To rescue 2011

To rescue 2011…

Yes, it’s still possible. Through several, chain-breaking outcomes, the 2011 fish can still be lured in and pulled out of the sea.

This year, the Major League Baseball All Star game will take place in Phoenix, Arizona. Like I say, there are many outcomes that can occur lending hand to a winning season. But by far, the most important outcome will not come at the end of the season. Instead, it comes before the All Star break. The Kansas City Royals need to get back to even before the halfway point. Not only will they enter the second half with an incredibly fresh slate but…

A)   It will instill a great amount of confidence back into the clubhouse

B)   The team will be in a division race in July, maybe August

C)   There is a legitimate reason for the team to continue bringing young talent up to the bigs.

The Royals have Major League Baseballs longest line of birthday gifts. If somehow this team can stay with the pack past July 11th, there is an argument to be made. One that argues the Royals have the easiest remainder of the season from a managerial standpoint. The decisions become extremely clear if this team is winning again in the next month.

They would be in a race. They would resemble a cohesive TEAM. Wherever a leak is spotted, young talent can arise to fill it. If the fill doesn’t seal the leak, there is room to bring in the next option, and so on- a legitimate back up of a backup. The Royals have the most depth in the game and harnessing that awareness in the last stretch of the season would easily become the most comforting feeling in the league- a feeling of security and certainty.

Royals at the break the past five years

2010- 39-49

2009- 37-51

2008- 43-53

2007- 38-50

2006- 31-56

Here is what needs to happen-

Twenty-Four games remain till July 11th. At that point, we have reached the All Star break and the so-called halfway point of the season.

Currently, the team trails an even record by seven games. Not as bad as we all expected. At the end of the break, the Royals will have played ninety-one total games. With the current record 30-37, that means the team will need to win at least fifteen of the next twenty-four to reach the .500 mark.

A look into some simplistic math-

30 current wins plus 15 future wins = 45 wins by July 11th

24 games remaining minus 15 wins = room for only 9 loses up until July 11th

The Royals must go at least 15 – 9. Can it be accomplished?

Here are the impending series conglomerates leading up to the July 11th deadline:

@ Oakland Athletics 

(2 games)

(28-40) 

last place in AL west

Royals need to win one of the two remaining games. Easy to do +1
@ Saint Louis Cardinals 

(3 games)

(38-30) 

tied first in NL central

Lets say the first place Cards destroy KC at home
Arizona Diamondbacks 

(3 games)

(37-31) 

1.5 out of first in NL west

Surprisingly tough team. Series at the K, lets say the Royals win two of three +2
Chicago Cubs 

(3 games)

(27-39) 

forth place in NL central

The Cubs stink. Royals take two of three +2
@ San Diego Padres 

(3 games)

(30-39) 

last place NL west

Royals are 9 – 17 on the road. Even though the Padres aren’t too intimidating, lets be realistic and say KC pulls off just one win. +1
@ Colorado Rockies 

(3 games)

(32-35) 

third place NL west

Yikes. Another series on the road? I don’t like playing the Rockies here. I would predict a sweep, but to remain optimistic lets give KC one win. +1
@ Chicago White Sox 

(3 games)

(33-35) 

third place AL central

Oh boy. Bring out the brooms sox fans.
Detroit Tigers 

(4 games)

(37-30) 

first place AL central

Team looks to finish strong, takes three of four from Detroit at home to end the first half. +3

Now as you can see, I tried to remain as realistic as possible. Here and there I tossed in a nudge of optimism. Even after that, I could only rack up ten wins in the next twenty-four!

If that is the case, the Royals will pause midway with a dull record of 40 – 51. That is my honest prediction…

WHAT IS YOURS?

 

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  • ed kranepool

    12-12 over the next 24.

  • jim fetterolf

    43-48 looks good. Pitching is inconsistent, but the line-up is solid, top six hitters productive and with power, Treanor and Getz good OBP and situational, Esky heating up. The defense is good,Moose being the weak link at the moment. If starters can deliver at least half quality starts, the team can go on a tear.

  • Eric

    Considering the entire line up is hitting well again and Soria seems to be his former self. This puts the Royals in position to repeat their early season recipe for success: hold on until the late innings, and one of the best bullpens in baseball combines with solid hitting to bring home more wins than expected.

    OAK: 2 SWEEP the struggling As
    STL: 1
    AZ: 2
    CHC: 2
    SDP: 2 Royals are enjoying California this year
    COL: 1
    CWS: 2
    DET: 1

    13-11 (43-48) (things could break better or worse than this depending on how the starters hold up. Worst case, 10 wins, best case, 16)

    That last series is going to be the key. If they do play well before then, they know they’ll need that series to close the gap. If they can manage to get the best of Detroit, then they’ll be in the race. If not, the deflation of losing, carrying over the break could sound the end of the race.

    • Mitch Hall

      EITHER WAY, carving a path to 15 wins is nearly impossible…I would love to see at least one win in STL, but the Cards are angry right now and won’t make it easy for us.

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