Comments on: Counting Chickens http://kingsofkauffman.com/2011/09/20/counting-chickens/ A Kansas City Royals Fan Site - News, Blogs, Opinion and More Thu, 29 Nov 2012 02:29:24 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.4.1 By: ChristianCamlin http://kingsofkauffman.com/2011/09/20/counting-chickens/#comment-5416 ChristianCamlin Thu, 22 Sep 2011 19:47:02 +0000 http://kingsofkauffman.com/?p=10419#comment-5416 Too much talent for all of it to take a step backwards at once.all of these kids have been through slumps and recovered.This was Gordons first full season this may be his new normal.Frenchy & Cabrera both swear that work with Seitzer has changed their skill levels.now of course 1 or 2 guys here will slump but it is a bit much to expect them all to do so simultaneously.That and the minor league system has ready replacements for any player who slips backward.This team will hit but needs a lot more pitching to contend. Too much talent for all of it to take a step backwards at once.all of these kids have been through slumps and recovered.This was Gordons first full season this may be his new normal.Frenchy & Cabrera both swear that work with Seitzer has changed their skill levels.now of course 1 or 2 guys here will slump but it is a bit much to expect them all to do so simultaneously.That and the minor league system has ready replacements for any player who slips backward.This team will hit but needs a lot more pitching to contend.

]]> By: ChristianCamlin http://kingsofkauffman.com/2011/09/20/counting-chickens/#comment-2019605 ChristianCamlin Thu, 22 Sep 2011 19:47:02 +0000 http://kingsofkauffman.com/?p=10419#comment-2019605 Too much talent for all of it to take a step backwards at once.all of these kids have been through slumps and recovered.This was Gordons first full season this may be his new normal.Frenchy & Cabrera both swear that work with Seitzer has changed their skill levels.now of course 1 or 2 guys here will slump but it is a bit much to expect them all to do so simultaneously.That and the minor league system has ready replacements for any player who slips backward.This team will hit but needs a lot more pitching to contend. Too much talent for all of it to take a step backwards at once.all of these kids have been through slumps and recovered.This was Gordons first full season this may be his new normal.Frenchy & Cabrera both swear that work with Seitzer has changed their skill levels.now of course 1 or 2 guys here will slump but it is a bit much to expect them all to do so simultaneously.That and the minor league system has ready replacements for any player who slips backward.This team will hit but needs a lot more pitching to contend.

]]> By: jim fetterolf http://kingsofkauffman.com/2011/09/20/counting-chickens/#comment-5413 jim fetterolf Thu, 22 Sep 2011 13:33:51 +0000 http://kingsofkauffman.com/?p=10419#comment-5413 @henrywiggen An average has to be established, so is meaningless for a young player, as Giavotella is learning, and moves over time, as the outfield is demonstrating, and can change as underlying circumstances change, re: Master Chen. An average is a useful historical stat but has less predictive value than trends and ranges do.As for breaking up the dream team in several years, that's why the organization reloads. Moose looks to have a special swing and power, young Prince Fielder hack, but Cheslor Cuthbert starts at A+ next year. We have a great OF, but also have Cain, Orlando, Prades, Fletcher, Starling, and Hernandez moving up. Behind Duffy is Monty with Odorizzi at AA, Arguelles A+, Billo at A, and some good looking draftees. The Royals organization got sick when Ewing Kaufman passed away and they went into a coma. They're awake, now, and should maintain success with a continuity of process and redevelopment of tradition. @henrywiggen An average has to be established, so is meaningless for a young player, as Giavotella is learning, and moves over time, as the outfield is demonstrating, and can change as underlying circumstances change, re: Master Chen. An average is a useful historical stat but has less predictive value than trends and ranges do.As for breaking up the dream team in several years, that’s why the organization reloads. Moose looks to have a special swing and power, young Prince Fielder hack, but Cheslor Cuthbert starts at A+ next year. We have a great OF, but also have Cain, Orlando, Prades, Fletcher, Starling, and Hernandez moving up. Behind Duffy is Monty with Odorizzi at AA, Arguelles A+, Billo at A, and some good looking draftees. The Royals organization got sick when Ewing Kaufman passed away and they went into a coma. They’re awake, now, and should maintain success with a continuity of process and redevelopment of tradition.

