Jason Vargas’ Regression Coming at Most Inopportune Time

Mandatory Credit: David Richard-USA TODAY Sports

Regression is an undeniable part of baseball. Basically every player in baseball sees some kind of regression, whether that means someone like Nori Aoki becoming his old self by improving his production, or someone like Alcides Escobar sliding back to an offensive level more in line with his career norms. Regression has a way of catching up to everyone.

Unfortunately for the Royals, their $32 million dollar man is getting hit by regression at the worst time possible.

Jason Vargas was off to a terrific start to his 4-year contract with the Royals, throwing 125 innings in his first 19 starts, with a 3.31 ERA, 5.9 strikeouts per 9, and 2.1 walks per 9. He pitched at least 6 innings in all but 3 of those starts, which helped keep the Royals bullpen as fresh as possible.

As a pitcher who relies on weak contact, Vargas did a great job of limiting line drives (21.2% line drive rate) while also inducing popups at an above league average rate (10.7% infield fly ball rate). Vargas also gets a lot of fly balls, and the elite defenders behind him made sure to chase down as many batted balls as possible, keeping his BABIP to .285, right in line with his career average.

Most of Vargas’ numbers were actually close to his career norms, and yet, his ERA was nearly a full run lower. There may have been some good fortune, but Vargas was hitting his spots, and his defense was helping him out frequently.

But following his start on July 8, Vargas felt some pain in his midsection, and he ended up needing an appendectomy. The recovery process for that procedure forced him to miss almost an entire month. Now, I’m not a medical expert, but one may look at Vargas’ post-appendectomy production, and deduct that an appendix is the secret to above average pitching.

Or maybe Vargas simply ran into some regression.

In 11 starts since the beginning of August, Vargas has pitched 62 innings with a 4.50 ERA. He’s failed to throw 6 innings in each of his last 4 starts, and he’s missed that mark 6 times since coming back. Those short appearances have exposed the weaker part of the Royals’ bullpen, and as a result, the team has lost 7 of those games.

It hasn’t all been bad for Vargas, though. He did have a few great starts, including a 97-pitch shutout of the A’s, who were not a complete train wreck at the time. He’s also been missing more bats in the 2nd half, striking out 6.7 batters per 9, while still limiting walks. Vargas has usually been known as a pitcher who outperforms his peripherals, but in the last 11 starts, his 3.32 FIP is quite a bit more attractive than that 4.50 ERA.

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Vargas has limited home runs well, allowing only 5 in those 62 innings, but he’s been giving up harder contact overall, evidenced by a line drive rate of 26.5% and an infield fly ball rate of just 8.5%. That harder contact, combined with a defense that has had quite a few lapses recently, has helped drive Vargas’ BABIP up to .325. In his last 7 games, he’s allowed a BABIP of .362. Some of that is bad luck, but Vargas is causing some problems himself by catching too much of the plate.

Regression even was able to grab hold of Vargas’ excellent changeup. In the first half, opponents hit just .192 with a .287 slugging percentage against the pitch, but in his last 11 starts, batters are crushing it (relatively speaking) to the tune of a .247 average and .402 slugging percentage. It’s still an elite swing-and-miss pitch, but when batters are making contact, they’re doing a lot of damage. Once again, there could be some luck involved – or lack thereof, in this case – but Vargas hasn’t consistently had pinpoint command, and the defense has let him down on a few occasions.

In other words, regression is having its way with Vargas, and it’s doing so when the Royals are a few games away from the playoffs.

This recent stretch could invite questions about what the Royals should do with their playoff rotation, and whether or not Vargas should be a part of it. This discussion probably merits another post altogether, so I won’t delve too deeply into the topic, other than to say that Vargas is still the fourth best starter on the team, regardless of his appendix-less starts.

When Vargas was signed, fans knew he could be a solid middle of the rotation pitcher, although his inability to miss many bats would limit his ceiling. Perhaps his early season success made many people forget that, because for the season, I’d say Vargas has been exactly who we thought he would be. He’s pitched 187 innings with a 3.71 ERA, 4% better than the league average, according to ERA-. He’s a perfectly adequate number three starter, and he’s behind three other starters in the current rotation. Granted, you never like to see a pitcher struggle down the stretch, but a handful of rough starts haven’t really changed my opinion of Vargas.

The Royals can win with Jason Vargas in their playoff rotation, but they’ll be much better off once he can shake free from this recent battle with regression, and start delivering average starts once again.