Comments on: Can the Royals Sustain Their Success? http://kingsofkauffman.com/2011/04/22/can-the-royals-sustain-their-success/ A Kansas City Royals Fan Site - News, Blogs, Opinion and More Thu, 29 Nov 2012 02:29:24 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.4.1 By: jim fetterolf http://kingsofkauffman.com/2011/04/22/can-the-royals-sustain-their-success/#comment-4797 jim fetterolf Sat, 23 Apr 2011 16:28:10 +0000 http://kingsofkauffman.com/?p=8258#comment-4797 Great site, kind of supports what I would guess and suggests that Butler and Gordon aren't doing anything unsustainable, with the line drives and ability to take a walk, while Francouer, with fly balls, grounders, and low walks, is probably getting a little lucky and can be expected to revert, hopefully no more than to a .280ba with occasional home runs. Thanks. Great site, kind of supports what I would guess and suggests that Butler and Gordon aren’t doing anything unsustainable, with the line drives and ability to take a walk, while Francouer, with fly balls, grounders, and low walks, is probably getting a little lucky and can be expected to revert, hopefully no more than to a .280ba with occasional home runs. Thanks.

]]> By: Michael Engel http://kingsofkauffman.com/2011/04/22/can-the-royals-sustain-their-success/#comment-4795 Michael Engel Sat, 23 Apr 2011 01:39:38 +0000 http://kingsofkauffman.com/?p=8258#comment-4795 Generally, line drives are about 3 times more likely to become hits than fly balls or grounders. http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/groundballs-flyballs-and-line-drives/ Generally, line drives are about 3 times more likely to become hits than fly balls or grounders. http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/groundballs-flyballs-and-line-drives/

]]> By: jim fetterolf http://kingsofkauffman.com/2011/04/22/can-the-royals-sustain-their-success/#comment-4793 jim fetterolf Sat, 23 Apr 2011 00:44:49 +0000 http://kingsofkauffman.com/?p=8258#comment-4793 I guess my question was/is, is it better, BABIP-wise, to hit grounders, line drives, or fly balls? I would think one reason for Gordon and Butler hitting so well is they both have fairly flat swings and square up more pitches than not, so I would assume a better BABIP. Francouer seems to have a lot of seeing-eye grounders, so should be less sustainable. For the pitchers, Chen tends to get pop-ups and weak flies off his pitches, which are easier to field, so his numbers would look relatively good. He gets those from the movement on his pitches and keeping hitters off balance. That should be sustainable. Haven't actually seen Francis. I guess my question was/is, is it better, BABIP-wise, to hit grounders, line drives, or fly balls? I would think one reason for Gordon and Butler hitting so well is they both have fairly flat swings and square up more pitches than not, so I would assume a better BABIP. Francouer seems to have a lot of seeing-eye grounders, so should be less sustainable. For the pitchers, Chen tends to get pop-ups and weak flies off his pitches, which are easier to field, so his numbers would look relatively good. He gets those from the movement on his pitches and keeping hitters off balance. That should be sustainable. Haven’t actually seen Francis.