]]> By: jim fetterolf http://kingsofkauffman.com/2011/09/20/counting-chickens/#comment-2019602 jim fetterolf Thu, 22 Sep 2011 13:33:51 +0000 http://kingsofkauffman.com/?p=10419#comment-2019602 @henrywiggen An average has to be established, so is meaningless for a young player, as Giavotella is learning, and moves over time, as the outfield is demonstrating, and can change as underlying circumstances change, re: Master Chen. An average is a useful historical stat but has less predictive value than trends and ranges do.As for breaking up the dream team in several years, that's why the organization reloads. Moose looks to have a special swing and power, young Prince Fielder hack, but Cheslor Cuthbert starts at A+ next year. We have a great OF, but also have Cain, Orlando, Prades, Fletcher, Starling, and Hernandez moving up. Behind Duffy is Monty with Odorizzi at AA, Arguelles A+, Billo at A, and some good looking draftees. The Royals organization got sick when Ewing Kaufman passed away and they went into a coma. They're awake, now, and should maintain success with a continuity of process and redevelopment of tradition. @henrywiggen An average has to be established, so is meaningless for a young player, as Giavotella is learning, and moves over time, as the outfield is demonstrating, and can change as underlying circumstances change, re: Master Chen. An average is a useful historical stat but has less predictive value than trends and ranges do.As for breaking up the dream team in several years, that’s why the organization reloads. Moose looks to have a special swing and power, young Prince Fielder hack, but Cheslor Cuthbert starts at A+ next year. We have a great OF, but also have Cain, Orlando, Prades, Fletcher, Starling, and Hernandez moving up. Behind Duffy is Monty with Odorizzi at AA, Arguelles A+, Billo at A, and some good looking draftees. The Royals organization got sick when Ewing Kaufman passed away and they went into a coma. They’re awake, now, and should maintain success with a continuity of process and redevelopment of tradition.

]]> By: jim fetterolf http://kingsofkauffman.com/2011/09/20/counting-chickens/#comment-5412 jim fetterolf Thu, 22 Sep 2011 13:21:30 +0000 http://kingsofkauffman.com/?p=10419#comment-5412 @scobes15@henrywiggen I prefer "reloading" to "rebuilding". @scobes15@henrywiggen I prefer “reloading” to “rebuilding”.

]]> By: jim fetterolf http://kingsofkauffman.com/2011/09/20/counting-chickens/#comment-2019601 jim fetterolf Thu, 22 Sep 2011 13:21:30 +0000 http://kingsofkauffman.com/?p=10419#comment-2019601 @scobes15@henrywiggen I prefer "reloading" to "rebuilding". @scobes15@henrywiggen I prefer “reloading” to “rebuilding”.

]]> By: royal_in_cincinnati http://kingsofkauffman.com/2011/09/20/counting-chickens/#comment-5411 royal_in_cincinnati Thu, 22 Sep 2011 12:46:20 +0000 http://kingsofkauffman.com/?p=10419#comment-5411 @scobes15 I still believe Moustakas develops that 35-40 HR power, and plays a "passable" 3B. You might be right, with the complete emptiness of the C position Wieters would have been decent. And with what we have seen in 2011, the pitching can never be deep enough. I still don't think Moustakas was a mistake, but the others would have been good too. The MLB draft is such a crapshoot, it is very difficult to see who will pan out. Guillen was a BAD FA signing, but Meche was not. Just think if Meche's arm doesn't fall off in 2009, Greinke might have wanted to stay. We would have a happy Greinke in 2010, 2011, and 2012. By the time Meche's contract is up, Duffy, Monty, Odorizzi, and Lamb, Dwyer would be ready to go. Maybe Greinke gets extended again. That would have taken some pressure off of Hochevar, and the rest of the 2011 staff. Now I cannot defend Guillen in any fashion. They had a chance to get out of that contract when he tested positive for PEDs. @scobes15 I still believe Moustakas develops that 35-40 HR power, and plays a “passable” 3B. You might be right, with the complete emptiness of the C position Wieters would have been decent. And with what we have seen in 2011, the pitching can never be deep enough. I still don’t think Moustakas was a mistake, but the others would have been good too. The MLB draft is such a crapshoot, it is very difficult to see who will pan out.

