Buck Equals Olivo?
By Wally Fish
On Wednesday I was listening to Sports Radio 810 WHB as I do every day I am in the office. Most days when Between the Lines comes on I turn off the internet broadcast and enjoy the last several hours of my day without my headphones on. I was about to turn it off as usual, when Kevin Kietzman and Danny Clinkscale started discussing John Buck and Miguel Olivo. Their basic message was that John Buck and Miguel Olivo were basically the same player, except that Olivo runs better. I was so shocked to hear such lunacy that I had to give myself a few days before I reacted so I could do so in a somewhat coherent and rational matter.
So here it is, three days later, my attempt to dispel the John Buck myth. It is a myth widely held by many Royals fans. It a myth that I once believed in until a fateful day when I went to the stats in an attempt to defend John Buck from one of my Buck-bashing friends. I assumed his hatred was unfounded and I could easily bring him to the realization that John Buck is just fine as a starting Major League catcher.
Let’s start with offensive numbers of Miguel Olivo:
AB
R
2B
3B
HR
RBI
SB
BA
OBP
SLG
OPS+
2002
19
2
1
0
1
5
0
.211
.286
.421
84
2003
317
37
19
1
6
27
6
.237
.287
.360
68
2004
301
46
15
4
13
40
7
.233
.286
.439
86
2005
267
30
11
1
9
34
7
.217
.246
.367
64
2006
430
52
22
3
16
58
2
.263
.287
.440
87
2007
452
43
20
4
16
60
3
.237
.262
.405
72
2008
306
29
22
0
12
41
7
.255
.278
.444
91
Career
2092
239
110
13
73
265
32
.241
.275
.411
78
Next the offensive numbers of John Buck:
AB
R
2B
3B
HR
RBI
SB
BA
OBP
SLG
OPS+
2004
238
36
9
0
12
30
1
.235
.280
.424
79
2005
401
40
21
1
12
47
2
.242
.287
.389
79
2006
371
37
21
1
11
50
0
.245
.306
.396
80
2007
347
41
18
0
18
48
0
.222
.308
.429
90
2008
370
48
23
1
9
48
0
.224
.304
.365
79
Career
1727
202
92
3
62
223
5
.234
.298
.398
82
From the above, we see that Olivo has a slight advantage in career SLG and BA, he has hit a HR every 28.7 at bats, and has a significant advantage in terms of running ability. Buck has a slight advantage in career OBP and he has hit a HR every 27.9 at bats. Their career OPS+ numbers match up very well. Looking at their career numbers, you would think that comments of Kietzman and Clinkscale were pretty much accurate. However, when you look at 2008, the only year they were both with the Royals, there is a bit of separation. While Buck holds the advantage in OBP by .026, Olivo’s advantage in SLG is 0.79 and his advantage in OPS+ is 12. It could be just a matter of splitting hairs since they are relatively close, but Olivo is a better offensive player than John Buck.
What a catcher does with his glove is at least every bit as important as what he does with the bat, so lets take a look at their defensive numbers.
Miguel Olivo:
FP
RF9
lgRF9
Inn
PB
SB
CS
CS%
CERA
2002
1.000
5.96
6.97
48.3
2
1
1
50.0
2003
.988
7.76
6.79
848
8
34
19
35.8
2004
.991
6.39
7.12
760.3
13
32
17
34.7
2005
.983
6.97
6.99
690
7
32
14
30.4
2006
.991
7.38
7.37
971.3
10
48
30
38.5
2007
.986
7.73
7.39
990.3
16
51
25
32.9
2008
.988
7.47
7.26
494.3
4
19
14
42.4
4.42
Career
.988
7.30
7.16
4802.7
60
217
120
35.6
John Buck:
FP
RF9
lgRF9
Inn
PB
SB
CS
CS%
CERA
2004
.992
6.10
7.12
575
6
30
14
31.8
2005
.996
6.40
6.80
976.7
3
60
31
34.1
2006
.991
6.31
7.09
930.3
5
33
17
34.0
2007
.989
7.07
7.28
924.3
3
44
12
21.4
2008
.990
7.34
7.26
950.3
4
59
12
16.9
4.55
Career
.991
6.69
7.11
4356.7
21
226
86
27.6
They are close in their fielding percentages, but their similarities end there. First, Olivo holds a significant advantage in terms of range factor. For his career he is 0.14 above league average (lgRF9), while John Buck for his career is 0.42 below league average. Second, Olivo’s CS% is 8% better than John Buck’s CS%. When you look at Buck’s downward trending numbers at throwing runners out and Olivo’s relatively consistent returns in throwing out runners there is no comparison between the two. Finally, when you add Olivo’s CERA (catcher’s ERA) advantage of 0.13 it is no contest.
While they may be relatively similar with the bat in their hands, Olivo is far superior than John Buck behind the plate. Both players are in the prime of their careers, Olivo is 30 and Buck is 28.
Clinkscale and Kietzman can have John Buck. I’ll take Miguel Olivo over him any day of the week and at the end of the season, my team will be the one with the better catcher, and more wins.