bang. The Royals have been attached to several free agents and trade candidates…but whether anything happens remains to be seen.

The question on the mind of most fans: will the Royals trade Wil Myers to improve the rotation?

It’s looking less likely now than a week ago. At one point it seemed as if every key Royals hitter was on the table, now, who knows? The trick for Dayton Moore, of course, is making sure the player(s) the Royals get in return make sense.

Wil Myers, for example, is probably more valuable now than he might ever be – but does that mean trading him for a 38 year old pitcher makes sense? No. Not even if that aging pitcher is 2012 NL Cy Young winner R.A. Dickey. And thankfully, it seems that ship has sailed. I’m not saying I wouldn’t make a trade for Dickey, but it can’t include Myers. No way.

Myers for Shields? Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports

Is it worth moving Myers for a pitcher like James Shields? Maybe. Shields is younger than Dickey and would be the number one pitcher in the KC rotation, but he’s only got a couple more years of team control on his contract versus about six for Myers.

And what if Myers turns into a guy who hits .280 with 25 homers on a yearly basis? Is that a deal you regret? Or do you get enough out of Shields that it makes sense? It’s the kind of deal, if Shields were to come here and pitch well, that could change the culture of this organization. A pitcher like Shields could get this team on track enough that it lures future free agents to KC and maybe sees this team in the postseason. That’s worth it…right?

It’s a slippery slope for Moore. I wouldn’t want to be in his shoes. Just being a fan at this point makes me nervous enough…and my job doesn’t hang in the balance.

Listening to various baseball insiders on the radio and reading the blurbs on Twitter and MLBTR…no matter how much info is out there, one thing is clear – nobody knows what’s going to happen at this point. The Royals have been attached to the Mets, Rays, Orioles, Mariners, and been thrown into the mix of a four-team trade over the past few days…but so far…nothing.

And maybe, given the question marks surrounding a trade of a player like Myers, the best trade is no trade at all. Can the Royals ever trade a guy like Myers or Billy Butler and feel comfortable with it? Is there a way to “win” that trade? Maybe…I would argue that Moore did really well when he moved Zack Greinke, but a lot of that will depend on whether or not Jake Odorizzi pans out.

This time around, though, most fans are going to judge any trade that doesn’t result in a new number one starter in KC as a failure. Trading Butler for three prospects is not going to excite the average Kansas City fan. Trading Myers in a deal that brings back anything less than one of the Tampa starters seems like it will disappoint the majority.

Is Marcum the answer? Mandatory Credit: Steve Mitchell-USA TODAY Sports

Maybe the best move the Royals can make is to sit back and let a couple of signings, like Greinke and even Anibal Sanchez (does anyone really believe we have a shot at him?), happen and set the tone. Maybe the best thing for Moore is to pursue the second tier starting pitchers like Shaun Marcum, Brandon McCarthy, and Ryan Dempster.

Believe me…I went into this wanting a fireworks show…but at this point, the speculation has exhausted me, and I’m almost to afraid of what will happen if we do make a trade. Someone like Marcum isn’t as exciting as adding a guy like Shields or Dickey, but sometimes the best trade you make is the one you don’t.

Now is not the time to panic. Mandatory Credit: Peter G. Aiken-US PRESSWIRE

I have two items, not really items I guess…but wishes, on my Christmas list this year. The first is for David Glass to stop being so damn cheap. Wish number two is for Dayton Moore not to panic.

I hate to go back to this well, as I’ve already examined the art of breaking of even, which seems to be all Mr. Glass cares about, but this is just getting ridiculous. According to MLB Trade Rumors, the Royals are burning up the phone lines trying to trade Luke Hochevar and Bruce Chen. Why the sudden urge to trade these two? To free up money so the team can acquire a (fingers crossed) better pitcher.

I’m not saying the Royals shouldn’t try to trade them. By all means…see if you can find a sucker.  But according the MLBTR report, David Glass told Bob Dutton of the KC Star that the team has to maintain a $70 million dollar payroll…to do what? Say it with me now…BREAK EVEN. This is the part where I get so mad I chuck the closest thing within reach across the room in frustration. Tonight, however, that thing is my cell phone – which I need – so, in an effort to save myself money, just visualize my cell phone shattering into a hundred pieces against the living room wall.

Don’t get me wrong. I like the basic thought process here…especially the part where the team rids itself of Hochevar. It’s that “break even” mantra that kills me. Glass just can’t keep running the team this way, and can’t keep reminding fans that’s all he cares about. We know. We get it. On behalf of every Royals fan out there, I’d like to quote Ben Affleck from Jay and Silent Bob Strike Back and ask, “When, Lord? When? When’s gonna be my time?”

And here’s the thing – we don’t HAVE to trade Hochevar. We can non-tender Luke, who is arbitration eligible and projected to have a salary in the $4.5-$5 million range, and be done with him. That’s easy money. My fear is that Moore and Glass won’t simply cut ties and let him walk. If you can’t trade him, fine. But either way, it’s time to let him go. It costs nothing to do so. In fact, you’ll actually MAKE money. Money you can use towards a pitcher and maybe stay closer to that break even line.

Does anyone else want Chen? Mandatory Credit: Rick Osentoski-US PRESSWIRE

Chen is trickier, as he’s got a guaranteed contract for one more year. I’ve been resigned to the fact that he’ll be on the roster in 2013, so I don’t think it’s imperative to move him, but by all means, if some random GM would like Chen on his team – trade the guy. I applaud the effort.

Now I’ll touch on my second Christmas wish, which is for Moore to keep his wits about him and not do something stupid to save his job. Something like…I don’t know…make an awful trade that cripples the franchise, which, hilariously, would probably result in him eventually losing his job anyway. What a cruel twist of fate that would be for DM the GM.

The awful trade I refer to, of course, would be something along the lines of the latest rumors. You know the ones…Wil Myers either goes to the Red Sox for Jon Lester or to the Rays for James Shields. The thought of either trade made me feel like vomiting. Not that either guy is a bad pitcher (although Lester had an awful 2012)…but for Myers? No thanks. Giving up the best hitting prospect in all of baseball for someone who is solid, but not necessarily an ace…it doesn’t make sense, and it goes against that “process” Moore has been telling us about since he came to town.

Having a young player under control – and on the cheap – for the next several years is someone a team in BEM (break even mode) can’t afford to swap out for a player who costs much more, and is only under contract for two more seasons. Both Shields and Lester fit that description. Not only is that going against Moore’s process of building from within via the draft, it also goes directly against the owner’s philosophy. This is the type of deal that, most importantly, makes no baseball sense…but on top of that, makes a hypocrite of Moore. On the other hand…Myers for Matt Moore is something you’d have to think about. But that’s not the point here.

Guthrie at $5M means we have money to burn…Mandatory Credit: Peter G. Aiken-US PRESSWIRE

I know we need pitching…believe me…I know. But here’s the thing – we’ve got to spend money. This is an ideal time for the team to go out and blow some cash on an ace type of pitcher. Yes, we just took on a large contract with Ervin Santana. And yes, we just signed Jeremy Guthrie for three years. But Guthrie’s contract is back-loaded, and Santana’s is a one-year commitment. For 2013, we owe Guthrie $5 million. That’s all. Go out and make a splash!

Not only does Guthrie’s contract structure make a high dollar signing more affordable for 2013, but Santana being gone makes it affordable in 2014. With a high dollar ace and Guthrie anchoring a 2014 rotation, and (hopefully) a couple of young – and CHEAP – pitchers stepping up and/or bouncing back from injury, spending money makes perfect sense.

If we can get the owner out of BEM, and into the mindset of not only winning, but giving the loyal fans something to really be proud of…and we can keep Dayton from shooting himself in the foot, this team will be on the fast track to respectability. Otherwise, to once again borrow from Mr. Affleck, fans are going to be stuck asking “When’s gonna be my time?” for the foreseeable future.

How bad can he really be? Mandatory Credit: Rick Osentoski-US PRESSWIRE

There are rumors out there that teams are calling Dayton Moore regarding some bullpen arms, and that Moore is willing to trade an arm only if that team will take Frenchy as well. I’m not sure how likely that scenario is…but that’s the word. Of course this would be ideal as it would not only clear a nice chunk of payroll for Moore to allocate to more pressing areas of need (you know…like PITCHING) but it would also remove the roadblock in front of top prospect Wil Myers.