Guillen was a BAD FA signing, but Meche was not. Just think if Meche’s arm doesn’t fall off in 2009, Greinke might have wanted to stay. We would have a happy Greinke in 2010, 2011, and 2012. By the time Meche’s contract is up, Duffy, Monty, Odorizzi, and Lamb, Dwyer would be ready to go. Maybe Greinke gets extended again. That would have taken some pressure off of Hochevar, and the rest of the 2011 staff. Now I cannot defend Guillen in any fashion. They had a chance to get out of that contract when he tested positive for PEDs.

]]> By: royal_in_cincinnati http://kingsofkauffman.com/2011/09/20/counting-chickens/#comment-2019600 royal_in_cincinnati Thu, 22 Sep 2011 12:46:20 +0000 http://kingsofkauffman.com/?p=10419#comment-2019600 @scobes15 I still believe Moustakas develops that 35-40 HR power, and plays a "passable" 3B. You might be right, with the complete emptiness of the C position Wieters would have been decent. And with what we have seen in 2011, the pitching can never be deep enough. I still don't think Moustakas was a mistake, but the others would have been good too. The MLB draft is such a crapshoot, it is very difficult to see who will pan out. Guillen was a BAD FA signing, but Meche was not. Just think if Meche's arm doesn't fall off in 2009, Greinke might have wanted to stay. We would have a happy Greinke in 2010, 2011, and 2012. By the time Meche's contract is up, Duffy, Monty, Odorizzi, and Lamb, Dwyer would be ready to go. Maybe Greinke gets extended again. That would have taken some pressure off of Hochevar, and the rest of the 2011 staff. Now I cannot defend Guillen in any fashion. They had a chance to get out of that contract when he tested positive for PEDs. @scobes15 I still believe Moustakas develops that 35-40 HR power, and plays a “passable” 3B. You might be right, with the complete emptiness of the C position Wieters would have been decent. And with what we have seen in 2011, the pitching can never be deep enough. I still don’t think Moustakas was a mistake, but the others would have been good too. The MLB draft is such a crapshoot, it is very difficult to see who will pan out.

Guillen was a BAD FA signing, but Meche was not. Just think if Meche’s arm doesn’t fall off in 2009, Greinke might have wanted to stay. We would have a happy Greinke in 2010, 2011, and 2012. By the time Meche’s contract is up, Duffy, Monty, Odorizzi, and Lamb, Dwyer would be ready to go. Maybe Greinke gets extended again. That would have taken some pressure off of Hochevar, and the rest of the 2011 staff. Now I cannot defend Guillen in any fashion. They had a chance to get out of that contract when he tested positive for PEDs.

]]> By: scobes15 http://kingsofkauffman.com/2011/09/20/counting-chickens/#comment-5408 scobes15 Wed, 21 Sep 2011 21:46:21 +0000 http://kingsofkauffman.com/?p=10419#comment-5408 @henrywiggen "People play to their average most of the time..." Yes, exactly my point. I want to be clear that I am in no way saying that next year will be another losing season, but in the Royals fans efforts to will this team to success for the first time in decades, they (we) continue to hold more value in the positives than the negatives that outweigh them. @henrywiggen “People play to their average most of the time…” Yes, exactly my point. I want to be clear that I am in no way saying that next year will be another losing season, but in the Royals fans efforts to will this team to success for the first time in decades, they (we) continue to hold more value in the positives than the negatives that outweigh them.