]]> By: Jeff Herr http://kingsofkauffman.com/2011/04/22/can-the-royals-sustain-their-success/#comment-4792 Jeff Herr Fri, 22 Apr 2011 22:30:38 +0000 http://kingsofkauffman.com/?p=8258#comment-4792 To answer your questions on BABIP, no not all balls hit in play are created equal. Rather, not all hitters who hit balls in play are created equal. Top level hitters consistently have a solid BABIP with players like Joe Mauer and Ichiro hitting .340+. Poor hitters generally still fall around the .300 mark unless they are not major league caliber hitters in which they will be well below. The idea is that a good hitter can pick his spots and has more control over his hitting and hits more line drives as opposed to pop-ups which allow him to get on base more. The numbers Butler is putting up are more sustainable due to the type of hitter he is, but Gordon and Francoeur probably can't sustain the level they're at. How much they'll dip, who knows. I agree on Francis and Chen. I especially think Francis can keep it rolling, but I expect Chen's numbers to digress a little bit. Not to the point where they're worse than last year and they'll probably be better, but I don't think he is going to carry a below 3.00 ERA all season. I agree that the biggest weakness defensively is 3B, even if Moustakas comes up he has the glove to be an average to a slightly above average MLB 3B, however, his plus arm will make up for some of his glove deficiencies. I also think catcher is a weakness, Treanor is decent defensively, but gives very little at the plate and is aging. The system is weak down there as well with Perez being the only major prospect, although all signs are point to him being quite a success defensively. It will be exciting to see how the roster fills out when these young guys start coming up. To answer your questions on BABIP, no not all balls hit in play are created equal. Rather, not all hitters who hit balls in play are created equal. Top level hitters consistently have a solid BABIP with players like Joe Mauer and Ichiro hitting .340+. Poor hitters generally still fall around the .300 mark unless they are not major league caliber hitters in which they will be well below. The idea is that a good hitter can pick his spots and has more control over his hitting and hits more line drives as opposed to pop-ups which allow him to get on base more. The numbers Butler is putting up are more sustainable due to the type of hitter he is, but Gordon and Francoeur probably can’t sustain the level they’re at. How much they’ll dip, who knows.

I agree on Francis and Chen. I especially think Francis can keep it rolling, but I expect Chen’s numbers to digress a little bit. Not to the point where they’re worse than last year and they’ll probably be better, but I don’t think he is going to carry a below 3.00 ERA all season.

I agree that the biggest weakness defensively is 3B, even if Moustakas comes up he has the glove to be an average to a slightly above average MLB 3B, however, his plus arm will make up for some of his glove deficiencies. I also think catcher is a weakness, Treanor is decent defensively, but gives very little at the plate and is aging. The system is weak down there as well with Perez being the only major prospect, although all signs are point to him being quite a success defensively. It will be exciting to see how the roster fills out when these young guys start coming up.

]]> By: jim fetterolf http://kingsofkauffman.com/2011/04/22/can-the-royals-sustain-their-success/#comment-4791 jim fetterolf Fri, 22 Apr 2011 22:15:08 +0000 http://kingsofkauffman.com/?p=8258#comment-4791 A couple of questions on BABIP; are all balls in play created equally and do better hitters consistently beat .300 BABIP while worse hitters underachieve? In the case of Butler and Gordon, they are hitting the ball hard, line-drives in the gaps and down the line. Frenchy may be flukey with the number of infield singles he gets, but Gordon and Butler seem to be crushing the ball with Butler protecting Gordon. On Francis and Chen, both seem sustainable, as Francis seems healthy and Chen is continuing his second half of last year. Hoch and Davies are capable of putting up a fairly consistent five innings of two runs before the wheels fall off, Hoch may get better, Davies probably not, but both can be managed for with a deep, strong bullpen, Wood and Coleman giving the opportunity to each work two innings twice a week and bridging to Crow, Collins, Jeffress, and Soria. Whole team looks sustainable, major weakness being 3B defense. A couple of questions on BABIP; are all balls in play created equally and do better hitters consistently beat .300 BABIP while worse hitters underachieve? In the case of Butler and Gordon, they are hitting the ball hard, line-drives in the gaps and down the line. Frenchy may be flukey with the number of infield singles he gets, but Gordon and Butler seem to be crushing the ball with Butler protecting Gordon.

On Francis and Chen, both seem sustainable, as Francis seems healthy and Chen is continuing his second half of last year. Hoch and Davies are capable of putting up a fairly consistent five innings of two runs before the wheels fall off, Hoch may get better, Davies probably not, but both can be managed for with a deep, strong bullpen, Wood and Coleman giving the opportunity to each work two innings twice a week and bridging to Crow, Collins, Jeffress, and Soria. Whole team looks sustainable, major weakness being 3B defense.

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