Of course, there are also rumors swirling that Moore is listening to offers on the impact bats, such as Myers, Eric Hosmer, Mike Moustakas, Billy Butler, and Alex Gordon. Ideally…I’d like to see the Royals add pitching, remove Frenchy, and keep all those players I just mentioned. However, to receive a pitcher who’s proven they can pitch at the big league level, is still young and under team control for a few years, and a guy who could be an ace – it’s highly likely that someone like Myers would be the price, which leaves us with Frenchy as the right fielder for 2013.

I know it sounds bad. But with the potential upgrade to the rotation, how bad is it really, to be stuck with another year of Francoeur?

For his career, according to Fangraphs, he has accumulated a WAR of 10 over an eight-year career. That works out to him being a player with about a 1.3 WAR on average. Most of his career value was accumulated over the span of three seasons of course, putting up solid numbers of 3.8, 3.2, and 2.9 WAR. That last number most of you will remember well, as it came during his first year in KC, back in 2011.

With those three big years subtracted from the equation, Frenchy is a much less attractive player of course, but still not generally a guy who plays as terrible as the -1.2 WAR of 2012 suggests. He’s only had one other year of negative value, back in 2008, when he posted a -0.8 WAR and had similar numbers to 2012 when comparing OBP and SLG.

Looking over his career, Francoeur is not a great player, but has generally been a solid (yet unspectacular) player. He generally contributes at least some kind of positive value to his team. I’m not saying he’s a guy to get excited about. Not remotely. But he is a guy that should play better than what we witnessed in 2012. If I had to guess, I’d say he’ll come out in 2013 and probably hit about .260 or so, with horrible plate discipline as usual, and maybe hit about 15 homers. Will he return to his 20/20 numbers of 2011? Hell no.  But I doubt he hits .230 either.

Matt Moore – worth the price of Myers? Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement-US PRESSWIRE

Look, I’m not defending the guy. Well, maybe a little. The truth is, I’d like to see him gone just as much as 99.9% of the rest of you. But…if Dayton Moore is able to strike a deal with a team like Tampa…something like Wil Myers for Matt Moore…I mean, that’s hard to turn down, right? Moore is signed to a very team friendly contract and under control through 2019. He looks like a potential ace, which we desperately need in KC. Wouldn’t we have to bite the bullet and recognize maybe the team would be better off with a young ace and one more year of Frenchy?

A 2013 starting rotation led by Moore, Jeremy Guthrie, and Ervin Santana looks pretty good. Add in a guy like Luis Mendoza and maybe Bruce Chen until Jake Odorizzi proves he’s ready…that’s a pretty legitimate rotation. It’s good enough that we could squeeze Luke Hochevar completely out of the picture.

Yes, it would be tough to see a talent like Myers crushing the ball in another uniform. But he may be the only chip we have that can land a pitcher of Moore’s caliber. If fans want to see Moore pull of a trade for big time arm, it might be time to say goodbye to Myers. But in the right deal, it’s worth it. I mean…how bad can one more year of Frenchy really be?

Wil Myers – trade bait? Mandatory Credit: Matt Ryerson-US PRESSWIRE

Look at all these rumors, surrounding me everyday.

This is a fun time of year, but right now trying to separate fact from fiction is next to impossible. Don’t get me wrong, I love the speculation, and I’m as guilty as anyone of coming up with off the wall trade scenarios, but I’m not sure there is much meat on the bones being thrown by the various reporters and sites like MLBTR.

Right now, the popular stories regarding the Royals seem to include the Mariners, the Diamondbacks, the Orioles…and probably some other teams I’ve forgotten over the last couple of weeks.

The Mariners have a pitching heavy system, while the Royals obviously have more young hitters, making these teams seem like a perfect fit. Of course, with the caliber of some Mariners pitching prospects, they are probably locked in on a guy like Wil Myers. Will Dayton Moore go that route? Are the fans okay with a move like that? Time will tell. Personally…even though we need pitching, I think an everyday player like Myers is worth more than a highly rated pitching prospect. Too many things can go wrong with a pitcher, and an everyday player will contribute…well…everyday.

The Orioles have apparently inquired about Silver Slugger winner Billy Butler. I’m not sure what they would offer for a DH…and not sold that what they would offer would be enough. Butler is a great hitter, no doubt. But he’s not great at much else. I’m not knocking the guy…every lineup needs great hitters. That said, I’m just not sure what kind of value a DH, who won’t contribute in the field, has on the trade market. I think he’s a guy the Royals might get more value out of by keeping him right where he is.

The Diamondbacks are an interesting addition to the rumor mill. They are apparently fielding offers on right fielder Justin Upton. The Royals are in dire need of pitching. Not really a fit, is it? Then again…the hot rumor is that KC would send Mike Moustakas as part of a deal for Upton. That leaves a hole at third base…unless…Wil Myers, third baseman? Myers played some third base in Omaha in 2012, and by all accounts, was very good. The word from around the league is that Myers could play third in the big leagues. In this scenario, KC would likely try Myers at third, stick Upton in right, and roll with Jeff Francoeur as a reserve player, which is where he belongs anyway (since we’re likely stuck with him).

The question when analyzing a trade like one for Upton is: Are you okay with KC using its resources to pick up another bat? Or are you strictly interested in pitching?

Personally, I’m up for any improvements. Pitching, though, is what’s been killing this team for several years now. I’m most interested in solving that part of the equation. If I’m the GM, that’s my priority, while deals like the rumored Upton scenario would take a back seat.

David Price and James Shields – Tampa trade targets. Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement-US PRESSWIRE

Given that pitching is such a need, I’d think the ideal trade partners this off-season would be the Mariners or someone like Tampa, who is always looking to shed payroll and has some interesting trade targets like James Shields. Of course, if you want to dream big, they also have newly crowned AL Cy Young winner David Price. I’m not sure Dayton Moore, or most fans for that matter, could stomach the cost involved on a guy like Price, even if it might be what this team needs to get on track.

I know this much – if KC is going to make a real attempt to improve the rotation – they have to give something of value to receive something big. What we give up might sting a bit…but this team, at some point, needs game changers on the mound. The question is, will this regime have the guts to move someone like Eric Hosmer, Alex Gordon, Moose, Myers, or Butler to make it happen? After the big Toronto and Miami swap…I’m anxious to see if any rumors become reality.

Greg Holland…probably striking someone out. Mandatory Credit: Steven Bisig-US PRESSWIRE

The Royals have handed out a few team awards, most notably giving their Player and Pitcher of the Year trophies to Billy Butler and Greg Holland, respectively. If you’ve been keeping up with KoK content, you know how I feel about the Player of the Year Award. Hint: it should’ve been Alex Gordon.

Don’t get me wrong. Billy was the hitter of the year, no doubt. But not the player of the year. I get it. He was an All-Star and he raked all season. I don’t hate that he won…but Alex was more deserving.

The choice at pitcher is one I can’t argue with. There were no starters worthy of the nod, and Holland had a dominant year and has a lot of upside heading into 2013 as the closer.

At the start of the 2012 season, I had high hopes for Holland, as did most fans. He thanked us for that support by starting out the year with a couple of losses, a blown save, and an ERA of 11.37 in 6.1 innings before heading to the DL. I think the general consensus at that point was pretty much “Wha’ Happen?”

Holland, however, came back from the DL fairly quickly and hit the ground running. He returned to the bullpen on May 12 and threw 6.2 innings that month. He posted a 1.35 ERA with 8 K’s in that small sample size. Although he also walked 6, he only allowed a .095 batting average. And he never looked back.

Holland finished the season with a 7-4 record and 16 saves, becoming the closer after Jonathan Broxton  was traded to the Reds along with his giant pants. In 67 innings of work, Holland had an ERA of 2.96 and struck out 91 batters – that’s a rate of 12.22 K’s per 9 innings. According to Fangraphs, his WAR of 2.2 was the highest of any pitcher in Kansas City last season.

