Royals and Orioles: Very Similar, Except When They’re Not

Mandatory Credit: John Rieger-USA TODAY Sports

The Royals and Orioles are an interesting ALCS matchup for a variety of reasons. We all know about the teams’ histories, and how neither organization has seen any kind of sustained success since the 1980s. The winner of this series will likely be America’s darling against whatever shade of evil prevails in the NLCS, and I think both teams have already exceeded expectations for this season, meaning both fanbases shouldn’t be too disappointed with any result in the next 10 days.

But on the field, the two squads share several qualities, in all aspects of the game. They also have a few stark differences, which makes it all the more fascinating that both teams are in the exact same position right now. In anticipation of tomorrow night’s Game 1, I’d like to compare and contrast their traits in the space below to highlight how startlingly similar, yet drastically different, the two teams are.

Offensively, the biggest difference most people have mentioned is in the dinger department. The Orioles led all of baseball with 211 home runs (25 more than the 2nd place Rockies), while the Royals hit the fewest home runs, with 95. Power is not an area in which the Royals excelled, exhibited by their .113 isolated slugging percentage, which was the lowest in the league. Baltimore’s .166 ISO led the league. Four Orioles had more than 20 home runs, while zero Royals reached that mark.

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As you probably know, the Royals made hay on offense by slapping singles and running like crazy. They hit more than 100 more singles than the Orioles did, trailing only the Tigers in that category. Once on base, the Orioles tended to be mostly stationary until the ball was put in play, since they stole just 44 bases all year, which was the lowest total in baseball. The Royals, of course, stole the most bases in the game, with 153. No Oriole had more than 8 stolen bases, while 6 different Royals bested that number.

Despite those differences, the two offenses did some things in a similar way. Both teams were allergic to drawing walks, with the Orioles’ walk rate (6.5%) only outpacing the Royals’ (6.3%) in the AL. As you might imagine, that means both teams employ players who are unrepentant hackers. Orioles’ batters swung at 32.9% of pitches out of the strike zone, and their Royals’ counterparts did so 31.3% of the time.

Unlike the Royals’ propensity to make contact, though, the Orioles swung through a lot of pitches, with a swinging strike rate of 10.8%, tied for the second-highest rate in the league. The Royals whiffed at just 8.1% of the pitches they saw, third-lowest in the league.

Both managers also used the sacrifice bunt at about the same rate, regardless of any lazy media narrative to the contrary. The Royals laid down 33 sac bunts, while the Orioles did it 35 times. One might ask why a manager with a powerful, dinger-hitting offense would freely give away so many outs, but that’s another discussion for another time.

Both teams got on base at nearly the same clip, with the Royals checking in at .314, and the Orioles at .311, and their batting averages weren’t terribly different either – Royals at .263, Orioles at .256.

On the pitching side of the equation, neither rotation boasted any true strikeout pitchers. Orioles’ starters struck out 18.2% of the batters they faced, and the Royals’ starters did so at a 17.3% clip. Overall, the staffs were very similar in strikeout rate. The Royals at 19.1%, and the Orioles at 19.2%.

Their starters’ ERAs were nearly identical, as well, with the Royals at 3.60 and the Orioles at 3.61. Even adjusting for park factors, both rotations check in at an ERA- of 93. That number is lower than you’d expect from both teams’ peripherals, since the Royals’ and Orioles’ staffs had an xFIP of 107 and 109, respectively. I’ll get to a reason for that overperformance in a bit.

The pitching staffs are quite similar, but there are differences there, too. The Royals have a bit more velocity at their disposal, with an average fastball velocity nearly a mile per hour higher than the Orioles. In the bullpen, the difference is even more stark, with the Royals’ relievers averaging 94.2 MPH, and the Orioles coming in at 92 MPH.

Royals’ starters also did a better job of limiting walks, issuing free passes to 6.5% of the batters they faced. Orioles starters had a walk rate of 7.8%, which was the 4th-highest rate in the league.

Even though the two teams share so many qualities, it’s on defense where they may be the most alike. Both teams have elite defenders all over the diamond, which puts both units at the top of the league. In the outfield, the Orioles’ UZR/150 is 11.3, which would be the best in baseball if not for the Royals, who check in at 17.9. Since both pitching staffs induce fly balls on just under 36% of balls in play, that defense contributes to excellent run prevention.

Both teams boast terrific defenders at shortstop, and while the metrics differ on a few other positions, I think it’s fair to say the current defenses are on a similar level. They combined to win 6 Gold Gloves last year, and even with an injured Manny Machado, that number is within reach for 2014.

So there you have it. The two ALCS participants are basically the same team, except for all the areas in which they’re incredibly different. This series will feature contrasting styles, even if they aren’t quite as contrasting as you may have previously believed. Home runs, stolen bases, and terrific defense will be prevalent. Plate discipline, not so much.

This is a fascinating matchup, and because the two teams are fairly similar, it should be a closely-contested series. As playoff games typically are, these games will likely be decided by one team making one more play, or getting one more hit. Regardless of the outcome, it should be a lot of fun to watch, as both teams fight to advance to the World Series.