]]> By: scobes15 http://kingsofkauffman.com/2011/09/20/counting-chickens/#comment-2019598 scobes15 Wed, 21 Sep 2011 21:46:21 +0000 http://kingsofkauffman.com/?p=10419#comment-2019598 @henrywiggen "People play to their average most of the time..." Yes, exactly my point. I want to be clear that I am in no way saying that next year will be another losing season, but in the Royals fans efforts to will this team to success for the first time in decades, they (we) continue to hold more value in the positives than the negatives that outweigh them. @henrywiggen “People play to their average most of the time…” Yes, exactly my point. I want to be clear that I am in no way saying that next year will be another losing season, but in the Royals fans efforts to will this team to success for the first time in decades, they (we) continue to hold more value in the positives than the negatives that outweigh them.

]]> By: scobes15 http://kingsofkauffman.com/2011/09/20/counting-chickens/#comment-5407 scobes15 Wed, 21 Sep 2011 21:44:42 +0000 http://kingsofkauffman.com/?p=10419#comment-5407 @henrywiggen plus, "rebuilding" is a myth. But it's optimistically accepted with no real basis of definition. @henrywiggen plus, “rebuilding” is a myth. But it’s optimistically accepted with no real basis of definition.

]]> By: scobes15 http://kingsofkauffman.com/2011/09/20/counting-chickens/#comment-2019597 scobes15 Wed, 21 Sep 2011 21:44:42 +0000 http://kingsofkauffman.com/?p=10419#comment-2019597 @henrywiggen plus, "rebuilding" is a myth. But it's optimistically accepted with no real basis of definition. @henrywiggen plus, “rebuilding” is a myth. But it’s optimistically accepted with no real basis of definition.

]]> By: scobes15 http://kingsofkauffman.com/2011/09/20/counting-chickens/#comment-5406 scobes15 Wed, 21 Sep 2011 21:43:35 +0000 http://kingsofkauffman.com/?p=10419#comment-5406 @royal_in_cincinnati You and I just disagree with how long it would take to put together a .500 team. Sustainable winning? I can get that argument, kind of. There have misses in drafting (not sold on Moustakas over Wieters/Bumgarner) and free agency. And I think the negatives of what Dayton Moore have done get glossed over by the positives of J.J. Picollo. @royal_in_cincinnati You and I just disagree with how long it would take to put together a .500 team. Sustainable winning? I can get that argument, kind of. There have misses in drafting (not sold on Moustakas over Wieters/Bumgarner) and free agency. And I think the negatives of what Dayton Moore have done get glossed over by the positives of J.J. Picollo.

]]> By: scobes15 http://kingsofkauffman.com/2011/09/20/counting-chickens/#comment-2019596 scobes15 Wed, 21 Sep 2011 21:43:35 +0000 http://kingsofkauffman.com/?p=10419#comment-2019596 @royal_in_cincinnati You and I just disagree with how long it would take to put together a .500 team. Sustainable winning? I can get that argument, kind of. There have misses in drafting (not sold on Moustakas over Wieters/Bumgarner) and free agency. And I think the negatives of what Dayton Moore have done get glossed over by the positives of J.J. Picollo. @royal_in_cincinnati You and I just disagree with how long it would take to put together a .500 team. Sustainable winning? I can get that argument, kind of. There have misses in drafting (not sold on Moustakas over Wieters/Bumgarner) and free agency. And I think the negatives of what Dayton Moore have done get glossed over by the positives of J.J. Picollo.