Alcides Escobar was honored this year with the Special Achievement Award. I can’t argue with this. Escobar is a freak. He may not be the team MVP, but he is definitely special. All he did this year was rack up 177 hits (most ever by a KC shortstop), steal 35 bases, hit 30 doubles, 7 triples, and raise his AVG and OBP both by about 40 points. Oh…and he makes highlight reel plays in the field pretty much every night. Well deserved award.

I got screwed out of TWO awards? Seriously? Mandatory Credit: Denny Medley-US PRESSWIRE

Another award was given to Lorenzo Cain (seriously?), naming him the Royals Defensive Player of the Year. Yes, really. The same Lorenzo Cain who, due to injury, only managed to play 61 games in 2012. Yes…I know Alex Gordon won the Gold Glove.

Don’t get me wrong. I love Cain. I think he’s got a ton of potential and, if he can stay healthy, might prove to be the best defensive outfielder on the team. But for this year? Come on!

Gordon played 161 games with a 14.1 UZR versus Cain’s 61 games and 7 UZR. Gordon won his second straight Gold Glove in left field. And to top it off, Gordon got screwed out of the Player of the Year award. Give the guy SOMETHING. This one should have been a lock. I was shocked Cain received this honor. I won’t be shocked if he wins in the future…but for 2012, it should’ve been Alex.

Now pitching for your Kansas City Royals, Ervin Santana. Mandatory Credit: Steven Bisig-US PRESSWIRE

Dayton Moore made a nice move yesterday, adding some much needed depth to a thin rotation. I don’t think anyone can say the Ervin Santana trade is a bad one. Giving up a fringe prospect for a proven big league starter is a steal, and the Royals are only on the hook for one year. General consensus on sports radio and the online community is positive.

However, I heard Moore on the radio this morning claiming the acquisition of Santana upgrades the rotation. Does it?

There’s not a doubt in my mind that Santana is now (probably) the best pitcher on this staff. In that sense, it’s an upgrade…to one spot in the rotation (the one currently vacated by Guthrie). Santana is only 29 and just one season removed from being a damn good pitcher. Heck, even last year, which was definitely not good (to put it nicely), he pitched like his former self during when it counted.

On the downside, he gave up a major league high 39 home runs, and Fangraphs had his WAR at -0.9, which is even worse than the 1.5 WAR of Luke Hochevar. So what happened in 2012? And will we see a repeat or a return to form?

For his career, Santana has given up 1.24 home runs per 9 innings – in 2012, however, that number rose 1.97 per 9. His HR/FB ratio was also through the roof in 2012, sitting at 18.9% versus a career rate of 10.8%.

So where did Santana go wrong last year? Most of his other numbers were similar to what he did in 2010 and 2011 – seasons which saw him win a total of 28 games and put up ERA’s of 3.92 and 3.38.

His K/9 numbers were down a little from 2011 (from 7.01 to 6.72), but were still in line with his 2010 rate of 6.83. His K and BB rates were pretty in line with his career numbers of 18.6% for K and 7.6% for BB (in 2012 he was at 17.4% and 8%). Santana put up a respectable WHIP of 1.27 (better than his 1.30 career number) and batters only hit .238 against him.

Looking further at what types of hits he gave up…everything was in line with those two prior seasons (line drives, ground balls, fly balls), with the exception of home runs allowed.

Judging by his month-by-month performance from 2012, there is reason to be optimistic. From August through the end of the season, Santana looked like the guy batters were used to seeing on the mound. In August he put up a 3.58 ERA, and in September/October he had a 3.68 ERA. Batters hit lower than .200 against him in both months. He struck out a total of 55 hitters in that stretch and only walked 16.

Even while pitching like a front line hurler over that stretch, though…Santana still had trouble with the long ball, giving up about 2.18 per 9 while otherwise performing like a top shelf starter.

I’m not sure what caused this spike. He’s always given up homers…but almost 40? Maybe he just threw a handful of awful pitches. Maybe spacious Kauffman Stadium will subtract 10-15 homers off his total of 39. What I’m saying is this: I don’t know why balls were leaving the park, but from what I can tell, it was a fluke.

Dan Haren…another potential target for the Royals? Mandatory Credit: Kelvin Kuo-US PRESSWIRE

If Santana pitches like he’s capable, he’s by far the best pitcher on this team – a potential number one starter for a rotation in need. All that said…is Santana, as Moore claims, an upgrade to the rotation? No…not yet.

As it stands, if you don’t count Jeremy Guthrie among our starting five (which I’m not, as he’s a free agent), we basically have replaced Guthrie, our top pitcher from 2012, with Santana. After that…we have the same group of number four and five types filling out the rotation.

I’ll take Moore at his word though. He says the Royals aren’t done making moves, and I think that’s probably true. However, they are going to have to make a couple more major additions like Santana before I’ll agree with Dayton that the rotation – as a whole – has been upgraded.

With the price on Santana being so low…Dayton should push redial and ask the Angels about Dan Haren. A 1-2 punch of Haren and Santana is an upgraded rotation. Even better…a 1-2-3 of Haren, Santana, and Guthrie. That’s a rotation that just might sneak a team into the playoffs.

Chris Volstad, your newest Kansas City Royals pitcher. Mandatory Credit: Troy Taormina-US PRESSWIRE

The move itself doesn’t bother me. Why not grab a cheap 26-year-old pitcher and see what happens? Most likely he’ll be used as insurance against injury, as he’s yet to show he can be a successful big league pitcher. But it doesn’t hurt anything for KC to take a gamble.

It’s the attitude of our front office that bothers me. In an article  by Bob Dutton, Dayton Moore said:

“We know who we are and how we have to build this team,” general manager Dayton Moore said, “and how we have to build our rotation. We’re going to be as aggressive as we can, but we know who we are and how we need to do it.”

Ummm…what? How are we supposed to interpret that comment? Does he mean that we know we need depth, so we are being smart and grabbing players we can stash in AAA in case of emergency? Or is he saying that the Royals can never hope to compete in free agency, and we can never dream of picking up an established starting pitcher?

My fear is Moore means the latter. Moore goes on in the same article to say building a team in Kansas City through the free agent market won’t work. Plain and simple. And I don’t disagree…the team doesn’t have the big market dollars to throw around. However, ownership should have enough money to go out and pick up a couple of legit players. If the scouts and front office officials believe in the position players and bullpen, they can afford to spend on a couple of starting pitchers.

If those players aren’t available, the Royals need to look long and hard at whom they are willing to part with in a trade. Moore does say the trade market is a viable option for the Royals, so that’s not out of the question. I also don’t necessarily believe Moore has the stones to pull off a big deal.

The comment from Moore, in my opinion, just reeks of a defeatist attitude. I’ve defended Moore for the most part during his tenure. I think he’s done a lot of great things here with getting David Glass to spend in the draft and raising the team’s presence in the international market, but maybe that’s where Moore belongs. Head of scouting or player development might be more in his wheelhouse.

I guess I shouldn’t fault Moore for setting his sites lower – most people in his position would probably get beaten down after a few years running this team. But the fans deserve better than that.

“We’re going to be as aggressive as we can, but we know who we are…”

Hey…we’re just the Royals… Mandatory Credit: Peter G. Aiken-US PRESSWIRE

Not exactly confidence building words. We’ve gone from Glass saying that we’ll spend money on the rotation and doing what needs to be done…to this. So much for the excitement fans were feeling. The chatter among Royals fans for the last several weeks has been “Who do you think we’re going to bring in? Anibal Sanchez? Dan Haren?”

The talk moving forward will probably sound more like the fans from the first “Major League” movie. “Chris freaking Volstad? Who are these freaking guys?”

(I went ahead and edited that last part for basic cable)

The difference being, of course, this is not a feel good baseball movie where a bunch of loveable losers go to the playoffs. This is real life.  We need a GM who won’t basically go on record and say “Oh well…we’re just the Royals. This how we operate.”

It’s about time for the front office to stop preparing the fans for failure and start figuring out how to win.

