Comments on: Kings of Kauffman Prospect Rankings: #3 Mike Moustakas

By: Michael Engel

Michael Engel — Mon, 28 Feb 2011 03:16:53 +0000

Here we go
http://firstinning.com/players/Mike-Moustakas-a/

Moose hasn’t hit as many grounders as Billy when he puts it in play – Butler’s around 47-48% for his career. Moose’s peak is 42%. Their LD% is about the same so that’s about 6% more FB for Moose (estimated). Over time, if that’s 40% of flyballs over 600 AB and 10% leave the yard, that’s around 24 HR.

(all crude calculations and estimates – don’t know Moose’s HR/FB at a glance)

By: Michael Engel

Michael Engel — Sun, 27 Feb 2011 19:43:20 +0000

I’m still trying to find a site with split statistics for minor leaguers. Minorleaguesplits.com has been more or less defunct since last offseason (though there are indecipherable xls files leftover). I can’t imagine Moustakas is carrying a near-50% GB rate like Butler over his career. Also, Butler just might not have the raw power we expect – all but one of his homers last season went to left-field and the one that went to right hit the RF foul pole I believe, so it was just barely.
When he uncorks on one, it goes a long way but he either doesn’t try to put it out or it hasn’t developed – the two times he’s had more than 20 homers anywhere came in 2009 with 21 and in 92 games with High Desert. Moose has significantly more raw power but won’t have the average, so that’s the tradeoff. I think 25 is more than reasonable to expect; maybe not in 2011 but in a full 2012? Sure.

By: Daniel

Daniel — Sun, 27 Feb 2011 19:13:18 +0000

Even Billy Butler managed to hit 9 HR in Kauffman last year. I think Moustakas can hit even more than that, plus another 10-15 on the road. That would put him at 25 at the minimum… I think you’re being way to pessimistic.

By: danny

danny — Sun, 27 Feb 2011 18:31:44 +0000

i’m talking all year numbers, including the other 81

i know he can crush it, i am just trying not to get my hopes up

By: Daniel

Daniel — Sun, 27 Feb 2011 03:08:27 +0000

Whoa… how does struggling to hit the ball out of Kauffman translate into .250 with 20 HRs? You know they get to play 81 games on the road…

By: danny

danny — Sat, 26 Feb 2011 15:26:32 +0000

Kauffman is a huge park..

Won’t Moose struggle to hit it out of the park there too??

Billy Butler, though he hits into too many double plays, has such a solid line drive bat, that it seems the way he swings is how to swing at Kauffman.

Fly ball hitters, like Moose and Kila, seem to have a lot of trouble in Kauffman, no matter how well they have swung the bat in Arkansas and Omaha.

I would love to be optimistic, because with any other team, say the Reds, or Red Sox.. these two would crush the ball.

But at Kauffman, I’m reduced to thinking they’ll be hitting sub .250 and hitting right around 20 HRs a year, no matter how big their bat projects.

Please prove me wrong, Moose.