Alex Rios and His Throwing Woes

Mandatory Credit: Tim Heitman-USA TODAY Sports

When Alex Rios signed a one-year deal with the Royals, many fans were not too pleased. Rios turns 34 soon, and is coming off a disappointing season at the plate and in the field. He battled injuries last year, and some people – myself included – think his nagging thumb and bum ankle were at least partially to blame for his struggles.

If his thumb is healed, Rios should be able to top the measly 4 dingers he hit in 2014 while with the Rangers, and one would hope that a healthy ankle could help him regain some of his lost productivity in the field. According to Defensive Runs Saved and Ultimate Zone Rating, Rios was 3 or 4 runs below average last year, which was a significant dropoff from his career norms.

However, it wasn’t just Rios’ legs that caused the defensive slump. His arm rated as 4 runs below average according to DRS, and 5.8 runs below average according to UZR. Prior to 2014, the only season in which Rios had a below average arm was 2012, but that was just 1 run below average.

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Now, defensive metrics should always be taken with a large helping of salt, so let’s dig deeper.

Rios had 6 assists last season, which is fewer than he had in both 2013 and 2012, but he also logged 400 fewer innings at the position due to the injury. So he was still able to throw out some runners, even if he wasn’t quite at his usual level.

While having a big arm to rack up assists is great, the best asset an outfielder can have is his perception in the eyes of opponents. It’s fun to see Alex Gordon throw somebody out at home, but sometimes it’s better if that runner realizes that testing Gordon is idiotic and stays at third. Sure, the out is nice, but all it takes is a bad hop or a poor tag, and the run can score. Deterrence is incredibly important.

To find out how well Rios scared runners away from advancing, I looked at his fielding statistics on Baseball Reference, where the site breaks down 5 different situations in which an outfielder can hold a runner:

– Single with man on 1st, holding him to 2nd.
– Single with man on 2nd, holding him to 3rd.
– Double with man on 1st, holding him to 3rd.
– Fly ball with man on 2nd, less than 2 outs.
– Fly ball with man on 3rd, less than 2 outs.

In total, Rios was the right fielder for 177 of these plays in 2014, and he held the runner from advancing 37.3% of the time. In 2013, his hold rate was 46.7%. In 2012, it was 46.1%. In other words, Rios lost about 10 percentage points in just one year. That’s not a good thing. Runners were being much more aggressive on balls to right field than they had been in the past, and while there can be some nuance to each play, the overall trend suggests baserunners simply weren’t afraid of Rios’ arm.

Breaking down things a bit further, we can see the specific situations in which Rios really struggled holding runners. Observe this nifty table:

[table id=13 /]

The samples for each situation in each year aren’t of equal size, but we can still see a few things stand out. Like the sac fly situations, because, yikes. Granted, there were only 16 of those situations in 2014, so it’s possible that all of those players advancing were just super fast, but when you factor in the other plays, we again are left with the conclusion that runners – and third base coaches – didn’t care about Rios’ ability (or lack thereof) to throw them out.

Perhaps opponents saw Rios wasn’t throwing the ball with as much zip and/or accuracy, so they chose to try and take the extra base more frequently. This is the easiest explanation for the awful hold rate on sac fly plays, since there aren’t as many factors at play.

When a player hits a single or double with a man on base, there are more variables at work, including where the ball was hit, how hard it was hit and at what angle, if there are any stadium quirks that would make fielding the ball more difficult, Rios’ positioning, and so on. There are so many things to account for, which makes blaming it all on poor throws a bit tougher.

It’s possible another cause was Rios’ injuries, again. If he wasn’t getting to as many balls as he used to, as quickly as he used to, then opposing coaches and baserunners wouldn’t need to worry as much about the throw because Rios would have less time to make the play. That sore ankle might have made his arm look worse than it actually was.

And even when Rios did make throws, his sore thumb may have affected his accuracy. I don’t know how much that could play a part, but it’s possible it was a factor. Or maybe it wasn’t. I’m neither a doctor nor an expert on throwing baseballs.

It’s also possible that Rios is simply declining due to aging. That would make some sense, considering he’s almost 34. That potential cause would be concerning for the Royals this season.

Maybe the real cause was a combination of everything. Rios is aging, he was hurt, and the scouting report suggested teams could be aggressive with him. If that’s the case, being healthy will help some, but he likely won’t be able to return to his prime from 2009 and before, when he consistently held runners at above a 55% clip.

Regardless of the cause, the Royals do have some insurance hanging around on the bench, in the form of Jarrod Dyson. I doubt the organization planned on paying $11 million for a player who will be replaced in the 6th or 7th inning every night, but at least they’d have the option if Rios’ arm doesn’t regain value in the field. The Royals hope that scenario doesn’t come to fruition, because their pitching staff will once again need the defense to be a key part of the run prevention unit.

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