Hosmer had a tough 2012. Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement-US PRESSWIRE

There have been plenty of complaints about the Royals pitching. We know that’s got to get better. But what about the hitting? The front office seems to think the pieces are in place, and most fans are quick to agree, even with the struggles of guys like Eric Hosmer and Mike Moustakas. Even if Dayton Moore makes a repair or two in the rotation, the team still needs to score runs. Will they be ready?

In 2011, the offense showed great promise and put up 730 runs on the season. Kevin Seitzer was a genius and was credited with “fixing” guys like Alex Gordon, Melky Cabrera, and Jeff Francoeur. Then Eric Hosmer came up to the big leagues after ripping apart pitchers in AAA and looked like a natural. We saw Gordon struggle for a few years before hitting his stride in 2011. Hosmer, on the other hand, seemed like the type who would produce from day one. For all of 2011, he did just that…2012, however, was another story.

What happened? Does the blame fall on Seitzer? Was it just a sophomore slump? What causes a guy to have a drop of 61 points in batting average, 30 in OBP, and 106 in SLG? In 2012, Hosmer had 35 more plate appearances than in his rookie campaign, yet had 29 less hits with 5 less home runs and 5 less doubles.

I remember watching games this season and thinking to myself that Hosmer had to have the worst luck of any hitter on this team. Really of any hitter I’d closely watched in quite some time. It seems like he hit the ball hard pretty often, but always right at a defender. Don’t get me wrong, Hosmer had those stretches where he went into legitimate slumps, hitting soft grounders and easy fly outs. But how much of this season was bad luck vs. just plain bad?

For starters, I’m going take a quick look at his plate discipline. Hosmer’s walk rate was up 3.4% this year vs. 2011. His strikeout rate was also up, but only by 1.3%. In 2011, while hitting .293, his OBP was 41 points higher at .334. This year his average dipped all the way to .232, but his OBP was 72 points higher at .304. In the end…the .304 is obviously quite a bit worse than the year before…but the fact that his OBP was so much higher than his average in 2011 shows me he had a better eye this year.

If he was judging the strike zone at an improved rate from 2011, where did the dip in production come from? Was he not driving the ball? His line drive rate, according to FanGraphs, was basically identical – with 18.7% in 2011 vs. 18.5% in 2012. This tells me my initial thoughts about bad luck definitely have something to do with the drop in numbers. Hits that were driven into the outfield gaps or past diving infielders were now being driven into the gloves of shortstops and right fielders.

Taking a little bit closer of a look at luck, I can see Hosmer had a sharp decline in BABIP (batting average on balls in play). In 2011 that number was at .314, but dropped all the way to .255 in 2012. This goes back to his line drive rate being the same while giving him vastly different results.

All of this might have accounted for the drop in base hits and a lower amount of doubles, but what about Hosmer’s home run power? This was the area of most concern to me. Hosmer’s ground ball rate was up from 2011 by 3.9% while his fly ball rate was down by 3.8% – basically one offsets the other. If he’s hitting less balls into the outfield, he’s going to have less opportunity to see them carry over the wall. In addition to that drop, Hosmer also saw a drop of 2.2% in his HR-to-FB ratio.

Former hitting coach Kevin Seitzer. Mandatory Credit: Tom Szczerbowski-US PRESSWIRE

Judging from the first batch of statistics I looked at, I see no reason to think Hosmer can’t turn around next year and hit .290, which is more in line with 2011. But what type of hitter will he ultimately be? Will he put up numbers similar to Alex Gordon and be a guy who hits a ton of doubles with 20 HR power? Or will some of those grounders turn back into fly balls, and those fly balls into homers?

Maybe that’s where a guy like Kevin Seitzer is somewhat to blame. Seitzer was never a power guy, and from all accounts, he taught what he knew – wait for your pitch and drive the ball to all fields. I’m not saying that’s a bad approach at all, but on a team without much power, maybe it’s not the best approach for everyone. Maybe it resulted in some guys, like Hosmer, tinkering too much and hitting for less power.

I’m not even sure how much of an effect hitting coaches have at this level. And I know Hosmer had some prolonged slumps this year that came from legitimately bad hitting. Maybe a new coach will make an impact…or maybe Hosmer just needs a little luck.

Win? I just want to break even. Mandatory Credit: Peter G. Aiken-US PRESSWIRE

Baseball is a sport. Sports success is measured in wins and losses by fans, players, general managers, etc. I like to think team owners measure success the same way. Some do. I’m not sure David Glass does.

Mr. Glass has stated many times that his number one goal every year is to “break even.” When that’s the first thing out of your mouth, as it was during a Royals broadcast at the end of the 2012 season, it doesn’t sound like winning is a top priority.

I know…baseball is also a business, and the owners should run it like one. However, sports are a little different than the “normal” business venture. For example, when the local Target store remodeled to add a full grocery, local citizens weren’t asked to vote for a tax increase that paid for the upgrade. You know, like the citizens of Kansas City did when Glass wanted to upgrade the stadium (resulting in an increased value to his business).

Most people were happy to vote in favor of the stadium upgrades. The citizens of any town with a sports franchise want to be proud. They want a team they can be proud of and facilities to match. They also want an owner with the drive to win on the field.

To be fair, there have been some strides made with this ownership group. Hiring Dayton Moore, the hotshot general manager candidate at the time, was step one. Allowing Moore to increase scouting efforts, and funding those efforts, was step two. So far, so good. We trust “the process.” The team starts shelling out big bucks to the high draft picks, bringing in top shelf talent. Eventually, this process gains the respect of national baseball writers and gurus, and Kansas City has the number one ranked farm system in all of baseball.

Personally, I’m loving it. “This is going great!” Or so I would tell myself. Sure, the big league team was going through one losing season after another. “But just wait,” I would tell anyone who would listen, “we’ve got Billy Butler, Alex Gordon, and Zack Greinke.” Later it was, “We’ve got Mike Montgomery, Danny Duffy, Mike Moustakas, Eric Hosmer, and Wil Myers!”

I followed the minors closely…waiting for the next big prospect to arrive. It made the losing at the big league level easier to swallow. I made a point of going to “The K” to witness the major league debuts of guys like Greinke, Gordon, and Hosmer. When fans of other teams would tell me my Royals sucked, I would tell them, “Just wait…it won’t be long now.”

Well, I’m still waiting. A little disenfranchised…but still hopeful. I do believe that teams in a market like Kansas City should build from within as much as possible. Identify the best talent and draft them, trade for them, etc. Then hope like hell that some of them pan out. When they do, you hope the team can identify the best of the best and lock them up to long-term deals. When they don’t…you hope the general manager and the owner will recognize they swung and missed on a guy and cut their losses.

The worst. Mandatory Credit: Peter G. Aiken-US PRESSWIRE

It’s cutting losses that has been a problem in Kansas City. This team consistently trotted out two of the worst starting pitchers ever. EVER. These guys, Kyle Davies and Luke Hochevar, could not, for whatever reason, pitch their way out of the rotation. Eventually, the Davies experiment ended. We are still in the midst of the Hochevar nightmare…which is more scary than a creepy clown.

I don’t know who to blame here – David Glass or Dayton Moore? Probably both. Moore is too stubborn to give up on the guy. But Glass is the owner here…the boss. Do you think, to throw out an extreme example, George Steinbrenner would have allowed this to go on when he owned the New York Yankees? No way. And yes…Steinbrenner overstepped boundaries all the time and is the extreme example of a “hands on” owner. Say what you will about Mr. Steinbrenner, though. The guy wanted to WIN.

Look at it this way:

“Should you find yourself in a chronically leaking boat, energy devoted to changing vessels is likely to be more productive than energy devoted to patching leaks. “

That quote is from Warren Buffet, widely considered the most successful investor of our time. Does that help put things in terms you can relate to, Mr. Glass?

It’s time to put an end to the Luke Hochevar era. You already came out and said you’re spending money on pitching this offseason. It’s been talked about for weeks now…that’s the priority of this team. The front office believes in the position players and bullpen, and probably rightfully so for the most part.

It’s not enough to just spend money on a patchwork rotation. Agreeing to spend money is step one. Step two: no longer accepting mediocrity. It’s okay to let go, or to sit players down. I know…Frenchy would be an expensive part time player, but sometimes you have to operate in the red a little to gain ground. We don’t need to give raises to guys like Hochevar or even Chris Getz. There are other options.