]]> By: henrywiggen http://kingsofkauffman.com/2011/09/20/counting-chickens/#comment-5405 henrywiggen Wed, 21 Sep 2011 20:13:53 +0000 http://kingsofkauffman.com/?p=10419#comment-5405 I'm sorry but baseball, at this level, is just too hard. Nobody improves with training. Well... almost nobody. People play to their average most of the time, hit a ceiling, fall in a ditch, and always come back to their average. That's exactly why stats tell you so much about baseball. It would be wonderful if the developing players develop, but ask yourself how long you have waited and how long you will be willing to wait once they break up that dream team. I’m sorry but baseball, at this level, is just too hard. Nobody improves with training. Well… almost nobody. People play to their average most of the time, hit a ceiling, fall in a ditch, and always come back to their average. That’s exactly why stats tell you so much about baseball. It would be wonderful if the developing players develop, but ask yourself how long you have waited and how long you will be willing to wait once they break up that dream team.

]]> By: henrywiggen http://kingsofkauffman.com/2011/09/20/counting-chickens/#comment-2019595 henrywiggen Wed, 21 Sep 2011 20:13:53 +0000 http://kingsofkauffman.com/?p=10419#comment-2019595 I'm sorry but baseball, at this level, is just too hard. Nobody improves with training. Well... almost nobody. People play to their average most of the time, hit a ceiling, fall in a ditch, and always come back to their average. That's exactly why stats tell you so much about baseball. It would be wonderful if the developing players develop, but ask yourself how long you have waited and how long you will be willing to wait once they break up that dream team. I’m sorry but baseball, at this level, is just too hard. Nobody improves with training. Well… almost nobody. People play to their average most of the time, hit a ceiling, fall in a ditch, and always come back to their average. That’s exactly why stats tell you so much about baseball. It would be wonderful if the developing players develop, but ask yourself how long you have waited and how long you will be willing to wait once they break up that dream team.

]]> By: royal_in_cincinnati http://kingsofkauffman.com/2011/09/20/counting-chickens/#comment-5402 royal_in_cincinnati Wed, 21 Sep 2011 16:46:07 +0000 http://kingsofkauffman.com/?p=10419#comment-5402 I agree with your post for the most part. But like Jim said, this is Guillen, Jacobs, and Aviles we are talking about. Yes, some of the great seasons from Gordon or Cabrera or Francoeur may step back a little, but there is some hope. Their numbers this year don't exactly jive with the rest of their careers. But with better training and a better approach, they may have shifted their numbers. Even if they take small steps back, we "hope" that alot of the prospects take small steps forward. What did you mean by, "the royals could have (should have) been here two years ago? That is a little confusing to me. Moore was hired in 2006, with an almost completely barren farm system. With AAAA players all over the field. A payroll stuck around 40k. And no dominican/international scouting department. For Moore to have taken this team this far in 5 years is pretty good to me. I would hope they aren't done yet. Plaza Parade a couple of times from 2012-2016. I agree with your post for the most part. But like Jim said, this is Guillen, Jacobs, and Aviles we are talking about. Yes, some of the great seasons from Gordon or Cabrera or Francoeur may step back a little, but there is some hope. Their numbers this year don’t exactly jive with the rest of their careers. But with better training and a better approach, they may have shifted their numbers. Even if they take small steps back, we “hope” that alot of the prospects take small steps forward.

What did you mean by, “the royals could have (should have) been here two years ago? That is a little confusing to me. Moore was hired in 2006, with an almost completely barren farm system. With AAAA players all over the field. A payroll stuck around 40k. And no dominican/international scouting department. For Moore to have taken this team this far in 5 years is pretty good to me. I would hope they aren’t done yet. Plaza Parade a couple of times from 2012-2016.

