Comments on: Why Luis Mendoza is Important to the 2012 Royals

By: Luis Mendoza: Smoke and Mirrors - Kings of Kauffman - A Kansas City Royals Fan Site - News, Blogs, Opinion and More

Sat, 03 Mar 2012 23:53:36 +0000

[...] The principle of regression to the mean comes into play. When a player vastly overperforms relative to their career production to that point, they usually snap back to that level. For Mendoza, that’s a decent starter or long reliever in the minors and maybe – maybe – a barely rosterable player at the end of the bullpen or a swingman as depth. [...]

By: eric.akers

eric.akers — Tue, 28 Feb 2012 04:56:47 +0000

The guy had too good a season to not give him a chance to be a starter, and if he makes it as the swing man, so be it. Also, if he doesn’t earn a spot, I do not feel so bad if he goes somewhere else because of his age either. But I feel that it is way too early to say he is not good enough to even be a number 5. He did not have a great SO numbers, but he does have nasty sinking movement which can make him effective.

By: davidwlowe

davidwlowe — Tue, 28 Feb 2012 01:15:02 +0000

@mmeade17 I feel you, bro. Looks like we both came to the same conclusion, though: a .500 season would be a good one.

By: davidwlowe

davidwlowe — Tue, 28 Feb 2012 01:12:26 +0000

@barkwellt Yes, that’s my dream scenario because I am realistic. I hope more than anyone that the starting pitchers will all have great years, but just like I said at the beginning of the season last year, it will depend on starting pitching.

But I do like your other dream scenarios, other than Adam Sandler movies.

By: mmeade17

mmeade17 — Mon, 27 Feb 2012 19:55:51 +0000

@davidwlowe No doubt, the White Sox for sure have a better rotation. The Twins’ rotation probably has a better track record, but talent wise may be around the same level as the Royals. I think Pavano’s 170 years old so how long can that last? I would call the Royals’ rotation average right now, maybe slightly below. Their numbers look pretty bad from last year, partly because Kyle Davies was pitching in that rotation and he’s worse than a scorching case of herpes. The rotation the Royals will probably run out there (Hochever, Chen, Sanchez, Paulino, Duffy) has tremendous potential. But I just don’t see them all reaching that potential. In fact, I think Sanchez will be traded mid-season, Chen will be less effective, Paulino has a good chance of being less effective, and Duffy and Hochevar may take a step forward. What’s that add up to? About .500, maybe slightly above.

Luckily, the Royals have 3 things the White Sox and Twins may not have … a dynamic offense, a good defense, and terrific bullpen. Those things help teams win too.

So, let’s not count them out for 2012 just yet. But let’s not start budgeting for playoff tickets either.

By: mmeade17

mmeade17 — Mon, 27 Feb 2012 19:46:17 +0000

@somedevil04 I prefer your spelling of the word “intriguing” (entriquing, what the hell is that?) to your wacky punctuation). But seriously, I watched Mendoza’s starts from September last night. He’s got really good sink on his fastball, a decent change, and a decent curve. He does a good job mixing up his pitches and working in on hitters. He occasionally leaves the ball up to much, but that’s not as big a deal in Kauffman with his movement. If I’m Ned Yost, I’d feel comfortable asking him to pitch 4 innings for me to get to the rest of the bullpen in a high scoring game or make a start here and there and give my team a chance to win. I like Teaford too as a swing man, but lets leave him in AAA for now and see if he doesn’t become a decent starter instead. He’s a little more valuable that way.

By: barkwellt

barkwellt — Mon, 27 Feb 2012 15:40:21 +0000

@davidwlowe Your “dream scenario” is .500? Who’s your “dream girl” – Tilda Swinton? “Dream date” – Applebees and an Adam Sandler movie? Dream vacation – Dollywood?

C’mon, man. Dream big. Pennant, January Jones, dinner at the Four Seasons, and a Pacific Island cruise aboard a luxury yacht.

By: davidwlowe

davidwlowe — Mon, 27 Feb 2012 03:54:53 +0000

I agree totally with your assessment of the Royals starting rotation. It’s weird to me that current polls on the Royals Review blog site has 80%-90% of Royals fans responding that the Royals are better than the Twins and White Sox for 2012. But just look at our projected starting rotations:

Royals:
Hochevar
Sanchez
Paulino
Chen
Duffy/Mendoza/Montgomery/Crow

White Sox:
Danks
Floyd
Peavy
Humber
Sale

Twins:
Pavano
Baker
Liriano
Swarzak
Marquis/Duensing

Looking just at the rotations, how can the Royals dream of competing? Chris Sale, the #5 starter of the White Sox, is better in my opinion than all five of our starters. The Twins starting five is very solid in my view…average, but solid.

Now the Royals hitting, in my opinion, will be one of the best in the league in 2012. This is why I don’t think the Royals can finish any better than .500 in 2012.

The dream scenario would be for the Royals to build on the 2011 campaign by finishing .500 in 2012 while allowing the young players to continue to develop. Guys like Duffy, Crow, Herrera, Montgomery, Adcock, Coleman, Jeffress, Teaford get a year more experience. Meanwhile, the offense mashes and causes the opposition to get nervous.

And down on the farm, hopefully we catch a break and some of our pitching prospects pan out and continue to move up the ladder and make decisions difficult for Dayton Moore. Guys like:

Jake Odorizzi
Noel Arguelles
Chris Dwyer
John Lamb
Tim Melville
Elisaul Pimentel
Yordano Ventura
Leonel Santiago
Greg Billo
Brooks Pounders
Leondy Perez
Will Smith
Justin Marks
Jason Adam
Robinson Yambati
Brian Brickhouse
Kyle Smith
Jake Junis

Very hopeful, but realistic, about the future for the Royals pitching staff!

David

By: somedevil04

somedevil04 — Sun, 26 Feb 2012 17:33:52 +0000

count one more in your growing throng of support for Mendoza as the swing man. Although, I also like Teaford for that role as well. Mendoza is certainly entriquing. The real issue will be if he kills it in spring training and Duffy or Paulino get shelled. I dont see either of those guys thriving in that role. They walk too many batters. It is a little odd but this rotation is crowded in a sense because there are so many guys with the same abiliy/potential level. We have 7 starters that would be 4/5 guys in a good rotation. lets hope there’s some improvement and we get 7 guys that would be 1/2/3 starters, but then again you know what they say about hope and crapping in ur hands (side note: look at my random punctuation…it’s wacky)