It’s time to put up or shut up. It’s time to go out on the open market and buy a real pitcher – or trade for a pitcher you’re willing to pay big bucks. It’s time to stop patching leaks. Put your best 25 players on the roster, regardless of salary or service time or 40 man roster issues.

Mr. Glass, if you want to keep your fans coming back for more, you need to make a statement. It’s time to cut your losses, invest wisely, and win.

Another season of Royals baseball has ended short of the playoffs. All the talk will now be

Gordon or Butler for Royals MVP? Mandatory Credit: John Rieger-US PRESSWIRE

about the postseason or arguing over who should win the awards this year – specifically the AL MVP race, pitting Mike Trout of the Los Angeles Angels against Detroit Tigers Triple Crown winner Miguel Cabrera. That’s an interesting topic, though being a Royals site, I will bring the argument to Kansas City and we’ll look more at the argument of Billy Butler vs. Alex Gordon.

The Royals version of the argument is a similar one – though on a smaller scale. Trout is the all around player, the stat geek darling who, according to Fangraphs, has a 10.4 WAR, versus Cabrera’s obvious dominance in the three “big” or, some would argue “old school” categories this season, leading to his winning the first Triple Crown in 45 years – since Carl Yastrzemski in 1967.

Bringing it back to the local level, we have a similar argument in Kansas City. Billy Butler was the guy swining the big stick all season, and won the KC Triple Crown with his .313 AVG, 29 homers, and 107 RBI. Gordon, on the other hand had the highest WAR on the team with a 5.8 (tied for 5^th highest in the American League this year), which of course takes into account his increased value as a defensive player and base runner.

When you flip over a Billy Butler baseball card and see those stats on the back, you probably assume he was far and away the best Royals player this year. Gordon’s stat line, by the way, is .294 with 14 homers and 72 RBI. Not even close really. However, grading on WAR, you can see Gordon is far higher than Butler in the AL rankings this year.

Looking at the numbers above, it’s not as easy to just chalk up a victory for Butler (or Cabrera). We are trying to figure out the most valuable PLAYER…not the most valuable HITTER. That being the case, winning the Triple Crown – while a huge accomplishment, and obviously vey rare – does not necessarily make someone the MVP (of the American League or the Royals). While Cabrera accomplished the feat in the traditional sense, you could argue that Trout won his own Triple Crown, leading the league in runs, steals, and WAR. Not as conventional, but still a “Triple Crown”.

In this case, the value of guys like Trout and Gordon are obviously bumped due to their defensive skills and ability to run the bases. The base running thing comes much more into play for Trout than Gordon, obviously – but still, the point here is that both of these players are more quick on their feet than either Cabrera or Butler.

Looking at Butler vs. Gordon, we have Butler leading Gordon in OBP, SLG, OPS, AVG, HR, RBI. He also struck out at a lower rate than Gordon (a 3.1% difference) meaning he at least put the ball into play more often. Gordon of course stole more bases (but only 10 to Billy’s 2) and walked more often (2.1% higher rate than Butler). In addition, Gordon played Gold Glove caliber defense in left field again and has a higher base running score with a 1.9 while Billy put up a -5.7.

WAR says Gordon is a more valuable player but in looking at the raw numbers, Billy is the more valuable hitter by quite a bit, in my opinion. Both guys have their obvious value. Considering Billy was in a lineup spot that enabled him to collect RBI, where Gordon was leading off most of the year, the RBI comparison isn’t really a fair one. On the flip side, Gordon scored quite a bit more runs than Billy for the same reason. Looking at those numbers, we can easily come up with runs produced for each player (runs + RBI – home runs), which comes out to 151 for Gordon and 150 for Butler.

It’s a simple way of looking at things, but balances out the difference a bit for guys when they play different roles due to their lineup positions. You don’t expect Gordon to drive in 110 runs while batting leadoff, just as you don’t expect Butler to score runs like a leadoff hitter. Looking at the 151-150 runs produced, the two are very even with run production.

Given that he (barely) wins with number of runs produced, and has the clear advantage in the field and as a base runner, I’d give the nod to Gordon. WAR was apparently correct in valuing Gordon higher in this case. He’s been the best all around PLAYER this year, and I’d say that makes him a bit more valuable.

October 03, 2012; Kansas City, MO, USA; Detroit Tigers fans show their support for Detroit Tigers third basemen Miguel Cabrera

On the national level, it’s a similarly close case. Cabrera did win the Triple Crown of course, which is hard to ignore. Looking at runs produced for the two players, as we did for Gordon and Butler, Cabrera wins that battle as well by a score of 204 to 182. Trout does lead the way in WAR, as Gordon did over Butler with a 10.4 to Cabrera’s 7.2 and his defensive numbers are quite a bit more impressive with a UZR of 13.3, while Cabrera had a horrible -9.2 at third base for the Tigers. Trout also wins in base running (duh) with a value of 6.8 to -2.3 for Cabrera as well as 49 steals (leading the league) to just 4 for Cabrera.

I’m not sure how the MVP ballot will shake out this year…or, for that matter, who will win the Royals Player of the Year.

The baseball writers certainly have a tough job if they want to dig into things a bit. Or they could just take the easy way out and give it to the first Triple Crown winner in 45 years. My guess? Cabrera takes home the MVP hardware and Trout gets the nod for Rookie of the Year (in a landslide).

For the record, Trout and Gordon get the slight nods on my ballots, but I’m not sure there are any wrong answers here.

David Glass: All About Average. Mandatory Credit: Peter G. Aiken-US PRESSWIRE

We’ve all seen the comments from David Glass. The Royals position players and bullpen stack up with anyone in the division. It’s time to open up the checkbook and buy some quality starting pitching. Finally.

But then comes the rain on our parade. Glass says we can make a run at things with a pair of threes. That’s a heck of a bluff in poker…but in baseball? The other players at the table can see our cards. Can a pair of threes take us to the postseason? Do we even know what a “number three” starter really is?? Is there a definition? I’m going to define a “number three” and see where that might leave the pitching rotation in 2013.

To get really basic, a starting rotation is made up of five pitchers. Looking at it that way…you figure, ideally, you have two guys who are above league average (your numbers 1 and 2) and two guys who are probably below average (numbers 4 and 5). That leaves us with the third spot, sitting right in the middle of the rotation, the barrier between below average and above average. A number three pitcher is basically league average. That’s simple enough.

What is average?

Looking at it from a team aspect, the American League is made up of 14 teams with starting pitcher WAR that ranges from 19.3 (Detroit) all the way down to 2.4 (Minnesota). The Royals starting pitching, through Tuesday’s games, sits at 7.3, which is better than three other AL teams – the Blue Jays, the Indians, and the Twins (luckily, two of those teams are in our division).

The average AL starting rotation has a WAR of 9.65. Looking at average from that perspective, the league is split right down the middle with seven above and below average teams. The Royals are below average and out of contention. Six teams with above average rotations are still in the playoff hunt.

The one above average team not anywhere close to the postseason is Boston, with a 10.2 WAR. A couple of teams who are slightly below the mark are the Orioles at 9.5 and the Angels with a 9.3 (they rank 8 and 9, just behind Boston). Simply put, above average seems like the way to go.

I next looked at individual pitchers in my hunt to define that number three guy. I decided to include starting pitchers from both the AL and NL, and put a minimum of 100 innings pitched on my query. Fangraphs came back with 128 starting pitchers on a total of five pages.

That works out pretty well, with the number of pages being equal to number of spots in a rotation. I thought the best way to figure out what makes up an average pitcher in the big leagues would be to jump to page three. What I found was a group of pitchers who ranged from 2.3 to 1.6 WAR. Then I checked pages two and four, making sure to include everyone in the 2.3 through 1.6 range, with the results listed below.

The average WAR of the 35 pitchers listed above is 1.98. Taking that number and multiplying by 5, we get a total of 9.9, which is pretty close to where we started earlier with an average rotation WAR of 9.65 (remember with the team WAR, we only included AL teams).

We can safely say the average major league starting pitcher with at least 100 innings has a WAR of about 2. I think it’s safe to include all of the above guys, taking into account that guys will have up or down seasons.

