Comments on: Real or Mirage: Royals Edition

By: jim fetterolf

jim fetterolf — Sun, 25 Mar 2012 23:07:22 +0000

@pthomp21 That brings him in at about Danny Espinoza range, but without the homers, 8th best 2B in the game and 3.5 fWAR. If Getzie matches that, we should probably dedicate a complete blog site to him. More reasonable is probably Robert Andino at .671 OPS and 1.8 WAR. The team could live with that. I expect Getz to hit 7th, where he has a career .790 OPS, or 9th with career .680 OPS. Where Getz does not hit well is 6th or higher, career .522 OPS on 260 PAs leading off.As for “changes”, I went through all this last year with the “worst outfield ever”, which built up my faith in Seitzer a little, as did what he did with Escobar the second half and with Billy, as well as the Moose.

By: pthomp21

pthomp21 — Sat, 24 Mar 2012 18:21:43 +0000

@somedevil04 Great finish there somedevil, great finish.

By: pthomp21

pthomp21 — Sat, 24 Mar 2012 18:20:22 +0000

@jim fetterolf Good points all. You’re probably right in saying that I overly criticized Getz. It has almost become as natural as breathing. That being said, it probably is tough for me to give any changes in his approach a fair shake.

I’ll make a deal, though: If he has an OPS above .700 by the end of April (in the majors; assuming 40 or more at-bats) I’ll dedicate an entire post to him.

By: somedevil04

somedevil04 — Sat, 24 Mar 2012 17:30:22 +0000

great article…unfortunately i think your assessment of Mous might be accurate..i hope it isn’t but i think it might be…i think chen will see improvement when they move north but im not sure improvement is enough…as for getz he’s probably a good guy and thats about all i can say concerning his baseball talent…if getz is our starting 2nd baseman the bottom third of our lineup will be a black hole filled with heartbreak and singles…like the life of a stripper

By: jim fetterolf

jim fetterolf — Sat, 24 Mar 2012 17:20:08 +0000

@michael.allen.engel Frenchy spent last winter with Mac-N-Seitz, as did Gordon both last winter and this winter working on swing and approach. Frenchy also, like Melky, dumped a bunch of weight. This winter Getz redid his stance and swing, went from a wide stance, permanent two-strike contact approach to a narrower stance, then loading and striding into the ball. He’s bigger than Mickey Mantle was, so should be able to put a little more charge into the ball. That’s the idea of the change, anyway. So far this spring he’s out hitting both Gio and Yuni.

As for his fielding, he is decidedly average. Baseball Reference had him as +3 Rtot/yr last season. Nothing too exciting except when compared to Giavotella’s -19 Rtot/yr. That’s a 2.2 WAR difference, very steep hill for a poor defender to make up for. David Lesky at Pine Tar opined that in one st game he saw Gio couldn’t get to three balls he should have had and that he gets poor jumps and poor angles. And oddly enough I’m having about this same discussion with David. Second base is a systemic weakness for the Royals, which is why they drafted Colon so high.

Not trying to pick on you, but about every stat oriented blogger has the same shtick on Getzie, who is this year’s poster child replacing the “worst outfield ever” predicted for last year of Frenchy, Melky, and “the bust” Gordon. Year before that it was Bruce Chen being dogged on his career stats. This off-season there was also a lot of noise about Luis Mendoza’s career before his reinvention into a 94mph sinkerball pitcher. My POV is that career stats don’t take the field and that substantive changes, whether positive ones of approach and swing or negative ones of injury, create inflection points in trends and need to be weighted for prediction. Roy Oswalt is a great example, his degenerative discs make his career numbers before two years ago worthless, just as Mike Sweeney’s discs did. The flip side could be Bruce Chen, whose reinvention of himself after a major injury made his history worthless.

By: michael.allen.engel

michael.allen.engel — Sat, 24 Mar 2012 04:08:56 +0000

@jim fetterolf I don’t think Francoeur changed anything about his swing or approach. Talent was always there and he hit in Texas. Gordon, well that’s been covered that of course he has the talent, showed it in the majors when healthy and made some adjustments, but they unveiled the skill that had already been there. Melky, yeah, weight loss and changes allowed him to do some damage.

But Getz isn’t going to change overnight. He wasn’t that talented at any point in the minors beyond being able to keep advancing and show good speed and contact. He’s never rated above average defensively according to John Dewan’s Fielding Bible. We can go around and around on Getz and the likelihood of “adjustments” but he’s one I’ll never buy it about.

By: jim fetterolf

jim fetterolf — Sat, 24 Mar 2012 04:04:37 +0000

Aside from the obligatory Getz snark, good piece. For what it is worth, Getz spent the winter changing swing and approach, just as the three outfielders did the year before and Escobar did in the middle of the last season, and it seems to be working. Given an average glove and improved hitting, as well as zero competition from the likely still hobbled Giavotella, Getz looks like the starting 2B.