Comments on: When the Hope of Prospects Becomes a Liability

By: Gus

Gus — Fri, 10 Jun 2011 16:53:32 +0000

Good blog post. I agree that based on the numbers, Moose’s weakness is strike zone judgement. He’s obviously going to put up good power numbers in his career, but big league pitchers will be quick to figure out he’ll chase pitches out of the zone. His BA and OBP numbers aren’t going to be stellar in the short term…

By: henry wiggen

henry wiggen — Thu, 19 May 2011 20:18:22 +0000

Whoa! Your opinion is never enhanced by bad manners, Ben. So, slow down a bit. You present some compelling numbers but they just point to trends. Scobee’s point is that the distance between Omaha and Kansas City is a lot greater than many fans realize. If you’ve followed baseball a while, you can count the enormous number of flameouts so you know, or should know, a prospect is NEVER a sure thing. Ask Billy Beane, a classic flameout. That’s why Billy Beane approaches baseball on a purely cost/benefit/risk basis, which is all Scobee is talking about. What baffles me sometimes is that some fans just don’t want to consider the possibilities. When they bring the Moose up, we’ll see. Seems like I remember the same mania for a certain left handed power hitting first baseman who is now back in Omaha. And for Mr. Gordon as well… let’s hope he’s grown into the major leagues. It’s a hard game. Scobee might be right; might be wrong … but when you resort to vitriol, you lose.

By: Kevin Scobee

Kevin Scobee — Thu, 19 May 2011 19:30:52 +0000

Wally, the point isn’t really to single out Moustakas, although I don’t really believe in him as a star player given everything I’ve read and seen (albeit seen first hand a very, very small sample), but more to touch on the philosophy of selling high on a player while consensus industry opinion thinks his ceiling is very high.

If all Moustakas has to be is “good”, well, for all DM’s faults he’s proven he can find a good 3B’man for very little, like he did with Betemit.

We don’t know what the landscape of the Central will look like in 2018, we know what it will look like for the next couple of years with aging rosters in Minnesota, Chicago, and Detroit. From a purely philosophical standpoint of how to manage and acquire talent, I would much rather take my shots sooner than later.

By: Kevin Scobee

Kevin Scobee — Thu, 19 May 2011 19:24:27 +0000

Thanks for reading!!

By: benjammin

benjammin — Thu, 19 May 2011 19:21:22 +0000

scobee, ….my god you are embarrassing. Your stupid article is so full of holes, i dont know where to begin. Moose has taken huge steps this season and you dont have to dig deep to see them. His biggest problems coming into 2011? Major question markes against lefties, and the ability to consistantly get on base. Ok, first off, Moose has always started slow in April, so lets look at those numbers: April: .229/.304/.410 in 83 abs…Ok, now May: .339/.424/.66l in 56 abs so far. Moose also is on pace for a career high 60 bb so he is clearly taking to coaching and making the correct adjustments in order to get on base. Now the biggest and best news. Against Lefties this year: .260/.339/.580 !!!! (righties: .281/.363/.474) He is actually BETTER and more productive against Lefties!!! Picollo said, and is right, that Moose is ready for the Bigs RIGHT NOW he just lacks an opportunity. (todays interview with petro on 810).You need to do your homework before you spout your baseless opinions. You really are embarrassing yourself and this website.

By: Wally Fish

Wally Fish — Tue, 17 May 2011 18:31:01 +0000

Kevin,
I agree that the Royals are going to have to move some pieces down the road, but I think they need to wait until the “1st wave” starts taking hold to see where they stand. They also need to wait and see how the 2nd and 3rd waves are setting up as that will play into the moves they choose to make in the next several years.

Trading Moose right now would be a huge mistake IMO because he has something guys like Brandon Wood never had. His ELITE bat speed gives him a special tool that can’t be taught. You don’t trade guys like that unless you absolutely have to.

Mike should and will contribute to this team in the near future. He might not be one of the guys they sign long term but he’s definitely a key part of the puzzle until he starts getting expensive. Given all the talent they have coming up (and 50% of it will likely fail) Moose doesn’t have to be great – he just has to be good.

By: Kevin Scobee

Kevin Scobee — Tue, 17 May 2011 04:20:11 +0000

Thanks for reading!

By: Kevin Scobee

Kevin Scobee — Tue, 17 May 2011 04:17:26 +0000

First, Jim, let me thank you for commenting in a respectful manner that always adds something to the conversation. You’re on these pages a lot, and even though I can only speak for myself, I’m sure the rest of the staff at KoK appreciates your thoughts.

Here’s the basis of my thought process: I don’t think Moustakas is going to be all the great a player. The warning signs are there for someone bound to, not necessarily “flop” in the big leagues, but not enjoy success at the level we’re all expecting of him. Some scouting guys, like Goldstein, love him. Some, like Keith Law, have expressed their concerns. I guess mainly it would fall in line with wherever your thoughts of scouts vs stats fall. I’d like to see more walks, but that’s just me.

And I’m not saying “overpriced”. I just don’t think you can have a roster full of 1 and 2 year players and make a run at a division – and that’s how long we know this window is open. We don’t know what the window will look like in ’18, so take advantage of this opportunity, by trading a player whose stock may very well never be higher. Again, this is all based on the fact that I just don’t see as much in Moustakas.

Plus, I really like Wilson Betemit, and the difference between him for two more years and a proven, dominant starting pitcher, is greater than Moustakas for the next two years and another product of the system. “IMHO”.

That being said, I can see where you’re coming from. If it ain’t broke, don’t fix it. And The Process, at this point, I guess, isn’t broke.

By: JamIe Smith

JamIe Smith — Tue, 17 May 2011 03:42:52 +0000

I think the LAofA are a poor comparison for the current Royals. The Angels did not fail with their minor league system. They have been a competitive team for years. Were they going to trade top prospects while they were and continue to be a competitive team? The Royals could only dream of the success the Angels have had over the last decade and still have a competitive team. The Angels ownership has also spent money on free agents.

I think the Royals are a much better comparison to the the Twins or Rays. Pretty wasted article IMHO.

By: jim fetterolf

jim fetterolf — Tue, 17 May 2011 02:28:37 +0000

Not an obvious replacement for Moooose at the moment, so no trade. Royals have some obvious holes in their system and the problem the team has the last few weeks is that they can’t hit RHP, so lose 3-0, 3-1, or 3-2. An overpriced veteran coming in, unless he’s Verlander, won’t be worth more than a few wins and will burn money needed to keep prospects in ’18. Better is to trade Butler or Soria, both of whom we have replacements for, to try to get an SS and 2B who can hit and some more A and AA prospects to reload the minors.

Royals are surprisingly at .500, five games better than I expected, so I see the Process working just fine and think we let it play out.