Is Guthrie an ordinary average guy? Mandatory Credit: Peter G. Aiken-US PRESSWIRE

The Royals have one guy at the low end of our scale – Jeremy Guthrie, with a 1.6 WAR in 78 innings since coming to KC (the number is lower if you figure in his time with the Rockies). The current rotation of Guthrie, Luke Hochevar, Bruce Chen, Luis Mendoza, and Will Smith have a combined WAR of 6.2.

David Glass wants to shove his chips into the middle of the table with a pair of threes. Should he? Or should he fold and see what the next hand brings?

If you have read anything else I’ve written at this site, you know I am a proponent of cutting Luke Hochevar loose. This is my experiment, so bye-bye Luke.

We appear to be stuck with Bruce Chen (under contract through 2013), so we’ll leave him in the mix. Dayton Moore has expressed interest in retaining Guthrie. I’m still not nuts about the idea (depending on the contract), but he’s definitely had some nice success in KC. Some think he’s phenomenal, and he has looked good. I personally believe he’s pretty average (the Fangraphs WAR numbers agree), but hey, this team is all about average.

A big question with Guthrie, though: does he count towards our pair of threes? We’ll assume, given our owner’s history, that Guthrie is in fact one of our signings, giving us one more addition.

At this point we’ve got Guthrie and Chen for a combined WAR of 3. Let’s say our remaining addition brings a 2 WAR to town. That’s three pitchers at a combined WAR of 5, with two falling into our previously determined range of being average (Guthrie with his 1.6, and our Free Agent with a 2).

We can safely assume the rest of the rotation will be rounded out with two of the following: Smith, Mendoza, or Jake Odorizzi.

Jake’s an unknown at this point, but has more upside than anyone in the rotation. Given his potential, let’s

KC’s secret weapon? Mandatory Credit: Peter G. Aiken-US PRESSWIRE

plug him in as our number four and round things out with either of the other guys (I don’t really care which one), and assign the last two rotation spots a WAR value of 2.5 (combined). That puts us at 7.5, right about where we are right now.

Ok, so I took the scenic route to my point. What I’m saying is this: two average guys won’t do it.

If we upgrade from two to three average guys, each with a WAR of 2, and mix in two below average guys (let’s give them a each a 1.5), we’d have a total WAR of 9, which is absolutely better, still below average, but in the ballpark.

Sure, guys can pitch over or under (see Tim Lincecum, Dan Haren) their general skill level. Dan Haren is a guy, by the way, I think the Royals should be very interested in this winter. A possible “buy low” candidate who could come out firing in 2013.

So who knows? Maybe a couple of those 2 WAR guys put up better numbers and nudge our rotation to a WAR of 10 or 11. If that happens, we can absolutely hang tough in the Central. If Odorizzi hits the ground running, that certainly improves our chances.  Remember though, in this scenario of a WAR between 9 and 11, I upgraded to THREE average pitchers…not just a pair. Even then it’s no sure bet.

So, Mr. Glass, if the Royals are going to have a real chance…I’d recommend you have at least three of a kind heading into 2013. And you might want to consider setting your sights on something a little more “above average” before you think about going all in.

Kansas City Royals left fielder Alex Gordon. Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement-US PRESSWIRE

we know for certain – Alex Gordon is a heck of a hitter, whether leading off or batting third. But where SHOULD he hit?

Many fans are happy to see such a productive bat now hitting third, feeling Gordon is a run producer who was being wasted in the leadoff spot. Others will say he was great batting first, so why move him?

A case could be made either way. I’ll argue, with our current batch of position players, if Gordon’s not the leadoff hitter, who is?

It looks like the current lineup is likely to be intact in 2013, with the exception of Wil Myers being swapped in for Jeff Francoeur (Myers BETTER be our opening day right fielder). We have a pretty good idea of where most of these guys should fit into the lineup. That being the case…who is the leadoff man in 2013?

Candidate number one would be, in my opinion, Alcides Escobar. Escobar’s had a breakout 2012 at the plate, spending a great deal of time batting second. He’s got great contact skills, and while he doesn’t walk much, he puts the ball in play a lot. He’s got great speed, which most baseball people will tell you is key for the leadoff role, although it’s certainly not a requirement. Out of legitimate candidates for this spot, Escobar’s got a solid OBP, but still…it’s only .333 vs. a number like .360 for Gordon.

Kansas City Royals center fielder Lorenzo Cain (left) and Kansas City Royals short stop Alcides Escobar (right). Mandatory Credit: Kelvin Kuo-US PRESSWIRE

Next I’d like to nominate Lorenzo Cain. Yes, he’s had a rough season with injuries to his legs, but in his career as a professional, he’s not shown a tendency to be injury prone. I’m a believer that he’ll play a lot next year, after taking this winter to get healthy.

Like Escobar, Cain has fantastic speed. He put up some good numbers for Milwaukee in 2010, including a .348 OBP, which is higher than Escobar’s put up this year (although Escobar has done it over a much longer stretch). Cain’s shown quite a bit more pop than Escobar. Some would say his power would be wasted in the leadoff spot, although nobody said a good leadoff man can’t drive the ball (Gordon being a prime example). Until Cain shows he can get on base at a rate comparable to Gordon, though, I don’t think he’s the man. If he can stay healthy and prove he can get on like he did in 2010, he could be the guy.

I think we can safely rule out most of the other hitters on this team. Eric Hosmer, Billy Butler, Mike Moustakas, Salvador Perez…not really leadoff material. We know those guys ideally make up the middle of the order.

That leaves us with a couple more options. We’ve got Chris Getz, should he get the bulk of playing time at second base, and we’ve got Jarrod Dyson, who could play CF if Cain doesn’t prove to be durable. Maybe Dyson and Cain split time in CF, in an attempt to keep them both healthy and play the lefty/righty splits.

Looking at Getz, I’m not a believer. The Royals want Johnny Giavotella to win this job. He’s their guy. And it’s not like Getz has set the world on fire. Sure, he hit .275 this year in 64 games, but only got on base at a .314 clip. Dyson performed better, with a .333 OBP through 92 games, and has blazing speed.

So, are you sold on anyone yet? Or, like me…are you thinking to yourself, “Why NOT Alex Gordon?”

Look at this way, the lineup is an infinite loop. The guys who start it off will hit again before anyone else, meaning they hit more often. You want Gordon hitting more often than Getz, right? This means you want your best guys at the top, stacked up one after the other, driving each other in again and again.

To me, as the roster currently stands, the only real choice is Alex Gordon. Sure, he can drive the ball and collect RBI when in position to do so. But he can also be the guy who sets the table. Yes, Gordon with the third best SLG on the team, and the third best OPS on the team…but also the second best OBP.

“But all those doubles are meant to drive in base runners,” is what you’ll argue. Well allow me to retort.

Those same doubles put him in scoring position for guys like Escobar, Butler, Perez, Hosmer, Moose, etc. Is it wasting his ability to drive the ball into the gaps, when those doubles put him in scoring position? I don’t think so. Let Gordon hit 48 doubles and 5 triples from that spot. Let Escobar slap a single and drive him home, or just put the ball in play and move him to third. Then let the big boys knock him in. And hey, if Gordon hits a leadoff home run, what’s wrong with that? Nobody complained when Rickey Henderson did it. Isn’t Gordon just as valuable with an .800 OPS and 100 runs scored as he would be with an .800 OPS collecting RBI?

I think he is. And until someone else makes it obvious they can do the job…if not Gordon, then who?

Cain, a 26 year old center fielder, put up some great numbers with the Brewers in 2010,

Kansas City Royals center fielder Lorenzo Cain (6) after hitting a two run home run in the ninth inning against the Chicago White Sox. Mandatory Credit: David Banks-US PRESSWIRE

playing stellar defense and putting up a .743 OPS in 43 games. I was pretty excited to see him come over in the Zack Greinke deal, and was disappointed when he spent 2011 in Omaha (although with good reason, given how our outfield performed).

Heading into 2012, with Melky Cabrera out of the way, I looked forward to seeing Cain roaming the outfield and playing some exciting baseball. Unfortunately, a hip flexor injury sidelined him, and from what I’ve read, is probably still bothering him to a degree. I don’t think we’ve seen him play to his full ability yet in KC although, even at less than 100%, he still looks pretty smooth roaming center field.