]]> By: royal_in_cincinnati http://kingsofkauffman.com/2011/09/20/counting-chickens/#comment-2019592 royal_in_cincinnati Wed, 21 Sep 2011 16:46:07 +0000 http://kingsofkauffman.com/?p=10419#comment-2019592 I agree with your post for the most part. But like Jim said, this is Guillen, Jacobs, and Aviles we are talking about. Yes, some of the great seasons from Gordon or Cabrera or Francoeur may step back a little, but there is some hope. Their numbers this year don't exactly jive with the rest of their careers. But with better training and a better approach, they may have shifted their numbers. Even if they take small steps back, we "hope" that alot of the prospects take small steps forward. What did you mean by, "the royals could have (should have) been here two years ago? That is a little confusing to me. Moore was hired in 2006, with an almost completely barren farm system. With AAAA players all over the field. A payroll stuck around 40k. And no dominican/international scouting department. For Moore to have taken this team this far in 5 years is pretty good to me. I would hope they aren't done yet. Plaza Parade a couple of times from 2012-2016. I agree with your post for the most part. But like Jim said, this is Guillen, Jacobs, and Aviles we are talking about. Yes, some of the great seasons from Gordon or Cabrera or Francoeur may step back a little, but there is some hope. Their numbers this year don’t exactly jive with the rest of their careers. But with better training and a better approach, they may have shifted their numbers. Even if they take small steps back, we “hope” that alot of the prospects take small steps forward.

What did you mean by, “the royals could have (should have) been here two years ago? That is a little confusing to me. Moore was hired in 2006, with an almost completely barren farm system. With AAAA players all over the field. A payroll stuck around 40k. And no dominican/international scouting department. For Moore to have taken this team this far in 5 years is pretty good to me. I would hope they aren’t done yet. Plaza Parade a couple of times from 2012-2016.

]]> By: jim fetterolf http://kingsofkauffman.com/2011/09/20/counting-chickens/#comment-5399 jim fetterolf Tue, 20 Sep 2011 23:12:02 +0000 http://kingsofkauffman.com/?p=10419#comment-5399 Not sure how comparable 2008 and 2009 are with this year, a couple of teams full of retreads and 4-A players with the current team of 27 yr old and less legitimate prospects. That's Escobar at short, not Aviles, Hosmer at 1st instead of Mike Jacobs, and no Jose in sight. GMDM is building a team, from the bottom up, and looks good so far, with even more talent pushing up behind them. Not sure how comparable 2008 and 2009 are with this year, a couple of teams full of retreads and 4-A players with the current team of 27 yr old and less legitimate prospects. That’s Escobar at short, not Aviles, Hosmer at 1st instead of Mike Jacobs, and no Jose in sight. GMDM is building a team, from the bottom up, and looks good so far, with even more talent pushing up behind them.

]]> By: jim fetterolf http://kingsofkauffman.com/2011/09/20/counting-chickens/#comment-2019589 jim fetterolf Tue, 20 Sep 2011 23:12:02 +0000 http://kingsofkauffman.com/?p=10419#comment-2019589 Not sure how comparable 2008 and 2009 are with this year, a couple of teams full of retreads and 4-A players with the current team of 27 yr old and less legitimate prospects. That's Escobar at short, not Aviles, Hosmer at 1st instead of Mike Jacobs, and no Jose in sight. GMDM is building a team, from the bottom up, and looks good so far, with even more talent pushing up behind them. Not sure how comparable 2008 and 2009 are with this year, a couple of teams full of retreads and 4-A players with the current team of 27 yr old and less legitimate prospects. That’s Escobar at short, not Aviles, Hosmer at 1st instead of Mike Jacobs, and no Jose in sight. GMDM is building a team, from the bottom up, and looks good so far, with even more talent pushing up behind them.

]]> By: henrywiggen http://kingsofkauffman.com/2011/09/20/counting-chickens/#comment-5395 henrywiggen Tue, 20 Sep 2011 14:59:21 +0000 http://kingsofkauffman.com/?p=10419#comment-5395 Damn, this is good. Hope and change may be a good campaign slogan but it really sucks for a baseball team. Damn, this is good. Hope and change may be a good campaign slogan but it really sucks for a baseball team.

]]> By: henrywiggen http://kingsofkauffman.com/2011/09/20/counting-chickens/#comment-2019586 henrywiggen Tue, 20 Sep 2011 14:59:21 +0000 http://kingsofkauffman.com/?p=10419#comment-2019586 Damn, this is good. Hope and change may be a good campaign slogan but it really sucks for a baseball team. Damn, this is good. Hope and change may be a good campaign slogan but it really sucks for a baseball team.

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