I’ve been keeping an eye on Cain, trying to figure out what we have here, by comparing to him some old Royals. What I’m hoping is that he is comparable to one of my favorite players of all time, Amos Otis.

Cain is much bigger at 6’2 and 200 pounds vs. 5’11 and 165 for Otis, but he appears to have a similar skill set and an equally smooth way of playing the game. Otis was a more proven commodity at age 26, having his breakout season when he was just 23, but something about Cain makes me think he could be a similar player.

5 time All-Star, 3 time Gold Glove winner Amos Otis

In his best years with the Royals (1970-79) Otis averaged 146 games per season, with 29 doubles, 5 triples, 16 homers, and 29 steals while putting up a solid .798 OPS. During that same stretch, he also averaged a WAR of 3.8, with 4.1 on offense and -0.3 on defense (I find it hard to believe he had a negative defensive WAR, but so be it).

Cain has seen limited major league time so far, with only 109 games over parts of three seasons. Adding up his totals for that 109 games, he’s put up some decent numbers with 20 doubles, 3 triples, 8 homers, 16 steals, and a .735 OPS. Not quite up to the numbers Otis put up, but not bad either. Over that 109 game stretch, Cain has put up a WAR of 3.5, falling just short of the 3.8 Otis averaged.

Looking at the WAR numbers, Cain might be a little better than Otis in the field, which I think will be more apparent once he’s had time to heal this winter, and we may see more plays like THIS.

I’m not sure if he’s got the speed of Otis, but he’s much bigger, and I think will hit for more power. Taking what he’s averaged in 60 games and 240 plate appearances this year and projecting it out over 140 games (the Royals have played 142), Cain would have something along the lines of 19 doubles, 5 triples, 16 homers, and 21 steals in 560 plate appearances. On the downside, he’d project out to only 33 walks with 128 K’s. Ideally, you’d like to see a little more patience here and a higher OBP.

If the Royals get anything near the production Otis put up in the 1970′s, we could witness some all-star caliber play from Cain, and may have an outfield in Gordon, Cain, and Wil Myers that rivals that of Beltran, Damon, and Dye. Of course, like those teams in the late 90′s and early 2000′s, the offense will only take us as far as our pitching…but that’s another story.

I get it. Kind of. I understand where Dayton Moore is coming from with the 40 man roster issues, and how

Mandatory Credit: Matt Ryerson-US PRESSWIRE

we’d have to pull someone off to place Myers on. But seriously…come on…we get to watch guys like Mike Trout and Bryce Harper playing for their respective teams to varying degrees of success…but at least they are getting their shot (I don’t think there’s any arguing that Trout is more than ready).

Looking at those two as a jumping off point, I don’t think anyone would expect Myers to have hit the ground running like Trout. The Angels superstar is a freak like we haven’t seen since 1989, when Seattle fans were getting fat on Ken Griffey, Jr. candy bars. Although, looking back, Griffey’s first year was more in line with Harper’s 2012 campaign.

What could we possibly expect from Myers? Is he ready to hit at this level? Does he have things to work on that warrant keeping him in Omaha, or is this whole thing just a team afraid to make a roster move and take a chance…keeping Myers in AAA to stop his big league service clock from ticking?

One way to glimpse what might have been is to project what Myers’ numbers would translate to using Minor League Equivalency numbers. I know…you’re thinking, “I was told there would be no math.” I’ll keep it pretty simple. These MLE projections have been around a while now, with Bill James being the first person I remember coming up with the idea. In fact, I still have a couple of my old Bill James Baseball Abstracts laying around, and in the 1986 version, he calls it “Major League Equivalency” in the glossary.

The formula has been improved upon a great deal over the years, although once again, James was ahead of his time. But as we moved into the information age and more data was collected, as Baseball Think Factory explains in depth, we had more information at our disposal. Having more factors to throw into the mix enables us to come up with (theoretically) more accurate projections.

With the help of a MLE calculator, I’m going to plug in Myers’ AAA numbers from this season and see how they translate (not adding in his AA stats).

With the Storm Chasers, Myers has put up impressive numbers, as we all know. In his 388 at bats (through Sept. 4) he has 15 doubles, 5 triples, and 24 homers, adding up to a .554 slugging percent. In addition, he’s got a .304 AVG and .378 OBP, all amounting to an impressive .932 OPS. I don’t need to talk these numbers up…the guy won top honors from Baseball America. Enough said.

Let’s plug these numbers into the calculator and see what it spits out. What we find is that he projects, had he played that time in Kansas City, to have 399 at bats, 104 hits, 13 doubles, 4 triples, and 19 homers. That comes out to a batting average of .261 and a .318 OBP (a drop of 60 points). His power stroke translates pretty well, with a .453 projected SLG. It’s 100 points lower, but for a young player, very good. This means of course that his OPS will also be lower, coming down from a .932 to a less impressive .771 in the big leagues – still a solid number, especially for a 21 year old.

Judging solely by this idea of MLE it appears Myers would be more in line with a rookie season like that of Harper or Griffey. Not that there’s anything wrong with that. That .771 OPS he’s projected at would be fourth best on the team behind Billy Butler, Salvador Perez, and Alex Gordon. Not to mention about 130 points higher than the albatross he’d replace in right field.

Keep in mind, these MLE numbers don’t project what a player will do once they get the call from their parent team. It simply takes the numbers they actually DID put up, and translates them using park factors, etc. It doesn’t factor in a player’s confidence or hot streaks, nor does it figure in a prolonged slump. For all we know, Myers could have come up after the All Star break and hit .315 for the Royals. Then again, he could’ve hit .220, as we saw Trout do in 2011 through 40 games.

Which brings me to another point. Should Myers get the call now, get his feet wet, in case he does struggle like Trout? Maybe. Maybe not. There are plenty of guys who start a season with no prior experience and do just fine. We likely won’t find out. And while it’s nice to see guys like David Lough get a shot, he’s clearly not a player on the level of Wil Myers.

Mandatory Credit: H. Darr Beiser-USA TODAY Sports via US PRESSWIRE

It’s hard to say what would have happened had KC cleared some room for Myers. But he couldn’t have been much worse than Frenchy, and likely would have been better. In comparison to the rookies I mentioned before, Myers certainly wouldn’t have put up Trout-like numbers (I wouldn’t bet on it anyway), but I’m guessing could have been for KC what Harper was for the Nationals.

Hopefully we’ll find out soon enough…with headlines like “Wil Power” floating around it’s only making a hungry fan base more anxious to see Myers make a splash.

Congrats on a heck of a 2012, Wil. Hope to see you on Opening Day.

I wrote an article last week about Jeremy Guthrie, and how he is not the solution to the Royals pitching woes. I also took a parting shot at Luke Hochevar, and how he once again has turned it on (at least for the time being) which will most likely result in him being a part of the rotation again in 2013.

This can’t happen. The Royals ever changing date to become competitive now sits at 2014, unless…it hasn’t changed again, has it? I see no reason they can’t get a lot better than that a little bit sooner, as in next year, if the team is ready to end the Luke Hochevar era.

If you go back and read the end of my last article, and the ensuing discussion that took place in the comments, you’ll see a conversation about Hochevar, which made me think maybe I wasn’t being fair…maybe I should dig a little deeper when judging Luke. So I did. Looking at the stats, I don’t think I was wrong.

Here we go.

July 14, 2012; Kansas City, MO, USA; Kansas City Royals starting pitcher Luke Hochevar (44) is relieved by manager. Mandatory Credit: Denny Medley-US PRESSWIRE

We’ll begin with Quality Starts (QS). This is a start in which a pitcher goes 6 innings and gives up no more than 3 earned runs. Basically,  if a pitcher has a QS, he’s left his team in a position to win. In 2012, of all American League starters, Luke ranks 32nd in QS. Of his 26 starts this year, 12 have been quality, meaning he gives KC a chance to win 46 percent of the time. The White Sox and Tigers, the good teams in the Central, have a combined six pitchers (three each) ahead of Hochevar in this category.

So quality isn’t Luke’s thing. Let’s look at runs allowed per 9 innings (not just earned, but unearned runs). Luke allows 5.4 runs per 9 innings. According to Baseball Reference, the teams he has faced this year have scored an average of 4.55 runs per 9, which means Hochevar allows almost a full run more than his opponents generally score.

Not only does Hochevar not stack up against opposing batters, the average starting pitcher is also better. The average starter, against the same opponents, with the same Royals defense behind him, would only give up 4.8 runs per 9 innings. Meaning what? Luke is below average.

Now let’s shift gears and look at WAR, or Wins Above Replacement. This measures the number of wins a player gives his team over a replacement level player (minor league call up due to injury, for example). This is not comparing a big league player to the league average, but to someone who couldn’t even make the team. Detroit’s Justin Verlander has a WAR of 5.8, even after being roughed up by KC. Chris Sale, the young White Sox ace, has a WAR of 5.2. Those are the two best pitchers on the teams fighting for this division.

Hochevar has a 0.1 WAR.

On his own merits, regardless of the team around him, Luke has the talent and sheer willpower to get his team one-tenth of a victory.

The problem doesn’t begin and end with Hochevar. The currently active Royals pitchers with the most starts, minus Hochevar, are Bruce Chen, Luis Mendoza, Will Smith, and Jeremy Guthrie. The highest WAR among this group is 0.7, belonging to Mendoza. Guthrie only has a WAR of 0.1 since coming to KC. Which goes back to my claim of Guthrie not being an answer any more than Hochevar. Well, probably a little more than Hochevar, as Guthrie has seasons of 3.7, 3.8, and 4.3 WAR in his past. Luke has a 0.9 career high.

The key to fixing this rotation doesn’t begin with who we may or may not trade for or sign this winter. It begins with an amputation. The rotation has Type 2 Diabetes. Luke is the foot that has to go.

If Dayton Moore takes Hochevar to arbitration, he’s going to get a raise. I’ve seen estimates in the $6 million range. Cutting Hochevar allows us to redirect those dollars towards a better pitcher. Why pay Luke when it hinders the ability to sign a much better pitcher in the $15 million range?

The White Sox pitching staff has a combined WAR of 18.5 versus 9.2 for the Royals. Detroit has a 15.7 pitching WAR. It doesn’t take a complete overhaul of the Royals staff. But it does take one or most likely two very good starting pitchers. The White Sox have Sale at 5.2 and Jake Peavy with a 4.7 WAR. Detroit’s top guys are Verlander and Max Scherzer at 5.8 and 2.4, respectively.

August 17, 2012; Detroit, MI, USA; Detroit Tigers starting pitcher. Mandatory Credit: Rick Osentoski-US PRESSWIRE

The math is simple. Subtract Luke’s salary and frustrating mediocrity. Add a high dollar pitcher who can post a WAR of 5 or more. Luis Mendoza, Will Smith, or Jake Odorizzi can do just as much as Luke, if not more, at a fraction of the cost.

Maybe Odorizzi breaks out. Maybe Guthrie sticks around and has a solid year. Maybe Duffy and Paulino come back strong for a midseason boost. We’ve got plenty of maybes…we need a sure thing.

Jeremy Guthrie at Safeco Field. Mandatory Credit: Joe Nicholson-US PRESSWIRE

I can already see it. Dayton Moore made the statement several weeks ago that that the Royals will be going after pitching in the offseason (and for a while it looked like maybe at the trade deadline). We are promised some “real” pitching will be brought in. Here’s the part where they try to tell us Jeremy Guthrie is that real pitcher.

Well, let’s not be fooled by Guthrie’s recent hot streak, and more importantly, by the front office this winter when they tell us a big part of the rotation fix is Guthrie. He’s not top of the rotation talent. No way. Granted…he’s better than what we’ve seen here in a little while, but Guthrie is not the solution. The solution is bringing in a couple of guys who are at minimum number two starters in a rotation (in a REAL rotation – not in a typical Royals rotation).

I don’t mean to be completely down on Dayton Moore and David Glass – actually, I am completely down on Glass, but not Moore – there are some positives in the Guthrie situation.

The first positive is after we had given up on Jonathan Sanchez, and were ready to walk away; Moore was actually able to get someone to give the Royals something in exchange for Sanchez. I know…I couldn’t believe it either. I can’t even pull deals like that with the worst owner in my fantasy league. So we swapped out Sanchez for Guthrie, and landed a veteran guy who has had some success in the big leagues. And not just success against bad teams, but was good pitching against the lineups in the AL East. That’s a major victory for Moore, and helped our pitching staff tremendously this year. So we’ve got that going for us…which is nice.

The second positive is, going back to what I just said, the fact that this guy has had some great success against a tough division. In a rotation that features Luke Hochevar, Bruce Chen, and Luis Mendoza; Guthrie becomes the instant ace. Don’t get me wrong, I’m not calling him an ACE, but he’s the Royals ace, which is sad, but at the same time, adding a guy who is better than all your other starters can’t totally be a bad thing.

All that said, here is where Dayton Moore will fly us into the danger zone. He promised a fixed up rotation. And I don’t doubt for one second that Moore wants to fix the rotation and win…whether Glass will put up the cash is another story. So Moore, with his hands somewhat tied, will tell us (I can hear it now), “We really like what Jeremy brings to the table. He’s a solid veteran and great clubhouse guy, and we believe he will be a real contributor to the development and success of this team moving forward.” Then he will tell us that Guthrie could be our guy on opening day in 2013, blah, blah, blah. Nothing we haven’t heard before.

Here’s the thing – I agree with that, to a degree. He can be a part of the rotation. He can contribute, and he can probably be pretty good. He cannot, however, be a number one starter on a contender. Or a number two. He can possibly be a three, if Moore lands two pitchers who CAN be a one or two. Personally I would rather see him as a four, with Hochevar and Chen gone, but there’s a lot of work that would have to go into one offseason to make that happen.

Here’s the thing…we all know Glass will sabotage Dayton’s offseason by giving him pennies to work with on the free agent market. On top of that, we’ve already got Chen on the payroll next year, and I imagine they will bring Luke back as well (unfortunately). So if Guthrie is given a deal like that, the Royals are stuck. We know they will only spend so much on the free agent market, so why throw a big chunk of what the team can afford at a guy who ideally is no better than a three? It doesn’t make sense.

Don’t let this hot streak fool you, and don’t be thrilled when, because of this hot streak, Moore offers Guthrie a two year contract at $8.5 million per year.Guthrie is on fire, no doubt. Since coming to KC, he’s been the best starting pitcher on the mound since

Kansas City Royals starting pitcher Luke Hochevar throws a pitch against the Tampa Bay Rays. Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement-US PRESSWIRE

Zack Greinke left town. Guthrie has gone 39 innings in six starts. He’s got a 3.23 ERA, 1.026 WHIP, and he striking out 7.2 batters per nine innings, while walking less than two. That’s all great, and that’s the kind of pitching we need to win this division. But don’t be fooled. This guy is not peaking at age 33. He’s not going to repeat these numbers.

I know, you’re thinking, “But he had some great years in Baltimore” (with the exception of one bad year where he posted an ERA of more than 5). Maybe he can repeat one or two of those years, especially in spacious Kauffman Stadium. But the facts are he’s not a high strikeout/low walk pitcher. He’s a career 5.5 K/9 and 2.7 BB/9 guy. That’s about two less strikeouts and a full walk more than what he’s averaging for the Royals. That’s not bad…but it’s not really swing and miss stuff. We need game changers at the front end, not Guthrie.

I’m not saying the guy is garbage (he’s far from it), and god bless DM for getting him for Sanchez, but do you want Dayton’s efforts to fix this rotation to fall on Guthrie? I don’t.

And of course, the publishing of this article comes just after Luke Hochevar throws a gem…can’t you hear it now? Dayton Moore is on the radio, once again telling Kansas City that Hochevar made an adjustment and has turned a corner. That Luke and Guthrie will lead the Kansas City rotation to the Promised Land. I’ve heard this before in regards to Hochevar, and I’m not buying. Not on either pitcher. Not this time.